scholarly journals Seasonal stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018 derived from several merged data sets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika E. Szeląg ◽  
Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽  
Doug Degenstein ◽  
Chris Roth ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Seasonal Dependence

Abstract. In this work, we analyse the seasonal dependence of ozone trends in the stratosphere using four long-term merged datasets: SAGE-CCI-OMPS, SAGE-OSIRIS-OMPS, GOZCARDS and SWOOSH which provide more than 30 years of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles in the stratosphere. We focus here on trends between 2000 and 2018. All datasets show similar results, although some discrepancies are observed. In the upper stratosphere, the trends are positive throughout all seasons and the majority of latitudes. The largest upper stratospheric ozone trends are observed during local winter (up to 6 % dec−1) and equinox (up to 3 % dec−1) at mid-latitudes. In the equatorial region, we find a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends at all altitudes: the trends vary from positive to negative, with the sign of transition depending on altitude and season. The trends are negative in the upper stratospheric winter (−1 to −2 % dec−1) and in the lower stratospheric spring (−2 to −4 % dec−1), but positive (2–3 % dec−1) at 30–35 km in spring, while the opposite pattern is observed in summer. The tropical trends below 25 km are negative and maximize during summer (up to −2 % dec−1) and spring (up to −3 % dec−1). In the lower mid-latitude stratosphere, our analysis indicates hemispheric asymmetry: during local summers and equinoxes, positive trends are observed in the South (+1 to +2 % dec−1) while negative trends are observed in the North (−1 to −2 % dec−1). We compare the seasonal dependence of ozone trends with available analyses of the seasonal dependence of stratospheric temperature trends. We find that ozone and temperature trends show positive correlation in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere, and negative correlation above 30 km, where photochemistry dominates. Seasonal trend analysis gives information beyond that contained in annual mean trends, which can be helpful in order to better understand the role of dynamical variability in short-term trends and future ozone recovery predictions.

scholarly journals Seasonal stratospheric ozone trends over 2000–2018 derived from several merged data sets

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 7035-7047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika E. Szeląg ◽  
Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽  
Doug Degenstein ◽  
Chris Roth ◽  
Sean Davis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Equatorial Region ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Opposite Pattern ◽  
The North ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Seasonal Dependence

Abstract. In this work, we analyze the seasonal dependence of ozone trends in the stratosphere using four long-term merged data sets, SAGE-CCI-OMPS, SAGE-OSIRIS-OMPS, GOZCARDS, and SWOOSH, which provide more than 30 years of monthly zonal mean ozone profiles in the stratosphere. We focus here on trends between 2000 and 2018. All data sets show similar results, although some discrepancies are observed. In the upper stratosphere, the trends are positive throughout all seasons and the majority of latitudes. The largest upper-stratospheric ozone trends are observed during local winter (up to 6 % per decade) and equinox (up to 3 % per decade) at mid-latitudes. In the equatorial region, we find a very strong seasonal dependence of ozone trends at all altitudes: the trends vary from positive to negative, with the sign of transition depending on altitude and season. The trends are negative in the upper-stratospheric winter (−1 % per decade to −2 % per decade) and in the lower-stratospheric spring (−2 % per decade to −4 % per decade), but positive (2 % per decade to 3 % per decade) at 30–35 km in spring, while the opposite pattern is observed in summer. The tropical trends below 25 km are negative and maximize during summer (up to −2 % per decade) and spring (up to −3 % per decade). In the lower mid-latitude stratosphere, our analysis points to a hemispheric asymmetry: during local summers and equinoxes, positive trends are observed in the south (+1 % per decade to +2 % per decade), while negative trends are observed in the north (−1 % per decade to −2 % per decade). We compare the seasonal dependence of ozone trends with available analyses of the seasonal dependence of stratospheric temperature trends. We find that ozone and temperature trends show positive correlation in the dynamically controlled lower stratosphere and negative correlation above 30 km, where photochemistry dominates. Seasonal trend analysis gives information beyond that contained in annual mean trends, which can be helpful in order to better understand the role of dynamical variability in short-term trends and future ozone recovery predictions.

scholarly journals Ozone and temperature decadal trends in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere, based on measurements from SABER on TIMED

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (8) ◽  
pp. 935-949 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. T. Huang ◽  
H. G. Mayr ◽  
J. M. Russell ◽  
M. G. Mlynczak
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Definitive Evidence ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Ozone Trend ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. We have derived ozone and temperature trends from years 2002 through 2012, from 20 to 100 km altitude, and 48° S to 48° N latitude, based on measurements from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. For the first time, trends of ozone and temperature measured at the same times and locations are obtained, and their correlations should provide useful information about the relative importance of photochemistry versus dynamics over the longer term. We are not aware of comparable results covering this time period and spatial extent. For stratospheric ozone, until the late 1990s, previous studies found negative trends (decreasing amounts). In recent years, some empirical and modeling studies have shown the occurrence of a turnaround in the decreasing ozone, possibly beginning in the late 1990s, suggesting that the stratospheric ozone trend is leveling off or even turning positive. Our global results add more definitive evidence, expand the coverage, and show that at mid-latitudes (north and south) in the stratosphere, the ozone trends are indeed positive, with ozone having increased by a few percent from 2002 through 2012. However, in the tropics, we find negative ozone trends between 25 and 50 km. For stratospheric temperatures, the trends are mostly negatively correlated to the ozone trends. The temperature trends are positive in the tropics between 30 and 40 km, and between 20 and 25 km, at approximately 24° N and at 24° S latitude. The stratospheric temperature trends are otherwise mostly negative. In the mesosphere, the ozone trends are mostly flat, with suggestions of small positive trends at lower latitudes. The temperature trends in this region are mostly negative, showing decreases of up to ~ −3 K decade−1. In the lower thermosphere (between ~ 85 and 100 km), ozone and temperature trends are both negative. The ozone trend can approach ~ −10% decade−1, and the temperature trend can approach ~ −3 K decade−1. Aside from trends, these patterns of ozone–temperature correlations are consistent with previous studies of ozone and temperature perturbations such as the quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual (SAO) oscillations, and add confidence to the results.

scholarly journals An exploration of ozone changes and their radiative forcing prior to the chlorofluorocarbon era

2002 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 363-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
G. Faluvegi
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Independent Data ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Ozone Trend

Abstract. Using historical observations and model simulations, we investigate ozone trends prior to the mid-1970s onset of halogen-induced ozone depletion. Though measurements are quite limited, an analysis based on multiple, independent data sets (direct and indirect) provides better constraints than any individual set of observations. We find that three data sets support an apparent long-term stratospheric ozone trend of -7.2 ± 2.3 DU during 1957-1975, which modeling attributes primarily to water vapor increases. The results suggest that 20th century stratospheric ozone depletion may have been roughly 50% more than is generally supposed. Similarly, three data sets support tropospheric ozone increases over polluted Northern Hemisphere continental regions of 8.2 ± 2.1 DU during this period, which are mutually consistent with the stratospheric trends. As with paleoclimate data, which is also based on indirect proxies and/or limited spatial coverage, these results must be interpreted with caution. However, they provide the most thorough estimates presently available of ozone changes prior to the coincident onset of satellite data and halogen dominated ozone changes. If these apparent trends were real, the radiative forcing by stratospheric ozone since the 1950s would then have been -0.15 ± 0.05 W/m2, and -0.2 W/m2 since the preindustrial. For tropospheric ozone, it would have been 0.38 ± 0.10 W/m2 since the late 1950s. Combined with even a very conservative estimate of tropospheric ozone forcing prior to that time, this would be larger than current estimates since 1850 which are derived from models that are even less well constrained. These calculations demonstrate the importance of gaining a better understanding of historical ozone changes.

scholarly journals The Impact of Non-uniform Sampling on Stratospheric Ozone Trends Derived from Occultation Instruments

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert P. Damadeo ◽  
Joseph M. Zawodny ◽  
Ellis E. Remsberg ◽  
Kaley A. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Uniform Sampling ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Non Uniform Sampling ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper applies a recently developed technique for deriving long-term trends in ozone from sparsely sampled data sets to multiple occultation instruments simultaneously without the need for homogenization. The technique can compensate for the non-uniform temporal, spatial, and diurnal sampling of the different instruments and can also be used to account for biases and drifts between instruments. These problems have been noted in recent international assessments as being a primary source of uncertainty that clouds the significance of derived trends. Results show potential recovery trends of ~ 2–3 %/decade in the upper stratosphere at mid-latitudes, which are similar to other studies, and also how sampling biases present in these data sets can create differences in derived "recovery" trends of up to ~ 1 %/decade if not properly accounted for. Limitations inherent to all techniques (e.g., relative instrument drifts) and their impacts (e.g., trend differences up to ~ 2 %/decade) are also described and a potential path forward towards resolution is presented.

scholarly journals The impact of nonuniform sampling on stratospheric ozone trends derived from occultation instruments

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert P. Damadeo ◽  
Joseph M. Zawodny ◽  
Ellis E. Remsberg ◽  
Kaley A. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Nonuniform Sampling ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
International Assessments ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper applies a recently developed technique for deriving long-term trends in ozone from sparsely sampled data sets to multiple occultation instruments simultaneously without the need for homogenization. The technique can compensate for the nonuniform temporal, spatial, and diurnal sampling of the different instruments and can also be used to account for biases and drifts between instruments. These problems have been noted in recent international assessments as being a primary source of uncertainty that clouds the significance of derived trends. Results show potential “recovery” trends of ∼ 2–3 % decade−1 in the upper stratosphere at midlatitudes, which are similar to other studies, and also how sampling biases present in these data sets can create differences in derived recovery trends of up to ∼ 1 % decade−1 if not properly accounted for. Limitations inherent to all techniques (e.g., relative instrument drifts) and their impacts (e.g., trend differences up to ∼ 2 % decade−1) are also described and a potential path forward towards resolution is presented.

scholarly journals Reconciling differences in stratospheric ozone composites

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 12269-12302 ◽  
Author(s):  
William T. Ball ◽  
Justin Alsing ◽  
Daniel J. Mortlock ◽  
Eugene V. Rozanov ◽  
Fiona Tummon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
Robust Estimate ◽  
Mixture Density ◽  
Source Data ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Decadal Trend

Abstract. Observations of stratospheric ozone from multiple instruments now span three decades; combining these into composite datasets allows long-term ozone trends to be estimated. Recently, several ozone composites have been published, but trends disagree by latitude and altitude, even between composites built upon the same instrument data. We confirm that the main causes of differences in decadal trend estimates lie in (i) steps in the composite time series when the instrument source data changes and (ii) artificial sub-decadal trends in the underlying instrument data. These artefacts introduce features that can alias with regressors in multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis; both can lead to inaccurate trend estimates. Here, we aim to remove these artefacts using Bayesian methods to infer the underlying ozone time series from a set of composites by building a joint-likelihood function using a Gaussian-mixture density to model outliers introduced by data artefacts, together with a data-driven prior on ozone variability that incorporates knowledge of problems during instrument operation. We apply this Bayesian self-calibration approach to stratospheric ozone in 10° bands from 60° S to 60° N and from 46 to 1 hPa (∼ 21–48 km) for 1985–2012. There are two main outcomes: (i) we independently identify and confirm many of the data problems previously identified, but which remain unaccounted for in existing composites; (ii) we construct an ozone composite, with uncertainties, that is free from most of these problems – we call this the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) composite. To analyse the new BASIC composite, we use dynamical linear modelling (DLM), which provides a more robust estimate of long-term changes through Bayesian inference than MLR. BASIC and DLM, together, provide a step forward in improving estimates of decadal trends. Our results indicate a significant recovery of ozone since 1998 in the upper stratosphere, of both northern and southern midlatitudes, in all four composites analysed, and particularly in the BASIC composite. The BASIC results also show no hemispheric difference in the recovery at midlatitudes, in contrast to an apparent feature that is present, but not consistent, in the four composites. Our overall conclusion is that it is possible to effectively combine different ozone composites and account for artefacts and drifts, and that this leads to a clear and significant result that upper stratospheric ozone levels have increased since 1998, following an earlier decline.

The Impact of Ozone-Depleting Substances on Tropical Upwelling, as Revealed by the Absence of Lower-Stratospheric Cooling since the Late 1990s

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2523-2534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Valentina Aquila ◽  
Darryn W. Waugh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

The impact of ozone-depleting substances on global lower-stratospheric temperature trends is widely recognized. In the tropics, however, understanding lower-stratospheric temperature trends has proven more challenging. While the tropical lower-stratospheric cooling observed from 1979 to 1997 has been linked to tropical ozone decreases, those ozone trends cannot be of chemical origin, as active chlorine is not abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere. The 1979–97 tropical ozone trends are believed to originate from enhanced upwelling, which, it is often stated, would be driven by increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases. This study, using simple arguments based on observational evidence after 1997, combined with model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, argues that trends in ozone-depleting substances, not well-mixed greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of temperature and ozone trends in the tropical lower stratosphere until 1997, and this has occurred because ozone-depleting substances are key drivers of tropical upwelling and, more generally, of the entire Brewer–Dobson circulation.

scholarly journals A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 9271-9284 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. McLandress ◽  
T. G. Shepherd ◽  
A. I. Jonsson ◽  
T. von Clarmann ◽  
B. Funke
Keyword(s):  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Linear Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Microwave Sounding ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

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