scholarly journals MICS-Asia III: Overview of model inter-comparison and evaluation of acid deposition over Asia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Baozhu Ge ◽  
Keiichi Sato ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Xuemei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acid Deposition ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Total Deposition ◽  
North Asia ◽  
Phase Iii Study

Abstract. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III was conducted to promote understanding of regional air quality and climate change in Asia, which have received growing attention due to the huge amount of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This study provides an overview of acid depositions. Specifically, dry and wet depositions of the following species were analyzed: S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models was analyzed and evaluated using ground observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). In this Phase III study, the number of observation sites was increased to 54 from 37 in the Phase II study, and Southeast Asian countries were newly added. Additionally, whereas the analysis period was limited to representative months of each season in MICS-Asia Phase II, this Phase III study analyzed the full year of 2010. The scope of this overview mainly focuses on the annual accumulated depositions. In general, models can capture the observed wet depositions over Asia but underestimate the wet deposition of S and A and show large differences in the wet deposition of N. Furthermore, the ratio of wet deposition to the total deposition (the sum of dry and wet deposition) was investigated in order to understand the role of important processes in the total deposition. The general dominance of wet deposition over Asia and attributions from dry deposition over land were consistently found in all models. Then, total deposition maps over 13 countries participating in EANET were produced, and the balance between deposition and anthropogenic emissions was calculated. Excesses of deposition, rather than of anthropogenic emissions, were found over Japan, North Asia, and Southeast Asia, indicating the possibility of long-range transport within and outside Asia, as well as other emission sources. To improve the ability of models to capture the observed wet deposition, two approaches were attempted, namely, ensemble and precipitation adjustment. The ensemble approach was effective at modulating the differences in performance among models, and the precipitation-adjusted approach demonstrated that the model performance for precipitation played a key role in better simulating wet deposition. Finally, the lessons learned from this Phase III study and future perspectives for Phase IV are summarized.

scholarly journals MICS-Asia III: overview of model intercomparison and evaluation of acid deposition over Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 2667-2693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syuichi Itahashi ◽  
Baozhu Ge ◽  
Keiichi Sato ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Xuemei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acid Deposition ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Wet Deposition ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Dry And Wet Deposition ◽  
Total Deposition ◽  
Phase Iii Study

Abstract. The Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) phase III was conducted to promote understanding of regional air quality and climate change in Asia, which have received growing attention due to the huge amount of anthropogenic emissions worldwide. This study provides an overview of acid deposition. Specifically, dry and wet deposition of the following species was analyzed: S (sulfate aerosol, sulfur dioxide (SO2), and sulfuric acid (H2SO4)), N (nitrate aerosol, nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and nitric acid (HNO3)), and A (ammonium aerosol and ammonia (NH3)). The wet deposition simulated by a total of nine models was analyzed and evaluated using ground observation data from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET). In the phase III study, the number of observation sites was increased from 37 in the phase II study to 54, and southeast Asian countries were newly added. Additionally, whereas the analysis period was limited to representative months of each season in MICS-Asia phase II, the phase III study analyzed the full year of 2010. The scope of this overview mainly focuses on the annual accumulated deposition. In general, models can capture the observed wet deposition over Asia but underestimate the wet deposition of S and A, and show large differences in the wet deposition of N. Furthermore, the ratio of wet deposition to the total deposition (the sum of dry and wet deposition) was investigated in order to understand the role of important processes in the total deposition. The general dominance of wet deposition over Asia and attributions from dry deposition over land were consistently found in all models. Then, total deposition maps over 13 countries participating in EANET were produced, and the balance between deposition and anthropogenic emissions was calculated. Excesses of deposition, rather than of anthropogenic emissions, were found over Japan, northern Asia, and southeast Asia, indicating the possibility of long-range transport within and outside of Asia, as well as other emission sources. To improve the ability of models to capture the observed wet deposition, two approaches were attempted, namely, ensemble and precipitation adjustment. The ensemble approach was effective at modulating the differences in performance among models, and the precipitation-adjusted approach demonstrated that the model performance for precipitation played a key role in better simulating wet deposition. Finally, the lessons learned from the phase III study and future perspectives for phase IV are summarized.

Phase II testing of melphalan in children with newly diagnosed rhabdomyosarcoma: a model for anticancer drug development.

1988 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 308-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
M E Horowitz ◽  
E Etcubanas ◽  
M L Christensen ◽  
J A Houghton ◽  
S L George ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase Ii ◽  
Drug Disposition ◽  
Clinical Performance ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Heavily Pretreated ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
Successful Testing ◽  
Previously Treated Patients ◽  
Pretreated Patients

We describe events that led to successful testing of melphalan, one of the nitrogen mustard compounds, in children with newly diagnosed, poor-risk rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). Preclinical studies with xenografts of human RMS, growing in the flanks of immune-deprived mice, had indicated superior oncolytic activity by melphalan compared with other agents commonly used to treat this tumor. However, in a conventional phase II trial, melphalan failed to produce partial responses in 12 of 13 heavily pretreated patients with recurrent tumors. Subsequent comparison of the drug's pharmacokinetics in mice and patients indicated that its poor clinical performance was not the result of interspecies differences in drug disposition. Therefore, we elected to retest melphalan in untreated patients, before they were enrolled in a phase III study. Of 13 children who received the drug for 6 weeks, ten had partial responses, confirming the significant antitumor activity seen in the xenograft system. These findings illustrate the inherent limitations of phase II drug trials in previously treated patients and suggest a useful paradigm for the development of antineoplastic drugs.

Randomized Multicenter Phase II Trial of a Biweekly Regimen of Fluorouracil and Leucovorin (LV5FU2), LV5FU2 Plus Cisplatin, or LV5FU2 Plus Irinotecan in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Fédération Francophone de Cancérologie Digestive Group Study—FFCD 9803

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (21) ◽  
pp. 4319-4328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Bouché ◽  
Jean Luc Raoul ◽  
Franck Bonnetain ◽  
Marc Giovannini ◽  
Pierre Luc Etienne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase Ii ◽  
Phase Ii Trial ◽  
Progression Free Survival ◽  
Metastatic Gastric Cancer ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Survival Times ◽  
Multicenter Phase ◽  
Independent Expert ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
Cancérologie Digestive

Purpose To determine the efficacy and safety of a biweekly regimen of leucovorin (LV) plus fluorouracil (FU) alone or in combination with cisplatin or irinotecan in patients with previously untreated metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma and to select the best arm for a phase III study. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty-six patients (two were ineligible) were enrolled onto the randomized multicenter phase II trial. Patients received LV 200 mg/m2 (2-hour infusion) followed by FU 400 mg/m2 (bolus) and FU 600 mg/m2 (22-hour continuous infusion) on days 1 and 2 every 14 days (LV5FU2; arm A), LV5FU2 plus cisplatin 50 mg/m2 (1-hour infusion) on day 1 or 2 (arm B), or LV5FU2 plus irinotecan 180 mg/m2 (2-hour infusion) on day 1 (arm C). Results The overall response rates, which were confirmed by an independent expert panel, were 13% (95% CI, 3.4% to 23.3%), 27% (95% CI, 14.1% to 40.4%), and 40% (95% CI, 25.7% to 54.3%) for arms A, B, and C, respectively. Median progression-free survival and overall survival times were 3.2 months (95% CI, 1.8 to 4.6 months) and 6.8 months (95% CI, 2.6 to 11.1 months) with LV5FU2, respectively; 4.9 months (95% CI, 3.5 to 6.3 months) and 9.5 months (95% CI, 6.9 to 12.2 months) with LV5FU2-cisplatin, respectively; and 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.5 to 8.3 months) and 11.3 months (95% CI, 9.3 to 13.3 months) with LV5FU2-irinotecan, respectively. Conclusion Of the three regimens tested, the combination of LV5FU2-irinotecan is the most promising and will be assessed in a phase III trial.

OPTIMOX2, a large randomized phase II study of maintenance therapy or chemotherapy-free intervals (CFI) after FOLFOX in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (MRC). A GERCOR study

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 3504-3504 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Maindrault-Goebel ◽  
G. Lledo ◽  
B. Chibaudel ◽  
L. Mineur ◽  
T. Andre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maintenance Therapy ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Median Duration ◽  
Phase Ii Study ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Randomized Phase Ii ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
Large Phase ◽  
Duration Of Disease

3504 Background: The OPTIMOX1 study (JCO 2006) has shown that the strategy of 6 cycles of FOLFOX7 followed by maintenance therapy and FOLFOX reintroduction was as active and better tolerated than FOLFOX4 until progression. The aim of the OPTIMOX2 study was to evaluate a complete stop of chemotherapy after 6 bimonthly cycles of FOLFOX. Methods: Initially planned as a phase III study, OPTIMOX2 was downgraded to a large phase II study since the availability of bevacizumab. Patients (pts) were randomized between an OPTIMOX1 arm: 6 cycles of FOLFOX7 followed by LV5FU until progression and reintroduction of FOLFOX7, and the OPTIMOX2 arm: 6 cycles of FOLFOX7, complete stop of chemotherapy and reintroduction of FOLFOX7 before the tumor progression reached the baseline measures. Results: 187/200 planned pts were included between Feb 2004 and Nov 2005. Response rates were (OPTIMOX1 arm/OPTIMOX2 arm): CR 2%/2%, PR 54%/51%, stable 24%/33%, progression 11%/7%, non assessable 9%/7%. Median PFS were (OPTIMOX1 arm/OPTIMOX2 arm) 36/28 weeks (p=.01), PFS in responders 41/30 weeks (p=.001), PFS in stable patients 34/26 weeks (p=.23). Median duration of disease control (DDC), addition of PFS of first FOLFOX7 administration plus PFS of FOLFOX reintroduction if no progression at first evaluation, was 41 weeks in the OPTIMOX1 arm and 36 in the OPTIMOX2 arm, p=.17. Median duration of chemotherapy-free interval in the OPTIMOX2 arm was 25 weeks (5.7 months). Conclusions: Maintenance LV5FU therapy prolongs PFS. The quality of life of almost 6 months CFI can balance a small advantage in DDC for maintenance therapy. Our next goal is to evaluate maintenance therapy with targeted agents alone. [Table: see text]

Randomised phase II study evaluating weekly docetaxel in combination with cisplatin and 5FU or capecitabine in metastatic oesophago-gastric cancer

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4067-4067 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Tebbutt ◽  
V. Gebski ◽  
A. Strickland ◽  
D. Gibbs ◽  
E. Walpole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Phase Ii Study ◽  
Haematological Toxicity ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Stage Design ◽  
Weekly Docetaxel ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
Recent Phase ◽  
Combination Regimens

4067 Background: Docetaxel (T), cisplatin (C) and 5FU (F) are active agents in oesophago-gastric cancer. A recent phase III study using TCF achieved a survival advantage but was associated with high rates of haematological toxicity (30% incidence of febrile neutropenia/neutropenic infection) as well as non-haematological side effects (Moiseyenko et al, 2005 Pr ASCO abstr 4002). Weekly docetaxel is associated with a lower incidence of haematological toxicity. This randomised phase II study aimed to test weekly docetaxel based combination chemotherapy regimens with the aim of maintaining the activity of docetaxel based combination regimens but reducing toxicity. Methods: Eligibility included; histologically confirmed, metastatic oesophageal or gastric (OG) carcinoma, measurable disease, PS0–2, adequate organ function, no prior treatment, informed consent. Pts were randomised to receive weekly (w) T 30 mg/m2 d1, 8 C 60 mg/m2 d1 F 200 mg/m2/d continuously q 3w or wT 30 mg/m2 d1, d8 and capecitabine (×)1600 mg/m2/d d1–14 q3w. The primary endpoint is confirmed response rate (RR), with each arm analysed independently. Simon’s 2 stage design was used, with 5/21 responses required in the first stage to allow continuation to 48 pts per arm. Results: 79 pts enrolled to date. Protocol specified interim analysis of efficacy after 21 pts per arm and of toxicity after 25 pts per arm ( Table ). In the first 21 pts per arm; 12 responses (11 confirmed) in wTCF arm, 6 responses (5 confirmed) in wTX arm. Trial continues accrual to target of 48 pts per arm. Complete accrual expected by April 2006. Updated data will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions: wTCF and wTX have encouraging activity and and a more favourable toxicity profile than TCF administered 3-weekly. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]

Results of the X-PECT study: A phase III randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled study of perifosine plus capecitabine (P-CAP) versus placebo plus capecitabine (CAP) in patients (pts) with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. LBA3501-LBA3501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna C. Bendell ◽  
Thomas J. Ervin ◽  
Neil N. Senzer ◽  
Donald A. Richards ◽  
Irfan Firdaus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Overall Survival ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Median Overall Survival ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Controlled Study ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Double Blind Placebo ◽  
Randomized Phase Ii ◽  
Phase Iii Study

LBA3501 Background: Perifosine (P) is an oral, synthetic alkylphospholipid that inhibits or modifies signal transduction pathways including AKT, NFkB and JNK. A randomized phase II study examined P-CAP vs. CAP in pts with 2nd or 3rd line mCRC. This study showed improvement in mTTP (HR 0.254 [0.117, 0.555]) and mOS (HR 0.370 [0.180,0.763]). Based on these results, a randomized phase III study of P-CAP vs. CAP with a primary endpoint of overall survival (OS) in pts with refractory mCRC was initiated. Methods: The study was a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized phase III trial. Eligible pts had mCRC which was refractory to all standard therapies. Pts randomized 1:1 to Arm A = P-CAP (P 50 mg PO QD + CAP 1000 mg/m2PO BID d1-14) or Arm B = CAP (placebo + CAP 1000 mg/m2 PO BID d 1-14). Cycles were 21 days. Baseline tumor block collection and a biomarker cohort of pts with pre- and on-treatment tumor and blood samples were performed. Results: Between 3/31/10 and 8/12/11, 468 pts were randomized, 234 pts were in each arm. Baseline demographics were balanced between the arms: age < 65y (A: 65%, B: 58.5%), male (A: 57.7%, B: 53.0%), ECOG PS 0 (A: 39.7%, B: 39.7%), K-ras mutant (A: 50.4%, B: 51.3%), and median number of prior therapies (A: 4, B: 4). As of 3/19/12, median follow up was 6.6 months. Median overall survival: Arm A = 6.4 mo, Arm B = 6.8 mo, HR 1.111 [0.905,1.365], p = 0.315. Median overall survival for K-ras WT pts: Arm A = 6.6 mo, Arm B = 6.8 mo, HR 1.020 [0.763,1.365], p = 0.894; K-ras mutant pts: Arm A = 5.4 mo, Arm B = 6.9 mo HR 1.192 [0.890,1.596], p = 0.238. Conclusions: Despite promising randomized phase II data, this phase III study shows no benefit in overall survival adding perifosine to capecitabine in the refractory colorectal cancer setting. Response rate, progression free survival, and safety data will be presented. Biomarker analysis is pending to see if subgroups of patients may have potential benefit.

Phase II double-blind placebo-controlled study of armodafinil for brain radiation induced fatigue.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 9505-9505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward G. Shaw ◽  
Doug Case ◽  
David Bryant ◽  
David Grisell ◽  
Glenn Lesser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Function ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Concurrent Chemotherapy ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Controlled Study ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
Phase Iii Study ◽  
Brain Radiation

9505 Background: Armodafinil (ARM), the R-enantiomer of modafinil, is FDA approved for narcolepsy, shift work disorder, and treated sleep-apnea, and has also been shown to reduce fatigue/improve cognitive function in cancer patients. This phase II study estimated the efficacy and toxicity of ARM in primary brain tumor (PBT) patients receiving brain radiation therapy (RT) to determine whether a larger phase III study would be warranted. Methods: Eligibility criteria – adult, PBT, total RT dose >45Gy, KPS>60, no severe headaches, and concurrent chemotherapy allowed. Patients were assessed at baseline, end of RT, then 4 weeks after end RT with the Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI), Epworth Sleep Scale (ESS), FACT, and FACT brain and FACIT fatigue subscales. Patients were randomized to receive ARM 150mg/day during RT and for 4 weeks after RT or placebo (PLAC). Results: 54 patients enrolled between 9/10-12/12; 26 to ARM, 28 to placebo PLAC. Median age 59; 59% female; 95% White; 41% KPS 90-100, 59% KPS 60-80; 74% malignant glioma, 26% low-grade glioma/benign histology. 83% patients had concurrent chemotherapy. For all randomized patients, there were no statistically significant differences in outcome between ARM and PLAC groups at end-RT vs. baseline or 4 weeks post RT vs. baseline. For patients who had more baseline fatigue (fatigue subscale score <median), ARM-treated patients had significantly/suggestively better outcomes at end-RT vs. baseline compared to PLAC-treated patients: less fatigue (BFI p=0.056, fatigue subscale p=0.0295), less sleepiness (ESS p=0.1034), and better QOL (FACT p=0.0001). Incidence of grade 2/3 toxicities was the same between the two treatment groups: 7% anxiety, 7% nausea, 18% headaches, and 20% insomnia. There were no grade 4 or 5 toxicities. Conclusions: In irradiated PBT patients, fatigue, sleepiness, and reduced QOL occurring at the end of brain RT was less with ARM in those patients who were more fatigued at baseline. Toxicity was minimal. These data support conducting a larger phase III study. Analysis of cognitive function data is ongoing. Support - NIH/NCI grant 2U10 CA 81851 and Teva Pharmaceuticals. Clinical trial information: 95709.

scholarly journals Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Phase III Study of Tasquinimod in Men With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (22) ◽  
pp. 2636-2643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cora Sternberg ◽  
Andrew Armstrong ◽  
Roberto Pili ◽  
Siobhan Ng ◽  
Robert Huddart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Karnofsky Performance Status ◽  
Performance Status ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer ◽  
Double Blind ◽  
End Point ◽  
Castration Resistant ◽  
Phase Iii Study

Purpose Tasquinimod, a novel oral therapy targeting the tumor microenvironment, significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS) in a randomized, placebo-controlled phase II trial in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). This phase III study was conducted to confirm the phase II results and to detect an overall survival (OS) benefit. Patients and Methods Men with chemotherapy-naïve mCRPC and evidence of bone metastases were assigned (2:1) to receive tasquinimod once per day or placebo until progression or toxicity. The primary end point was radiographic PFS (rPFS; time from random assignment to radiologic progression or death) per Prostate Cancer Working Group 2 criteria and RECIST 1.1. The study had 99.9% power to detect an rPFS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.6 with a two-sided alpha error of .05 and 80% power to detect a target HR of 0.8 for OS, the key secondary end point. Results In all, 1,245 patients were randomly assigned to either tasquinimod (n = 832) or placebo (n = 413) between March 2011 and December 2012 at 241 sites in 37 countries. Baseline characteristics were balanced between groups: median age, 71 years; Karnofsky performance status ≥ 90%, 77.3%; and visceral metastases, 21.1%. Estimated median rPFS by central review was 7.0 months (95% CI, 5.8 to 8.2 months) with tasquinimod and 4.4 months (95% CI, 3.5 to 5.5 months) with placebo (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.75; P < .001). Median OS was 21.3 months (95% CI, 19.5 to 23.0 months) with tasquinimod and 24.0 months (95% CI, 21.4 to 26.9 months) with placebo (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.28; P = .25). Grade ≥ 3 adverse events were more frequent with tasquinimod (42.8% v 33.6%), the most common being anemia, fatigue, and cancer pain. Conclusion In chemotherapy-naïve men with mCRPC, tasquinimod significantly improved rPFS compared with placebo. However, no OS benefit was observed.

Model-based estimates of tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics to predict for overall survival (OS) in first-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e19049-e19049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Claret ◽  
Pierre Mancini ◽  
Bernard Sebastien ◽  
Christine Veyrat-Follet ◽  
Rene Bruno
Keyword(s):  
Tumor Growth ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Tumor Size ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Phase Ii Studies ◽  
Phase Iii Study

e19049 Background: A survival model using change in tumor size at week 8 from baseline (CTS) (Clin Pharmacol Ther 86:167-174, 2009) was used to predict OS of the motesanib phase III study in NSCLC (Clin Pharmacol Ther 92:631-634, 2012). However CTS may not fully capture treatment effect on OS. We investigated other TGI metrics to predict OS using historical phase III data. Methods: Various TGI metrics, CTS, time to growth (TTG), and tumor growth rate (G), were estimated using two longitudinal tumor size models (Clin Cancer Res 17:907-917, 2011, PAGE 21 [www.page-meeting.org/?abstract=2328], 2012, JCO in press, 2013) developed from phase III data (1218 1st-line patients with NSCLC treated with doxetaxel (D) plus cisplatin (Cs) or carboplatin (Cb) or vinorelbine (V) plus Cs) (J Clin Oncol, 21:2016-3024, 2003). TGI metrics and baseline prognostic factors were assessed in univariate Cox and multivariate parametric survival models. Alternative models were qualified by simulating OS distributions in 1000 replicates of the phase III study and checking that observed OS distribution belongs to the 95% prediction intervals. Results: In a univariate analysis all TS metrics were strong predictors of OS (p<0.0001). TTG and G were similar and much better than CTS (likelihood ratio test). OS was best described by a log-normal distribution and the influence of the covariates was assessed based on linear regression of the logarithm of OS (days). Parameter estimates of the best multivariate model are shown in the Table. The model was qualified in predicting OS distributions in the 3 arms (D+Cs, D+Cb, V+Cs). Conclusions: With further external validation, this model could be used to analyze longitudinal NSCLC tumor size data and their relationship to OS, in phase II studies of new agents and support end-of-phase-II decisions. [Table: see text]

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