scholarly journals The unexpected smoke layer in the High Arctic winter stratosphere during MOSAiC 2019–2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (20) ◽  
pp. 15783-15808
Author(s):  
Kevin Ohneiser ◽  
Albert Ansmann ◽  
Alexandra Chudnovsky ◽  
Ronny Engelmann ◽  
Christoph Ritter ◽  
...  

Abstract. During the 1-year MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, the German icebreaker Polarstern drifted through Arctic Ocean ice from October 2019 to May 2020, mainly at latitudes between 85 and 88.5∘ N. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar was operated on board the research vessel and continuously monitored aerosol and cloud layers up to a height of 30 km. During our mission, we expected to observe a thin residual volcanic aerosol layer in the stratosphere, originating from the Raikoke volcanic eruption in June 2019, with an aerosol optical thickness (AOT) of 0.005–0.01 at 500 nm over the North Pole area during the winter season. However, the highlight of our measurements was the detection of a persistent, 10 km deep aerosol layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), from about 7–8 to 17–18 km height, with clear and unambiguous wildfire smoke signatures up to 12 km and an order of magnitude higher AOT of around 0.1 in the autumn of 2019. Case studies are presented to explain the specific optical fingerprints of aged wildfire smoke in detail. The pronounced aerosol layer was present throughout the winter half-year until the strong polar vortex began to collapse in late April 2020. We hypothesize that the detected smoke originated from extraordinarily intense and long-lasting wildfires in central and eastern Siberia in July and August 2019 and may have reached the tropopause layer by the self-lifting process. In this article, we summarize the main findings of our 7-month smoke observations and characterize the aerosol in terms of geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties. The UTLS AOT at 532 nm ranged from 0.05–0.12 in October–November 2019 and 0.03–0.06 during the main winter season. The Raikoke aerosol fraction was estimated to always be lower than 15 %. We assume that the volcanic aerosol was above the smoke layer (above 13 km height). As an unambiguous sign of the dominance of smoke in the main aerosol layer from 7–13 km height, the particle extinction-to-backscatter ratio (lidar ratio) at 355 nm was found to be much lower than at 532 nm, with mean values of 55 and 85 sr, respectively. The 355–532 nm Ångström exponent of around 0.65 also clearly indicated the presence of smoke aerosol. For the first time, we show a distinct view of the aerosol layering features in the High Arctic from the surface up to 30 km height during the winter half-year. Finally, we provide a vertically resolved view on the late winter and early spring conditions regarding ozone depletion, smoke occurrence, and polar stratospheric cloud formation. The latter will largely stimulate research on a potential impact of the unexpected stratospheric aerosol perturbation on the record-breaking ozone depletion in the Arctic in spring 2020.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Ohneiser ◽  
Albert Ansmann ◽  
Ronny Engelmann ◽  
Christoph Ritter ◽  
Alexandra Chudnovsky ◽  
...  

Abstract. During the one-year MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition the German icebreaker Polarstern drifted through the Arctic Ocean ice from October 2019 to May 2020, mainly at latitudes between 85° N and 88.5° N. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar was operated aboard the research vessel and continuously monitored aerosol and cloud layers up to 30 km height. The highlight of the lidar measurements was the detection of a persistent, 10 km deep wildfire smoke layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) from about 7–8 km to 17–18 km height. The smoke layer was present throughout the winter half year until the polar vortex, the strongest of the last 40 years, collapsed in late April 2020. The smoke originated from major fire events, especially from extraordinarily intense and long-lasting Siberian fires in July and August 2019. In this article, we summarize the main findings of our seven-month smoke observations and characterize the aerosol properties and decay of the stratospheric perturbation in terms of geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties. The UTLS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 532 nm ranged from 0.05–0.12 in October–November 2019 and was of the order of 0.03–0.06 during the central winter months (December–February). As an unambiguous sign of the dominance of smoke, the particle extinction-to-backscatter ratio (lidar ratio) at 355 nm was found to be much lower than the respective 532 nm lidar ratio. Mean values were 55 sr (355 nm) and 85 sr (532 nm). We further present a review of previous height resolved Arctic aerosol observations (remote sensing) in our study. For the first time, a coherent and representative view on the aerosol layering features in the Central Arctic from the surface up to 27 km height during the winter half year is presented. Finally, a potential impact of the wildfire smoke aerosol on the record-breaking ozone depletion over the Arctic in the spring of 2020 is discussed based on smoke, ozone, and polar stratospheric cloud observations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Calì Quaglia ◽  
Daniela Meloni ◽  
Alcide Giorgio di Sarra ◽  
Tatiana Di Iorio ◽  
Virginia Ciardini ◽  
...  

<p>Extended and intense wildfires occurred in Northern Canada and, unexpectedly, on the Greenlandic West coast during summer 2017. The thick smoke plume emitted into the atmosphere was transported to the high Arctic, producing one of the largest impacts ever observed in the region. Evidence of Canadian and Greenlandic wildfires was recorded at the Thule High Arctic Atmospheric Observatory (THAAO, 76.5°N, 68.8°W, www.thuleatmos-it.it) by a suite of instruments managed by ENEA, INGV, Univ. of Florence, and NCAR. Ground-based observations of the radiation budget have allowed quantification of the surface radiative forcing at THAAO. </p><p>Excess biomass burning chemical tracers such as CO, HCN, H2CO, C2H6, and NH3 were  measured in the air column above Thule starting from August 19 until August 23. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) reached a peak value of about 0.9 on August 21, while an enhancement of wildfire compounds was  detected in PM10. The measured shortwave radiative forcing was -36.7 W/m2 at 78° solar zenith angle (SZA) for AOD=0.626.</p><p>MODTRAN6.0 radiative transfer model (Berk et al., 2014) was used to estimate the aerosol radiative effect and the heating rate profiles at 78° SZA. Measured temperature profiles, integrated water vapour, surface albedo, spectral AOD and aerosol extinction profiles from CALIOP onboard CALIPSO were used as model input. The peak  aerosol heating rate (+0.5 K/day) was  reached within the aerosol layer between 8 and 12 km, while the maximum radiative effect (-45.4 W/m2) is found at 3 km, below the largest aerosol layer.</p><p>The regional impact of the event that occurred on August 21 was investigated using a combination of atmospheric radiative transfer modelling with measurements of AOD and ground surface albedo from MODIS. The aerosol properties used in the radiative transfer model were constrained by in situ measurements from THAAO. Albedo data over the ocean have been obtained from Jin et al. (2004). Backward trajectories produced through HYSPLIT simulations (Stein et al., 2015) were also employed to trace biomass burning plumes.</p><p>The radiative forcing efficiency (RFE) over land and ocean was derived, finding values spanning from -3 W/m2 to -132 W/m2, depending on surface albedo and solar zenith angle. The fire plume covered a vast portion of the Arctic, with large values of the daily shortwave RF (< -50 W/m2) lasting for a few days. This large amount of aerosol is expected to influence cloud properties in the Arctic, producing significant indirect radiative effects.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3949-3979 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Toyota ◽  
J. C. McConnell ◽  
A. Lupu ◽  
L. Neary ◽  
C. A. McLinden ◽  
...  

Abstract. Episodes of high bromine levels and surface ozone depletion in the springtime Arctic are simulated by an online air-quality model, GEM-AQ, with gas-phase and heterogeneous reactions of inorganic bromine species and a simple scheme of air-snowpack chemical interactions implemented for this study. Snowpack on sea ice is assumed to be the only source of bromine to the atmosphere and to be capable of converting relatively stable bromine species to photolabile Br2 via air-snowpack interactions. A set of sensitivity model runs are performed for April 2001 at a horizontal resolution of approximately 100 km×100 km in the Arctic, to provide insights into the effects of temperature and the age (first-year, FY, versus multi-year, MY) of sea ice on the release of reactive bromine to the atmosphere. The model simulations capture much of the temporal variations in surface ozone mixing ratios as observed at stations in the high Arctic and the synoptic-scale evolution of areas with enhanced BrO column amount ("BrO clouds") as estimated from satellite observations. The simulated "BrO clouds" are in modestly better agreement with the satellite measurements when the FY sea ice is assumed to be more efficient at releasing reactive bromine to the atmosphere than on the MY sea ice. Surface ozone data from coastal stations used in this study are not sufficient to evaluate unambiguously the difference between the FY sea ice and the MY sea ice as a source of bromine. The results strongly suggest that reactive bromine is released ubiquitously from the snow on the sea ice during the Arctic spring while the timing and location of the bromine release are largely controlled by meteorological factors. It appears that a rapid advection and an enhanced turbulent diffusion associated with strong boundary-layer winds drive transport and dispersion of ozone to the near-surface air over the sea ice, increasing the oxidation rate of bromide (Br−) in the surface snow. Also, if indeed the surface snowpack does supply most of the reactive bromine in the Arctic boundary layer, it appears to be capable of releasing reactive bromine at temperatures as high as −10 °C, particularly on the sea ice in the central and eastern Arctic Ocean. Dynamically-induced BrO column variability in the lowermost stratosphere appears to interfere with the use of satellite BrO column measurements for interpreting BrO variability in the lower troposphere but probably not to the extent of totally obscuring "BrO clouds" that originate from the surface snow/ice source of bromine in the high Arctic. A budget analysis of the simulated air-surface exchange of bromine compounds suggests that a "bromine explosion" occurs in the interstitial air of the snowpack and/or is accelerated by heterogeneous reactions on the surface of wind-blown snow in ambient air, both of which are not represented explicitly in our simple model but could have been approximated by a parameter adjustment for the yield of Br2 from the trigger.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Ohneiser ◽  
Albert Ansmann ◽  
Ronny Engelmann ◽  
Boris Barja ◽  
Holger Baars ◽  
...  

<p>The highlight of our multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar measurements during the 1-year MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the Arctic Ocean ice from October 2019 to May 2020 was the detection of a persistent, 10 km deep aerosol layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) with clear and unambiguous wild-fire smoke signatures. The smoke is supposed to originate from extraordinarily intense and long-lasting wildfires in central and eastern Siberia in July and August 2019 and may have reached the tropopause layer by the self-lifting process.</p><p>Temporally almost parallelly, record-breaking wildfires accompanied by unprecedentedly strong pyroconvection were raging in the south-eastern part of Australia in late December 2019 and early January 2020. These fires injected huge amounts of biomass-burning smoke into the stratosphere where the smoke particles became distributed over the entire southern hemispheric in the UTLS regime from 10-30 km to even 35 km height. The stratospheric smoke layer was monitored with our Raman lidar in Punta Arenas (53.2°S, 70.9°W, Chile, southern South America) for two years.</p><p>The fact that these two events in both hemispheres coincided with record-breaking ozone hole events in both hemispheres in the respective spring seasons motivated us to discuss a potential impact of the smoke particles on the strong ozone depletion. The discussion is based on the overlapping height ranges of the smoke particles, polar stratospheric clouds, and the ozone hole regions. It is well known that strong ozone reduction is linked to the development of a strong and long-lasting polar vortex, which favours increased PSC formation. In these clouds, active chlorine components are produced via heterogeneous chemical processes on the surface of the PSC particles. Finally, the chlorine species destroy ozone molecules in the spring season. However, there are two pathways to influence ozone depletion by aerosol pollution. The particles can influence the evolution of PSCs and specifically their microphysical properties (number concentration and size distribution), and on the other hand, the particles can be directly involved in heterogeneous chemical processes by increasing the particle surface area available to convert nonreactive chlorine components into reactive forms. A third (indirect) impact of smoke, when well distributed over large parts of the Northern or Southern hemispheres, is via the influence on large-scale atmospheric dynamics.</p><p>We will show our long-term smoke lidar observations in the central Arctic and in Punta Arenas as well as ozone profile measurements during the ozone-depletion seasons. Based on these aerosol and ozone profile data we will discuss the potential interaction between smoke and ozone.</p>


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 9651-9679 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Thompson ◽  
P. B. Shepson ◽  
J. Liao ◽  
L. G. Huey ◽  
E. C. Apel ◽  
...  

Abstract. The springtime depletion of tropospheric ozone in the Arctic is known to be caused by active halogen photochemistry resulting from halogen atom precursors emitted from snow, ice, or aerosol surfaces. The role of bromine in driving ozone depletion events (ODEs) has been generally accepted, but much less is known about the role of chlorine radicals in ozone depletion chemistry. While the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic is more uncertain, there have been indications of active iodine chemistry through observed enhancements in filterable iodide, probable detection of tropospheric IO, and recently, observation of snowpack photochemical production of I2. Despite decades of research, significant uncertainty remains regarding the chemical mechanisms associated with the bromine-catalyzed depletion of ozone, as well as the complex interactions that occur in the polar boundary layer due to halogen chemistry. To investigate this, we developed a zero-dimensional photochemical model, constrained with measurements from the 2009 OASIS field campaign in Barrow, Alaska. We simulated a 7-day period during late March that included a full ozone depletion event lasting 3 days and subsequent ozone recovery to study the interactions of halogen radicals under these different conditions. In addition, the effects of iodine added to our Base Model were investigated. While bromine atoms were primarily responsible for ODEs, chlorine and iodine were found to enhance the depletion rates and iodine was found to be more efficient per atom at depleting ozone than Br. The interaction between chlorine and bromine is complex, as the presence of chlorine can increase the recycling and production of Br atoms, while also increasing reactive bromine sinks under certain conditions. Chlorine chemistry was also found to have significant impacts on both HO2 and RO2, with organic compounds serving as the primary reaction partner for Cl atoms. The results of this work highlight the need for future studies on the production mechanisms of Br2 and Cl2, as well as on the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3699-3715 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Young ◽  
I. N. Sokolik ◽  
J. Dufek

Abstract. High northern latitude eruptions have the potential to release volcanic aerosol into the Arctic environment, perturbing the Arctic's climate system. We present assessments of shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and net direct aerosol radiative forcing efficiencies and atmospheric heating/cooling rates caused by volcanic aerosol from the 2009 eruption of Mt. Redoubt by performing radiative transfer modeling constrained by NASA A-Train satellite data. The optical properties of volcanic aerosol were calculated by introducing a compositionally resolved microphysical model developed for both ash and sulfates. Two compositions of volcanic aerosol were considered in order to examine a fresh, ash rich plume and an older, ash poor plume. Optical models were incorporated into a modified version of the SBDART radiative transfer model. Our results indicate that environmental conditions, such as surface albedo and solar zenith angle (SZA), can influence the sign and the magnitude of the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface and the magnitude of the forcing in the aerosol layer. We find that a fresh, thin plume (~2.5–7 km) at an AOD (550 nm) range of 0.18–0.58 and SZA = 55° over snow cools the surface and warms the TOA, but the opposite effect is seen for TOA by the same layer over ocean. The layer over snow also warms by 64 W m−2AOD−1 more than the same plume over seawater. The layer over snow at SZA = 75° warms the TOA 96 W m−2AOD−1 less than it would at SZA = 55° over snow, and there is instead warming at the surface. We also find that plume aging can alter the magnitude of the radiative forcing. An aged plume over snow at SZA = 55° would warm the TOA and layer by 146 and 143 W m−2AOD−1 less than the fresh plume, while the aging plume cools the surface 3 W m−2AOD−1 more. Comparing results for the thin plume to those for a thick plume (~3–20 km), we find that the fresh, thick plume with AOD(550 nm) = 3, over seawater, and SZA = 55° heats the upper part of the plume in the SW ~28 K day−1 more and cools in the LW by ~6.3 K day−1 more than a fresh, thin plume under the same environmental conditions. We compare our assessments with those reported for other aerosols typical to the Arctic environment (smoke from wildfires, Arctic haze, and dust) to demonstrate the importance of volcanic aerosols.


2020 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. 02036
Author(s):  
Moritz Haarig ◽  
Holger Baars ◽  
Albert Ansmann ◽  
Ronny Engelmann ◽  
Kevin Ohneiser ◽  
...  

Canadian wildfire smoke was detected in the troposphere and lower stratosphere over Europe in August and September 2017. Lidar measurements from various stations of the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET) observed the stratospheric smoke layer. Triple-wavelength (355, 532, and 1064 nm) lidar measurements of the depolarization and the lidar ratio are reported from Leipzig, Germany. The particle linear depolarization ratio of the wildfire smoke in the stratosphere had an exceptional strong wavelength dependence reaching from 0.22 at 355 nm, to 0.18 at 532 nm, and 0.04 at 1064 nm. The lidar ratio increased with wavelength from 40±16 sr at 355 nm, to 66±12 sr at 532 nm, and 92±27 sr at 1064 nm. The development of the stratospheric smoke plume over several months was studied by long-term lidar measurements in Cyprus. The stratospheric smoke layers increased in altitude up to 24 km height.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 26691-26740 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. L. Young ◽  
I. N. Sokolik ◽  
J. Dufek

Abstract. High northern latitude eruptions have the potential to release volcanic aerosol into the Arctic environment, perturbing the Arctic's climate system. In this study, we present assessments of shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and net direct aerosol radiative forcings (DARFs) and atmospheric heating/cooling rates caused by volcanic aerosol from the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano by performing radiative transfer modeling constrained by NASA A-Train satellite data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model for volcanic ash were used to characterize aerosol across the region. A representative range of aerosol optical depths (AODs) at 550 nm were obtained from MODIS, and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) was used to determine the altitude and thickness of the plumes. The optical properties of volcanic aerosol were calculated using a compositionally resolved microphysical model developed for both ash and sulfates. Two compositions of volcanic aerosol were considered in order to examine a fresh, ash rich plume and an older, ash poor plume. Optical models were incorporated into a modified version of the Santa Barbara Disort Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART) model. Radiative transfer calculations were made for a range of surface albedos and solar zenith angles (SZA) representative of the region. We find that the total DARF caused by a fresh, thin plume (~2.5–7 km) at an AOD (550 nm) range of 0.16–0.58 and SZA = 55° is –46 W m−2AOD−1 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), 110 W m−2AOD−1 in the aerosol layer, and – 150 W m−2AOD−1 at the surface over seawater. However, the total DARF for the same plume over snow and at the same SZA at TOA, in the layer, and at the surface is 170, 170, and −2 W m−2AOD−1, respectively. We also see that the total DARF when SZA = 75° for the same layer over snow is 35 W m−2AOD−1 at TOA, 64 W m−2AOD−1 in the layer, and 11 W m−2AOD−1 at the surface. These results indicate that environmental conditions, such as surface albedo and SZA, control the sign of the radiative forcing at TOA and at the surface and the magnitude of the forcing in the aerosol layer. An older plume over snow at SZA = 55° would have total DARFs of 25, 31, and −5 W m−2AOD−1 at TOA, in the layer, and at the surface, respectively. Our results demonstrate that plume aging can alter the magnitude of the radiative forcing. We also compare results for the thin plume to those for a thick plume (~3–20 km) with an AOD (550 nm) range of 1 to 3. The fresh, thin plume with AOD = 0.58, over seawater, and SZA = 55° will heat the atmosphere in the SW by ~2.5 K day−1 and cool the atmosphere in the LW by ~0.3 Kday−1. The fresh, thick plume with AOD = 3 under the same environmental conditions will produce SW heating in the atmosphere by ~31 Kday−1 and atmospheric LW cooling of ~6.7 K day−1. These calculations convey the importance of vertical plume structure in determining the magnitudes of the radiative effects. We compare our assessments with those reported for other aerosols typical to the Arctic environment (smoke from wildfires, Arctic haze, and dust) to demonstrate the importance of volcanic aerosols.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 28685-28755 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. Thompson ◽  
P. B. Shepson ◽  
J. Liao ◽  
L. G. Huey ◽  
E. C. Apel ◽  
...  

Abstract. The springtime depletion of tropospheric ozone in the Arctic is known to be caused by active halogen photochemistry resulting from halogen atom precursors emitted from snow, ice, or aerosol surfaces. The role of bromine in driving ozone depletion events (ODEs) has been generally accepted, but much less is known about the role of chlorine radicals in ozone depletion chemistry. While the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic is more uncertain, there have been indications of active iodine chemistry through observed enhancements in filterable iodide, probable detection of tropospheric IO, and recently, detection of atmospheric I2. Despite decades of research, significant uncertainty remains regarding the chemical mechanisms associated with the bromine-catalyzed depletion of ozone, as well as the complex interactions that occur in the polar boundary layer due to halogen chemistry. To investigate this, we developed a zero-dimensional photochemical model, constrained with measurements from the 2009 OASIS field campaign in Barrow, Alaska. We simulated a 7 day period during late March that included a full ozone depletion event lasting 3 days and subsequent ozone recovery to study the interactions of halogen radicals under these different conditions. In addition, the effects of iodine added to our base model were investigated. While bromine atoms were primarily responsible for ODEs, chlorine and iodine were found to enhance the depletion rates and iodine was found to be more efficient per atom at depleting ozone than Br. The interaction between chlorine and bromine is complex, as the presence of chlorine can increase the recycling and production of Br atoms, while also increasing reactive bromine sinks under certain conditions. Chlorine chemistry was also found to have significant impacts on both HO2 and RO2. The results of this work highlight the need for future studies on the production mechanisms of Br2 and Cl2, as well as on the potential impact of iodine in the High Arctic.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven-Erik Gryning ◽  
Ekaterina Batchvarova ◽  
Rogier Floors ◽  
Christoph Münkel ◽  
Henrik Skov ◽  
...  

<p>Knowledge and understanding of Arctic cloud properties is important for climate predictions and weather forecasts but limited because of scarcity of observational data on Arctic clouds in general and especially during the dark winter season. Prediction of clouds is known to be a major challenge in numerical weather forecasts and climate models  and the shortage of observations for use in data-assimilation in the Arctic constitutes a further difficulty.</p><p>We present results from an analyses of cloud cover based on profiles of the attenuated backscatter coefficient from an 8-year long data series (July 2011 – April 2019). The observations are carried out in the high Arctic by a ceilometer with a maximum range setting of 7.7 km from the Villum Research Station at Station Nord, Greenland. Results show that the hourly cloud cover turned out to follow a U-shaped rather than Gaussian-like distribution.</p><p>Annual and seasonal cloud cover variation is illustrated. The cloud cover is larger during the autumn and winter as compared to summer and spring. The cloud cover exhibits a substantial variation from year to year without a clear trend. The cloud cover during spring is low and decreasing between 2012 and 2017. The cloud cover during the autumn of 2016 is lowest compared to the other years.</p><p>The observed cloud cover is compared to the cloud cover provided in the ERA5 reanalysis data-set. The cloud cover for low clouds and medium clouds are combined to represent a total height of 6 km. Both the observed and modelled cloud cover is larger during winter as compared to summer-time cloud cover. The measured reduction in the cloud cover for the autumn of 2016 is present in the reanalysis data as well but the measured low cloud cover during spring is not apparent in the reanalysis data.</p><p>The ability of the ERA-5 reanalysis data to predict the observed cloud cover was investigated. Because the cloud cover distribution is U-shaped rather than of a Gaussian nature, standard metrics are not applicable. We apply a generalized skill score that is developed for contingency tables or joint histograms. Three skill scores were calculated. It was found that for all three methods, skills for the predictability of the cloud cover by the ERA5 modelling is better for winter than summer and is poor during the spring.</p>


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