Land–sea temperature contrasts at the Last Interglacial and their impact on the hydrological cycle

Due to different orbital configurations, high northern latitude summer insolation was higher during the Last Interglacial period (LIG; 129–116 thousand years before present, ka) than during the pre-industrial period (PI), while high southern latitude summer insolation was lower. The climatic response to these changes is studied here with focus on the Southern Hemisphere monsoons, by performing an equilibrium experiment of the LIG at 127 ka with the Australian Earth System Model, ACCESS-ESM1.5, as part of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 4 (PMIP4). Simulated mean surface air temperature between 40 and 60∘ N over land during boreal summer is 6.5 ∘C higher at the LIG compared to PI, which leads to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a strengthening of the North African and Indian monsoons. Despite 0.4 ∘C cooler conditions in austral summer in the Southern Hemisphere (0–90∘ S), annual mean air temperatures are 1.2 ∘C higher at southern mid-latitudes to high latitudes (40–80∘ S). These differences in temperature are coincident with a large-scale reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. The ITCZ shifts southward in the Atlantic and Indian sectors during the LIG austral summer compared to PI, leading to increased precipitation over the southern tropical oceans. However, weaker Southern Hemisphere insolation during LIG austral summer induces a significant cooling over land, which in turn weakens the land–sea temperature contrast, leading to an overall reduction (−20 %) in monsoonal precipitation over the Southern Hemisphere's continental regions compared to PI. The intensity and areal extent of the Australian, South American and South African monsoons are consistently reduced in LIG. This is associated with greater pressure and subsidence over land due to a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell during austral summer.

The Greenland Clipper: a fast ocean connection between Greenland and the Southern Ocean

<p>The glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are thought to result in a global reorganization of oceanic heat fluxes and heat content.</p><p>DO events originate in the North Atlantic, but are communicated all the way to the pole of the other hemisphere. This interhemispheric coupling is known as the bipolar seesaw. A striking feature of the bipolar seesaw is the ~100 year time lag between the initial onset at high northern latitudes and the following adjustments at high southern latitudes.</p><p>Here, we focus on this time lag.</p><p>Ultimately high southern latitudes are expected to begin their adjustment, when the sea ice margin in the Southern Ocean (SO) shift position due to cooling/warming in the ocean below. But how is the northern signal propagated into the SO, and what processes control the time it takes the SO to change its state?</p><p>We expect the SO adjustment to have four components: Planetary waves, geostrophic adjustments in the Atlantic, vertical mixing and finally heat fluxes from baroclinic eddies in the SO.</p><p>To investigate the relative importance of these components on the adjustment time in the SO, we apply a fresh water perturbation at high northern latitude in an idealized setup of the Atlantic basin and the Southern Ocean using the newly developed OGCM VEROS. We measure the time it takes the model's Southern Ocean to adjust to the perturbation as a function of different model parameters associated with the components mentioned above.</p><p>We find that the adjustment time - which we believe is related to the bipolar seesaw time lag - is dominated by two components. The first is associated with geostrophic adjustment in the South Atlantic, and the second with the eddy heat fluxes in the Southern Ocean. Interestingly we find that in the limit of a high (realistic) eddy transfer (Gent-McWilliams) coefficient, the geostrophic component constitutes the main part of the the adjustment time and quantitatively matches the observed time lag in the bipolar seesaw.</p><p>This make us suggest that the bipolar seesaw time lag could be caused mainly by adjustments in the South Atlantic.</p>

Monitoring Arctic and high-latitude wildfires in 2019 and 2020

<p>The boreal summers of 2019 and 2020 were witness to extensive high northern latitude wildfire activity, most notably within the Arctic Circle across eastern Russia. Near-real-time monitoring of the wildfire activity, based on satellite observations of active fires, showed widespread and persistent fires at a scale that had not been observed in the previous years that satellite observations are available. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through its operation of, and contribution to, different Copernicus Services is in a unique position to provide detailed information to monitor high-latitude wildfire activity, including their evolution and potential impacts, when they occur. Fire weather forecasts from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), and surface climate anomalies from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) both provide context to the environmental conditions required for wildfires to persist. Analyses based on observations of fire radiative power, along with analyses and forecasts of associated atmospheric pollutants, from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aid in quantifying the scale and intensity in near-real-time and the subsequent atmospheric impacts. We present an analysis of Arctic and high northern latitude wildfires during the summers of 2019 and 2020, reviewing the underlying meteorological/climatological conditions, the estimated emissions and transport of smoke constituents over the Arctic Ocean. We will show that the different datasets, while being relatively independent, show a strong correspondence and provide a wealth of information required to monitor and provide context for wildfire activity.</p>

Modelling the sedimentary response to orbital variations.

<div> <p>Carbonate-rich middle Eocene sedimentary sequences are relatively scarce, hampering the reconstruction of paleoclimate dynamics within this high-CO<sub>2</sub> world. Nevertheless, the Newfoundland Ridge (North-Atlantic Ocean) hosts a unique sedimentary archive of middle Eocene paleoceanographic change at astronomical 10<sup>4</sup>-year resolution. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Sites U1408 and U1410 exhibit well-defined lithologic alternations between calcareous ooze and clay-rich intervals, occurring at the obliquity beat and associated with changing intensities of Northern Component Water (NCW) formation (Vahlenkamp et al., 2018). These lithological variations are captured by the calcium-iron ratio (Ca/Fe) proxy as a measure of carbonate content. Yet, the asymmetric shape of the Ca/Fe cycles immediately reflects a strong non-linear response to the sinusoidal obliquity forcing. To explore the causes of this non-linearity, we built a simple physically-motivated and time-dependent model that simulates the sedimentary response at IODP Sites U1408 and U1410 between 46 and 42 million years ago.  </p> </div><div> <p>dy/dt = 1/T (b<sup>x</sup> – y)</p> </div><div> <p>The orbital input x constitutes of an insolation gradient during boreal winter (more specifically at winter solstice), as NCW formation is a high northern latitude winter process that depends on the Atlantic interhemispheric temperature gradient<span> </span>(Karas et al., 2017; Vahlenkamp et al., 2018). The latitudes between which the insolation gradient x is calculated is not user-prescribed but part of the parametrization of the model. Two further parameters define the model. The characteristic time constant T accelerates (T < 1) or slows the response to the forcing (T > 1), whereas the base of the exponential-response term b determines the degree of non-linearity in the system. We explored this four-space first with a coarse and then with a finer mesh, and found that the optimum model lies in the neighbourhood of the following values: latitudinal gradient between 63°N and 31°S, T = 4.94 kyr, b = 2.13. The corresponding system reproduces the asymmetric shape of the Ca/Fe cycles, while also exhibiting precession-obliquity interference patterns that occur in the proxy series. These kind of simple modelling efforts hold the potential to refine our mechanistic understanding of the Earth System response to astronomical forcing in the deep and warmer-than-present geologic past.</p> </div><div> <p>Karas et al. (2017) Pliocene oceanic seaways and global climate. Scientific Reports 7: 39842</p> <p>Vahlenkamp et al. (2018) Astronomically paced changes in deep-water circulation in the western North Atlantic during the middle Eocene. Earth and Planetary Science Letter 484: 329 – 340.</p> </div><p> </p><p> </p>

The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate

Purpose of Review The Arctic has experienced the most rapid change in climate of anywhere on Earth, and these changes are certain to drive changes in the carbon budget of the Arctic as vegetation changes, soils warm, fires become more frequent, and wetlands evolve as permafrost thaws. In this study, we review the extensive evidence for Arctic climate change and effects on the carbon cycle. In addition, we re-evaluate some of the observational evidence for changing Arctic carbon budgets. Recent Findings Observations suggest a more active CO2 cycle in high northern latitude ecosystems. Evidence points to increased uptake by boreal forests and Arctic ecosystems, as well as increasing respiration, especially in autumn. However, there is currently no strong evidence of increased CH4 emissions. Summary Long-term observations using both bottom-up (e.g., flux) and top-down (atmospheric abundance) approaches are essential for understanding changing carbon cycle budgets. Consideration of atmospheric transport is critical for interpretation of top-down observations of atmospheric carbon.

Weak Southern Hemispheric monsoons during the Last Interglacial period

Due to different orbital configurations, high northern latitude boreal summer insolation was higher during the Last Interglacial period (LIG; 129–116 thousand years before present, ka) than during the preindustrial period (PI), while high southern latitude austral summer insolation was lower. The climatic response to these changes is studied here with focus on the southern hemispheric monsoons, by performing an equilibrium experiment of the LIG at 127 ka with the Australian Earth System Model, ACCESS-ESM1.5, as part of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 4 (PMIP4). In our simulation, mean surface air temperature increases by 6.5 °C over land during boreal summer between 40° N and 60° N in the LIG compared to PI, leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a strengthening of the North African and Indian monsoons. Despite 0.4 °C cooler conditions in austral summer in the Southern Hemisphere (0–90° S), annual mean air temperatures are 1.2 °C higher at southern mid-to-high latitudes (40° S–80° S). These differences in temperature are coincident with a large-scale reorganisation of the atmospheric circulation. The ITCZ shifts southward in the Atlantic and Indian sectors during the LIG austral summer compared to PI, leading to increased precipitation over the southern tropical oceans. However, the decline in Southern Hemisphere insolation during austral summer induces a significant cooling over land, which in turn weakens the land-sea temperature contrast, leading to an overall reduction (−20 %) in monsoonal precipitation over the Southern Hemisphere's continental regions. The intensity and areal extent of the Australian, South American and South African monsoons are consistently reduced. This is associated with greater pressure and subsidence over land due to a strengthening of the southern hemispheric Hadley cell during austral summer.

Behavioral modifications by a large-northern herbivore to mitigate warming conditions

Background Temperatures in arctic-boreal regions are increasing rapidly and pose significant challenges to moose (Alces alces), a heat-sensitive large-bodied mammal. Moose act as ecosystem engineers, by regulating forest carbon and structure, below ground nitrogen cycling processes, and predator-prey dynamics. Previous studies showed that during hotter periods, moose displayed stronger selection for wetland habitats, taller and denser forest canopies, and minimized exposure to solar radiation. However, previous studies regarding moose behavioral thermoregulation occurred in Europe or southern moose range in North America. Understanding whether ambient temperature elicits a behavioral response in high-northern latitude moose populations in North America may be increasingly important as these arctic-boreal systems have been warming at a rate two to three times the global mean. Methods We assessed how Alaska moose habitat selection changed as a function of ambient temperature using a step-selection function approach to identify habitat features important for behavioral thermoregulation in summer (June–August). We used Global Positioning System telemetry locations from four populations of Alaska moose (n = 169) from 2008 to 2016. We assessed model fit using the quasi-likelihood under independence criterion and conduction a leave-one-out cross validation. Results Both male and female moose in all populations increasingly, and nonlinearly, selected for denser canopy cover as ambient temperature increased during summer, where initial increases in the conditional probability of selection were initially sharper then leveled out as canopy density increased above ~ 50%. However, the magnitude of selection response varied by population and sex. In two of the three populations containing both sexes, females demonstrated a stronger selection response for denser canopy at higher temperatures than males. We also observed a stronger selection response in the most southerly and northerly populations compared to populations in the west and central Alaska. Conclusions The impacts of climate change in arctic-boreal regions increase landscape heterogeneity through processes such as increased wildfire intensity and annual area burned, which may significantly alter the thermal environment available to an animal. Understanding habitat selection related to behavioral thermoregulation is a first step toward identifying areas capable of providing thermal relief for moose and other species impacted by climate change in arctic-boreal regions.

Monsoonal forcing controlled cold water coral growth off south-eastern Brazil during the past 160 kyrs

Cold-water corals (CWC) constitute important deep-water ecosystems that are increasingly under environmental pressure due to ocean acidification and global warming. The sensitivity of these deep-water ecosystems to environmental change is demonstrated by abundant paleo-records drilled through CWC mounds that reveal a characteristic alteration between rapid formation and dormant or erosive phases. Previous studies have identified several parameters such as food supply, oxygenation, and carbon saturation state of bottom water as central for driving or inhibiting CWC growth, yet there is still a large uncertainty about the relative importance of the different environmental parameters. To advance this debate we have performed a multi-proxy study on a sediment core retrieved from the 25 m high Bowie Mound, located in 866 m water depth on the continental slope off south-eastern Brazil, a structure built up mainly by the CWC Solenosmilia variabilis. Our results indicate a multi-factorial control on CWC growth and mound formation at Bowie Mound during the past ~160 kyrs, which reveals distinct formation pulses during glacial high northern latitude cold events (Heinrich Stadials, HS) largely associated with anomalous continental wet periods. The ensuing enhanced run-off elevated the terrigenous nutrient and organic matter supply to the continental margin, and might have boosted marine productivity. The dispersal of food particles towards the CWC colonies during HS was facilitated by the highly dynamic hydraulic conditions along the continental slope that prevailed throughout glacial periods. These conditions caused the emplacement of a pronounced nepheloid layer above Bowie Mound aiding the concentration and along-slope dispersal of organic matter. Our study thus demonstrates a yet unrecognized impact of continental climate variability on a highly vulnerable deep-marine ecosystem.

Wildfire Risk Models for western Greenland: Geostatistical Considerations

<p>The municipalities of Qeqertalik and Qeqqata in western Greenland experienced two wildfires in July 2017 and July 2019, respectively. Both fires occurred near Sisimiut, the second largest city in Greenland, with the ignition site of the July 2019 wildfire along the Arctic Circle Trail. These Arctic fires vary in fuels and burning behaviour from other high northern latitude fires due to unique flora, specifically the lack of extensive grasses, shrubbery, and more vascular vegetation, and presence of deep vertical beds of carbon-rich humus. The purpose of this research was to create wildfire risk models scalable across the Arctic landscapes of Greenland. We test multiple wildfire risk models based on expert-derived weighted matrix and four geostatistical techniques: Equal Influence (eq_infl), Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Generalized Geographically Weighted Regression.The eq_infl model applied an even influence of each landscape characteristics. Two MLR models were developed, one using all the available data for the peninsula where the wildfire occurred (MLR_full) and the other which used an equal randomly chosen 50,000 pixel subset of both the burned area and unburned area (MLR_sub) immediately surrounding the 2017 Qeqertalik wildfire.The optimum model was selected in a stepwise fashion for both MLR models using AIC. GWR and GGWR models were derived from the MLR_sub, to avoid multicollinearity. Landscape characteristics for the wildfire risk models relied on open source remotely sensed data like ~20 m synthetic aperture radar imagery from the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 for soil moisture; elevation, slope, and aspect derived from the 10 m Arctic DEM provided by the U.S. National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) and National Science Foundation (NSF); vegetation fuel beds from the Global Fuelbed Dataset; normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) from 20 m Sentinel-2 served as proxies for vegetation condition; and soil carbon information from the 250 m SoilsGrid product was used to indicate likelihood of humus combustion. The nominal spatial resolution of each wildfire risk model was 20 m, after resampling of data. The optimum wildfire risk model was the model that displayed the greatest fire risk within the 2017 burned area. The average fire risks for each model were compared for significant difference in the mean fire risk using an ANOVA and Tukey's Post hoc. Average predicted fire risks by our models were compared to 2017 and 2019 burned areas visually digitized from 10 m Sentinel-2 data. The MLR_full model best represented the burned area of the 2017 Qeqertalik wildfire, though with an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.232, this leaves large amounts of variation unexplained. This is not surprising as wildfires in Greenland are uncommon and applying traditional fire risk approaches may not accurately represent the real-world. We can interpret from the results of the MLR_full model that landscapes across western Greenland have the potential to burn in a similar manner to the 2017 and 2019 wildfires.</p>

Coupling bottom-up process modeling to atmospheric inversions to constrain the Siberian methane budget

<p>Methane (CH4) is one of the most important greenhouse gases, but unexpected changes in atmospheric CH4 budgets over the past decades emphasize that many aspects regarding the role of this gas in the global climate system remain unexplained to date. With emissions and concentrations likely to continue increasing in the future, quantitative and qualitative insights into processes governing CH4 sources and sinks need to be improved in order to better predict feedbacks with a changing climate. Particularly the high northern latitudes have been identified as a potential future hotspot for global CH4 emissions, but the effective impact of rapid climate change on the mobilization of the enormous carbon reservoir currently stored in northern soils remains unclear.</p><p> </p><p>Process-based modelling frameworks are the most promising tool for predicting CH4 emission trajectories under future climate scenarios. In order to improve the insights into CH4 emissions and their controls, the land-surface component of the Max Planck Earth System model, JSBACH, has been upgraded in recent years. In this context, a particular focus has been placed on refining important processes in permafrost landscapes, including freeze-thaw processes, high-resolution vertical gradients in transport and transformation of carbon in soils, and a dynamic coupling between carbon, water and energy cycles. Evaluating the performance of this model, however, remains a challenge because of the limited observational database for high Northern latitude regions.</p><p> </p><p>In the presented study, we couple methane flux fields simulated by JSBACH to an atmospheric inversion scheme to evaluate model performance within the Siberian domain. Optimization of the surface-atmosphere exchange processes against an atmospheric methane mixing-ratio database will allow to identify the large-scale representativeness of JSBACH simulations, including its spatio-temporal variability in the chosen domain. We will test the impact of selected model parameter settings on the agreement between bottom-up and top-down techniques, therefore highlighting how sensitive regional scale methane budgets are to dominant processes and controls within this region.</p>