scholarly journals Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 23261-23290 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Collins ◽  
M. M. Fry ◽  
H. Yu ◽  
J. S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Emission Region ◽  
Nitric Oxides ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using radiative forcing from the task force on hemispheric transport of air pollution source-receptor global chemical transport model simulations. These simulations model the transport of 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, nitric oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). From the equilibrium radiative forcing results we calculate global climate metrics, global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) and show how these depend on emission region, and can vary as functions of time. For the aerosol species, the GWP(100) values are −37±12, −46±20, and 350±200 for SO2, POM and BC respectively for the direct effects only. The corresponding GTP(100) values are −5.2±2.4, −6.5±3.5, and 50±33. This analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands. This shows that the latitudinal pattern of the temperature response to emissions of the NTCFs does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. For instance temperatures in the Arctic latitudes are particularly sensitive to NTCF emissions in the northern mid-latitudes. At the 100-yr time horizon the ARTPs show NOx emissions can have a warming effect in the northern mid and high latitudes, but cooling in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions of most NTCFs is approximately twice as large as would be implied by the global average.

scholarly journals Local and remote temperature response of regional SO<sub>2</sub> emissions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Lewinschal ◽  
Annica M. L. Ekman ◽  
Hans-Christen Hansson ◽  
Maria Sand ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Emission Region ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Changes

Abstract. Short-lived anthropogenic climate forcers, such as sulphate aerosols, affect both climate and air quality. Despite being short-lived, these forcers do not affect temperatures only locally; regions far away from the emission sources are also affected. Climate metrics are often used e.g. in a policy context to compare the climate impact of different anthropogenic forcing agents. These metrics typically relate a forcing change in a certain region with a temperature change in another region and thus often require a separate model to convert emission changes to radiative forcing changes. In this study, we used a coupled Earth System Model (NorESM) to calculate emission-to-temperature-response metrics for sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission changes in four different policy-relevant regions: Europe, North America, East Asia and South Asia. We first increased the SO2 emissions in each individual region by an amount giving approximately the same global average radiative forcing change (−0.45 W m−2). The global mean temperature change per unit sulphur emission compared to the control experiment was independent of emission region and equal to ∼ 0.006 K/TgSyr−1. On a regional scale, the Arctic showed the largest temperature response in all experiments. The second largest temperature change occurred in the region of the imposed emission increase, except when South Asian emissions were changed; in this experiment, the temperature response was approximately the same in South Asia and East Asia. We also examined the non-linearity of the temperature response by removing all anthropogenic SO2 emissions over Europe in one experiment. In this case, the temperature response (both global and regional) was twice of that in the corresponding experiment with a European emission increase. This nonlinearity in the temperature response is one of many uncertainties associated with the use of simplified climate metrics.

scholarly journals Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2471-2485 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. Collins ◽  
M. M. Fry ◽  
H. Yu ◽  
J. S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
D. T. Shindell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Emission Region ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Ozone Precursors ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

scholarly journals Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (19) ◽  
pp. 27195-27231
Author(s):  
C. R. MacIntosh ◽  
K. P. Shine ◽  
W. J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Mean Field ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOC and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane lifetime) changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in 4 regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOC and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOC and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP as a result of the exponential decay terms, with similar values for the 20 years GTP. However, estimates of the SD calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the SD at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true SD, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. We find that the effect is generally most marked for the case of NOx emissions, where the net effect is a smaller residual of terms of opposing signs. For example, the SD for the 20 year GWP is two to three times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

scholarly journals Regional temperature change potentials for short-lived climate forcers based on radiative forcing from multiple models

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 10795-10809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
Keith P. Shine ◽  
William J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. We calculate the absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) of various short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) based on detailed radiative forcing (RF) calculations from four different models. The temperature response has been estimated for four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N, and 60–90° N). The regional pattern in climate response not only depends on the relationship between RF and surface temperature, but also on where and when emissions occurred and atmospheric transport, chemistry, interaction with clouds, and deposition. We present four emissions cases covering Europe, East Asia, the global shipping sector, and the entire globe. Our study is the first to estimate ARTP values for emissions during Northern Hemisphere summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April). The species studied are aerosols and aerosol precursors (black carbon, organic carbon, SO2, NH3), ozone precursors (NOx, CO, volatile organic compound), and methane (CH4). For the response to BC in the Arctic, we take into account the vertical structure of the RF in the atmosphere, and an enhanced climate efficacy for BC deposition on snow. Of all SLCFs, BC is the most sensitive to where and when the emissions occur, as well as giving the largest difference in response between the latitude bands. The temperature response in the Arctic per unit BC emission is almost four times larger and more than two times larger than the global average for Northern Hemisphere winter emissions for Europe and East Asia, respectively. The latitudinal breakdown likely gives a better estimate of the global temperature response as it accounts for varying efficacies with latitude. An annual pulse of non-methane SLCF emissions globally (representative of 2008) lead to a global cooling. In contrast, winter emissions in Europe and East Asia give a net warming in the Arctic due to significant warming from BC deposition on snow.

scholarly journals The sensitivity of the oxygen isotopes of ice core sulfate to changing oxidant concentrations since the preindustrial

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 20607-20623 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. D. Sofen ◽  
B. Alexander ◽  
S. A. Kunasek
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Isotopes ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Sulfate Formation

Abstract. Changes in tropospheric oxidant concentrations since preindustrial times have implications for the ozone radiative forcing, lifetimes of reduced trace gases, aerosol formation, and human health but are highly uncertain. Measurements of the triple oxygen isotopes of sulfate in ice cores (described by Δ17OSO4 = δ17O − 0.52 × δ18O) provide one of the few constraints on paleo-oxidants. We use the GEOS-Chem global atmospheric chemical transport model to simulate changes in oxidant concentrations and the Δ17OSO4 between 1850 and 1990 to assess the sensitivity of Δ17OSO4 measurements in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to changing tropospheric oxidant concentrations. The model indicates a 42% increase in the concentration of global mean tropospheric O3, a 10% decrease in OH, and a 58% increase in H2O2 between the preindustrial and present. Modeled Δ17OSO4 is consistent with measurements from ice core and aerosol samples. Model results indicate that the observed decrease in the Arctic Δ17OSO4 in spite of increasing O3 is due to the combined effects of increased sulfate formation by O2 catalyzed by anthropogenic transition metals and increased cloud water acidity. In Antarctica, the Δ17OSO4 is sensitive to relative changes of oxidant concentrations, but in a nonlinear fashion. Sensitivity studies explore the uncertainties in preindustrial emissions of oxidant precursors.

scholarly journals Tropospheric bromine chemistry: implications for present and pre-industrial ozone and mercury

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6723-6740 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Parrella ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
Q. Liang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Elemental Mercury ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The North

Abstract. We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1–8 nmol mol−1 (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4%. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

scholarly journals Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 3957-3969 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. R. MacIntosh ◽  
K. P. Shine ◽  
W. J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Concentration Changes ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

scholarly journals Tropospheric bromine chemistry: implications for present and pre-industrial ozone and mercury

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 9665-9715 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Parrella ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
Q. Liang ◽  
Y. Zhang ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Elemental Mercury ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Subsurface Waters

Abstract. We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone concentrations by <1−8 nmol mol−1 (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4%. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

scholarly journals Regional temperature change potentials for short lived climate forcers from multiple models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Jan S. Fuglestvedt ◽  
Keith P. Shine ◽  
William J. Collins
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. We calculate the absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) of various short lived climate forcers (SLCFs) based on detailed radiative forcing (RF) calculations from four different models. The temperature response has been estimated for four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N, and 60–90° N). The regional pattern in climate response not only depends on the relationship between RF and surface temperature, but also on where and when emissions occurred and atmospheric transport, chemistry, interaction with clouds, and deposition. We present four emissions cases covering Europe, East Asia, the global shipping sector, and the globe. Our study is the first to estimate ARTP values for emissions during Northern Hemisphere summer (May–October) and winter season (November–April). The species studied are aerosols and aerosol precursors (black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), SO2, NH3), ozone precursors (NOx, CO, volatile organic compound (VOC)), and methane (CH4). For the response to BC in the Arctic, we take into account the vertical structure of the RF in the atmosphere, and an enhanced climate efficacy for BC deposition on snow. Of all SLCFs, BC is the most sensitive to where and when the emissions occur, as well as giving the largest difference in response between the latitude bands. The temperature response in the Arctic is almost 4 times larger and more than 2 times larger than the global average for Northern Hemisphere winter emissions for Europe and East Asia, respectively. The latitudinal breakdown gives likely a better estimate of the global temperature response as it accounts for varying efficacies with latitude. An annual pulse of non-methane SLCFs emissions globally (representative of 2008) leads to a global cooling. Whereas, winter emissions in Europe and East Asia give a net warming in the Arctic due to significant warming from BC deposition on snow.

Record springtime stratospheric ozone depletion at 80°N in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramina Alwarda ◽  
Kristof Bognar ◽  
Kimberly Strong ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Polar Stratospheric Clouds ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Stratospheric Clouds

&lt;p&gt;The Arctic winter of 2019-2020 was characterized by an unusually persistent polar vortex and temperatures in the lower stratosphere that were consistently below the threshold for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). These conditions led to ozone loss that is comparable to the Antarctic ozone hole. Ground-based measurements from a suite of instruments at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) in Eureka, Canada (80.05&amp;#176;N, 86.42&amp;#176;W) were used to investigate chemical ozone depletion. The vortex was located above Eureka longer than in any previous year in the 20-year dataset and lidar measurements provided evidence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) above Eureka. Additionally, UV-visible zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements showed record ozone loss in the 20-year dataset, evidence of denitrification along with the slowest increase of NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; during spring, as well as enhanced reactive halogen species (OClO and BrO). Complementary measurements of HCl and ClONO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; (chlorine reservoir species) from a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer showed unusually low columns that were comparable to 2011, the previous year with significant chemical ozone depletion. Record low values of HNO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; in the FTIR dataset are in accordance with the evidence of PSCs and a denitrified atmosphere. Estimates of chemical ozone loss were derived using passive ozone from the SLIMCAT offline chemical transport model to account for dynamical contributions to the stratospheric ozone budget.&lt;/p&gt;

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