scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 25175-25229
Author(s):  
F. Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
O. Wild
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations are evaluated in the recent past (1980–2000), and examined in the long-term (1850–2100) using the Representative Concentration Pathways low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the period 2000–2100. ACCMIP multi-model mean total column ozone (TCO) trends compare favourably, within uncertainty estimates, against observations. Particularly good agreement is seen in the Antarctic austral spring (−11.9 % dec−1 compared to observed ~ −13.8 ± 11 % dec−1), although larger deviations are found in the Arctic's boreal spring (−2.1 % dec−1 compared to observed ~ −5.3 ± 3 % dec−1). The simulated ozone hole has cooled the lower stratosphere during austral spring in the last few decades (−2.2 K dec−1). This cooling results in Southern Hemisphere summertime tropospheric circulation changes captured by an increase in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index (1.27 hPa dec−1). In the future, the interplay between the ozone hole recovery and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations may result in the SAM index returning to pre-ozone hole levels or even with a more positive phase from around the second half of the century (−0.4 and 0.3 hPa dec−1 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). By 2100, stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations is greatest in the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (37.7 and 16.1 DU difference between the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively), and smallest over the tropics and Antarctica continent (2.5 and 8.1 DU respectively). Future TCO changes in the tropics are mainly determined by the upper stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations, due to a large compensation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric column ozone changes in the two RCP scenarios. These results demonstrate how changes in stratospheric ozone are tightly linked to climate and show the benefit of including the processes interactively in climate models.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
P. J. Young ◽  
O. Wild
Keyword(s):  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Sensitivity ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations are evaluated in the recent past (1980–2000), and examined in the long-term (1850–2100) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) low- and high-emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) for the period 2000–2100. ACCMIP multi-model mean total column ozone (TCO) trends compare favourably, within uncertainty estimates, against observations. Particularly good agreement is seen in the Antarctic austral spring (−11.9 % dec−1 compared to observed  ∼  −13.9 ± 10.4 % dec−1), although larger deviations are found in the Arctic's boreal spring (−2.1 % dec−1 compared to observed  ∼  −5.3 ± 3.3 % dec−1). The simulated ozone hole has cooled the lower stratosphere during austral spring in the last few decades (−2.2 K dec−1). This cooling results in Southern Hemisphere summertime tropospheric circulation changes captured by an increase in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index (1.3 hPa dec−1). In the future, the interplay between the ozone hole recovery and greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations may result in the SAM index returning to pre-ozone hole levels or even with a more positive phase from around the second half of the century (−0.4 and 0.3 hPa dec−1 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). By 2100, stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations is greatest in the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (37.7 and 16.1 DU difference between the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively), and smallest over the tropics and Antarctica continent (2.5 and 8.1 DU respectively). Future TCO changes in the tropics are mainly determined by the upper stratospheric ozone sensitivity to GHG concentrations, due to a large compensation between tropospheric and lower stratospheric column ozone changes in the two RCP scenarios. These results demonstrate how changes in stratospheric ozone are tightly linked to climate and show the benefit of including the processes interactively in climate models.

scholarly journals Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 8409-8438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Douglas Kinnison ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Ross J. Salawitch ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. >We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1σ uncertainty of 2043–2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025–2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the Northern Hemisphere reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ∼ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ∼ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular those of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model–model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that it is more important to have multi-member (at least three) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

scholarly journals Estimates of Ozone Return Dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Simulations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Douglas Kinnison ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Irene Cionni ◽  
Michaela Hegglin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column

Abstract. We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (±20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (with a 1-σ uncertainty of 2042–2052). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2046 (2042–2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2034 (2024–2044). In the polar regions, the return dates are 2062 (2055–2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2035 (2025–2040) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5–15 years, depending on the region. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach this value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine, which is the main driver of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10–20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, the effect in the simulations analysed here is small and at the limit of detectability from the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ~ 15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also changes ozone return by ~ 15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that is more important to have multi-member (at least 3) ensembles for each scenario from each established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic winters between 2005 and 2013 derived with ACE-FTS measurements

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 577-601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debora Griffin ◽  
Kaley A. Walker ◽  
Ingo Wohltmann ◽  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Markus Rex ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
First Time

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone loss inside the Arctic polar vortex for the winters between 2004–2005 and 2012–2013 has been quantified using measurements from the space-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). For the first time, an evaluation has been performed of six different ozone loss estimation methods based on the same single observational dataset to determine the Arctic ozone loss (mixing ratio loss profiles and the partial-column ozone losses between 380 and 550 K). The methods used are the tracer-tracer correlation, the artificial tracer correlation, the average vortex profile descent, and the passive subtraction with model output from both Lagrangian and Eulerian chemical transport models (CTMs). For the tracer-tracer, the artificial tracer, and the average vortex profile descent approaches, various tracers have been used that are also measured by ACE-FTS. From these seven tracers investigated (CH4, N2O, HF, OCS, CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113), we found that CH4, N2O, HF, and CFC-12 are the most suitable tracers for investigating polar stratospheric ozone depletion with ACE-FTS v3.5. The ozone loss estimates (in terms of the mixing ratio as well as total column ozone) are generally in good agreement between the different methods and among the different tracers. However, using the average vortex profile descent technique typically leads to smaller maximum losses (by approximately 15–30 DU) compared to all other methods. The passive subtraction method using output from CTMs generally results in slightly larger losses compared to the techniques that use ACE-FTS measurements only. The ozone loss computed, using both measurements and models, shows the greatest loss during the 2010–2011 Arctic winter. For that year, our results show that maximum ozone loss (2.1–2.7 ppmv) occurred at 460 K. The estimated partial-column ozone loss inside the polar vortex (between 380 and 550 K) using the different methods is 66–103, 61–95, 59–96, 41–89, and 85–122 DU for March 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Ozone loss is difficult to diagnose for the Arctic winters during 2005–2006, 2008–2009, 2011–2012, and 2012–2013, because strong polar vortex disturbance or major sudden stratospheric warming events significantly perturbed the polar vortex, thereby limiting the number of measurements available for the analysis of ozone loss.

scholarly journals Stratospheric Ozone Response to Sulfate Aerosol and Solar Dimming Climate Interventions based on the G6 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Tilmes ◽  
Daniele Visioni ◽  
Andy Jones ◽  
James Haywood ◽  
Roland Séférian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. This study assesses the impacts of sulfate aerosol intervention (SAI) and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone based on the G6 Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiments, called G6sulfur and G6solar. For G6sulfur the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden is increased to reflect some of the incoming solar radiation back into space in order to cool the surface climate, while for G6solar the global solar constant is reduced to achieve the same goal. The high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5 is used as the baseline experiment and surface temperature from the medium emission scenario SSP2-4.5 is the target. Based on three out of six Earth System Models (ESMs) that include interactive stratospheric chemistry, we find significant differences in the ozone distribution between G6solar and G6sulfur experiments compared to SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5, which differ by both region and season. Both SAI and solar dimming methods reduce incoming solar insolation and result in tropospheric temperatures comparable to SSP2-4.5 conditions. G6sulfur increases the concentration of absorbing sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere, which increases lower tropical stratospheric temperatures by between 5 to 13 K for six different ESMs, leading to changes in stratospheric transport. The increase of the aerosol burden also increases aerosol surface area density, which is important for heterogeneous chemical reactions. The resulting changes in ozone include a significant reduction of total column ozone (TCO) in the Southern Hemisphere polar region in October of 10 DU at the onset and up to 20 DU by the end of the century. The relatively small reduction in TCO for the multi-model mean in the first two decades results from variations in the required sulfur injections in the models and differences in the complexity of the chemistry schemes, with no significant ozone loss for 2 out of 3 models. The decrease in the second half of the 21st century counters increasing TCO between SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 due to the super-recovery resulting from increasing greenhouse gases. In contrast, in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, only a small initial decline in TCO is simulated, with little change in TCO by the end of the century compared to SSP5-8.5. All models consistently simulate an increase in TCO in the NH mid-latitudes up to 20 DU compared to SSP5-8.5, in addition to 20 DU increase resulting from increasing greenhouse gases between SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. G6solar counters zonal wind and tropical upwelling changes between SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 but does not change stratospheric temperatures. Solar dimming results in little change in TCO compared to SSP5-8.5 and does not counter the effects of the ozone super-recovery. Only in the tropics, G6solar results in an increase of TCO of up to 8 DU compared to SSP2-4.5, which may counter the projected reduction due to climate change in the high forcing future scenario. This work identifies differences in the response of SAI and solar dimming on ozone, which are at least partly due to differences and shortcomings in the complexity of aerosol microphysics, chemistry, and the description of ozone photolysis in the models. It also identifies that solar dimming, if viewed as an analog to SAI using a predominantly scattering aerosol, would, for the most part, not counter the potential harmful increase in TCO beyond historical values induced by increasing greenhouse gases.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone loss in the Arctic winters between 2005 and 2013 derived with ACE-FTS measurements

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debora Griffin ◽  
Kaley A. Walker ◽  
Ingo Wohltmann ◽  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Markus Rex ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Correlation Method ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Column Ozone

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone loss inside the Arctic polar vortex for the winters between 2004/2005 and 2012/2013 has been quantified using measurements from the space-borne Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). Six different methods, including tracer-tracer correlation, artificial tracer correlation, average vortex profile descent, and passive subtraction with model output from both Lagrangian and Eulerian chemical transport models (CTMs), have been employed to determine the Arctic ozone loss (mixing ratio loss profiles and the partial column ozone losses between 380 and 550 K). For the tracer-tracer, the artificial tracer, and the average vortex profile descent approaches, various tracers have been used. Here, we show that CH4, N2O, HF, and CFC-12 are suitable tracers for investigating polar stratospheric ozone depletion with ACE-FTS. The ozone loss estimates (in terms of the mixing ratio as well as total column ozone) are generally in good agreement between the different methods and among the different tracers. However, the tracer-tracer correlation method does not agree with the other estimation methods in March 2005 and using the average vortex profile descent technique typically leads to smaller maximum losses compared to all other methods. The passive subtraction method using output from CTMs generally results in smaller uncertainties and slightly larger losses compared to the techniques that use ACE-FTS measurements only. The ozone loss computed, using both measurements and models, shows the greatest loss during the 2010/2011 Arctic winter. For that year, our results show that maximum ozone loss (2.1–2.7 ppmv) occurred at 460 K. The estimated partial column ozone loss inside the polar vortex (between 380 K and 550 K) is 66–103 DU, 61–95 DU, 59–96 DU, 41–89 DU, and 85–122 DU for March 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011, respectively. Ozone loss is difficult to diagnose during 2005/2006, 2008/2009, 2011/2012, and 2012/2013 because strong polar vortex disturbance or major sudden stratospheric warming events significantly perturbed the polar vortex thereby limiting the number of measurements available for the analysis.

scholarly journals Ozone Variation Trends under Different CMIP6 Scenarios

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Lin Shang ◽  
Jiali Luo ◽  
Chunxiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
The Social ◽  
Tropical Troposphere ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Total Column

This study compares and analyzes simulations of ozone under different scenarios by three CMIP6 models (IPSL-CM6A, MRI-ESM2 and CESM-WACCM). Results indicate that as the social vulnerability and anthropogenic radiative forcing is increasing, the change of total column ozone in the tropical stratosphere is not linear. Compared to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 are more favorable for the increase in stratospheric ozone mass in the tropics. Arctic ozone would never recover under the SSP1-2.6 scenario; however, the Antarctica ozone would gradually recover in all scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the trend of tropical total column ozone is mainly determined by the trend of column ozone in the tropical troposphere. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, tropospheric ozone concentration will significantly increase; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, ozone concentration will distinctly increase in the middle and lower troposphere.

Comparison of observed lower stratospheric ozone changes with free-running chemistry climate models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Ball ◽  
Gabriel Chiodo ◽  
Marta Abalos ◽  
Justin Alsing
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Montreal Protocol ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

<p>The ozone layer was damaged last century due to the emissions of long-lived ozone depleting substances (ODSs). Following the Montreal Protocol that banned ODSs, a reduction in total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s. Today, ozone above 32 km displays a clear recovery. Nevertheless, a clear detection of TCO recovery in observations remains elusive, and there is mounting evidence of decreasing ozone in the lower stratosphere (below 24 km) in the tropics out to the mid-latitudes (30-60°). Chemistry climate models (CCMs) predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100, but not at mid-latitudes.<br> <br>Here, we compare the CCMVal-2 models, which informed the WMO 2014 ozone assessment and show similar tendencies to more recent CCMI data, with observations over 1998-2016. We find that over this period, modelled ozone declines in the tropics are similar to those seen in observations and are likely driven by increased tropical upwelling. Conversely, CCMs generally show ozone increases in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere where observations show a negative tendency. We provide evidence from JRA-55 and ERA-Interim reanalyses indicating that mid-latitude trends are due to enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics, in agreement with other studies. </p><p>Additional analysis of temperature and water vapour further supports our findings. Overall, our results suggest that expected changes in large scale circulation from increasing greenhouse gases may now already be underway. While model projections suggest extra-tropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their ability to simulate lower stratospheric changes in this region.</p>

scholarly journals On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry-climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Hannah Brown ◽  
N. Luke Abraham ◽  
Neil R. P. Harris ◽  
John A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Early Recovery ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Natural Cycles

Abstract. Total column ozone values from an ensemble of UM-UKCA model runs are examined to investigate different definitions of progress on the road to ozone recovery. This approach takes into account the internal atmospheric variability of the model in assessing the statistical significance of each definition. Three definitions of recovery are investigated: (i) a slowed rate of decline and the date of minimum column ozone; (ii) the identification of significant positive trends; and (iii) a return to historic values. A return to past thresholds is the last state to be achieved. However, while recovery may appear to be robust at a particular point of time, additional years of observations may lead to a reduced significance of trends due to natural variability (e.g. solar cycle, QBO, ENSO). This points to the need to ensure that the impact of natural cycles on total ozone is correctly described in statistical models, especially in the tropics where chemical depletion of the column is small. Trends for the 2000–2017 period are positive at most latitudes and are statistically significant when natural cycles are accounted for. This significance results largely from the large sample size of the multi-member ensemble. The influence of the natural cycles on trend determination is least at latitudes where the trends are sizeable. Thus, while ozone recovery can be identified in certain months over Antarctica, the mid-latitudes are the best place to identify early recovery as the trends are large compared to the variability. Over the Arctic, total column ozone is too variable for a signal to be easily detected: this arises both from the large dynamical interannual variability and from the large changes in chemical ozone loss from year to year. In the tropics, trends are too small compared to the natural variability to identify any statistical significance.

scholarly journals The Response of the Ozone Layer to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 3893-3907 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chiodo ◽  
L. M. Polvani ◽  
D. R. Marsh ◽  
A. Stenke ◽  
W. Ball ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract An accurate quantification of the stratospheric ozone feedback in climate change simulations requires knowledge of the ozone response to increased greenhouse gases. Here, an analysis is presented of the ozone layer response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentrations in four chemistry–climate models. The authors show that increased CO2 levels lead to a decrease in ozone concentrations in the tropical lower stratosphere, and an increase over the high latitudes and throughout the upper stratosphere. This pattern is robust across all models examined here, although important intermodel differences in the magnitude of the response are found. As a result of the cancellation between the upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone, the total column ozone response in the tropics is small, and appears to be model dependent. A substantial portion of the spread in the tropical column ozone is tied to intermodel spread in upwelling. The high-latitude ozone response is strongly seasonally dependent, and shows increases peaking in late winter and spring of each hemisphere, with prominent longitudinal asymmetries. The range of ozone responses to CO2 reported in this paper has the potential to induce significant radiative and dynamical effects on the simulated climate. Hence, these results highlight the need of using an ozone dataset consistent with CO2 forcing in models involved in climate sensitivity studies.

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