scholarly journals Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 111-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Rabuffetti ◽  
G. Ravazzani ◽  
S. Barbero ◽  
M. Mancini
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Large River ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Discharge Time ◽  
Po River

Abstract. A hydrological model for real time flood forecasting to Civil Protection services requires reliability and rapidity. At present, computational capabilities overcome the rapidity needs even when a fully distributed hydrological model is adopted for a large river catchment as the Upper Po river basin closed at Ponte Becca (nearly 40 000 km2). This approach allows simulating the whole domain and obtaining the responses of large as well as of medium and little sized sub-catchments. The FEST-WB hydrological model (Mancini, 1990; Montaldo et al., 2007; Rabuffetti et al., 2008) is implemented. The calibration and verification activities are based on more than 100 flood events, occurred along the main tributaries of the Po river in the period 2000–2003. More than 300 meteorological stations are used to obtain the forcing fields, 10 cross sections with continuous and reliable discharge time series are used for calibration while verification is performed on about 40 monitored cross sections. Furthermore meteorological forecasting models are used to force the hydrological model with Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for 36 h horizon in "operational setting" experiments. Particular care is devoted to understanding how QPF affects the accuracy of the Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs) and to assessing the QDF uncertainty impact on the warning system reliability. Results are presented either in terms of QDF and of warning issues highlighting the importance of an "operational based" verification approach.

scholarly journals Application of a distributed hydrological model to the design of a road inundation warning system for flash flood prone areas

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 805-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-A. Versini ◽  
E. Gaume ◽  
H. Andrieu
Keyword(s):  
Cross Sections ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Erosion Processes ◽  
Stage Of Development

Abstract. This paper presents an initial prototype of a distributed hydrological model used to map possible road inundations in a region frequently exposed to severe flash floods: the Gard region (South of France). The prototype has been tested in a pseudo real-time mode on five recent flash flood events for which actual road inundations have been inventoried. The results are promising: close to 100% probability of detection of actual inundations, inundations detected before they were reported by the road management field teams with a false alarm ratios not exceeding 30%. This specific case study differs from the standard applications of rainfall-runoff models to produce flood forecasts, focussed on a single or a limited number of gauged river cross sections. It illustrates that, despite their lack of accuracy, hydro-meteorological forecasts based on rainfall-runoff models, especially distributed models, contain valuable information for flood event management. The possible consequences of landslides, debris flows and local erosion processes, sometimes associated with flash floods, were not considered at this stage of development of the prototype. They are limited in the Gard region but should be taken into account in future developments of the approach to implement it efficiently in other areas more exposed to these phenomena such as the Alpine area.

A meta-model assisted framework of optimization of the Hydrological model parameters for accurate calibration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ammara Nusrat ◽  
Hamza Farooq Gabriel ◽  
Sajjad Haider ◽  
Muhammad Shahid
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Large River ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Dimensional Parameter ◽  
Input Parameters

<p> Increase in frequency of the floods is one of the noticeable climate change impacts. The efficient and optimized flood analysis system needs to be used for the reliable flood forecasting. The credibility and the reliability of the flood forecasting system is depending upon the framework used for its parameter optimization. Comprehensive framework has been presented to optimize the input parameters of the computationally extensive distributed hydrological model. A large river basin has the high spatio-temporal heterogeneity of aquifer and surface properties.  Estimating the parameters in fully distributed hydrological model is a challenging task. The parameter optimization becomes computationally more demanding when the model input parameters (30 to 100 even greater) have multi-dimensional parameter space, many output parameters which make the optimization problem multi-objective and large number of model simulations requirement for the optimization. Aforementioned challenges are met by introducing the methodology to optimize the input parameters of fully distributed hydrological model, following steps are included (1) screening of the parameters through Morris sensitivity analysis method in different flow periods, so that optimization would be performed for sensitive parameters, different scalar output functions are used in this regard (2) to emulate the hydrologic response of the dynamic model, surrogate models or meta-models are used (3) sampling of parameters values using the optimized ranges obtained from the meta-models; the results are evident that the parameter optimization using the proposed framework is efficient can be effectively performed.  The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed framework has been demonstrated through the accurate calibration of the model with fewer model runs. This study also demonstrates the importance and use of scalar functions in calculating sensitivity indices, when the model output is temporally variable. In addition, the parameter optimization using the proposed framework is efficient and present study can be used as reference for optimization of distributed hydrological model. </p><p> </p><p><strong>Keywords: </strong>Calibration, parameter ranking, Sensitivity analysis, Hydrological modeling, optimization</p>

scholarly journals Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system – the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Rabuffetti ◽  
G. Ravazzani ◽  
C. Corbari ◽  
M. Mancini
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Po River ◽  
Prediction And Prevention ◽  
Small Catchments

Abstract. In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydrometeorological events has grown due to the increased frequency of extreme rainstorms. Several research projects have been developed to test hydrometeorological models for real-time flood forecasting. However, flood forecasting systems are still not widespread in operational context. Real-world examples are mainly dedicated to the use of flood routing model, best suited for large river basins. For small basins, it is necessary to take advantage of the lag time between the onset of a rainstorm and the beginning of the hydrograph rise, with the use of rainfall-runoff transformation models. Nevertheless, when the lag time is very short, a rainfall predictor is required, as a result, meteorological models are often coupled with hydrological simulation. While this chaining allows floods to be forecasted on small catchments with response times ranging from 6 to 12 h it, however, causes new problems for the reliability of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and also creates additional accuracy problems for space and time scales. The aim of this work is to evaluate the degree to which uncertain QPF affects the reliability of the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for small catchments. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (FEST-WB) was developed and analysed in operational setting experiments, i.e. the hydrological model was forced with rain observation until the time of forecast and with the QPF for the successive period, as is usual in real-time procedures. Analysis focuses on the AMPHORE case studies in Piemonte in November 2002.

scholarly journals A hindcast study of the Piedmont 1994 flood: the CIMA Research Foundation hydro-meteorological forecasting chain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Parodi ◽  
Martina Lagasio ◽  
Agostino N. Meroni ◽  
Flavio Pignone ◽  
Francesco Silvestro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Nwp Model ◽  
North Western ◽  
Discharge Curves

AbstractBetween the 4th and the 6th of November 1994, Piedmont and the western part of Liguria (two regions in north-western Italy) were hit by heavy rainfalls that caused the flooding of the Po, the Tanaro rivers and several of their tributaries, causing 70 victims and the displacement of over 2000 people. At the time of the event, no early warning system was in place and the concept of hydro-meteorological forecasting chain was in its infancy, since it was still limited to a reduced number of research applications, strongly constrained by coarse-resolution modelling capabilities both on the meteorological and the hydrological sides. In this study, the skills of the high-resolution CIMA Research Foundation operational hydro-meteorological forecasting chain are tested in the Piedmont 1994 event. The chain includes a cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a stochastic rainfall downscaling model, and a continuous distributed hydrological model. This hydro-meteorological chain is tested in a set of operational configurations, meaning that forecast products are used to initialise and force the atmospheric model at the boundaries. The set consists of four experiments with different options of the microphysical scheme, which is known to be a critical parameterisation in this kind of phenomena. Results show that all the configurations produce an adequate and timely forecast (about 2 days ahead) with realistic rainfall fields and, consequently, very good peak flow discharge curves. The added value of the high resolution of the NWP model emerges, in particular, when looking at the location of the convective part of the event, which hit the Liguria region.

scholarly journals Post-event analysis and flash flood hydrology in Slovakia

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 304-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Silvia Kohnová ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
Oliver Horvát ◽  
Pavel Šťastný ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
Catchment Size ◽  
Flood Peaks

Abstract This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

scholarly journals Extending flood forecasting lead time in large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with distributed hydrological model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Li ◽  
Yangbo Chen ◽  
Huanyu Wang ◽  
Jianming Qin ◽  
Jie Li
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Warning

Abstract. Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. Latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1–15 days quantitative precipitation forecasting products at grid format, by coupling this product with distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe Model with the WRF QPF for a large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead time, including 24 hour, 48 hour and 72 hour, the grid resolution is 20 km × 20 km. The Liuxihe Model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property, the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also, it suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of WRF QPF decreases, so does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling Liuxihe Model with WRF QPF provides good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

scholarly journals Ensemble flood forecasting based on ensemble NWP and the GMKHM distributed hydrological model

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01108
Author(s):  
Lili Wang ◽  
Hongjun Bao
Keyword(s):  
Overland Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Numerical Weather

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The GMKHM distributed hydrological model, which is based on a mixed runoff generation model and overland flow routing model based on kinematic wave theory, and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the GMKHM model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for the anticipation of flood events several days ahead,, comparable with that driven by raingauge observation.

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