scholarly journals Processing and quality control with FY-3C/GNOS data used in numerical weather prediction applications

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi Liao ◽  
Sean Healy ◽  
Peng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Noise Estimate ◽  
Ionosphere Model ◽  
Angle Space ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
L1 And L2

Abstract. The Chinese radio occultation sounder GNOS (Global Navigation Occultation Sounder) is on the FY-3C satellite, which was launched on September 23, 2013. Currently, GNOS data is transmitted via the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) providing 450–500 profiles per day for numerical weather prediction applications. This paper describes the processing for the GNOS profiles with large biases, related to L2 signal degradation. A new extrapolation procedure in bending angle space corrects the L2 bending angles, using a thin ionosphere model, and the fitting relationship between L1 and L2. We apply the approach to improve the L2 extrapolation of GNOS. The new method can effectively eliminate about 90 % of the large departures. In addition to the procedure for the L2 degradation, this paper also describes our quality control (QC) for FY-3C/GNOS. A noise estimate for the new L2 extrapolation can be used as a QC parameter to evaluate the performance of the extrapolation. Mean phase delays of L1 and L2 in the tangent height interval of 60 to 80 km are analysed and applied in the QC as well. A statistical comparison between GNOS and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast data demonstrates that GNOS performs almost as well as GRAS, especially in the core region from around 10 to 35 km. The GNOS data with the new L2 extrapolation is suitable for assimilation into numerical weather prediction systems.

scholarly journals Processing and quality control of FY-3C GNOS data used in numerical weather prediction applications

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2679-2692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi Liao ◽  
Sean Healy ◽  
Peng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Noise Estimate ◽  
Ionosphere Model ◽  
Global Navigation ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Bending Angles

Abstract. The Chinese radio occultation sounder GNOS (Global Navigation Occultation Sounder) is on the FY-3C satellite, which was launched on 23 September 2013. Currently, GNOS data are transmitted via the Global Telecommunications System (GTS), providing 450–500 profiles per day for numerical weather prediction applications. This paper describes the processing of the GNOS profiles with large biases related to L2 signal degradation. A new extrapolation procedure in bending angle space corrects the L2 bending angles using a thin ionosphere model and the fitting relationship between L1 and L2. We apply the approach to improve the L2 extrapolation of GNOS. The new method can effectively eliminate about 90 % of large departures. In addition to the procedure for the L2 degradation, this paper also describes our quality control (QC) for FY-3C GNOS. A noise estimate for the new L2 extrapolation can be used as a QC parameter to evaluate the performance of the extrapolation. A statistical comparison between GNOS bending angles and short-range ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) forecast bending angles demonstrates that GNOS performs almost as well as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Receiver for Atmospheric Sounding (GRAS), especially in the core region from around 10 to 35 km. The GNOS data with the new L2 extrapolation are suitable for assimilation into numerical weather prediction systems.

scholarly journals A Fingerprinting Technique for Major Weather Events

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 1053-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Root ◽  
Paul Knight ◽  
George Young ◽  
Steven Greybush ◽  
Richard Grumm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Middle Atlantic ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Operational Forecasting ◽  
Multimodel Ensembles

Abstract Advances in numerical weather prediction have occurred on numerous fronts, from sophisticated physics packages in the latest mesoscale models to multimodel ensembles of medium-range predictions. Thus, the skill of numerical weather forecasts continues to increase. Statistical techniques have further increased the utility of these predictions. The availability of large atmospheric datasets and faster computers has made pattern recognition of major weather events a feasible means of statistically enhancing the value of numerical forecasts. This paper examines the utility of pattern recognition in assisting the prediction of severe and major weather in the Middle Atlantic region. An important innovation in this work is that the analog technique is applied to NWP forecast maps as a pattern-recognition tool rather than to analysis maps as a forecast tool. A technique is described that employs a new clustering algorithm to objectively identify the anomaly patterns or “fingerprints” associated with past events. The potential refinement and applicability of this method as an operational forecasting tool employed by comparing numerical weather prediction forecasts with fingerprints already identified for major weather events are also discussed.

scholarly journals SINGV – the Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction System for Singapore

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang-Yu Huang ◽  
Dale Barker ◽  
Stuart Webster ◽  
Anurag Dipankar ◽  
Adrian Lock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
The Impact

Extreme rainfall is one of the primary meteorological hazards in Singapore, as well as elsewhere in the deep tropics, and it can lead to significant local flooding. Since 2013, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) have been collaborating to develop a convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system, called SINGV. Its primary aim is to provide improved weather forecasts for Singapore and the surrounding region, with a focus on improved short-range prediction of localized heavy rainfall. This paper provides an overview of the SINGV development, the latest NWP capabilities at MSS and some key results of evaluation. The paper describes science advances relevant to the development of any km-scale NWP suitable for the deep tropics and provides some insights into the impact of local data assimilation and utility of ensemble predictions.

scholarly journals Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Schmidt ◽  
G. Turek ◽  
M. P. Clark ◽  
M. Uddstrom ◽  
J. R. Dymond
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Infinite Slope Stability Model

Abstract. A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO) Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP) are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM) to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

scholarly journals A Diagram Depicting Forecast Skill and Predictability

1984 ◽  
Vol 65 (7) ◽  
pp. 701-703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A. Anthes ◽  
David P. Baumhefner
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Atmospheric Phenomena

In operational numerical weather prediction systems, both observations and numerical models contribute to the skill of the forecast. A simple diagram representing the relative contributions of observations and models to the current level of forecast skill and to the ultimate predictability of atmospheric phenomena is interpreted in this note. The forecast skill of 500 mb heights and an estimate of the ultimate predictability of this variable are used in a quantitative illustration of the diagram.

scholarly journals Joint Exploitation of SAR and GNSS for Atmospheric Phase Screens Retrieval Aimed at Numerical Weather Prediction Model Ingestion

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Manzoni ◽  
Andrea Virgilio Monti-Guarnieri ◽  
Eugenio Realini ◽  
Giovanna Venuti
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Fast Method ◽  
Total Delay ◽  
Dense Area ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Phase Screens

This paper proposes a simple and fast method to estimate Atmospheric Phase Screens (APSs) by jointly exploit a stack of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images and a dataset of GNSS-derived atmospheric product. The output of this processing is conceived to be ingested by Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWPMs) to improve weather forecasts. In order to provide wide and dense area coverage and to respect requirements in terms of spatial resolution of ingestion products in NWPMs, both Permanent Scatterers (PSs) and Distributed Scatterers (DSs) are jointly exploited. While the formers are by definition stable targets, but unevenly distributed, the latter are ubiquitous but stable only within a certain temporal baseline that can vary depending on the operational frequency of the radar. The proposed method is thus particularly suited for C, L, and P band missions with low temporal baseline between two consecutive acquisitions of the same scene: these conditions, that are both necessary to provide the dense space-time coverage required by meteorologists, allow for a reliable and robust estimation of APSs thanks to the intrinsic limitation of temporal decorrelation. The proposed technique integrates Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products computed on a very sparse grid from a network of GNSS stations to correct for SAR orbital errors and to provide the missing phase constant from the derived APS map. In this paper, the complete workflow is explained, and a comparison of the derived APSs is performed with phase screens derived from state-of-the-art SAR processing workflow (SqueeSAR®).

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