scholarly journals On ALADIN precipitation modeling and validation in an Alpine watershed

2003 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 627-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Ahrens ◽  
K. Jasper ◽  
J. Gurtz
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Mountain Meteorology ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Promising Tool

Abstract. Highly resolved precipitation forecasts are necessary in many applications, especially in mountain meteorology and flash flood forecasts for small- to medium-sized alpine watersheds. Here we present precipitation forecasts simulated by the limited area model ALADIN applying different grid resolutions (Dx = 10 km and 4 km). Target area of the investigations is the Alpine Ticino-Verzasca-Maggia watershed (total area: 2627 km2). We discuss problems of validation of high-resolution precipitation forecasts by comparison with observed precipitation fields and apply an indirect validation approach by using ALADIN forecasts as input to hydrologic simulations. These simulations are carried out with the distributed hydrologic model WaSiM-ETH (Dx = 500 m, Dt = 1 h). The time step of meteorological input to WaSiM-ETH is fixed at 1 h but spatial resolution varies. The main result of the validation experiments for three heavy precipitation events is, that coarser-scale ALADIN forecasts (in model version 11.2) provide better precipitation predictors for hydrologic modeling than higher-resolution forecasts. The experiments demonstrate that hydrologic modeling is a promising tool for the evaluation of high-resolution precipitation fields.Key words. Hydrology (floods) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (mesoscale meteorology; precipitation)

scholarly journals Moving toward Subkilometer Modeling Grid Spacings: Impacts on Atmospheric and Hydrological Simulations of Extreme Flash Flood–Inducing Storms

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos S. Bartsotas ◽  
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽  
Stavros Solomos ◽  
George Kallos
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Complex Processes ◽  
The Alps ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modeling

Abstract Flash floods develop over small spatiotemporal scales, an attribute that makes their predictability a particularly challenging task. The serious threat they pose for human lives, along with damage estimates that can exceed one billion U.S. dollars in some cases, urge toward more accurate forecasting. Recent advances in computational science combined with state-of-the-art atmospheric models allow atmospheric simulations at very fine (i.e., subkilometer) grid scales, an element that is deemed important for capturing the initiation and evolution of flash flood–triggering storms. This work provides some evidence on the relative gain that can be expected from the adoption of such subkilometer model grids. A necessary insight into the complex processes of these severe incidents is provided through the simulation of three flood-inducing heavy precipitation events in the Alps for a range of model grid scales (0.25, 1, and 4 km) with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System–Integrated Community Limited Area Modeling System (RAMS–ICLAMS) atmospheric model. A distributed hydrologic model [Kinematic Local Excess Model (KLEM)] is forced with the various atmospheric simulation outputs to further evaluate the relative impact of atmospheric model resolution on the hydrologic prediction. The use of a finer grid is beneficial in most cases, yet there are events where the improvement is marginal. This underlines why the use of finer scales is a step in the right direction but not a solitary component of a successful flash flood–forecasting recipe.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Flood Forecasting with a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System: Selected Case Studies

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 897-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Verbunt ◽  
A. Walser ◽  
J. Gurtz ◽  
A. Montani ◽  
C. Schär
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Runoff Forecasting

Abstract A high-resolution atmospheric ensemble forecasting system is coupled to a hydrologic model to investigate probabilistic runoff forecasts for the alpine tributaries of the Rhine River basin (34 550 km2). Five-day ensemble forecasts consisting of 51 members, generated with the global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are downscaled with the limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM). The resulting limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) uses a horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and provides one-hourly output for driving the distributed hydrologic model Precipitation–Runoff–Evapotranspiration–Hydrotope (PREVAH) hydrologic response unit (HRU) with a resolution of 500 × 500 m2 and a time step of 1 h. The hydrologic model component is calibrated for the river catchments considered, which are characterized by highly complex topography, for the period 1997–98 using surface observations, and validated for 1999–2002. This study explores the feasibility of atmospheric ensemble predictions for runoff forecasting, in comparison with deterministic atmospheric forcing. Detailed analysis is presented for two case studies: the spring 1999 flood event affecting central Europe due to a combination of snowmelt and heavy precipitation, and the November 2002 flood in the Alpine Rhine catchment. For both cases, the deterministic simulations yield forecast failures, while the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic EPS provides appropriate probabilistic forecast guidance with early indications for extreme floods. It is further shown that probabilistic runoff forecasts using a subsample of EPS members, selected by a cluster analysis, properly represent the forecasts using all 51 EPS members, while forecasts from randomly chosen subsamples reveal a reduced spread compared to the representative members. Additional analyses show that the representation of horizontal advection of precipitation in the atmospheric model may be crucial for flood forecasts in alpine catchments.

The Use of an Automated Nowcasting System to Forecast Flash Floods in an Urban Watershed

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hatim O. Sharif ◽  
David Yates ◽  
Rita Roberts ◽  
Cynthia Mueller
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Urban Settings ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract Flash flooding represents a significant hazard to human safety and a threat to property. Simulation and prediction of floods in complex urban settings requires high-resolution precipitation estimates and distributed hydrologic modeling. The need for reliable flash flood forecasting has increased in recent years, especially in urban communities, because of the high costs associated with flood occurrences. Several storm nowcast systems use radar to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts that can potentially afford great benefits to flood warning and short-term forecasting in urban settings. In this paper, the potential benefits of high-resolution weather radar data, physically based distributed hydrologic modeling, and quantitative precipitation nowcasting for urban hydrology and flash flood prediction were demonstrated by forcing a physically based distributed hydrologic model with precipitation forecasts made by a convective storm nowcast system to predict flash floods in a small, highly urbanized catchment in Denver, Colorado. Two rainfall events on 5 and 8 July 2001 in the Harvard Gulch watershed are presented that correspond to times during which the storm nowcast system was operated. Results clearly indicate that high-resolution radar-rainfall estimates and advanced nowcasting can potentially lead to improvements in flood warning and forecasting in urban watersheds, even for short-lived events on small catchments. At lead times of 70 min before the occurrence of peak discharge, forecast accuracies of approximately 17% in peak discharge and 10 min in peak timing were achieved for a 10 km2 highly urbanized catchment.

scholarly journals Extreme runoff response to short-duration convective rainfall in South-West Germany

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 10739-10780
Author(s):  
V. Ruiz-Villanueva ◽  
M. Borga ◽  
D. Zoccatelli ◽  
L. Marchi ◽  
E. Gaume ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Structure Evolution ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
South West

Abstract. The 2 June 2008 flood-producing storm on the Starzel river basin in South-West Germany is examined as a prototype for organized convective systems that dominate the upper tail of the precipitation frequency distribution and are likely responsible for the flash flood peaks in this region. The availability of high-resolution rainfall estimates from radar observations and a rain gauge network, together with indirect peak discharge estimates from a detailed post-event survey, provides the opportunity to study the hydrometeorological and hydrological mechanisms associated with this extreme storm and the ensuing flood. Radar-derived rainfall, streamgauge data and indirect estimates of peak discharges are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. The influence of storm structure, evolution and motion on the modeled flood hydrograph is examined by using the "spatial moments of catchment rainfall" (Zoccatelli et al., 2011). It is shown that downbasin storm motion had a noticeable impact on flood peak magnitude. Small runoff ratios (less than 20%) characterized the runoff response. The flood response can be reasonably well reproduced with the distributed hydrological model, using high resolution rainfall observations and model parameters calibrated at a river section which includes most of the area impacted by the storm.

High-resolution pan-European multi-model simulations of hydrologic states and fluxes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bibi S Naz ◽  
Wendy Sharples ◽  
Klaus Goergen ◽  
Stefan Kollet
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Groundwater Flow ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Step ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Community Land Model

<p> <span>High-resolution large-scale predictions of hydrologic states and fluxes are important for many regional-scale applications and water resource management. However, because of uncertainties related to forcing data, model structural errors arising from simplified representations of hydrological processes or uncertain model parameters, model simulations remain uncertain. To quantify this uncertainty, multi-model simulations were performed at 3km resolution over the European continent using the Community Land Model (CLM3.5) and the ParFlow hydrologic model. While Parflow uses a similar approach as CLM in simulating the snow, vegetation and land-atmosphere exchange processes, it simulates three-dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow solving Richards equation and overland flow with a two-dimensional kinematic wave approximation. </span><span>The </span><span>CLM</span><span>3.5</span><span> uses a simple groundwater model to account for groundwater recharge and discharge processes. Both models were driven with the COSMO-REA6 reanalysis dataset at 6km resolution for the time period from 2000 to 2006 at an hourly time step, and both used the same datasets for the static input variables (such as topography, vegetation and soil properties). The performance of both models was analyzed through comparisons with independent observations including satellite-derived and in-situ soil moisture, evapotranspiration, river discharge, water table depth and total water storage datasets. Overall, both models capture the interannual variability in the hydrologic states and fluxes well, however differences in performance between models showed the uncertainty associated with the representation of hydrological processes, such as groundwater flow and soil moisture and its control on latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface.</span></p>

scholarly journals An online trajectory module (version 1.0) for the non-hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model COSMO

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1223-1257
Author(s):  
A. K. Miltenberger ◽  
S. Pfahl ◽  
H. Wernli
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Flow Distortion ◽  
Cosmo Model

Abstract. A module to calculate online trajectories has been implemented into the non-hydrostatic limited-area weather prediction and climate model COSMO. Whereas offline trajectories are calculated with wind fields from model output, which is typically available every one to six hours, online trajectories use the simulated wind field at every model time step (typically less than a minute) to solve the trajectory equation. As a consequence, online trajectories much better capture the short-term temporal fluctuations of the wind field, which is particularly important for mesoscale flows near topography and convective clouds, and they do not suffer from temporal interpolation errors between model output times. The numerical implementation of online trajectories in the COSMO model is based upon an established offline trajectory tool and takes full account of the horizontal domain decomposition that is used for parallelization of the COSMO model. Although a perfect workload balance cannot be achieved for the trajectory module (due to the fact that trajectory positions are not necessarily equally distributed over the model domain), the additional computational costs are fairly small for high-resolution simulations. Various options have been implemented to initialize online trajectories at different locations and times during the model simulation. As a first application of the new COSMO module an Alpine North Föhn event in summer 1987 has been simulated with horizontal resolutions of 2.2 km, 7 km, and 14 km. It is shown that low-tropospheric trajectories calculated offline with one- to six-hourly wind fields can significantly deviate from trajectories calculated online. Deviations increase with decreasing model grid spacing and are particularly large in regions of deep convection and strong orographic flow distortion. On average, for this particular case study, horizontal and vertical positions between online and offline trajectories differed by 50–190 km and 150–750 m, respectively, after 24 h. This first application illustrates the potential for Lagrangian studies of mesoscale flows in high-resolution convection-resolving simulations using online trajectories.

scholarly journals An online trajectory module (version 1.0) for the nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model COSMO

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1989-2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Miltenberger ◽  
S. Pfahl ◽  
H. Wernli
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Flow Distortion ◽  
Computational Costs ◽  
Cosmo Model

Abstract. A module to calculate online trajectories has been implemented into the nonhydrostatic limited-area weather prediction and climate model COSMO. Whereas offline trajectories are calculated with wind fields from model output, which is typically available every one to six hours, online trajectories use the simulated resolved wind field at every model time step (typically less than a minute) to solve the trajectory equation. As a consequence, online trajectories much better capture the short-term temporal fluctuations of the wind field, which is particularly important for mesoscale flows near topography and convective clouds, and they do not suffer from temporal interpolation errors between model output times. The numerical implementation of online trajectories in the COSMO-model is based upon an established offline trajectory tool and takes full account of the horizontal domain decomposition that is used for parallelization of the COSMO-model. Although a perfect workload balance cannot be achieved for the trajectory module (due to the fact that trajectory positions are not necessarily equally distributed over the model domain), the additional computational costs are found to be fairly small for the high-resolution simulations described in this paper. The computational costs may, however, vary strongly depending on the number of trajectories and trace variables. Various options have been implemented to initialize online trajectories at different locations and times during the model simulation. As a first application of the new COSMO-model module, an Alpine north foehn event in summer 1987 has been simulated with horizontal resolutions of 2.2, 7 and 14 km. It is shown that low-tropospheric trajectories calculated offline with one- to six-hourly wind fields can significantly deviate from trajectories calculated online. Deviations increase with decreasing model grid spacing and are particularly large in regions of deep convection and strong orographic flow distortion. On average, for this particular case study, horizontal and vertical positions between online and offline trajectories differed by 50–190 km and 150–750 m, respectively, after 24 h. This first application illustrates the potential for Lagrangian studies of mesoscale flows in high-resolution convection-resolving simulations using online trajectories.

scholarly journals Using High-Resolution Satellite Rainfall Products to Simulate a Major Flash Flood Event in Northern Italy

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽  
Marco Borga
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Event ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Satellite Rainfall

Abstract Effective flash flood warning procedures are usually hampered by observational limitations of precipitation over mountainous basins where flash floods occur. Satellite rainfall estimates are available over complex terrain regions, offering a potentially viable solution to the observational coverage problem. However, satellite estimates of heavy rainfall rates are associated with significant biases and random errors that nonlinearly propagate in hydrologic modeling, imposing severe limitations on the use of these products in flood forecasting. In this study, the use of three quasi-global and near-real-time high-resolution satellite rainfall products for simulating flash floods over complex terrain basins are investigated. The study uses a major flash flood event that occurred during 29 August 2003 on a medium size mountainous basin (623 km2) in the eastern Italian Alps. Comparison of satellite rainfall with rainfall derived from gauge-calibrated weather radar estimates showed that although satellite products suffer from large biases they could represent the temporal variability of basin-averaged precipitation. Propagation of satellite rainfall through a distributed hydrologic model revealed that systematic error in rainfall was severely magnified when transformed to error in runoff under dry initial soil conditions. Simulation hydrographs became meaningful only after recalibrating the model for each satellite rainfall input separately. However, the unrealistic values of model parameters after recalibration show that this approach is erroneous and that model recalibration using satellite rainfall data should be treated with care. Overall, this study highlights the need for improvement of satellite rainfall retrieval algorithms in order to allow a more appropriate use of satellite rainfall products for flash flood applications.

Advances and challenges of the French operational flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Demargne ◽  
Catherine Fouchier ◽  
Didier Organde ◽  
Olivier Piotte ◽  
Anne Belleudy
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Parameters Estimation ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Flood Warning System ◽  
High Flood

<p align="justify"><span>Since March 2017, t</span><span>he French flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash, provides warnings for small-to-medium ungauged basins for about 10,000 municipalities to help emergency services better mitigate potential impacts of ongoing and upcoming flash flood events. Set up by the Ministry in charge of Environment, this system complements flood warnings produced by the Vigicrues procedure for French monitored rivers. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA, Vigicrues Flash currently ingests radar-gauge rainfall grids at a 1-km resolution into a conceptual distributed rainfall-runoff model. Real-time peak discharge estimated on any river cell are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles (estimated with the same hydrological model). Automated warnings are issued for rivers exceeding the high flood and very high flood thresholds (defined as years of return periods) and for the associated municipalities that might be impacted. This service shares a web platform for the dissemination and communication of early warnings and hazard map displays with the APIC heavy rainfall warning service from Météo-France. </span></p><p align="justify"><span>To better anticipate flash flood events and extend the coverage of the Vigicrues Flash service, the hydrological modeling is being enhanced within the SMASH </span><span>(</span><span>S</span><span>patially-distributed </span><span>M</span><span>odelling and </span><span>AS</span><span>similation for </span><span>H</span><span>ydrology) </span><span>platform developed by INRAE (formerly Irstea). For the upcoming operational update of Vigicrues Flash, a simplified distributed hydrologic model is continuously run at a 15-minute time step and a 1-km resolution. It includes only 2 parameters per cell, controlling respectively a production reservoir and a transfer reservoir from the Génie Rural (GR) conceptual models. Cross-validation and regionalization of these two parameters have been improved to better account for basins spatial heterogeneities while optimizing flash flood warning performance. Evaluation results for 921 French basins on the 2007-2019 period show improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead time. Current developments aim to integrate a cell-to-cell routing component and improve parameters estimation at the national scale with the variational calibration schemes recently developed on the SMASH platform by Jay-Allemand et al. (2020). Challenges of including high-resolution precipitation nowcasts and accounting for the hydrometeorological uncertainties via data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are also discussed based on ongoing SMASH research.</span></p><p align="justify"> </p><p align="justify">Jay-Allemand, M., Javelle, P., Gejadze, I., Arnaud, P., Malaterre, P.-O., Fine, J.-A., and Organde, D.: On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519–5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document