Improving the monitoring of deciduous broadleaf phenology using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 16 and 17
Abstract. Monitoring leaf phenology allows for tracking the progression of climate change and seasonal variations in a variety of organismal and ecosystem processes. Networks of finite-scale remote sensing, such as the PhenoCam Network, provide valuable information on phenological state at high temporal resolution, but have limited coverage. To more broadly remotely sense phenology, satellite-based data that has lower temporal resolution has primarily been used (e.g., 16-day MODIS NDVI product). Recent versions of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16 and -17) allow the monitoring of NDVI at temporal scales comparable to that of PhenoCam throughout most of the western hemisphere. Here we examine the current capacity of this new data to measure the phenology of deciduous broadleaf forests for the first two full calendar years of data (2018 and 2019) by fitting double-logistic Bayesian models and comparing the start, middle, and end of season transition dates to those obtained from PhenoCam and MODIS 16-day NDVI and EVI products. Compared to the MODIS indices, GOES was more correlated with PhenoCam at the start and middle of spring, but had a larger bias (3.35 ± 0.03 days later than PhenoCam) at the end of spring. Satellite-based autumn transition dates were mostly uncorrelated with those of PhenoCam. PhenoCam data produced significantly more certain (all p-values