scholarly journals Calcium carbonate production response to future ocean warming and acidification

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 11863-11897
Author(s):  
A. J. Pinsonneault ◽  
H. D. Matthews ◽  
E. D. Galbraith ◽  
A. Schmittner
Keyword(s):  
Calcium Carbonate ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Saturation State ◽  
Carbonate Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are acidifying the ocean, affecting calcification rates in pelagic organisms and thereby modifying the oceanic alkalinity cycle. However, the responses of pelagic calcifying organisms to acidification vary widely between species, contributing uncertainty to predictions of atmospheric CO2 and the resulting climate change. Meanwhile, ocean warming caused by rising CO2 is expected to drive increased growth rates of all pelagic organisms, including calcifiers. It thus remains unclear whether anthropogenic CO2 will ultimately increase or decrease the globally-integrated pelagic calcification rate. Here, we assess the importance of this uncertainty by introducing a variable dependence of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production on calcite saturation state (ΩCaCO3) in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, an intermediate complexity coupled carbon-climate model. In a series of model simulations, we examine the impact of this parameterization on global ocean carbon cycling under two CO2 emissions scenarios, both integrated to the year 3500. The simulations show a significant sensitivity of the vertical and surface horizontal alkalinity gradients to the parameterization, as well as the removal of alkalinity from the ocean through CaCO3 burial. These sensitivities result in an additional oceanic uptake of carbon when calcification depends on ΩCaCO3 (of up to 13 % of total carbon emissions), compared to the case where calcification is insensitive to acidification. In turn, this response causes a reduction of global surface air temperature of up to 0.4 °C in year 3500, a 13 % reduction in the amplitude of warming. Narrowing these uncertainties will require better understanding of both temperature and acidification effects on pelagic calcifiers. Preliminary examination suggests that alkalinity observations can be used to constrain the range of uncertainties and may exclude large sensitivities of CaCO3 production on ΩCaCO3.

scholarly journals Calcium carbonate production response to future ocean warming and acidification

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2351-2364 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Pinsonneault ◽  
H. D. Matthews ◽  
E. D. Galbraith ◽  
A. Schmittner
Keyword(s):  
Calcium Carbonate ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
State Dependence ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Saturation State ◽  
Carbonate Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are acidifying the ocean, affecting calcification rates in pelagic organisms, and thereby modifying the oceanic carbon and alkalinity cycles. However, the responses of pelagic calcifying organisms to acidification vary widely between species, contributing uncertainty to predictions of atmospheric CO2 and the resulting climate change. At the same time, ocean warming caused by rising CO2 is expected to drive increased growth rates of all pelagic organisms, including calcifiers. It thus remains unclear whether anthropogenic CO2 emissions will ultimately increase or decrease pelagic calcification rates. Here, we assess the importance of this uncertainty by introducing a dependence of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) production on calcite saturation state (ΩCaCO3) in an intermediate complexity coupled carbon-climate model. In a series of model simulations, we examine the impact of several variants of this dependence on global ocean carbon cycling between 1800 and 3500 under two different CO2 emissions scenarios. Introducing a calcification-saturation state dependence has a significant effect on the vertical and surface horizontal alkalinity gradients, as well as on the removal of alkalinity from the ocean through CaCO3 burial. These changes result in an additional oceanic uptake of carbon when calcification depends on ΩCaCO3 (of up to 270 Pg C), compared to the case where calcification does not depend on acidification. In turn, this response causes a reduction of global surface air temperature of up to 0.4 °C in year 3500. Different versions of the model produced varying results, and narrowing this range of uncertainty will require better understanding of both temperature and acidification effects on pelagic calcifiers. Nevertheless, our results suggest that alkalinity observations can be used to constrain model results, and may not be consistent with the model versions that simulated stronger responses of CaCO3 production to changing saturation state.

scholarly journals Seasonal Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation in the FSU Climate Model Coupled to the CLM2

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 3217-3228 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Shin ◽  
S. Cocke ◽  
T. E. LaRow ◽  
James J. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Convective Scheme

Abstract The current Florida State University (FSU) climate model is upgraded by coupling the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model Version 2 (CLM2) as its land component in order to make a better simulation of surface air temperature and precipitation on the seasonal time scale, which is important for crop model application. Climatological and seasonal simulations with the FSU climate model coupled to the CLM2 (hereafter FSUCLM) are compared to those of the control (the FSU model with the original simple land surface treatment). The current version of the FSU model is known to have a cold bias in the temperature field and a wet bias in precipitation. The implementation of FSUCLM has reduced or eliminated this bias due to reduced latent heat flux and increased sensible heat flux. The role of the land model in seasonal simulations is shown to be more important during summertime than wintertime. An additional experiment that assimilates atmospheric forcings produces improved land-model initial conditions, which in turn reduces the biases further. The impact of various deep convective parameterizations is examined as well to further assess model performance. The land scheme plays a more important role than the convective scheme in simulations of surface air temperature. However, each convective scheme shows its own advantage over different geophysical locations in precipitation simulations.

scholarly journals On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5681-5693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leela M. Frankcombe ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Jules B. Kajtar ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Byron A. Steinman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.

scholarly journals Simulation of black carbon in snow and its climate impact in the Canadian Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (13) ◽  
pp. 18839-18882 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Namazi ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. N. S. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A new physically-based parameterization of black carbon (BC) in snow was developed and implemented in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Simulated BC snow mixing ratios and BC snow radiative forcings are in good agreement with measurements and results from other models. Simulations with the improved model yield considerable trends in regional BC concentrations in snow and BC snow radiative forcings during the time period from 1950–1959 to 2000–2009. Increases in radiative forcings for Asia and decreases for Europe and North America are found to be associated with changes in BC emissions. Additional sensitivity simulations were performed in order to study the impact of BC emission changes between 1950–1959 and 2000–2009 on surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface air temperature. Results from these simulations indicate that impacts of BC emission changes on snow albedos between these two decades are small and not significant. Overall, changes in BC concentrations in snow have much smaller impacts on the cryosphere than the net warming surface air temperatures during the second half of the 20th century.

scholarly journals Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. e2015265118
Author(s):  
Christopher E. Cornwall ◽  
Steeve Comeau ◽  
Niklas A. Kornder ◽  
Chris T. Perry ◽  
Ruben van Hooidonk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coral Reef ◽  
Calcium Carbonate ◽  
Coral Reefs ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Coral Cover ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Ocean Warming ◽  
Carbonate Production ◽  
Near Term

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world’s coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Eco-efficient flight trajectories – Using a Lagrangian approach in EMAC to investigate contrail formation in the mid latitudes 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Peter ◽  
Sigrun Matthes ◽  
Christine Frömming ◽  
Volker Grewe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Aircraft Trajectories ◽  
The Impact

<p>Air transport has for a long time been linked to environmental issues like pollution, noise and climate change. While CO2 emissions are the main focus in public discussions, non-CO2 emissions of aviation may have a similar impact on the climate as aviation's carbon dioxide, e.g. contrail cirrus, nitrogen oxides or aviation induced cloudiness. While the effects of CO2 on climate are independent of location and situation during release, non-CO2 effects such as contrail formation vary depending on meteorological background. Previous studies investigated the influence of different weather situations on aviation’s climate change contribution, identifying climate sensitive regions and generating data products which enable air traffic management (ATM) to plan for climate optimized trajectories.</p> <p>The research presented here focuses on the further development of methods to determine the sensitivity of the atmosphere to aviation emissions with respect to climate effects in order to determine climate optimized aircraft trajectories. While previous studies focused on characterizing the North Atlantic Flight Corridor region, this study aims to extend the geographic scope by performing Lagrangian simulations in a global climate model EMAC for the northern hemispheric extratropical regions and tropical latitudes. This study addresses how realistically the physical conditions and processes for contrail formation and life cycle are represented in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere by comparing them to airborne observations (HALO measurement campaign, CARIBIC/IAGOS scheduled flight measurements), examining key variables such as temperature or humidity. Direct comparison of model data with observations using clusters of data provides insight into the extent to which systematic biases exist that are relevant to the climate effects of contrails. We perform this comparison for different vertical resolutions to assess which vertical resolution in the EMAC model is well suited for studying contrail formation. Together with this model evaluation using aircraft measurements, the overall concept for studying the life cycle of contrails in the modular global climate model EMAC is introduced. Hereby, the concept for the development of a MET service that can be provided to ATM to evaluate contrail formation and its impact on the climate along planned aircraft trajectories is presented.</p> <p>Within the ClimOP collaborative project, we can investigate which physical processes determine the effects of contrails on climate and study their spatial and temporal variation. In addition, these climate change functions enable case studies that assess the impact of contrails on climate along trajectories and use alternative trajectories that avoid these regions of the atmosphere that have the potential to form contrails with a large radiative effect.</p> <p>This study is part of the ClimOP project and has received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement N° 875503 (ClimOP) and from the SESAR Joint Undertaking under grant agreements No 699395 (FlyATM4E). </p>

scholarly journals Simulation of black carbon in snow and its climate impact in the Canadian Global Climate Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (18) ◽  
pp. 10887-10904 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Namazi ◽  
K. von Salzen ◽  
J. N. S. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A new physically based parameterisation of black carbon (BC) in snow was developed and implemented in the Canadian Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4.2). Simulated BC snow mixing ratios and BC snow radiative forcings are in good agreement with measurements and results from other models. Simulations with the improved model yield considerable trends in regional BC concentrations in snow and BC snow radiative forcings during the time period from 1950–1959 to 2000–2009. Increases in radiative forcings for Asia and decreases for Europe and North America are found to be associated with changes in BC emissions. Additional sensitivity simulations were performed in order to study the impact of BC emission changes between 1950–1959 and 2000–2009 on surface albedo, snow cover fraction, and surface air temperature. Results from these simulations indicate that impacts of BC emission changes on snow albedos between these 2 decades are small and not significant. Overall, changes in BC concentrations in snow have much smaller impacts on the cryosphere than the net warming surface air temperatures during the second half of the 20th century.

scholarly journals The Southern Hemisphere Westerlies in a Warming World: Propping Open the Door to the Deep Ocean

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
pp. 6382-6390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joellen L. Russell ◽  
Keith W. Dixon ◽  
Anand Gnanadesikan ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
J. R. Toggweiler
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide

Abstract A coupled climate model with poleward-intensified westerly winds simulates significantly higher storage of heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean in the future when compared with the storage in a model with initially weaker, equatorward-biased westerlies. This difference results from the larger outcrop area of the dense waters around Antarctica and more vigorous divergence, which remains robust even as rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels induce warming that reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean. These results imply that the impact of warming on the stratification of the global ocean may be reduced by the poleward intensification of the westerlies, allowing the ocean to remove additional heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Quantifying Southern Annular Mode paleo-reconstruction skill in a model framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1819-1839
Author(s):  
Willem Huiskamp ◽  
Shayne McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Network Size ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Broad Region

Abstract. Past attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo-archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM but also to assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy–SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudoproxy framework with output from the GFDL CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of the reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of the inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface air temperature (SAT)-derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy–SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a small role in reconstructions, but the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions are most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region with a network size of at least 70 proxies.

scholarly journals Modeling the climate impact of road transport, maritime shipping and aviation over the period 1860–2100 with an AOGCM

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1449-1480 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
D. Cariolle ◽  
H. Teyssèdre ◽  
D. Salas ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Maritime Shipping ◽  
Transport Maritime ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. For the period 1860–2100 (SRES scenario A1B for 2000–2100), the impact of road transport, maritime shipping and aviation on climate is studied using an Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). In addition to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from these transport sectors, most of their non-CO2 emissions are also taken into account, i.e. the forcing from ozone, methane, black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, CFC-12 and HFC-134a from air conditioning systems in cars, and contrails. For the year 2000, the CO2 emissions from all sectors together induce a global annual-mean surface air temperature increase of around 0.1 K. In 2100, the CO2 emissions from road transport induce a global mean warming of 0.3 K, while shipping and aviation each contribute 0.1 K. For road transport, the non-CO2 impact is largest between 2000 and 2050 (of the order of 0.1 K) becoming smaller at the end of the 21st century. The non-CO2 impact from shipping is negative, reaching −0.1 K between 2050 and 2100, while for aviation it is positive and its estimate varies between 0 and 0.15 K in 2100. The largest changes in sea-level from thermal expansion in 2000 are 1.6 mm for the CO2 emissions from road transport, and around −3 mm from the non-CO2 effects of shipping. In 2100, sea-level rises by 18 mm due to the CO2 emissions from road transport and by 4.6 mm due to shipping or aviation CO2 emissions. Non-CO2 changes are of the order of 1 mm for road transport, −6.6 mm for shipping, and the estimate for aviation varies between −1.2 and 4.3 mm. When focusing on the geographical distribution, the non-CO2 impact from road transport and shipping on the surface air temperature is only slightly stronger in northern than in southern mid-latitudes, while the impact from aviation can be a factor of 5 stronger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere. Further it is observed that most of the impacts are more pronounced at high latitudes, and that the non-CO2 emissions from aviation strongly impact the NAO index. The impacts on the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and the Niño3.4 index are also quantified.

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