scholarly journals A Bayesian Approach to Historical Climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15<sup>th</sup> Century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantal Camenisch ◽  
Fernando Jaume-Santero ◽  
Sam White ◽  
Qing Pei ◽  
Ralf Hand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Low Countries ◽  
Historical Texts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Paleoclimate Records

Abstract. Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observations and paleoclimate records, there is still a large amount of valuable information in historical archives that has not been utilized for climate reconstruction. Due to the qualitative nature of these datasets, historical texts have been compiled and studied by historians aiming to describe the climate impact in socio-economical aspects of human societies, but the inclusion of this information in past climate reconstructions remains fairly unexplored. Within this context, we present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate robust temperature and precipitation reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. After data assimilation, our reconstructions present a high seasonal temperature correlation of ∼0.8 independently of the climate model employed to estimate the background state of the atmosphere. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavour.

scholarly journals Bias correction of multi-ensemble simulations from the HAPPI model intercomparison project

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Ingo Bethke ◽  
Stefan Lange ◽  
Ludwig Lierhammer ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Correction Technique ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Extreme Indices

Abstract. Prior to using climate data as input for sectoral impact models, statistical bias correction is commonly applied to correct climate model data for systematic deviations. Different approaches have been adopted for this purpose, however the most common are those based on the transfer functions, generated to map the distribution of the simulated historical data to that of the observations. Here, we present results of a novel bias correction method, developed for Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) and applied to outputs of different GCMs generated within the HAPPI (Half A degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) project. We have employed various analysis measures including mean seasonal differences, ensemble variability, annual cycles, extreme indices as well as a global hydrological model to assess the performance of ISIMIP2b bias correction technique. The results indicate substantial improvements after the application of bias correction when compared against observational data. Moreover, the extreme indices as well as output of global hydrological model also reveal a marked improvement. At the same time, the ensemble spread of the original data is preserved after the application of bias correction. We find that the bias corrected HAPPI data can provide a reliable basis for sectoral climate impact projections.

scholarly journals Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 713-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Camenisch
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Low Countries ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Late Middle Ages ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Historical Climatology ◽  
Different Sources

Abstract. This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records deriving from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include winter and autumn temperature or precipitation at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century.

scholarly journals A novel approach to climate reconstructions using Ensemble Kalman Filtering

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 2835-2862 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bhend ◽  
J. Franke ◽  
D. Folini ◽  
M. Wild ◽  
S. Brönnimann
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Abstract Data

Abstract. Data assimilation is a promising approach to obtain climate reconstructions that are both consistent with observations of the past and with our understanding of the physics of the climate system as represented in the climate model used. Here, we investigate the use of Ensemble Square Root Filtering (EnSRF) – a technique used in weather forecasting – for climate reconstructions. We constrain an ensemble of 29 simulations from an atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) with 37 pseudo-proxy time series. Assimilating spatially sparse information with low temporal resolution (semi-annual) improves the representation of not only surface quantities such as temperature and precipitation, but also upper-air features such as the intensity of the northern stratospheric polar vortex or the strength of the northern subtropical jet. Given the sparsity of the assimilated information and the limited size of the ensemble used, a localisation procedure is crucial to reduce "overcorrection" of climate variables far away from the assimilated information.

scholarly journals Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1049-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Camenisch
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Documentary Evidence ◽  
Cold Winter ◽  
Low Countries ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
15Th Century ◽  
Late Middle Ages ◽  
Historical Climatology ◽  
Winter Temperatures

Abstract. This paper applies the methods of historical climatology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The results are based on documentary evidence that has been handled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Approximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 different sources were examined and converted into seasonal seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation information at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contribution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are striking. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wetter than average.

scholarly journals Statistical Downscaling and Projection of Future Temperature and Precipitation Change in Gandaki Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-27
Author(s):  
Dibas Shrestha ◽  
Shankar Sharma ◽  
Sandeep Bhandari ◽  
Rashila Deshar
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
National Centre ◽  
Spatial Consistency

Understanding the present and future spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and temperature is important for monitoring climate-induced disasters. Satellite and global reanalysis data can provide evenly distributed climate data; however, they are still too coarse to resolve fundamental processes over complex terrains. The study applies global climate model CGCM4/CANESM2, to project future maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation across the cross-section of the Gandaki River basin, Nepal. Large scale atmospheric variables of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR) datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) under different emission scenarios. For the variability and changes in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), three different scenarios RCP2.6, RC4.5, and RCP8.5 of CGCM4 model were performed. The study revealed that both the temperature and precipitation would increase for three RCPs (representative concentration pathways) in the future. The highest increase in precipitation was found in the arid region compared to humid and sub-humid regions by the end of 2100. Similarly, the increase in mean monthly Tmin and Tmax was more pronounced in Jomsom station than Baglung and Dumkauli stations. Overall, a decrease in summer temperature and increase in winter temperature was expected for future periods across all regions. Further, spatial consistency was observed for Tmax and Tmin, whereas spatial consistency was not found for precipitation.

scholarly journals Climate characteristics of mountain beech forests belt (Fagetum montanum illyricum Fuk. Et Stef. 1958) on Manjača

2019 ◽  
pp. 93-102
Author(s):  
Saša Eremija ◽  
Ljiljana Brašanac-Bosanac ◽  
Tatjana Ćirković-Mitrović ◽  
Snežana Stajić
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Beech Forests ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Specific Temperature ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Geographical Characteristics

This paper describes climate characteristics of mountain beech forests belt on Manjača in the southwestern part of the Republic of Srpska, based on climate data from typical meteorological stations for this region (for the period of ten years 1971-1980). Based on specific temperature and precipitation gradients, average values of the most important climate elements for the studied area are determined by extrapolating. Also, annual and monthly values of climate elements that are important for development of vegetation such as: temperature and precipitation regime, climate-geographical characteristics-thermodrome coefficient by Kerner (KP), drought index by De Martonn (Is), Furnije's coefficient for pluviometric climate aggressiveness (C) are shown. Also, climate classifications by Lang and method of hydric balance by Thornthwaitte.were used for characterization of climate. The aim is determination of climate-geographical factors and characterization of the climate characteristics in belt of mountain beech forests on Manjača, AAS well as climate impact on growth and development of forest vegetation in the study area.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

scholarly journals Correlation Analysis of Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation in a Region of Southern Italy

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ennio Ferrari ◽  
Roberto Coscarelli ◽  
Beniamino Sirangelo
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Future Extreme Climates Projection over Huang-Huai-Hai Region of China

2014 ◽  
Vol 955-959 ◽  
pp. 3887-3892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huang He Gu ◽  
Zhong Bo Yu ◽  
Ji Gan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Future

This study projects the future extreme climate changes over Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) region in China using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The RegCM4 performs well in “current” climate (1970-1999) simulations by compared with the available surface station data, focusing on near-surface air temperature and precipitation. Future climate changes are evaluated based on experiments driven by European-Hamburg general climate model (ECHAM5) in A1B future scenario (2070-2099). The results show that the annual temperature increase about 3.4 °C-4.2 °C and the annual precipitation increase about 5-15% in most of 3H region at the end of 21st century. The model predicts a generally less frost days, longer growing season, more hot days, no obvious change in heat wave duration index, larger maximum five-day rainfall, more heavy rain days, and larger daily rainfall intensity. The results indicate a higher risk of floods in the future warmer climate. In addition, the consecutive dry days in Huai River Basin will increase, indicating more serve drought and floods conditions in this region.

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