A data-mining approach to investigate El Niño damage in Peru

Author(s):  
Fabio Brill ◽  
Heidi Kreibich

<p>Compound natural hazards, like El Niño events, which trigger torrential rain, mudslides, riverine and flash floods, cause high damage to society. An improved risk management based on reliable risk assessments are urgently needed. However, knowledge about the complex processes leading to El Niño damage is lacking, and so are loss models.  We explore a large dataset of building damage from the coastal El Niño event 2017 in Peru. We use data-mining techniques to analyse data of damage grades of about 180.000 affected houses together with satellite observations and open geo-information. In a first step, we use unsupervised clustering (t-SNE + OPTICS) to separate regions of different dominant processes. Secondly, we train various supervised classification algorithms and create feature importance rankings per cluster, to identify drivers of observed damage for each of these regions. A comparison of different algorithms provides further insights about the potential and limitations of these methods and datasets. Results indicate that topographic wetness is the most important indicator, as selected by the algorithms, when using the entire dataset. Rainfall sum and maximum from TRMM satellite measurements are identified as damage driver despite the coarse spatial resolution. Also urbanity, based on a focal window around the global urban footprint, appears to play a role for the amount of damage. At least a coarse separation of processes is possible: the slope length and steepness, bare soil index, stream power index, and maximum rainfall are dominating the damage processes in lower mountain ranges and canyons, indicating rapid processes. Damage in upper mountain areas seem more influenced by the rainfall sum, local topographic position, and vegetation cover. In the lowlands, topographic wetness is very dominant, indicating ponding water or riverine floods. As opposed to previous work, this study constructs importance rankings based entirely on real observed damage to buildings. It is therefore a step towards data-driven damage assessments for El Niño events.</p>

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.38) ◽  
pp. 1146
Author(s):  
V. K. Kalichkin ◽  
A. I. Pavlova ◽  
A. F. Petrov ◽  
V. A. Smolyakov

The article proposes the methodology for the automated classification of uplands using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Neural Expert System (NES). Quantitative indicators of topography are used as the basis of the proposed classification. A database consisting of topographic, soil, and land use maps was created using ArcGIS 10 geographic information system. A topologically correct digital elevation model (DEM) was created by the ANUDEM interpolation method. The DEM contains the following maps: hypsometric, steepness and slopes exposure, plan, profile, common curvature of the ground surface, and cumulative runoff maps. The boundaries of elementary surfaces (ES), which are homogeneous morphological formations, are established. Parameters characterizing the Stream Power Index (SPI) are taken into account. The essence of the proposed classification consists in attributing of ES to a certain group of lands based on aggregate of features. To do this, partial scales were created, containing indicators of topography, soil cover, land drainage conditions, as well as the degree of erosion development. The authors formed knowledge base for traning the NES using GIS database and partial scales of estimates. Teaching of neural network was carried out. The classification and topology of land was carried out by means of the NES. The uplands are distributed in flat and slightly convex areas. They are characterized by the following indicators: the curvature of the ground surface: plan curvature (0 – 0.03), profile curvature (0 – 0.15), common curvature (0 – 0.22); slope angles (less than 1.5о); horizontal dissection in elevation (less than 0.5 km/km2), vertical dissection (less than 5 m); and SPI (from -13.80 to -6.47). Electronic map of uplands of LLC «Salair» land-use area was created in the ArcGIS 10 environment.  


Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bui ◽  
Moayedi ◽  
Kalantar ◽  
Osouli ◽  
Gör ◽  
...  

In this research, the novel metaheuristic algorithm Harris hawks optimization (HHO) is applied to landslide susceptibility analysis in Western Iran. To this end, the HHO is synthesized with an artificial neural network (ANN) to optimize its performance. A spatial database comprising 208 historical landslides, as well as 14 landslide conditioning factors—elevation, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, soil type, lithology, distance to the river, distance to the road, distance to the fault, land cover, slope degree, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), and rainfall—is prepared to develop the ANN and HHO–ANN predictive tools. Mean square error and mean absolute error criteria are defined to measure the performance error of the models, and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC) is used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated susceptibility maps. The findings showed that the HHO algorithm effectively improved the performance of ANN in both recognizing (AUROCANN = 0.731 and AUROCHHO–ANN = 0.777) and predicting (AUROCANN = 0.720 and AUROCHHO–ANN = 0.773) the landslide pattern.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kübra Tezel ◽  
Aykut Akgün ◽  
Ehsan Alizadeh

<p>Landslides occurred in the Northeastern part of Turkey are generally classified to be shallow seated landslides or earthflow type based on Varnes (1984) classification. These landslides are occasionally seen in the weathered  Eocene or Upper Crateceous aged volcanic and volcano-clastic rocks. Although there are considerable studies both directly on these landslides in point of mapping and hazard assessment, there is no any studies concerning size and magnitude characteristics of them. By considering this point, an assessment of size and magnitude characteristics of shallow seated type landslides at an area where is one of most landslide prone area of Turkey was carried out.</p><p>The investigation area is totaly covered by Eocene aged volcano-clastic lithology, and the weathering is widespread due to the climatical conditions in the area. The extend of the area is 140 square kilometers. In the area, 120 landslides were mapped by a multiple image interpretation that is from the years of 2000 to 2019. To do this, Google Earth images were used. In the area, the area (A<sub>L</sub>) of the landslide mapped differs from 53.28 m<sup>2</sup> to 902,809 m<sup>2</sup>. The length and width of these landslide were also determined and these characteristics were taken into account for an assessment of relationship between the size and topographical features such as slope gradient, curvature, topographical wetness index and stream power index. The approximate volumes of these landslides were calculated by considering direct depth observations in the field surveys, and then assessed by different relations proposed by different studies. Magnitude (M) of these landslides were also assessed by taken into account of the area (A<sub>L</sub>) and volume (V<sub>L</sub>) values.</p>


2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 264 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Ilia ◽  
D. Rozos ◽  
I. Koumantakis

The main objective of this paper is to classify landforms in Kimi municipality area of Euboea Island, Greece using advanced spatial techniques. Landform categories were determined by conducting morphometric analysis through the use of advanced GIS functions. In particular, the process of classifying the landscape into landform categories was based on Topographic Position Index (TPI). The main topographic elements such as slope inclination, aspect, slope shape (curvature), topographic wetness index and stream power index were obtained from the DEM file of the study area. Landform classification was obtained using TPI grids and the classes were related with the geological pattern and the land cover by sophisticated spatial analysis function. The knowledge obtained from the present study could be useful in identifying areas prone to land degradation and instability problems in which landforms are identified as an essential parameter


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Wu ◽  
Tanghua Li ◽  
Holger Steffen

<p>Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) induced by the melting of the Pleistocene Ice Sheets causes differential land uplift, relative sea level and geoid changes. Thus, GIA in North America may affect water flow-accumulation and the rate of sedimentation and erosion in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB), but so far this has not been well investigated.</p><p> </p><p>Our aim here is to use surface topography in the SSRB and simple models of surface water flow to compute flow-accumulation, wetness index, stream power index and sediment transport index - the latter two affect the rates of erosion and sedimentation. Since the river basin became virtually ice-free around 8 ka BP, we shall study the effects of GIA induced differential land uplift during the last 8 ka on these indexes.</p><p> </p><p>Using the present-day surface topography ETOPO1 model, we see that the stream power index and sediment transport index in the SSRB may not be high enough to alter the surface topography significantly today and probably during the last 8 ka except for places around the Rocky Mountains. The effect of using 1 and 3 arc minute grid resolution of the ETOPO1 model does not significantly alter the value of these indexes. However, we note that using 1 arc minute grid is much more computationally intensive, so only a smaller area of the SSRB can be included in the computation.</p><p> </p><p>Next, we assume that sedimentation and erosion did not occur in the SSRB during the last 8 ka BP, and the change in surface topography is only due to GIA induced differential uplift. We use land uplift predicted by a large number of GIA models to study the changes in stream power & sediment transport indexes in the last 8 ka BP. Our base GIA model is ICE6G_C(VM5a). Then we investigate the effects of using uplift predicted by other GIA models that can still fit the observed relative sea level (RSL), uplift rate and gravity-rate-of-change data in North America reasonably well. These alternate GIA models have lateral heterogeneity in the mantle and lithosphere included – in particular we test those that give the largest differential uplift in the SSRB. We found that the effect of these other GIA earth models is not large on the stream power & sediment transport indexes. Finally, we investigate the sensitivity of these indexes on the ice models that are consistent with GIA observations. The results of this study will be useful to our understanding of water flow accumulation, sedimentation and erosion in the past, present and future and for water resource management in North America.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2459
Author(s):  
Soyoung Park ◽  
Jinsoo Kim

Understanding the potential groundwater resource distribution is critical for sustainable groundwater development, conservation, and management strategies. This study analyzes and maps the groundwater potential in Busan Metropolitan City, South Korea, using random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) methods. Fourteen groundwater conditioning factors were evaluated for their contribution to groundwater potential assessment using an elastic net. Curvature, the stream power index, the distance from drainage, lineament density, and fault density were excluded from the subsequent analysis, while nine other factors were used to create groundwater potential maps (GMPs) using the RF, GBM, and XGB models. The accuracy of the resultant GPMs was tested using receiver operating characteristic curves and the seed cell area index, and the results were compared. The analysis showed that the three models used in this study satisfactorily predicted the spatial distribution of groundwater in the study area. In particular, the XGB model showed the highest prediction accuracy (0.818), followed by the GBM (0.802) and the RF models (0.794). The XGB model, which is the most recently developed technique, was found to best contribute to improving the accuracy of the GPMs. These results contribute to the establishment of a sustainable management plan for groundwater resources in the study area.


2011 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 1505-1509
Author(s):  
Qi Jun Hu ◽  
Qiang Xie ◽  
Li Ning Zheng

The large bedded slopes are the common engineering geology in mountain areas. In this paper, the influence factors, including the gradients, slope length, thickness of slide body, of the large bedded slopes were analyzed. The influence laws of the toe segment slippage length of the factors were obtained and the computing formulas of the toe segment slippage length were presented. The computing formulas were validated by the data of field survey. The results indicated that the toe segment slippage length which were determined by the slope length (L), thickness of slide body (H) and slope gradient (α) were according with the field survey and had the better safety coefficients.


2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor V Florinsky

Geomorphometry is widely used to solve various multiscale geoscientific problems. For the successful application of geomorphometric methods, a researcher should know the basic mathematical concepts of geomorphometry and be aware of the system of morphometric variables, as well as understand their physical, mathematical and geographical meanings. This paper reviews the basic mathematical concepts of general geomorphometry. First, we discuss the notion of the topographic surface and its limitations. Second, we present definitions, formulae and meanings for four main groups of morphometric variables, such as local, non-local, two-field specific and combined topographic attributes, and we review the following 29 fundamental morphometric variables: slope, aspect, northwardness, eastwardness, plan curvature, horizontal curvature, vertical curvature, difference curvature, horizontal excess curvature, vertical excess curvature, accumulation curvature, ring curvature, minimal curvature, maximal curvature, mean curvature, Gaussian curvature, unsphericity curvature, rotor, Laplacian, shape index, curvedness, horizontal curvature deflection, vertical curvature deflection, catchment area, dispersive area, reflectance, insolation, topographic index and stream power index. For illustrations, we use a digital elevation model (DEM) of Mount Ararat, extracted from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 1-arc-second DEM. The DEM was treated by a spectral analytical method. Finally, we briefly discuss the main paradox of general geomorphometry associated with the smoothness of the topographic surface and the non-smoothness of the real topography; application of morphometric variables; statistical aspects of geomorphometric modelling, including relationships between morphometric variables and roughness indices; and some pending problems of general geomorphometry (i.e. analysis of inner surfaces of caves, analytical description of non-local attributes and structural lines, as well as modelling on a triaxial ellipsoid). The paper can be used as a reference guide on general geomorphometry.


2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeiner Yobany Buitrago E. ◽  
Luis Joel Martínez M.

The objective of this research was to develop a model for assessing the risk of erosion, exploring the potential of DEMs from SRTM, ASTER, ALOS PALSAR and one made with interpolation of a 1:25,000 contour map to calculate the variables of the relief that have greater impact on erosion. Several geomorphometric parameters, such as slope, aspect, profile and plan curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, and sediment transport capacity were computed from the DEM's elevation, some fuzzy logic functions proposed to evaluate the incidence of each parameter on erosion risk in a mountainous area of Colombia. The results showed that the use of DEM data is a relatively easy, uncostly method to identify, in a qualitative way, the risk of erosion and contribute to the enhancement of erosion information that is obtained with conventional general soil surveys.


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