Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indices. Which method explains loss best?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Roesch ◽  
Maria Papathoma-Köhle ◽  
Sven Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Mountain Rivers ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Impact Forces ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Damage Data

<p>Mountain rivers are characterized by dynamic flooding with variable amounts of sediment erosion, deposition and remobilisation (Sturm et al., 2018); typical hazard processes include fluvial sediment transport, debris flows and related phenomena. In Europe, such processes repeatedly result in considerable damage to infrastructure and buildings on a local and regional level.</p><p>The physical vulnerability of buildings to dynamic flooding has been approached mainly with two methods until now: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indices. Each approach has its drawbacks and advantages (Papathoma-Köhle, 2016; Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2019). In the present study, damage data from a relatively recent event in the European Alps are used for the application of both methods. The event occurred in the municipality of See situated in the Paznaun valley in Tirol, Austria, in 2015. A new vulnerability curve is developed based on data from 21 buildings. An existing vulnerability index is also applied in the area. The results of both methods are compared with each other and with the actual loss of the event. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis regarding two input parameters (intensity and degree of loss) is performed for both the vulnerability curve and the vulnerability index. The results are mirrored against a recently developed vulnerability model for dynamic flooding in mountain areas (Fuchs et al., 2019), and possible model improvements are discussed.</p><p> </p><p>References</p><p>Fuchs, S., Heiser, M., Schlögl, M., Zischg, A., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Keiler, M.: Short communication: A model to predict flood loss in mountain areas, Environmental Modelling and Software, 117, 176-180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.026, 2019.</p><p>Papathoma-Köhle, M.: Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1771-1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1771-2016, 2016.</p><p>Papathoma-Köhle, M., Schlögl, M., and Fuchs, S.: Vulnerability indicators for natural hazards: an innovative selection and weighting approach, Scientific Reports, 9, Article 15026, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50257-2, 2019.</p><p>Sturm, M., Gems, B., Keller, F., Mazzorana, B., Fuchs, S., Papathoma-Köhle, M., and Aufleger, M.: Experimental analyses of impact forces on buildings exposed to fluvial hazards, Journal of Hydrology, 565, 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.070, 2018.</p>

scholarly journals Vulnerability indicators for natural hazards: an innovative selection and weighting approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Papathoma-Köhle ◽  
Matthias Schlögl ◽  
Sven Fuchs
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Vulnerability Assessment ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators

Abstract To prepare for upcoming extreme events, decision makers, scientists and other stakeholders require a thorough understanding of the vulnerability of the built environment to natural hazards. A vulnerability index based on building characteristics (indicators) rather than empirical data may be an alternative approach to a comprehensive physical vulnerability assessment of the building stock. The present paper focuses on the making of such an index for dynamic flooding in mountain areas demonstrating the transferability of vulnerability assessment approaches between hazard types, reducing the amount of required data and offering a tool that can be used in areas were empirical data are not available. We use data from systematically documented torrential events in the European Alps to select and weight the important indicators using an all-relevant feature selection algorithm based on random forests. The permutation-based feature selection reduced the initial number of indicators from 22 to seven, decreasing in this way the amount of required data for assessing physical vulnerability and ensuring that only relevant indicators are considered. The new Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) may be used in the mountain areas of Europe and beyond where only few empirical data are available supporting decision-making in reducing risk to dynamic flooding.

Validation of methods for the assessment of physical vulnerability to dynamic flooding

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Papathoma-Koehle ◽  
Lea Dosser ◽  
Florian Roesch ◽  
Matthias Schlögl ◽  
Marco Borga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Damage Data ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Physical Vulnerability Index

<p>The importance of assessing the physical vulnerability of assets to natural hazards is indisputable. Recent extreme events have shown that the severity of natural hazards is strongly linked to the vulnerability of the population and the built environment. Physical vulnerability, in particular, is directly connected to monetary damages and interruptions that are in the centre of the interests of several stakeholders including governments, authorities, insurance companies, engineers, and homeowners. A plethora of different approaches is available in the literature, nevertheless, two categories of approaches are the most prominent: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. In this study, both are put to the test by using data from two relatively recent dynamic flood events. In more detail, a physical vulnerability index (PVI) and a Beta model based on damage data from Italy and Austria are validated using recent damage data from an event in Dimaro Folgarida (Trento, Italy) in 2018 and an event in Schallerbach (Tirol, Austria) in 2015. The study does not just validate the methods but also investigates remaining uncertainties related to the assessment of the process intensity on buildings and the calculation of the building value by conducting a sensitivity analysis. </p>

scholarly journals Analysis and validation of the PTVA tsunami building vulnerability model using the 2015 Chile post-tsunami damage data in Coquimbo and La Serena cities

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1703-1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Izquierdo ◽  
Eduardo Fritis ◽  
Manuel Abad
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Similar Distribution ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Vulnerability Model ◽  
Damage Data ◽  
Land Use Policies ◽  
Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment

Abstract. Chile is highly exposed to tsunami hazard from large earthquakes often occurring along the Peru–Chile trench, like the 16 September 2015 event. However, only recently has tsunami hazard been considered in the land-use policies of the Chilean coast. These new regulations must enforce the identification of the most vulnerable sectors of the Chilean coastal cities. This paper analyses and validates the two latest versions of the Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) model in the 2015 tsunami reconstructed scenario in the cities of La Serena and Coquimbo. Both models result in a similar number of very high and high relative vulnerability index (RVI) scores. However, the less vulnerable categories do not show a similar trend and the PTVA-4 model obtains a larger number of minor and average RVI scores. When compared to the damages caused by the tsunami, the PTVA-3 shows a more similar distribution to the actual damages than that obtained by the PTVA-4 model, which shows a more concentrated distribution of the RVI scores. These results suggest this version of the model should be used in Chilean coastal cities in future land-use or mitigation planning.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hydroclimate Extremes in Appalachia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leah R. Handwerger ◽  
Jennifer R. Runkle ◽  
Ronald Leeper ◽  
Elizabeth Shay ◽  
Kara Dempsey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Social Vulnerability Index ◽  
Physical Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators

Abstract Appalachia is a cultural region in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains that lags behind the nation in several social vulnerability indicators. Climate projections over this region indicate that precipitation variability will increase in both severity and frequency in future decades, suggesting that the occurrence of natural hazards related to hydroclimate extremes will also increase. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of drought and precipitation and determine how trends overlap with vulnerable communities across Appalachia. The study utilized trend analysis through Mann-Kendall calculations and a Social Vulnerability Index, resulting in a bivariate map that displays areas most susceptible to adverse effects from hydroclimate extremes. Results show the southwestern portion of the region as most vulnerable to increased precipitation, and the central-southeast most vulnerable to an increase in drought-precipitation variability. This study is among the first to utilize the boundaries defined by the Appalachian Regional Commission from a climatological perspective, allowing findings to reach audiences outside the scientific community and bring more effective mitigation strategies that span from the local to federal levels.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO THE IMPACT OF FLOOD HAZARD: A CASE STUDY OF KOPILI RIVER BASIN, ASSAM, INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 455-460
Author(s):  
S. V. Shiva Prasad Sharma ◽  
P. S. Roy ◽  
V. Chakravarthi
Keyword(s):  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Social Vulnerability Index ◽  
The Social ◽  
Vulnerability Indicators ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerable Zones

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In the present study, an attempt is made to understand the impact on Social Vulnerability of the Kopili basin due to various severities of flood hazard. The flood hazard is generated using multi-temporal historical satellite based analysis and integration of annual flood inundation layers. The census of India data of 2001 and 2011 is spatially joined with village database to study the impact at village level. Using 5 Census variables from both Census 2001 &amp;amp; 2011 as vulnerability indicators, the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) is derived and classified into various vulnerable zones namely Low, Moderate and High Vulnerable zones. The findings of the study show that the number of villages falling in Low and High Vulnerable zones had decreased during Census 2011 when compared to 2001 and a rise of 6% in villages falling in moderate vulnerable zones during 2011 is observed. The spatial database generated is useful to understand the impact of floods on the Social Vulnerability status of the basin and can be a useful input to further study the Physical, Economic and Environmental Vulnerabilities of the basin.</p>

scholarly journals The hydrological significance of mountains: from regional to global scale

2004 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1017-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Viviroli ◽  
R. Weingartner
Keyword(s):  
Fresh Water ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Arid Zones ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Rhine River ◽  
Runoff Water ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Total Discharge

Abstract. Mountain regions supply a large share of the world’s population with fresh water. Quantification of the hydrological significance of mountains, however, is subject to great uncertainty. Instead of focusing on global averages in advance, the present analysis follows a catchment-based approach using discharge data provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The River Rhine originating in the European Alps is chosen as a first study area, revealing the hydrological relationship between mountainous and lowland regions in a well-documented area. Following the findings from this analysis, different aspects of runoff characteristics for a total of 22 case-study river basins world-wide have been investigated and compared, for a global view. The view has been extended through aspects of climate and human use of mountain runoff. The particular hydrological characteristics of mountain areas are characterised by disproportionately large discharges. In humid areas, mountains supply up to 20–50% of total discharge while in arid areas, mountains contribute from 50–90% of total discharge, with extremes of over 95%. The overall assessment of the hydrological significance of mountain areas reveals that the world’s major "water towers" are found in arid or semi-arid zones where they provide essential fresh water for a significant proportion of a quickly growing global population. Keywords: mountain hydrology, global comparative assessment, runoff, water resources, sustainability, Rhine River, European Alps

Using historical aerial imagery to assess multidecadal kinematics and elevation changes. Application to mountain permafrost in the French Alps.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Cusicanqui ◽  
Antoine Rabatel ◽  
Xavier Bodin ◽  
Christian Vincent ◽  
Emmanuel Thibert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Core ◽  
Horizontal Displacement ◽  
Vertical Surface ◽  
Aerial Images ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Mountain Permafrost

&lt;p&gt;Glacial and periglacial environments are highly sensitive to climate change, even more in mountain areas where warming is faster and, as a consequence, perennial features of the cryosphere like glaciers and permafrost have been fast evolving in the last decades. In the European Alps, glaciers retreat and permafrost thawing have led to the destabilization of mountain slopes, threatening human infrastructures and inhabitants. The observation of such changes at decadal scales is often limited to sparse in situ observations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we present three study cases of mountain permafrost sites based on a multidisciplinary approach over almost seven decades. The goal is to investigate and quantify morphodynamic changes and understand the causes of these evolutions. We used stereo-photogrammetry techniques to generate orthophotos and (DEMs) from historical aerial images (available, in France since 1940s). From this, we produced diachronic comparison of DEMs to quantify vertical surface changes, as well as feature tracking techniques of multi-temporal digital orthophotos for estimating horizontal displacement rates. Locally, high-resolution datasets (i.e. LiDAR surveys, UAV acquisitions and Pl&amp;#233;iades stereo imagery) were also exploited to improve the quality of photogrammetric products. In addition, we combine these results with geophysics (ERT and GPR) to estimate the ice content, geomorphological surveys to describe the complex environments and the relationship with climatic forcing.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The first study case is the Laurichard rock glacier, where we were able to quantify changes of emergence velocities, fluxes, and volume. Together with an acceleration of surface velocity, important surface lowering have been found over the period 1952-2019, with a striking spatiotemporal reversal of volume balance.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The second study site is the Tignes glacial and periglacial complex, where the changes of thermokarstic lakes surface were quantified. The results suggest that drainage probably affects the presence and the evolution of the largest thermorkarst. Here too, a significant ice loss was found on the central channel concomitant to an increase in surface velocities.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The third study site is the Chauvet glacial and periglacial complex where several historical outburst floods are recorded during the 20th century, likely related to the permafrost degradation, the presence of thermokarstic lakes, and an intra-glacial channel. The lateral convergence of ice flow, due to the terrain subsidence caused by the intense melting, may cause the closure of the channel with a subsequent refill of the thermokarstic depression and finally a new catastrophic event.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Our results highlight the important value of historical aerial photography for having a longer perspective on the evolution of the high mountain cryosphere, thanks to accurate quantification of pluri-annual changes of volume and surface velocity. For instance, we could evidence : (1) a speed-up of the horizontal displacements since the 1990s in comparison with the previous decades; (2) an important surface lowering related to various melting processes (ice-core, thermokarst) for the three study sites; (3) relationships between the observed evolution and the contemporaneous climate warming, with a long-term evolution controlled by the warming of the ground and short-term changes that may relate to snow or precipitation or to the activity of the glacial-periglacial landforms.&lt;/p&gt;

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