The impact of NAWDEX dropsonde and extra radiosonde observations on forecast quality and tropopause structure

Author(s):  
Matthias Schindler ◽  
Martin Weissmann ◽  
Andreas Schäfler ◽  
Gabor Radnoti

<p>Utilizing a multitude of in situ and remote sensing instruments, a comprehensive dataset was collected during the transatlantic field campaign NAWDEX in autumn 2016. Cycled data denial experiments with the global model of the ECMWF showed that additionally collected dropsonde and radiosonde observations contributed to a reduction in the short-range forecast error, with the most prominent error reductions being linked to Tropical Storm Karl, cyclones Matthew and Nicole and their subsequent interaction with the midlatitude waveguide. While the short-range forecast quality was improved, Schäfler et al. (2019, in review) demonstrated that ECMWF IFS analyses exhibit deficiencies in capturing observed wind speeds at and above the dynamical tropopause during NAWDEX. Therefore, data assimilation output from the ECMWF IFS is used to evaluate the observational influence on the tropopause. Statistics of data assimilation diagnostics such as the analysis increment and first guess departure will be assessed in observation space in a tropopause relative framework to quantify the impact of assimilated radiosonde observations on tropopause location and sharpness.</p>

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1145-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Turpin ◽  
E. Remy ◽  
P. Y. Le Traon

Abstract. Observing System Experiments (OSEs) are carried out over a one-year period to quantify the impact of Argo observations on the Mercator-Ocean 1/4° global ocean analysis and forecasting system. The reference simulation assimilates sea surface temperature (SST), SSALTO/DUACS altimeter data and Argo and other in situ observations from the Coriolis data center. Two other simulations are carried out where all Argo and half of Argo data sets are withheld. Assimilating Argo observations has a significant impact on analyzed and forecast temperature and salinity fields at different depths. Without Argo data assimilation, large errors occur in analyzed fields as estimated from the differences when compared with in situ observations. For example, in the 0–300 m layer RMS differences between analyzed fields and observations reach 0.25 psu and 1.25 °C in the western boundary currents and 0.1 psu and 0.75 °C in the open ocean. The impact of the Argo data in reducing observation-model forecast error is also significant from the surface down to a depth of 2000 m. Differences between independent observations and forecast fields are thus reduced by 20 % in the upper layers and by up to 40 % at a depth of 2000 m when Argo data are assimilated. At depth, the most impacted regions in the global ocean are the Mediterranean outflow and the Labrador Sea. A significant degradation can be observed when only half of the data are assimilated. All Argo observations thus matter, even with a 1/4° model resolution. The main conclusion is that the performance of global data assimilation systems is heavily dependent on the availability of Argo data.


2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 447-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Buehner ◽  
Ping Du ◽  
Joël Bédard

Abstract Two types of approaches are commonly used for estimating the impact of arbitrary subsets of observations on short-range forecast error. The first was developed for variational data assimilation systems and requires the adjoint of the forecast model. Comparable approaches were developed for use with the ensemble Kalman filter and rely on ensembles of forecasts. In this study, a new approach for computing observation impact is proposed for ensemble–variational data assimilation (EnVar). Like standard adjoint approaches, the adjoint of the data assimilation procedure is implemented through the iterative minimization of a modified cost function. However, like ensemble approaches, the adjoint of the forecast step is obtained by using an ensemble of forecasts. Numerical experiments were performed to compare the new approach with the standard adjoint approach in the context of operational deterministic NWP. Generally similar results are obtained with both approaches, especially when the new approach uses covariance localization that is horizontally advected between analysis and forecast times. However, large differences in estimated impacts are obtained for some surface observations. Vertical propagation of the observation impact is noticeably restricted with the new approach because of vertical covariance localization. The new approach is used to evaluate changes in observation impact as a result of the use of interchannel observation error correlations for radiance observations. The estimated observation impact in similarly configured global and regional prediction systems is also compared. Overall, the new approach should provide useful estimates of observation impact for data assimilation systems based on EnVar when an adjoint model is not available.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilaria Clemenzi ◽  
David Gustafsson ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Björn Norell ◽  
Wolf Marchand ◽  
...  

<p>Snow in the mountains is the result of the interplay between meteorological conditions, e.g., precipitation, wind and solar radiation, and landscape features, e.g., vegetation and topography. For this reason, it is highly variable in time and space. It represents an important water storage for several sectors of the society including tourism, ecology and hydropower. The estimation of the amount of snow stored in winter and available in the form of snowmelt runoff can be strategic for their sustainability. In the hydropower sector, for example, the occurrence of higher snow and snowmelt runoff volumes at the end of the spring and in the early summer compared to the estimated one can substantially impact reservoir regulation with energy and economical losses. An accurate estimation of the snow volumes and their spatial and temporal distribution is thus essential for spring flood runoff prediction. Despite the increasing effort in the development of new acquisition techniques, the availability of extensive and representative snow and density measurements for snow water equivalent estimations is still limited. Hydrological models in combination with data assimilation of ground or remote sensing observations is a way to overcome these limitations. However, the impact of using different types of snow observations on snowmelt runoff predictions is, little understood. In this study we investigated the potential of assimilating in situ and remote sensing snow observations to improve snow water equivalent estimates and snowmelt runoff predictions. We modelled the seasonal snow water equivalent distribution in the Lake Överuman catchment, Northern Sweden, which is used for hydropower production. Simulations were performed using the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE for the snow seasons 2017-2020. For this purpose, a snowfall distribution model based on wind-shelter factors was included to represent snow spatial distribution within model units. The units consist of 2.5x2.5 km<sup>2</sup> grid cells, which were further divided into hydrological response units based on elevation, vegetation and aspect. The impact on the estimation of the total catchment mean snow water equivalent and snowmelt runoff volume were evaluated using for data assimilation, gpr-based snow water equivalent data acquired along survey lines in the catchment in the early spring of the four years, snow water equivalent data obtained by a machine learning algorithm and satellite-based fractional snow cover data. Results show that the wind-shelter based snow distribution model was able to represent a similar spatial distribution as the gpr survey lines, when assessed on the catchment level. Deviations in the model performance within and between specific gpr survey lines indicate issues with the spatial distribution of input precipitation, and/or need to include explicit representation of snow drift between model units. The explicit snow distribution model also improved runoff simulations, and the ability of the model to improve forecast through data assimilation.</p>


Author(s):  
Nemesio Rodriguez-Fernandez ◽  
Patricia de Rosnay ◽  
Clement Albergel ◽  
Philippe Richaume ◽  
Filipe Aires ◽  
...  

The assimilation of Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) data into the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) H-TESSEL (Hydrology revised - Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) model is presented. SMOS soil moisture (SM) estimates have been produced specifically by training a neural network with SMOS brightness temperatures as input and H-TESSEL model SM simulations as reference. This can help the assimilation of SMOS information in several ways: (1) the neural network soil moisture (NNSM) data have a similar climatology to the model, (2) no global bias is present with respect to the model even if regional differences can exist. Experiments performing joint data assimilation (DA) of NNSM, 2 metre air temperature and relative humidity or NNSM-only DA are discussed. The resulting SM was evaluated against a large number of in situ measurements of SM obtaining similar results to those of the model with no assimilation, even if significant differences were found from site to site. In addition, atmospheric forecasts initialized with H-TESSEL runs (without DA) or with the analysed SM were compared to measure of the impact of the satellite information. Although, NNSM DA has an overall neutral impact in the forecast in the Tropics, a significant positive impact was found in other areas and periods, especially in regions with limited in situ information. The joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast for all the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere. The impact is mostly due to T2m and RH2m, but SMOS NN DA alone also improves the forecast in July- September. In the Northern Hemisphere, the joint NNSM, T2m and RH2m DA improves the forecast in April-September, while NNSM alone has a significant positive effect in July-September. Furthermore, forecasting skill maps show that SMOS NNSM improves the forecast in North America and in Northern Asia for up to 72 hours lead time.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 1744 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Maciel ◽  
Evlyn Novo ◽  
Lino Sander de Carvalho ◽  
Cláudio Barbosa ◽  
Rogério Flores Júnior ◽  
...  

Remote sensing imagery are fundamental to increasing the knowledge about sediment dynamics in the middle-lower Amazon floodplains. Moreover, they can help to understand both how climate change and how land use and land cover changes impact the sediment exchange between the Amazon River and floodplain lakes in this important and complex ecosystem. This study investigates the suitability of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 spectral characteristics in retrieving total (TSS) and inorganic (TSI) suspended sediments on a set of Amazon floodplain lakes in the middle-lower Amazon basin using in situ Remote Sensing Reflectance (Rrs) measurements to simulate Landsat 8/OLI (Operational Land Imager) and Sentinel 2/MSI (Multispectral Instrument) bands and to calibrate/validate several TSS and TSI empirical algorithms. The calibration was based on the Monte Carlo Simulation carried out for the following datasets: (1) All-Dataset, consisting of all the data acquired during four field campaigns at five lakes spread over the lower Amazon floodplain (n = 94); (2) Campaign-Dataset including samples acquired in a specific hydrograph phase (season) in all lakes. As sample size varied from one season to the other, n varied from 18 to 31; (3) Lake-Dataset including samples acquired in all seasons at a given lake with n also varying from 17 to 67 for each lake. The calibrated models were, then, applied to OLI and MSI scenes acquired in August 2017. The performance of three atmospheric correction algorithms was also assessed for both OLI (6S, ACOLITE, and L8SR) and MSI (6S, ACOLITE, and Sen2Cor) images. The impact of glint correction on atmosphere-corrected image performance was assessed against in situ glint-corrected Rrs measurements. After glint correction, the L8SR and 6S atmospheric correction performed better with the OLI and MSI sensors, respectively (Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 16.68% and 14.38%) considering the entire set of bands. However, for a given single band, different methods have different performances. The validated TSI and TSS satellite estimates showed that both in situ TSI and TSS algorithms provided reliable estimates, having the best results for the green OLI band (561 nm) and MSI red-edge band (705 nm) (MAPE < 21%). Moreover, the findings indicate that the OLI and MSI models provided similar errors, which support the use of both sensors as a virtual constellation for the TSS and TSI estimate over an Amazon floodplain. These results demonstrate the applicability of the calibration/validation techniques developed for the empirical modeling of suspended sediments in lower Amazon floodplain lakes using medium-resolution sensors.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1267-1284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theo Baracchini ◽  
Philip Y. Chu ◽  
Jonas Šukys ◽  
Gian Lieberherr ◽  
Stefan Wunderle ◽  
...  

Abstract. The understanding of physical dynamics is crucial to provide scientifically credible information on lake ecosystem management. We show how the combination of in situ observations, remote sensing data, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic (3D) numerical simulations is capable of resolving various spatiotemporal scales involved in lake dynamics. This combination is achieved through data assimilation (DA) and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we develop a flexible framework by incorporating DA into 3D hydrodynamic lake models. Using an ensemble Kalman filter, our approach accounts for model and observational uncertainties. We demonstrate the framework by assimilating in situ and satellite remote sensing temperature data into a 3D hydrodynamic model of Lake Geneva. Results show that DA effectively improves model performance over a broad range of spatiotemporal scales and physical processes. Overall, temperature errors have been reduced by 54 %. With a localization scheme, an ensemble size of 20 members is found to be sufficient to derive covariance matrices leading to satisfactory results. The entire framework has been developed with the goal of near-real-time operational systems (e.g., integration into meteolakes.ch).


2019 ◽  
Vol 146 (726) ◽  
pp. 401-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert R. King ◽  
Daniel J. Lea ◽  
Matthew J. Martin ◽  
Isabelle Mirouze ◽  
Julian Heming

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 4831-4844 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Draper ◽  
R. Reichle

Abstract. A 9 year record of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into the Catchment land surface model at four locations in the US. The assimilation is evaluated using the unbiased mean square error (ubMSE) relative to watershed-scale in situ observations, with the ubMSE separated into contributions from the subseasonal (SMshort), mean seasonal (SMseas), and inter-annual (SMlong) soil moisture dynamics. For near-surface soil moisture, the average ubMSE for Catchment without assimilation was (1.8 × 10−3 m3 m−3)2, of which 19 % was in SMlong, 26 % in SMseas, and 55 % in SMshort. The AMSR-E assimilation significantly reduced the total ubMSE at every site, with an average reduction of 33 %. Of this ubMSE reduction, 37 % occurred in SMlong, 24 % in SMseas, and 38 % in SMshort. For root-zone soil moisture, in situ observations were available at one site only, and the near-surface and root-zone results were very similar at this site. These results suggest that, in addition to the well-reported improvements in SMshort, assimilating a sufficiently long soil moisture data record can also improve the model representation of important long-term events, such as droughts. The improved agreement between the modeled and in situ SMseas is harder to interpret, given that mean seasonal cycle errors are systematic, and systematic errors are not typically targeted by (bias-blind) data assimilation. Finally, the use of 1-year subsets of the AMSR-E and Catchment soil moisture for estimating the observation-bias correction (rescaling) parameters is investigated. It is concluded that when only 1 year of data are available, the associated uncertainty in the rescaling parameters should not greatly reduce the average benefit gained from data assimilation, although locally and in extreme years there is a risk of increased errors.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 5693-5708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Etchanchu ◽  
Vincent Rivalland ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Jérôme Cros ◽  
Tiphaine Tallec ◽  
...  

Abstract. Agricultural landscapes are often constituted by a patchwork of crop fields whose seasonal evolution is dependent on specific crop rotation patterns and phenologies. This temporal and spatial heterogeneity affects surface hydrometeorological processes and must be taken into account in simulations of land surface and distributed hydrological models. The Sentinel-2 mission allows for the monitoring of land cover and vegetation dynamics at unprecedented spatial resolutions and revisit frequencies (20 m and 5 days, respectively) that are fully compatible with such heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. Here, we evaluate the impact of Sentinel-2-like remote sensing data on the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes via the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model included in the EXternalized SURface (SURFEX) modeling platform. The study focuses on the effect of the leaf area index (LAI) spatial and temporal variability on these fluxes. We compare the use of the LAI climatology from ECOCLIMAP-II, used by default in SURFEX-ISBA, and time series of LAI derived from the high-resolution Formosat-2 satellite data (8 m). The study area is an agricultural zone in southwestern France covering 576 km2 (24 km  ×  24 km). An innovative plot-scale approach is used, in which each computational unit has a homogeneous vegetation type. Evaluation of the simulations quality is done by comparing model outputs with in situ eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux (LE). Our results show that the use of LAI derived from high-resolution remote sensing significantly improves simulated evapotranspiration with respect to ECOCLIMAP-II, especially when the surface is covered with summer crops. The comparison with in situ measurements shows an improvement of roughly 0.3 in the correlation coefficient and a decrease of around 30 % of the root mean square error (RMSE) in the simulated evapotranspiration. This finding is attributable to a better description of LAI evolution processes with Formosat-2 data, which further modify soil water content and drainage of soil reservoirs. Effects on annual drainage patterns remain small but significant, i.e., an increase roughly equivalent to 4 % of annual precipitation levels with simulations using Formosat-2 data in comparison to the reference simulation values. This study illustrates the potential for the Sentinel-2 mission to better represent effects of crop management on water budgeting for large, anthropized river basins.


2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 2139-2153 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Crumeyrolle ◽  
G. Chen ◽  
L. Ziemba ◽  
A. Beyersdorf ◽  
L. Thornhill ◽  
...  

Abstract. During the NASA DISCOVER-AQ campaign over the US Baltimore, MD–Washington, D.C., metropolitan area in July 2011, the NASA P-3B aircraft performed extensive profiling of aerosol optical, chemical, and microphysical properties. These in situ profiles were coincident with ground-based remote sensing (AERONET) and in situ (PM2.5) measurements. Here, we use this data set to study the correlation between the PM2.5 observations at the surface and the column integrated measurements. Aerosol optical depth (AOD550 nm) calculated with the extinction (550 nm) measured during the in situ profiles was found to be strongly correlated with the volume of aerosols present in the boundary layer (BL). Despite the strong correlation, some variability remains, and we find that the presence of aerosol layers above the BL (in the buffer layer – BuL) introduces significant uncertainties in PM2.5 estimates based on column-integrated measurements (overestimation of PM2.5 by a factor of 5). This suggests that the use of active remote sensing techniques would dramatically improve air quality retrievals. Indeed, the relationship between the AOD550 nm and the PM2.5 is strongly improved by accounting for the aerosol present in and above the BL (i.e., integrating the aerosol loading from the surface to the top of the BuL). Since more than 15% of the AOD values observed during DISCOVER-AQ are dominated by aerosol water uptake, the f(RH)amb (ratio of scattering coefficient at ambient relative humidity (RH) to scattering coefficient at low RH; see Sect. 3.2) is used to study the impact of the aerosol hygroscopicity on the PM2.5 retrievals. The results indicate that PM2.5 can be predicted within a factor up to 2 even when the vertical variability of the f(RH)amb is assumed to be negligible. Moreover, f(RH = 80%) and RH measurements performed at the ground may be used to estimate the f(RH)amb during dry conditions (RHBL < 55%).


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document