Effectiveness Analysis of Multi-purpose Dam: Socio-hydrology Modeling Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sleemin Lee ◽  
Doosun Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Interdisciplinary Studies ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Dynamics Modeling

<p>Water resources are essential for human life and closely related to various social and economic factors (e.g. land use, population, economic development, environment, etc). Also, such human activities affect hydrological environment conversely. Thus, socio-hydrology interdisciplinary studies that consider both hydro-engineering and socio-economic behavior are needed. Multi-purpose dam is a large water infrastructure mitigating water-related disasters by flood control and stable water supply. However, the effectiveness of multi-purpose dam besides the disaster mitigation has not been well analyzed, such as the social and economic influence to downstream area. This study aims to understand the relationship between the socio- and hydrology-sectors and quantitatively analyze the effects of the multi-purpose dam in target area. The representative components of socio-sector are population, land use, GRDP (gross regional domestic product), and flood/drought damages, and the hydrology-sector includes dam inflow/outflow, precipitation, and water demand. A causal loop was developed to identify the causal relationship between the socio- and hydrology-components, and a socio-hydrology system model was constructed using a system-dynamics technique. Various climate and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on the population, regional economy, water supply, and flood damage prevention of the target area. The constructed socio-hydrology model can be used in decision-making for efficient water management and water facility planning.</p><p> </p><p>Keywords: Climate change, Multi-purpose dam, Socio-hydrology, System-dynamics modeling</p><p>                                                                 </p><p>Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as “Graduate School specialized in Climate Change”.</p>

scholarly journals Water demand predictions for megacities: system dynamics modeling and implications

Water Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huanhuan Qin ◽  
Ximing Cai ◽  
Chunmiao Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Water Transfers ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Basin Water

Abstract Sustaining the water supply in megacities is an enormous challenge. To address this challenge, it is especially important to predict water demand changes in megacities. This paper presents a system dynamics model to predict the future water demands of different sectors considering multiple factors, including population, structure of the economy, and water supply and use technologies. Compared with traditional methods such as the time series method and structure analysis method, the proposed model takes into account the interconnections, non-linear relationships and feedbacks between the various factors in a systems context. The model is applied to Beijing, a megacity with a population over 20 million and very limited water availability. It is found that the total water demand is likely to increase by at least 36.1% (up to 62.5%) by 2030 compared with that in 2011, and the water deficits vary from −0.36 × 109 to 1.80 × 109m3 in 2030. In addition, scenarios are designed to account for impacts associated with economic development, climate change and inter-basin water transfers. It is shown that climate change may have a large impact on the water supply reliability in Beijing. The water shortage problems can be alleviated via inter-basin water transfers.

scholarly journals Inter-annual change of the drought limit water level of a reservoir based on system dynamics

Water Policy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fawen Li ◽  
Dong Yu ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Runxiang Cao
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Structural Diagram ◽  
Yuqiao Reservoir ◽  
Engineering Measure ◽  
Drought Early Warning ◽  
Limit Water Level

Abstract Drought is one of the major natural disasters affecting the development of economies and society. Drought early warning is the primary step and most important non-engineering measure for drought relief. This paper took Yuqiao Reservoir in Tianjin as a case study and analysed inter-annual changes of the drought limit water level. First, the causality between variables in the water supply–demand system was analysed, and a structural diagram of water sources allocation was drawn. Coupled with the parameters and a structural diagram, a system dynamics (SD) model of the water supply volume was established. Secondly, simulation results were tested to ensure that the model was valid. The water supply volume from 2003 to 2020 was simulated by using the model. Finally, based on the inflow process and the water supply volume, the drought limit water level was calculated. The results showed the water supply volume of Yuqiao Reservoir has changed remarkably. The drought limit water levels in 2003–2012 and in 2016–2020 were 16.70 m and 16.30 m, respectively: a difference of 0.40 m. The regulation curve of guarantee for water supply during 2016–2020 is significantly lower than that of 2003–2012. This research is of great significance for drought resistance, disaster mitigation and reservoir management.

scholarly journals ECOSYSTEM SERVICE ASSESSMENT IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED BY USING TOPMODEL

AGROFOR ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kosuke MUKAE ◽  
Koji MIWA ◽  
Hiromu OKAZAWA ◽  
Tomonori FUJIKAWA
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Agricultural Watershed ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ◽  
Different Types

In Millennium Ecosystem Assessment established by the United Nations, theecosystem services (ES) provide benefits for human life as well as theenvironment. There is “regulating services” among all the supporting services. As aregulatory service, forests alleviate the flood risk after heavy rain by storingrainfall temporarily into forestlands and prevent the sudden increase in riverdischarge. The purpose of this research is to develop a hydrological modelling toassess this service in a watershed where consists of not only forestland but alsograssland. TOPMODEL is applied for the quantification. This model was inventedto forecast river discharge in watersheds where the land use is uniform. However,the model has not been applied to a watershed where agricultural and forest areaare mixed in Japan. This research aimed to develop TOPMODEL to apply to suchcomplexed land use. Because the targeted watershed is consisted of two land-usetypes, TOPMODEL was applied in each grassland and forestland. It predicted theriver discharge by combining the predicted discharge from the different types ofland calculated by TOPMODEL. The result confirmed that by developing themodel, it was able to assess the water discharge from the both grassland andforestland in a watershed. The developed model also showed the betterreproducibility of river-discharge prediction than the conventional TOPMODEL.In addition, it clarified that the forestland stores more water than grassland into theground. Therefore, the effect of flood control which is the regulatory service of ESwas assessable through the developed model.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effectiveness of a Multi-Purpose Dam Using a System Dynamics Model

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1062 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sleemin Lee ◽  
Doosun Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Management ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Target Area ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Social

The increasing frequency of extreme droughts and flash floods in recent years due to climate change has increased the interest in sustainable water use and efficient water resource management. Because the water resource sector is closely related to human activities and affected by interactions between the humanities and social sciences, there is a need for interdisciplinary research that can consider various elements, such as society and the economy. This study elucidates relationships within the social and hydrological systems and quantitatively analyzes the effects of a multi-purpose dam on the target society using a system dynamics model. A causal loop was used to identify causal relationships between the social and hydrological components of the target area, and a simulation model was constructed using the system dynamics technique. Additionally, climate change and socio-economic scenarios were applied to analyze the future effects of the multi-purpose dam on population change, the regional economy, water use, and flood damage prevention in the target area. The model proved reliable in predicting socio-economic changes in the target area and can be used to make decisions about efficient water resource management and water-resource-related facility planning.

scholarly journals QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE EVIDENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC FINGERPRINT IN FLOODING IN TARABA STATE OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-19
Author(s):  
T. G. Adelalu ◽  
A. Ibrahim ◽  
E. B. Benjamin ◽  
G. C. Yakubu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
The State ◽  
Flow Coefficient ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
River Basin Development

Anthropogenic nexus of environmental change is a vital issue in flood control and hazard management. While it is true that some will loom in flood and others in drought, it is no longer valid to argue the authenticity of climate change. Though climate change alters our physical veracities, the problem of yearly flooding is more a human than a natural one in Taraba State. This paper provides technical proof of anthropogenic impression in the incessant flooding in the area. Both spatial and hydro-climatic data were used for this study in addition to designed questionnaire. Hydro and climatic data were collected from Upper Benue River Basin Development Agency, Yola. Correlation matrix was used to show the extent of climatic variation and GIS depicts the land use change. Rainfall has not related well with excess channel flow. Coefficient of variation in rainfall and runoff is not pronounced. R- Factor in all the gauging stations is very low. Built up area occupied just 2.8% of the area accounting for 806.9 hectares. Cultivated area and the bare land was about 13146.2 hectares. This accounts for about 46.3% of the area. Vegetation cover occupied more than half of the study area. This accounts for 50.1% of the land mass of the catchment area under study. Owing to the occurrence of good vegetation cover, which is more than 50% of the basin area, generally one would have expected low occurrence of flooding in the study area. The farmers’ assessment agreed with the scientific analysis. The runoff volumes that traverse the state three decades ago without much disturbance now pose a serious ache. Though Inter catchment link and discharge thereof is a factor, the cogwheel pinpoints land use change and encroachment of floodplain. Parastatals involved in the land survey and planning of the state should wake up to the challenge.

scholarly journals Application of remote sensing and GIS for assessing the level of change of land use status in the coast of Ngoc Hien district (Ca Mau province) due to the impact of sea level rise

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3B) ◽  
pp. 227-237
Author(s):  
Pham Viet Hong ◽  
Tran Anh Tuan ◽  
Nguyen Thi Anh Nguyet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
The Impact

Today, environmental hazards and challenges are no longer confined to the national or regional scale but on the global scale. One of the biggest challenges for humanity is the natural disasters, global warming and sea level rise. The natural disasters causing serious consequences for human life, such as: Storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, desertification, high tides... increase in frequency, intensity and scale. In recent years, Ca Mau province as well as coastal provinces of Vietnam is under great influence due to the impacts of climate change. One of the most affected districts in Ca Mau province is Ngoc Hien district. The district has a geographic location with three sides bordering the sea, one side bordering the river, a completely isolated terrain. The terrain is flat, strongly divided by the system of natural rivers and canals and intertwined canals, so it is constantly flooded by the sea. Ngoc Hien district is characterized by a sub-equatorial monsoon climate, directly affected by irregular semi-diurnal regime. The main purpose of the paper is to assess coastal vulnerability due to the impact of climate change over time with GIS-based remote sensing images. Remote sensing data with multi-time characteristics, collected in many periods and covering a wide area is an effective tool for monitoring shoreline fluctuations in particular and land use status of the study area in general.

Surface water resource assessment of paddy rice production under climate change in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: a system dynamics modeling approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 514-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thanh Tuu ◽  
Jeejae Lim ◽  
Seungdo Kim ◽  
Van Pham Dang Tri ◽  
Hyeonkyeong Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Surface Water Resource

Abstract Water demands and stresses in the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) are of high concern for the coming decade. System dynamics modeling (SDM) can be used to understand the impacts of the changes on water resources at a regional scale. SDM framework was applied to assess the impacts of land use changes and climate on surface water resource in the VMD. The developed model was modified from a global-scale model and added in-situ specific variables to model the conditions of the VMD using historical data during 1986–2005, and future projections to 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Projected changes in land use and population were based on the most recent governmental resolution to support adaptation and the national plans. Temperature and rainfall changes cause the increase in water stress; however, it could be mitigated by shifting from three to two crops of rice each year. Water stress differs from place to place, such as in freshwater and brackish coastal zones. Water stress is most strongly affected by changed temperature, rather than rainfall. The developed system dynamics model and framework can be effectively applied in the VMD to support decision-making about sustainable water use for paddy rice.

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