Riverine Flooding and Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long Yang ◽  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
Lachun Wang ◽  
Xiaomin Ji ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

<p>Riverine flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Western North Pacific basin is responsible for some of the most severe socioeconomic losses in East Asian countries. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of TC flooding and its synoptic controls, which constrain predictive understandings of flood risk in this highly populated region. In this study, we investigate hydrology, hydrometeorology, and hydroclimatology of riverine flooding over China induced by landfalling tropical cyclones, based on empirical analysis of dense networks of stream gauging and rainfall stations as well as downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by 20th Century Reanalysis fields. The most extreme floods in central and northeastern China are associated with TCs despite infrequent TC visits in these regions. Inter-annual variations in TC flooding demonstrate a mixture of climate controls tied to surface temperature anomalies in central tropical Pacific, western North Pacific and north Atlantic. We implement numerical modelling analysis of typhoon Nina (1975), typhoon Andy (1982) and typhoon Herb (1996) to further shed light on key hydro-meteorological features of landfalling TCs that are responsible for severe flooding over China. We highlight the important role of interactions of storm circulations with mid-latitude synoptic systems (e.g., upper-level trough) and complex terrains in producing extreme rain rates and flooding. Analytical framework developed in this study aims to explore utilization of hydro-meteorological approach in flood-control engineering designs by providing details on the key elements of flood-producing storms. We also highlight potential challenges of developing predictive tools of TC flood risk in east Asian countries.</p>

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihong Moon ◽  
Jinyoung Park ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Yumin Moon
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Steering Vector ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Group 1

AbstractIn this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF model) are verified. We utilize 12 km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. One hundred and twenty-five forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moves northward in subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

scholarly journals On Relationships between Nonrecurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, and the East Asian Subtropical Jet

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-917
Author(s):  
Lawrence C. Gloeckler ◽  
Paul E. Roundy
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Subtropical Jet

Abstract A 200-hPa zonal momentum budget is performed to examine the role that western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in helping to organize intraseasonal extratropical circulation anomalies that occur with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Zonal wind is linearly decomposed into components that occur on MJO time scales (i.e., 20–100-day periods), as well as those that occur with lower and higher frequency. Dates during Northern Hemisphere fall that feature nonrecurving TCs within a search radius centered on a South China Sea grid point when the MJO is convectively active over the Maritime Continent and west Pacific warm pool are used to generate composites of relevant budget terms. These composites are then compared to others that are based on the full list of dates that feature a convectively active MJO in the same location during NH fall without regard for TC presence. Composite results highlight the primary momentum sources that guide the evolution of the NH extratropical zonal wind and associated mass field in each event set. TCs help to accelerate the East Asian subtropical jet that evolves with the MJO by modulating the high-frequency subtropical circulation over Southeast Asia. The phasing of this circulation with its underlying MJO time-scale component enables it to transfer momentum to the emerging subtropical jet. This momentum is integrated into the more slowly evolving flow and carried forward by other processes, which leads to the development of a westerly momentum surge along the subtropical jet that spans the length of the North Pacific Ocean.

scholarly journals Role of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in the East Asian summer monsoon system

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian Chen ◽  
◽  
Zhong Zhong ◽  
YiJia Hu ◽  
Shi Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Monsoon System ◽  
Asian Summer

Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of Western North Pacific and East Asia Landfalling Tropical Cyclones using the GFDL FLOR Coupled Climate Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 2209-2232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami ◽  
Richard Gudgel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Meridional Mode ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

Abstract This study attempts to improve the prediction of western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia (EA) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using modes of large-scale climate variability [e.g., the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (NASST)] as predictors in a hybrid statistical–dynamical scheme, based on dynamical model forecasts with the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with flux adjustments (FLOR-FA). Overall, the predictive skill of the hybrid model for the WNP TC frequency increases from lead month 5 (initialized in January) to lead month 0 (initialized in June) in terms of correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The hybrid model outperforms FLOR-FA in predicting WNP TC frequency for all lead months. The predictive skill of the hybrid model improves as the forecast lead time decreases, with values of the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.56 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.69 in June. The hybrid models for landfalling TCs over the entire East Asian (EEA) coast and its three subregions [i.e., southern EA (SEA), middle EA (MEA), and northern EA (NEA)] dramatically outperform FLOR-FA. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed TC landfall over SEA increases from 0.52 for forecasts initialized in January to 0.64 in June. The hybrid models substantially reduce the RMSE of landfalling TCs over SEA and EEA compared with FLOR-FA. This study suggests that the PMM and NASST/AMM can be used to improve statistical/hybrid forecast models for the frequencies of WNP or East Asia landfalling TCs.

scholarly journals Impacts of Tropical North Atlantic SST on Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 853-862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Si Gao ◽  
Zhifan Chen ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Tropical North Atlantic ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

This study examines the impacts of tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on western North Pacific (WNP) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The authors find that TNA SSTA has significant negative correlations with the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia. TNA SSTA influences the frequency of TC landfalls in these regions by regulating TC genesis location and frequency associated with modulated environmental conditions. During cold TNA SST years, larger low-level relative vorticity and weaker vertical wind shear lead to more TC formations over the South China Sea (SCS) and western Philippine Sea (WPS), and larger low-level relative vorticity, higher midlevel relative humidity, and weaker vertical wind shear result in more TC formations over the eastern part of WNP (EWNP). More TCs forming over different regions are important for more TC landfalls in Vietnam (mainly forming over the SCS and WPS), south China (predominantly forming over the SCS), Taiwan (mostly forming over the WPS), and the Korean Peninsula and Japan (forming over the WPS and EWNP). Tracks of these landfalling TCs basically follow the mean steering flow in spite of different directions of steering flow anomalies in the vicinity. The modulation of large-scale environments by TNA SSTA may be through two possible pathways proposed in previous studies: the Indian Ocean relaying effect and the subtropical eastern Pacific relaying effect. The results of this study suggest that TNA SSTA is a potential predictor for the frequency of TCs making landfall in China, Vietnam, the Korean Peninsula and Japan, and the entirety of East Asia.

Evaluation of WRF model simulations of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific over the CORDEX East Asia domain

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2419-2435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqiang Shen ◽  
Jianping Tang ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
Shuyu Wang ◽  
Xiaorui Niu
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Cordex East Asia

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-434
Author(s):  
Shumin Chen ◽  
Weibiao Li ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Mingsen Zhou ◽  
Youyu Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
High Frequency Oscillations
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