scholarly journals Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model version 5: Evaluation for Western North Pacific

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoning Wu ◽  
Kevin Reed ◽  
Michael Wehner ◽  
Julio Bacmeister ◽  
Patrick Callaghan
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Atmosphere Model

scholarly journals High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-334
Author(s):  
J. G. McLay ◽  
E. A. Hendricks ◽  
J. Moskaitis
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
Western North Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACT A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, high-resolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ≈ 0.5144 m s−1) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at >64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt.

scholarly journals CAM6 simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over Asia: sensitivity to upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3773-3793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Lin ◽  
Andrew Gettelman ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Chenglai Wu ◽  
Zhili Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Physical Parameterizations

Abstract. The Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), released in 2018 as part of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), is a major upgrade over the previous CAM5 that has been used in numerous global and regional climate studies. Since CESM2–CAM6 will participate in the upcoming Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and is likely to be adopted in many future studies, its simulation fidelity needs to be thoroughly examined. Here we evaluate the performance of a developmental version of the Community Atmosphere Model with parameterizations that will be used in version 6 (CAM6α), with a default 1∘ horizontal resolution (0.9∘×1.25∘, CAM6α-1∘) and a high-resolution configuration (approximately 0.25∘, CAM6α-0.25∘), against various observational and reanalysis datasets of precipitation over Asia. CAM6α performance is compared with CAM5 at default 1∘ horizontal resolution (CAM5-1∘) and a high-resolution configuration at 0.25∘ (CAM5-0.25∘). With the prognostic treatment of precipitation processes and the new microphysics module, CAM6α is able to better simulate climatological mean and extreme precipitation over Asia, better capture the heaviest precipitation events, better reproduce the diurnal cycle of precipitation rates over most of Asia, and better simulate the probability density distributions of daily precipitation over Tibet, Korea, Japan and northern China. Higher horizontal resolution in CAM6α improves the simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over northern China, but the performance degrades over the Maritime Continent. Moisture budget diagnosis suggests that the physical processes leading to model improvement are different over different regions. Both upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution affect the simulated precipitation response to the internal variability of the climate system (e.g., Asian monsoon variability, El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO), but the effects vary across different regions. For example, higher horizontal resolution degrades the model performance in simulating precipitation variability over southern China associated with the East Asian summer monsoon. In contrast, precipitation variability associated with ENSO improves with upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution. CAM6α-0.25∘ and CAM6α-1∘ show an opposite response to the PDO over southern China. Basically, the response to increases in horizontal resolution is dependent on the CAM version.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 423-434
Author(s):  
Shumin Chen ◽  
Weibiao Li ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Mingsen Zhou ◽  
Youyu Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
High Frequency Oscillations

Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific. Part I: Energetics Diagnosis*

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 927-941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pang-chi Hsu ◽  
Tim Li ◽  
Chih-Hua Tsou
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Energy Conversion ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Active Phase ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Synoptic Eddies ◽  
Barotropic Energy Conversion

Abstract The role of scale interactions in the maintenance of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) during the extreme phases of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is examined through the construction of a new eddy energetics diagnostic tool that separates the effects of ISO and a low-frequency background state (LFBS; with periods longer than 90 days). The LFBS always contributes positively toward the EKE in the boreal summer, regardless of the ISO phases. The synoptic eddies extract energy from the ISO during the ISO active phase. This positive barotropic energy conversion occurs when the synoptic eddies interact with low-level cyclonic and convergent–confluent ISO flows. This contrasts with the ISO suppressed phase during which the synoptic eddies lose kinetic energy to the ISO flow. The anticyclonic and divergent–diffluent ISO flows during the suppressed phase are responsible for the negative barotropic energy conversion. A positive (negative) EKE tendency occurs during the ISO suppressed-to-active (active-to-suppressed) transitional phase. The cause of this asymmetric EKE tendency is attributed to the spatial phase relation among the ISO vorticity, eddy structure, and EKE. The southwest–northeast-tilted synoptic disturbances interacting with cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity of ISO lead to a positive (negative) EKE tendency in the northwest region of the maximum EKE center. The genesis number and location and intensification rate of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific are closely related to the barotropic energy conversion. The enhanced barotropic energy conversion favors the generation and development of synoptic seed disturbances, some of which eventually grow into tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (6) ◽  
pp. 333-338
Author(s):  
He Jie-Lin ◽  
Guan Zhao-Yong ◽  
Qian Dai-Li ◽  
Wan Qi-Lin ◽  
Wang Li-Juan
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific
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