Revising the 11-year Solar Cycle Response in Stratospheric Ozone Using an Ensemble of Lasso and Ridge Regression Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Ryan Hossaini
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Trends

<p>Solar flux variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle are believed to exert an important climate forcing via changes in stratospheric ozone. However, our understanding of the ozone solar cycle signal (SCS) was significantly revised with the availability of updated SAGE II v7 data. For example, Dhomse et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2016) analysed SAGE II v7 data to show a much smaller upper stratosphere ozone SCS, as well as a more realistic ozone-temperature anti-correlation, that agreed with the relatively short HALOE and AURA-MLS data records. Here, we analyse AURA-MLS satellite data and output from the TOMCAT 3D chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate the ozone SCS for the 2005-2020 period, which covers one of smallest solar cycles (number 24) of the last 100 years. Along with a control simulation, various model simulations with combinations of different dynamical (e.g. ERA5, ERA-Interim, fixed), chemical (e.g. constant ozone depleting substances) and solar flux (NRL, SATIRE, SORCE solar irradiances) forcings are analysed.</p><p>Our earlier studies use an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multivariate regression model to estimate the SCS. However, most of the relevant atmospheric variables are correlated. Hence, to avoid this collinearity problem, we use an ensemble of Lasso and Ridge multivariate regression models and their variants to quantify the SCS in stratospheric ozone. Overall, both MLS and the CTM simulations show a vertical “double-peak”-structured ozone SCS in the tropical stratosphere. However, compared to previous studies, the regression ensemble mean shows a somewhat larger signal in the middle stratosphere and does not show a negative SCS in the lower and upper stratosphere. Our analysis also shows significant inter-hemispheric and seasonal differences in lower stratospheric ozone trends over the 2005-2020 time period (i.e. recent ozone recovery phase). Our CTM simulations also confirm that recent negative ozone trends in the northern hemispheric mid-latitude lower stratosphere (Chipperfield et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2018), are primarily caused by changes in the stratospheric circulation.</p>

scholarly journals Trends in Stratospheric Ozone: Lessons Learned from a 3D Chemical Transport Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 1028-1041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard S. Stolarski ◽  
Anne R. Douglass ◽  
Stephen Steenrod ◽  
Steven Pawson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Ultraviolet Radiation ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
The Past

Abstract Stratospheric ozone is affected by external factors such as chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs), volcanoes, and the 11-yr solar cycle variation of ultraviolet radiation. Dynamical variability due to the quasi-biennial oscillation and other factors also contribute to stratospheric ozone variability. A research focus during the past two decades has been to quantify the downward trend in ozone due to the increase in industrially produced CFCs. During the coming decades research will focus on detection and attribution of the expected recovery of ozone as the CFCs are slowly removed from the atmosphere. A chemical transport model (CTM) has been used to simulate stratospheric composition for the past 30 yr and the next 20 yr using 50 yr of winds and temperatures from a general circulation model (GCM). The simulation includes the solar cycle in ultraviolet radiation, a representation of aerosol surface areas based on observations including volcanic perturbations from El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, and time-dependent mixing ratio boundary conditions for CFCs, halons, and other source gases such as N2O and CH4. A second CTM simulation was carried out for identical solar flux and boundary conditions but with constant “background” aerosol conditions. The GCM integration included an online ozonelike tracer with specified production and loss that was used to evaluate the effects of interannual variability in dynamics. Statistical time series analysis was applied to both observed and simulated ozone to examine the capability of the analyses for the determination of trends in ozone due to CFCs and to separate these trends from the solar cycle and volcanic effects in the atmosphere. The results point out several difficulties associated with the interpretation of time series analyses of atmospheric ozone data. In particular, it is shown that lengthening the dataset reduces the uncertainty in derived trend due to interannual dynamic variability. It is further shown that interannual variability can make it difficult to accurately assess the impact of a volcanic eruption, such as Pinatubo, on ozone. Such uncertainties make it difficult to obtain an early proof of ozone recovery in response to decreasing chlorine.

The impact of iodine on ozone trends in the lower stratosphere

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Yajuan Li ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Ozone Layer ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Heterogeneous Processes ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Phase Chemistry ◽  
The Impact

<p>Depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer by chlorine and bromine species has been a major environmental issue since the early 1970s. Following controls on the production of the long-lived halocarbons which transport chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere, the ozone layer is expected to recover over the course of this century. Decreases in the stratospheric loading of chlorine and bromine have been observed and there are signs of this resulting in an increase in ozone in the upper stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. However, in contrast to this expectation of increasing stratospheric ozone, Ball et al. (ACP doi:10.5194/acp-18-1379-2018, 2018, ACP doi:10.5194/acp-19-12731-2019, 2019) have reported evidence for an ongoing decline in lower stratospheric ozone at extrapolar latitudes between 60°S and 60°N. Chipperfield et al. (GRL, doi:10.1029/2018GL078071, 2018) analysed these results using the TOMCAT 3-D chemical transport model (CTM). They reported that much of the observed ozone decrease could be explained by dynamical variability. Furthermore, they investigated the potential role for bromine and chlorine from very short-lived species (VSLS) but found only a small contribution.</p><p>Very recently, Koenig et al. (PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.1916828117, 2020) have reported quantitative observations of almost 1 pptv iodine in the lower stratosphere. They show that this iodine is an important contribution to the local iodine loss budget and speculate that a trend in iodine could therefore explain the observed downward trend in ozone.</p><p>Here we use an updated version of the TOMCAT CTM to investigate the impact of iodine on lower stratospheric ozone trends. We repeat the simulations of Chipperfield et al. (2018), using both ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses (to compare the quantification of the dynamical contribution). We use assume trends in the stratospheric injection of iodine to quantify the possible impact of this on global ozone trends through both gas-phase chemistry and novel heterogeneous processes.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A Single-Peak-Structured Solar Cycle Signal in Stratospheric Ozone based on Microwave Limb Sounder Observations and Model Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Graham W. Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Single Peak ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Simulations

Abstract. Until now our understanding of the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone has been largely based on high quality but sparse ozone profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II or coarsely resolved ozone profiles from the nadir-viewing Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite instruments. Here, we analyse 16 years (2005–2020) of ozone profile measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to estimate the 11-year SCS in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis of Aura-MLS data suggests a single-peak-structured SCS profile (about 3 % near 4 hPa or 40 km) in tropical stratospheric ozone, which is significantly different to the SAGE II and SBUV-based double-peak-structured SCS. We also find that MLS-observed ozone variations are more consistent with ozone from our control model simulation that uses Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) v2 solar fluxes. However, in the lowermost stratosphere where modelled ozone shows a negligible SCS compared to about 1 % in Aura-MLS data. An ensemble of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and three regularised (Lasso, Ridge and ElasticNet) linear regression models confirms the robustness of the estimated SCS. Our analysis of MLS and model simulations also shows a large SCS in the Antarctic lower stratosphere that was not seen in earlier studies. We also analyse chemical transport model simulations with alternative solar flux data. We find that in the upper (and middle) stratosphere the model simulation with Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite solar fluxes are also consistent with the MLS-derived SCS and agree well with the control simulation and one which uses Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstructions (SATIRE) solar fluxes. Hence, our model simulation suggests that with recent adjustments and corrections, SORCE solar fluxes can be used to analyse effects of solar flux variations. Finally, we argue that the overall significantly different SCS compared to earlier estimates might be due to a combination of different factors such as much denser MLS measurements, almost linear stratospheric chlorine loading changes over the analysis period, as well as a stratospheric aerosol layer relatively unperturbed by major volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Stratospheric impact on tropospheric ozone variability and trends: 1990–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 649-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Hess ◽  
R. Zbinden
Keyword(s):  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Environmental Prediction

Abstract. The influence of stratospheric ozone on the interannual variability and trends in tropospheric ozone is evaluated between 30 and 90° N from 1990–2009 using ozone measurements and a global chemical transport model, the Community Atmospheric Model with chemistry (CAM-chem). Long-term measurements from ozonesondes, at 150 and 500 hPa, and the Measurements of OZone and water vapour by in-service Airbus aircraft programme (MOZAIC), at 500 hPa, are analyzed over Japan, Canada, the Eastern US and Northern and Central Europe. The measurements generally emphasize northern latitudes, although the simulation suggests that measurements over the Canadian, Northern and Central European regions are representative of the large-scale interannual ozone variability from 30 to 90° N at 500 hPa. CAM-chem is run with input meteorology from the National Center for Environmental Prediction; a tagging methodology is used to identify the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone concentrations. A variant of the synthetic ozone tracer (synoz) is used to represent stratospheric ozone. Both the model and measurements indicate that on large spatial scales stratospheric interannual ozone variability drives significant tropospheric variability at 500 hPa and the surface. In particular, the simulation and the measurements suggest large stratospheric influence at the surface sites of Mace Head (Ireland) and Jungfraujoch (Switzerland) as well as many 500 hPa measurement locations. Both the measurements and simulation suggest the stratosphere has contributed to tropospheric ozone trends. In many locations between 30–90° N 500 hPa ozone significantly increased from 1990–2000, but has leveled off since (from 2000–2009). The simulated global ozone budget suggests global stratosphere-troposphere exchange increased in 1998–1999 in association with a global ozone anomaly. Discrepancies between the simulated and measured ozone budget include a large underestimation of measured ozone variability and discrepancies in long-term stratospheric ozone trends. This suggests the need for more sophisticated simulations including better representations of stratospheric chemistry and circulation.

Record springtime stratospheric ozone depletion at 80°N in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramina Alwarda ◽  
Kristof Bognar ◽  
Kimberly Strong ◽  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Polar Stratospheric Clouds ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Stratospheric Clouds

<p>The Arctic winter of 2019-2020 was characterized by an unusually persistent polar vortex and temperatures in the lower stratosphere that were consistently below the threshold for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). These conditions led to ozone loss that is comparable to the Antarctic ozone hole. Ground-based measurements from a suite of instruments at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) in Eureka, Canada (80.05°N, 86.42°W) were used to investigate chemical ozone depletion. The vortex was located above Eureka longer than in any previous year in the 20-year dataset and lidar measurements provided evidence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) above Eureka. Additionally, UV-visible zenith-sky Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements showed record ozone loss in the 20-year dataset, evidence of denitrification along with the slowest increase of NO<sub>2</sub> during spring, as well as enhanced reactive halogen species (OClO and BrO). Complementary measurements of HCl and ClONO<sub>2</sub> (chlorine reservoir species) from a Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer showed unusually low columns that were comparable to 2011, the previous year with significant chemical ozone depletion. Record low values of HNO<sub>3</sub> in the FTIR dataset are in accordance with the evidence of PSCs and a denitrified atmosphere. Estimates of chemical ozone loss were derived using passive ozone from the SLIMCAT offline chemical transport model to account for dynamical contributions to the stratospheric ozone budget.</p>

scholarly journals Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 12773-12786 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dhomse ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
W. Feng ◽  
J. D. Haigh
Keyword(s):  
Standard Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract. We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (re)analysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim) data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE) or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4%) solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which reduces the modelled ozone signal. The large positive upper stratospheric solar response seen in SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data can be reproduced in model runs with fixed dynamical fields (i.e. no inter-annual meteorological changes). As these runs effectively assume no long-term temperature changes (solar-induced or otherwise), it should provide an upper limit of the ozone solar response. Overall, full quantification of the solar response in stratospheric ozone is limited by differences in the observed data sets and by uncertainties in the solar response in stratospheric temperatures.

scholarly journals Tagged ozone mechanism for MOZART-4, CAM-chem and other chemical transport models

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1531-1542 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. K. Emmons ◽  
P. G. Hess ◽  
J.-F. Lamarque ◽  
G. G. Pfister
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Chemical Tracers ◽  
Source Contributions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
No Emissions

Abstract. A procedure for tagging ozone produced from NO sources through updates to an existing chemical mechanism is described, and results from its implementation in the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers (MOZART-4), a global chemical transport model, are presented. Artificial tracers are added to the mechanism, thus, not affecting the standard chemistry. The results are linear in the troposphere, i.e., the sum of ozone from individual tagged sources equals the ozone from all sources to within 3% in zonal mean monthly averages. In addition, the tagged ozone is shown to equal the standard ozone, when all tropospheric sources are tagged and stratospheric input is turned off. The stratospheric ozone contribution to the troposphere determined from the difference between total ozone and ozone from all tagged sources is significantly less than estimates using a traditional stratospheric ozone tracer (8 vs. 20 ppbv at the surface). The commonly used technique of perturbing NO emissions by 20% in a region to determine its ozone contribution is compared to the tagging technique, showing that the tagged ozone is 2–4 times the ozone contribution that was deduced from perturbing emissions. The ozone tagging described here is useful for identifying source contributions based on NO emissions in a given state of the atmosphere, such as for quantifying the ozone budget.

scholarly journals Stratospheric O3 changes during 2001–2010: the small role of solar flux variations in a chemical transport model

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10113-10123 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. Dhomse ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
W. Feng ◽  
W. T. Ball ◽  
Y. C. Unruh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Flux Data ◽  
Broadband Emission ◽  
Short Time Span ◽  
Modelling Studies

Abstract. Solar spectral fluxes (or irradiance) measured by the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) show different variability at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths compared to other irradiance measurements and models (e.g. NRL-SSI, SATIRE-S). Some modelling studies have suggested that stratospheric/lower mesospheric O3 changes during solar cycle 23 (1996–2008) can only be reproduced if SORCE solar fluxes are used. We have used a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM), forced by meteorology from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to simulate middle atmospheric O3 using three different solar flux data sets (SORCE, NRL-SSI and SATIRE-S). Simulated O3 changes are compared with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite data. Modelled O3 anomalies from all solar flux data sets show good agreement with the observations, despite the different flux variations. The off-line CTM reproduces these changes through dynamical information contained in the analyses. A notable feature during this period is a robust positive solar signal in the tropical middle stratosphere, which is due to realistic dynamical changes in our simulations. Ozone changes in the lower mesosphere cannot be used to discriminate between solar flux data sets due to large uncertainties and the short time span of the observations. Overall this study suggests that, in a CTM, the UV variations detected by SORCE are not necessary to reproduce observed stratospheric O3 changes during 2001–2010.

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