scholarly journals A Single-Peak-Structured Solar Cycle Signal in Stratospheric Ozone based on Microwave Limb Sounder Observations and Model Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandip S. Dhomse ◽  
Martyn P. Chipperfield ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Graham W. Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Single Peak ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Simulations

Abstract. Until now our understanding of the 11-year solar cycle signal (SCS) in stratospheric ozone has been largely based on high quality but sparse ozone profiles from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II or coarsely resolved ozone profiles from the nadir-viewing Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV) satellite instruments. Here, we analyse 16 years (2005–2020) of ozone profile measurements from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to estimate the 11-year SCS in stratospheric ozone. Our analysis of Aura-MLS data suggests a single-peak-structured SCS profile (about 3 % near 4 hPa or 40 km) in tropical stratospheric ozone, which is significantly different to the SAGE II and SBUV-based double-peak-structured SCS. We also find that MLS-observed ozone variations are more consistent with ozone from our control model simulation that uses Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) v2 solar fluxes. However, in the lowermost stratosphere where modelled ozone shows a negligible SCS compared to about 1 % in Aura-MLS data. An ensemble of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and three regularised (Lasso, Ridge and ElasticNet) linear regression models confirms the robustness of the estimated SCS. Our analysis of MLS and model simulations also shows a large SCS in the Antarctic lower stratosphere that was not seen in earlier studies. We also analyse chemical transport model simulations with alternative solar flux data. We find that in the upper (and middle) stratosphere the model simulation with Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite solar fluxes are also consistent with the MLS-derived SCS and agree well with the control simulation and one which uses Spectral and Total Irradiance Reconstructions (SATIRE) solar fluxes. Hence, our model simulation suggests that with recent adjustments and corrections, SORCE solar fluxes can be used to analyse effects of solar flux variations. Finally, we argue that the overall significantly different SCS compared to earlier estimates might be due to a combination of different factors such as much denser MLS measurements, almost linear stratospheric chlorine loading changes over the analysis period, as well as a stratospheric aerosol layer relatively unperturbed by major volcanic eruptions.

Revising the 11-year Solar Cycle Response in Stratospheric Ozone Using an Ensemble of Lasso and Ridge Regression Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martyn Chipperfield ◽  
Sandip Dhomse ◽  
Wuhu Feng ◽  
Ryan Hossaini
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Solar Flux ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Ozone Trends

<p>Solar flux variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle are believed to exert an important climate forcing via changes in stratospheric ozone. However, our understanding of the ozone solar cycle signal (SCS) was significantly revised with the availability of updated SAGE II v7 data. For example, Dhomse et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 2016) analysed SAGE II v7 data to show a much smaller upper stratosphere ozone SCS, as well as a more realistic ozone-temperature anti-correlation, that agreed with the relatively short HALOE and AURA-MLS data records. Here, we analyse AURA-MLS satellite data and output from the TOMCAT 3D chemical transport model (CTM) to estimate the ozone SCS for the 2005-2020 period, which covers one of smallest solar cycles (number 24) of the last 100 years. Along with a control simulation, various model simulations with combinations of different dynamical (e.g. ERA5, ERA-Interim, fixed), chemical (e.g. constant ozone depleting substances) and solar flux (NRL, SATIRE, SORCE solar irradiances) forcings are analysed.</p><p>Our earlier studies use an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multivariate regression model to estimate the SCS. However, most of the relevant atmospheric variables are correlated. Hence, to avoid this collinearity problem, we use an ensemble of Lasso and Ridge multivariate regression models and their variants to quantify the SCS in stratospheric ozone. Overall, both MLS and the CTM simulations show a vertical “double-peak”-structured ozone SCS in the tropical stratosphere. However, compared to previous studies, the regression ensemble mean shows a somewhat larger signal in the middle stratosphere and does not show a negative SCS in the lower and upper stratosphere. Our analysis also shows significant inter-hemispheric and seasonal differences in lower stratospheric ozone trends over the 2005-2020 time period (i.e. recent ozone recovery phase). Our CTM simulations also confirm that recent negative ozone trends in the northern hemispheric mid-latitude lower stratosphere (Chipperfield et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2018), are primarily caused by changes in the stratospheric circulation.</p>

Monitoring the Variability of the Stratospheric Aerosol Layer over Tomsk in 2016–2018 Based on Lidar Data

2021 ◽  
pp. 61-72
Author(s):  
V. N. Marichev ◽  
◽  
D. A. Bochkovskiia ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Temperature Inversion ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Single Frequency ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Lidar Data ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Academy Of Sciences

The results of observations of the features of intraannual variability for the vertical structure of background aerosol in the stratosphere over Western Siberia in 2016–2018 are presented and analyzed. Experimental data were obtained at the lidar complex of Zuev Institute of Atmospheric Optics (Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences) with a receiving mirror diameter of 1 m. The objective of the study is to investigate the dynamics of background stratospheric aerosol, since during this period there were no volcanic eruptions leading to the transport of eruptive aerosol into the stratosphere. The results of the study confirm a stable intraannual cycle of maximum aerosol filling of the stratosphere in winter, a decrease in spring to the minimum, practical absence in summer, and an increase in autumn. At the same time, the variability of stratification and aerosol filling is observed for different years. It was found that aerosol is concentrated in the layer up to 30 km all year round, except for the winter period. It is shown that the vertical aerosol stratification is largely determined by the thermal regime of the tropo- sphere–stratosphere boundary layer. The absence of a pronounced temperature inversion at the tropopause contributes to an increase in the stratosphere–troposphere exchange and, as a result, to the aerosol transport to the stratosphere. This situation is typical of the cold season. For the first time, data on the quantitative content of stratospheric aerosol (its mass concentration) were obtained from single- frequency lidar data.

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

scholarly journals Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 12773-12786 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Dhomse ◽  
M. P. Chipperfield ◽  
W. Feng ◽  
J. D. Haigh
Keyword(s):  
Standard Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Model Study ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract. We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (re)analysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim) data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE) or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4%) solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which reduces the modelled ozone signal. The large positive upper stratospheric solar response seen in SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data can be reproduced in model runs with fixed dynamical fields (i.e. no inter-annual meteorological changes). As these runs effectively assume no long-term temperature changes (solar-induced or otherwise), it should provide an upper limit of the ozone solar response. Overall, full quantification of the solar response in stratospheric ozone is limited by differences in the observed data sets and by uncertainties in the solar response in stratospheric temperatures.

scholarly journals Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry W. Thomason ◽  
Mahesh Kovilakam ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Christian von Savigny ◽  
Travis Knepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Extinction Coefficient ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Extinction ◽  
Volcanic Event ◽  
Aerosol Extinction Coefficient

Abstract. An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption's main aerosol layer and an apparent change in aerosol size distribution that spans multiple orders of magnitude in the stratospheric impact of a volcanic event. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main aerosol layer may significantly modulate these results. Despite this limitation, these findings represent a unique opportunity to verify the performance of interactive aerosol models used in Global Climate Models and Earth System Model and may suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single channel observations such the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a priori assumptions about particle size.

scholarly journals Evidence for the predictability of changes in the stratospheric aerosol size following volcanic eruptions of diverse magnitudes using space-based instruments

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 1143-1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry W. Thomason ◽  
Mahesh Kovilakam ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
Christian von Savigny ◽  
Travis Knepp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extinction Coefficient ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Single Channel ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Aerosol Extinction ◽  
Aerosol Extinction Coefficient

Abstract. An analysis of multiwavelength stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II and III/ISS instruments is used to demonstrate a coherent relationship between the perturbation in extinction coefficient in an eruption's main aerosol layer and the wavelength dependence of that perturbation. This relationship spans multiple orders of magnitude in the aerosol extinction coefficient of stratospheric impact of volcanic events. The relationship is measurement-based and does not rely on assumptions about the aerosol size distribution. We note limitations on this analysis including that the presence of significant amounts of ash in the main sulfuric acid aerosol layer and other factors may significantly modulate these results. Despite these limitations, the findings suggest an avenue for improving aerosol extinction coefficient measurements from single-channel observations such as the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System as they rely on a prior assumptions about particle size. They may also represent a distinct avenue for the comparison of observations with interactive aerosol models used in global climate models and Earth system models.

scholarly journals CALIPSO level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile product: version 1.00 algorithm description and initial assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 6173-6191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayanta Kar ◽  
Kam-Pui Lee ◽  
Mark A. Vaughan ◽  
Jason L. Tackett ◽  
Charles R. Trepte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Space Station ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Satellite Observation ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Stratospheric Dynamics ◽  
Level 3 ◽  
Lidar Ratio

Abstract. In August 2018, the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) project released a new level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile data product derived from nearly 12 years of measurements acquired by the spaceborne Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). This monthly averaged, gridded level 3 product is based on version 4 of the CALIOP level 1B and level 2 data products, which feature significantly improved calibration that now makes it possible to reliably retrieve profiles of stratospheric aerosol extinction and backscatter coefficients at 532 nm. This paper describes the science algorithm and data handling techniques that were developed to generate the CALIPSO version 1.00 level 3 stratospheric aerosol profile product. Further, we show that the extinction profiles (retrieved using a constant lidar ratio of 50 sr) capture the major stratospheric perturbations in both hemispheres over the last decade resulting from volcanic eruptions, extreme smoke events, and signatures of stratospheric dynamics. Initial assessment of the product by intercomparison with the stratospheric aerosol retrievals from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) indicates good agreement in the tropical stratospheric aerosol layer (30∘ N–30∘ S), where the average difference between zonal mean extinction profiles is typically less than 25 % between 20 and 30 km (CALIPSO biased high). However, differences can exceed 100 % in the very low aerosol loading regimes found above 25 km at higher latitudes. Similarly, there are large differences (≥100 %) within 2 to 3 km above the tropopause that might be due to cloud contamination issues.

scholarly journals Particulate sulfur in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere – sources and climate forcing

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 10937-10953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bengt G. Martinsson ◽  
Johan Friberg ◽  
Oscar S. Sandvik ◽  
Markus Hermann ◽  
Peter F. J. van Velthoven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Chemical Elements ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Pixe Analysis ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Particulate Sulfur ◽  
Fine Mode

Abstract. This study is based on fine-mode aerosol samples collected in the upper troposphere (UT) and the lowermost stratosphere (LMS) of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during monthly intercontinental flights at 8.8–12 km altitude of the IAGOS-CARIBIC platform in the time period 1999–2014. The samples were analyzed for a large number of chemical elements using the accelerator-based methods PIXE (particle-induced X-ray emission) and PESA (particle elastic scattering analysis). Here the particulate sulfur concentrations, obtained by PIXE analysis, are investigated. In addition, the satellite-borne lidar aboard CALIPSO is used to study the stratospheric aerosol load. A steep gradient in particulate sulfur concentration extends several kilometers into the LMS, as a result of increasing dilution towards the tropopause of stratospheric, particulate sulfur-rich air. The stratospheric air is diluted with tropospheric air, forming the extratropical transition layer (ExTL). Observed concentrations are related to the distance to the dynamical tropopause. A linear regression methodology handled seasonal variation and impact from volcanism. This was used to convert each data point into stand-alone estimates of a concentration profile and column concentration of particulate sulfur in a 3 km altitude band above the tropopause. We find distinct responses to volcanic eruptions, and that this layer in the LMS has a significant contribution to the stratospheric aerosol optical depth and thus to its radiative forcing. Further, the origin of UT particulate sulfur shows strong seasonal variation. We find that tropospheric sources dominate during the fall as a result of downward transport of the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) formed in the Asian monsoon, whereas transport down from the Junge layer is the main source of UT particulate sulfur in the first half of the year. In this latter part of the year, the stratosphere is the clearly dominating source of particulate sulfur in the UT during times of volcanic influence and under background conditions.

scholarly journals The Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP): motivation and experimental design

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2581-2608 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Graham W. Mann ◽  
Valentina Aquila ◽  
Rene Hommel ◽  
Lindsay A. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
Model Experiments ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulfur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present four co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The Background (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The Transient Aerosol Record (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulfur emissions, and transport processes over the period 1998–2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulfate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption.

scholarly journals Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-374 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steinbrecht ◽  
B. Haßler ◽  
C. Brühl ◽  
M. Dameris ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature

Abstract. We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to -10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to -40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around -0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to -30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.

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