A statistical-dynamical approach to improve subseasonal precipitation forecasts: application to the southwest tropical Pacific

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien Specq ◽  
Lauriane Batté
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Processing Scheme ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Wide Range

<p>Although there is an increasing interest in precipitation information at the subseasonal timescales in a wide range of sectors, the use of subseasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models is often impaired by poor reliability and low forecast skill. One crucial step to improve forecast quality is statistical correction and post-processing, which is particularly important for a parameterized variable like rainfall. This study introduces and evaluates a statistical-dynamical post-processing scheme, based on a Bayesian framework, that aims at providing more skillful and more reliable subseasonal forecasts of weekly precipitation. On the one hand, this method relies on the statistical relationship between observed and dynamically-forecast precipitation, that is determined in a set of reforecasts and depends on the lead time. On the other hand, it also takes advantage of the climatological impacts of large-scale drivers affecting rainfall, that are generally better represented by numerical models than rainfall itself. These two aspects of the method are respectively called calibration and bridging.</p><p>This statistical-dynamical prediction scheme is illustrated with an application to the austral summer precipitation in the southwest tropical Pacific, using the Météo-France and ECMWF reforecasts in the Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database. Indices representing El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation – the major sources of predictability in the area – are used for bridging. Probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall spells are evaluated in terms of discrimination (ROC skill score) and reliability, which are both improved by the Bayesian method at all lead times (from week 1 to week 4). Additional results show that the calibration part of the method, using forecast precipitation as a predictor, is necessary to enhance forecast skill. The bridging part also provides additional discrimination skill, that is mostly due to the ENSO-related information.</p>

Successive Modulation of ENSO to the Future Greenhouse Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
In-Sik Kang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The multidecadal modulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) due to greenhouse warming has been analyzed herein by means of diagnostics of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and the eigenanalysis of a simplified version of an intermediate ENSO model. The response of the global-mean troposphere temperature to increasing greenhouse gases is more likely linear, while the amplitude and period of ENSO fluctuates in a multidecadal time scale. The climate system model outputs suggest that the multidecadal modulation of ENSO is related to the delayed response of the subsurface temperature in the tropical Pacific compared to the response time of the sea surface temperature (SST), which would lead a modulation of the vertical temperature gradient. Furthermore, an eigenanalysis considering only two parameters, the changes in the zonal contrast of the mean background SST and the changes in the vertical contrast between the mean surface and subsurface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, exhibits a good agreement with the CGCM outputs in terms of the multidecadal modulations of the ENSO amplitude and period. In particular, the change in the vertical contrast, that is, change in difference between the subsurface temperature and SST, turns out to be more influential on the ENSO modulation than changes in the mean SST itself.

Evaluating the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Hiroki Tokinaga
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Mean State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

<p>General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic, as well as its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In particular the equatorial Atlantic warm SST and westerly wind biases are mostly eliminated in these models. Furthermore, interannual variability in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic is quite realistic in a number of CMIP6 models, which suggests that they should be useful tools for understanding and predicting variability patterns. The evolution of equatorial Atlantic biases follows the same pattern as in previous model generations, with westerly wind biases during boreal spring preceding warm sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the east during boreal summer. A substantial portion of the westerly wind bias exists already in atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SST, suggesting an atmospheric origin. While variability is relatively realistic in many models, SSTs seem less responsive to wind forcing than observed, both on the equator and in the subtropics, possibly due to an excessively deep mixed layer originating in the oceanic component. Thus models with realistic SST amplitude tend to have excessive wind amplitude. The models with the smallest mean state biases all have relatively high resolution but there are also a few low-resolution models that perform similarly well, indicating that resolution is not the only way toward reducing tropical Atlantic biases. The results also show a relatively weak link between mean state biases and the quality of the simulated variability. The linkage to the tropical Pacific shows a wide range of behaviors across models, indicating the need for further model improvement.</p>

scholarly journals A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs*

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (17) ◽  
pp. 5943-5961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristopher B. Karnauskas ◽  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Jesús Fidel González-Rouco
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Centennial Time Scale ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract Internal climate variability at the centennial time scale is investigated using long control integrations from three state-of-the-art global coupled general circulation models. In the absence of external forcing, all three models produce centennial variability in the mean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) gradients in the equatorial Pacific with counterparts in the extratropics. The centennial pattern in the tropical Pacific is dissimilar to that of the interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in that the most prominent expression in temperature is found beneath the surface of the western Pacific warm pool. Some global repercussions nevertheless are analogous, such as a hemispherically symmetric atmospheric wave pattern of alternating highs and lows. Centennial variability in western equatorial Pacific SST is a result of the strong asymmetry of interannual ocean heat content anomalies, while the eastern equatorial Pacific exhibits a lagged, Bjerknes-like response to temperature and convection in the west. The extratropical counterpart is shown to be a flux-driven response to the hemispherically symmetric circulation anomalies emanating from the tropical Pacific. Significant centennial-length trends in the zonal SST and SLP gradients rivaling those estimated from observations and model simulations forced with increasing CO2 appear to be inherent features of the internal climate dynamics simulated by all three models. Unforced variability and trends on the centennial time scale therefore need to be addressed in estimated uncertainties, beyond more traditional signal-to-noise estimates that do not account for natural variability on the centennial time scale.

scholarly journals Indo-Western Pacific Climate Variability: ENSO Forcing and Internal Dynamics in a Tropical Pacific Pacemaker Simulation

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 10123-10139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Yang Wang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Yu Kosaka
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Sst Anomalies

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaks in boreal winter but its impact on Indo-western Pacific climate persists for another two seasons. Key ocean–atmosphere interaction processes for the ENSO effect are investigated using the Pacific Ocean–Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment with a coupled general circulation model, where tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are restored to follow observations while the atmosphere and oceans are fully coupled elsewhere. The POGA shows skills in simulating the ENSO-forced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation pattern over the northwestern tropical Pacific in the post–El Niño spring and summer. The 10-member POGA ensemble allows decomposing Indo-western Pacific variability into the ENSO forced and ENSO-unrelated (internal) components. Internal variability is comparable to the ENSO forcing in magnitude and independent of ENSO amplitude and phase. Random internal variability causes apparent decadal modulations of ENSO correlations over the Indo-western Pacific, which are high during epochs of high ENSO variance. This is broadly consistent with instrumental observations over the past 130 years as documented in recent studies. Internal variability features a sea level pressure pattern that extends into the north Indian Ocean and is associated with coherent SST anomalies from the Arabian Sea to the western Pacific, suggestive of ocean–atmosphere coupling.

scholarly journals Links between Tropical Pacific SST and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 4647-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Xavier Rodó ◽  
James L. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Physical Mechanism ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Bacterial Disease ◽  
Monsoon Circulation

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial disease (WBD) endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a physical mechanism explaining this relationship has not yet been established. A regionally coupled, or “pacemaker,” configuration of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate links between sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the regional climate of Bangladesh. It is found that enhanced precipitation tends to follow winter El Niño events in both the model and observations, providing a plausible physical mechanism by which ENSO could influence cholera in Bangladesh. The enhanced precipitation in the model arises from a modification of the summer monsoon circulation over India and Bangladesh. Westerly wind anomalies over land to the west of Bangladesh lead to increased convergence in the zonal wind field and hence increased moisture convergence and rainfall. This change in circulation results from the tropics-wide warming in the model following a winter El Niño event. These results suggest that improved forecasting of cholera incidence may be possible through the use of climate predictions.

scholarly journals The faint young Sun problem revisited with a 3-D climate–carbon model – Part 1

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 697-713 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Le Hir ◽  
Y. Teitler ◽  
F. Fluteau ◽  
Y. Donnadieu ◽  
P. Philippot
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Freezing Point ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Concentrations

Abstract. During the Archaean, the Sun's luminosity was 18 to 25% lower than the present day. One-dimensional radiative convective models (RCM) generally infer that high concentrations of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) are required to prevent the early Earth's surface temperature from dropping below the freezing point of liquid water and satisfying the faint young Sun paradox (FYSP, an Earth temperature at least as warm as today). Using a one-dimensional (1-D) model, it was proposed in 2010 that the association of a reduced albedo and less reflective clouds may have been responsible for the maintenance of a warm climate during the Archaean without requiring high concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2). More recently, 3-D climate simulations have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These studies were able to solve the FYSP through a large range of carbon dioxide concentrations, from 0.6 bar with an EMIC to several millibars with AGCMs. To better understand this wide range in pCO2, we investigated the early Earth climate using an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean. Our simulations include the ice-albedo feedback and specific Archaean climatic factors such as a faster Earth rotation rate, high atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and/or CH4, a reduced continental surface, a saltier ocean, and different cloudiness. We estimated full glaciation thresholds for the early Archaean and quantified positive radiative forcing required to solve the FYSP. We also demonstrated why RCM and EMIC tend to overestimate greenhouse gas concentrations required to avoid full glaciations or solve the FYSP. Carbon cycle–climate interplays and conditions for sustaining pCO2 will be discussed in a companion paper.

scholarly journals Evaluation of a Unique Approach to High-Resolution Climate Modelling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) version 5.1

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison C. Michaelis ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann ◽  
Walter A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Northern Hemispheric

Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of present-day and future thermodynamic environments using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select ten simulation years with varying phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each for 14.5 months. We use analysed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields, obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks, upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most of Northern Hemispheric basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various Northern Hemispheric phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in GCMs.

scholarly journals On the Near-Inertial Resonance of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 2661-2672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Sévellec ◽  
Joël J.-M. Hirschi ◽  
Adam T. Blaker
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Resonance Phenomenon ◽  
Dimensionless Number ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a crucial component of the global climate system. It is responsible for around a quarter of the global northward heat transport and contributes to the mild European climate. Observations and numerical models suggest a wide range of AMOC variability. Recent results from an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) in a high-resolution configuration (¼°) suggest the existence of superinertial variability of the AMOC. In this study, the validity of this result in a theoretical framework is tested. At a low Rossby number and in the presence of Rayleigh friction, it is demonstrated that, unlike a typical forced damped oscillator (which shows subinertial resonance), the AMOC undergoes both super- and subinertial resonances (except at low latitudes and for high friction). A dimensionless number Sr, measuring the ratio of ageo- to geostrophic forcing (i.e., the zonal versus meridional pressure gradients), indicates which of these resonances dominates. If Sr ≪ 1, the AMOC variability is mainly driven by geostrophic forcing and shows subinertial resonance. Alternatively and consistent with the recently published ¼° OGCM experiments, if Sr ≫ 1, the AMOC variability is mainly driven by the ageostrophic forcing and shows superinertial resonance. In both regimes, a forcing of ±1 K induces an AMOC variability of ±10 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) through these near-inertial resonance phenomena. It is also shown that, as expected from numerical simulations, the spatial structure of the near-inertial AMOC variability corresponds to equatorward-propagating waves equivalent to baroclinic Poincaré waves. The long-time average of this resonance phenomenon, raising and depressing the pycnocline, could contribute to the mixing of the ocean stratification.

scholarly journals Improvement of the Simulation of Cloud Longwave Scattering in Broadband Radiative Transfer Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (7) ◽  
pp. 2217-2233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanglin Tang ◽  
Ping Yang ◽  
George W. Kattawar ◽  
Xianglei Huang ◽  
Eli J. Mlawer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Transfer ◽  
Multiple Scattering ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Radiative Transfer Model ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Discrete Ordinate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scaling Methods ◽  
Computational Errors

Abstract Cloud longwave scattering is generally neglected in general circulation models (GCMs), but it plays a significant and highly uncertain role in the atmospheric energy budget as demonstrated in recent studies. To reduce the errors caused by neglecting cloud longwave scattering, two new radiance adjustment methods are developed that retain the computational efficiency of broadband radiative transfer simulations. In particular, two existing scaling methods and the two new adjustment methods are implemented in the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM). The results are then compared with those based on the Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer model (DISORT) that explicitly accounts for multiple scattering by clouds. The two scaling methods are shown to improve the accuracy of radiative transfer simulations for optically thin clouds but not effectively for optically thick clouds. However, the adjustment methods reduce computational errors over a wide range, from optically thin to thick clouds. With the adjustment methods, the errors resulting from neglecting cloud longwave scattering are reduced to less than 2 W m−2 for the upward irradiance at the top of the atmosphere and less than 0.5 W m−2 for the surface downward irradiance. The adjustment schemes prove to be more accurate and efficient than a four-stream approximation that explicitly accounts for multiple scattering. The neglect of cloud longwave scattering results in an underestimate of the surface downward irradiance (cooling effect), but the errors are almost eliminated by the adjustment methods (warming effect).

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