Mortality risk assessment for earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain under different scenarios: A case study in Wenchuan, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Han ◽  
Yunhe Yin ◽  
Shaohong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Risks ◽  
Disaster Chain ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Debris Flow Disaster ◽  
Landslide Debris

<p>Earthquake-geological disaster chain is one of the common forms of multi-disasters. Primary disaster and secondary disaster are cascaded, which often leads to the expansion of disaster losses. Since the ms8.0 earthquake in 2008, Wenchuan has continued to have landslides and debris flow disasters, which leads to the possibility of forming an earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain, and the risk of population mortality. This study analyzes the key links in the formation of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain in Wenchuan. Then according to the disaster chain assessment method, considering the impact of key factors in the disaster cascade effect, a factor model for the disaster chain is established. And mortality risks of the regional disaster chain under earthquake and heavy rainfall scenarios are quantified. The mortality risks of the earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain  are 2.82 people/km<sup>2</sup>, 2.90 people/km<sup>2</sup>, 2.92 people/km<sup>2</sup>, and 2.95 people/km<sup>2</sup> with the precipitation probability of 20%, 5%, 2% and 1% . The risk for earthquake accounts for 50.98%~51.54%, the landslide accounts for 33.90%~34.28%, and the debris flow accounts for 14.19~15.12% in Wenchuan. At the township level, the total mortality risks of Yinxing, Yingxiu, and Gengda are at a relatively high level in this region. These results could provide a basis for further investigating and quantifying the risk reduction measurements of earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain based on which effective disaster prevention and control measures can be undertaken.</p>

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Population Loss Posed by Earthquake-Landslide-Debris Flow Disaster Chain: A Case Study in Wenchuan, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 363
Author(s):  
Xiang Han ◽  
Yunhe Yin ◽  
Yuming Wu ◽  
Shaohong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Earthquake Intensity ◽  
Population Loss ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Disaster Chain ◽  
Debris Flow Disaster ◽  
Landslide Debris

Earthquakes often cause secondary disasters in mountainous areas, forming the typical earthquake-landslide-debris flow disaster chain for a long time that results in a series of losses. It is important to improve the risk assessment method from the perspective of cascading effect of such a disaster chain, by strengthening quantitative research on hazards of the debris flows which are affected by landslide volume and rainstorm intensity. Taking Wenchuan County as an example, the risk assessment method for population loss of the disaster chain is established and the risks are evaluated in this paper. The results show that the population loss risk is 2.59–2.71 people/km2 under the scenarios of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and four rainstorm intensities. The impacts of landslide and debris flow after the earthquake were long-term and profound. A comparison of risks caused by each element of the chain revealed that the risk associated with the earthquake accounted for the highest proportion, and landslide and debris flow accounted for 38.82–37.18% and 3.42–7.50%, respectively. As the earthquake intensity increases, the total risk posed by the disaster chain increases significantly. The risk caused by the earthquake is the highest in high earthquake intensity zones; while in the lower-intensity zones, landslides and debris flows pose relatively high risks. The risk assessment results were verified through comparison with actual data, indicating that the simulation results are quite consistent with the existing disaster information and that the risk assessment method based on the earthquake-landslide-debris flow cascade process is significant for future risk estimation.

An Approach to the Forecasting of Debris Flow Hazard by Storms from Large Waste-Dump at Open Pit Mines

2014 ◽  
Vol 1065-1069 ◽  
pp. 2337-2341
Author(s):  
Xiao Fei Jing ◽  
Ke Hui Liu ◽  
Zhi Yong Cai ◽  
Xiao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Flow Control ◽  
Open Pit ◽  
Waste Dump ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Open Pit Mines ◽  
Flow Motion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Debris Flow Hazard ◽  
Debris Flow Disaster

In order to explore the impact of debris flow in large waste-dump which under the situation of rainstorm could cause disasters to the downstream region of the life and property; the research project has chosen a large waste-dump as the engineering background in Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan. According to the theory of the debris flow motion, we have made a deep analysis about the possibilities that waste-dump could cause debris flow disaster under the different frequency of rainstorm; and carried on the forecast analysis about the scope and degree of the calamity in the downstream which caused by the debris flow. The results can provide a reference for debris flow control in the lower reaches.

Application of Gustav in Entertainment Places Fire Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 668-669 ◽  
pp. 1413-1416
Author(s):  
Yun Tao Zhao ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Full Life Cycle ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Entertainment places have special structure; large fire load, personnel-intensive features, and function layout often change in the process of operation, so the fire risk level will change frequently. The current fire risk assessment studies for only one stage in entertainment places without considering the impact of risk factors at different stages. For this situation, this paper presents a fire risk assessment method in entertainment places based on full life cycle, divides the entertainment places into different stages, analyzes risk factors at different stages, and then uses the method of Gustav to get the fire risk levels of different stages. The assessment results show that the level of fire risk in entertainment places are different at different stages, you can take the appropriate risk control measures against fire risk factors at different stages, which has important guiding significance for fire risk management in entertainment places.

scholarly journals Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
James A. Scott ◽  
Daniel J. Laydon ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
Axel Gandy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Counterfactual Approach

AbstractThe UK and Sweden have among the worst per-capita COVID-19 mortality in Europe. Sweden stands out for its greater reliance on voluntary, rather than mandatory, control measures. We explore how the timing and effectiveness of control measures in the UK, Sweden and Denmark shaped COVID-19 mortality in each country, using a counterfactual assessment: what would the impact have been, had each country adopted the others’ policies? Using a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model without prior assumptions on the mechanism or effectiveness of interventions, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number for the UK, Sweden and Denmark from daily mortality data. We use two approaches to evaluate counterfactuals which transpose the transmission profile from one country onto another, in each country’s first wave from 13th March (when stringent interventions began) until 1st July 2020. UK mortality would have approximately doubled had Swedish policy been adopted, while Swedish mortality would have more than halved had Sweden adopted UK or Danish strategies. Danish policies were most effective, although differences between the UK and Denmark were significant for one counterfactual approach only. Our analysis shows that small changes in the timing or effectiveness of interventions have disproportionately large effects on total mortality within a rapidly growing epidemic.

The methodological approach for the determination of the pressure of artificial raindrops as a question of the theory of splash soil erosion

2020 ◽  
pp. 24-28
Author(s):  
Mihail Zver'kov
Keyword(s):  
Block Diagram ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Effective Pressure ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Splash Erosion ◽  
Rain Drops ◽  
Artificial Rain ◽  
The Impact

To the article the results of the theoretical and experimental researches are given on questions of estimates of the dynamic rate effect of raindrop impact on soil. The aim of this work was to analyze the current methods to determine the rate of artificial rain pressure on the soil for the assessment of splash erosion. There are the developed author’s method for calculation the pressure of artificial rain on the soil and the assessment of splash erosion. The study aims to the justification of evaluation methods and the obtaining of quantitative characteristics, prevention and elimination of accelerated (anthropogenic) erosion, the creation and the realization of the required erosion control measures. The paper considers the question of determining the pressure of artificial rain on the soil. At the moment of raindrops impact, there is the tension in the soil, which is called vertical effective pressure. It is noted that the impact of rain drops in the soil there are stresses called vertical effective pressure. The equation for calculation of vertical effective pressure is proposed in this study using the known spectrum of raindrops. Effective pressure was 1.4 Pa for the artificial rain by sprinkler machine «Fregat» and 5.9 Pa for long distance sprinkler DD-30. The article deals with a block diagram of the sequence for determining the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. This diagram was created by the author’s method of calculation of the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. The need for an integrated approach to the description of the artificial rain impact on the soil is noted. Various parameters characterizing drop erosion are considered. There are data about the mass of splashed soil in the irrigation of various irrigation machinery and installations. For example, the rate (mass) of splashed soil was 0.28…0.78 t/ha under irrigation sprinkler apparatus RACO 4260–55/701C in the conditions of the Ryazan region. The method allows examining the environmental impact of sprinkler techniques for analyzes of the pressure, caused by raindrops, on the soil. It can also be useful in determining the irrigation rate before the runoff for different types of sprinkler equipment and soil conditions.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

LEARNING TO ROLL WITH THE ONE-TWO PUNCH OF FIRE AND DEBRIS FLOW: LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE JANUARY 2018 DEBRIS-FLOW DISASTER IN MONTECITO, CA

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason W. Kean ◽  
◽  
Dennis M. Staley ◽  
Jeremy T. Lancaster ◽  
Francis K. Rengers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The One ◽  
Debris Flow Disaster

scholarly journals Efficiency Improvement of Miniaturized Heat Exchangers

Fluids ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Iris Gerken ◽  
Thomas Wetzel ◽  
Jürgen J. Brandner
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Heat Transfer Enhancement ◽  
Heat Exchangers ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Flow Path ◽  
Transfer Enhancement ◽  
Pressure Losses ◽  
Pin Fin ◽  
Additional Pressure ◽  
The Impact

Micro heat exchangers have been revealed to be efficient devices for improved heat transfer due to short heat transfer distances and increased surface-to-volume ratios. Further augmentation of the heat transfer behaviour within microstructured devices can be achieved with heat transfer enhancement techniques, and more precisely for this study, with passive enhancement techniques. Pin fin geometries influence the flow path and, therefore, were chosen as the option for further improvement of the heat transfer performance. The augmentation of heat transfer with micro heat exchangers was performed with the consideration of an improved heat transfer behaviour, and with additional pressure losses due to the change of flow path (pin fin geometries). To capture the impact of the heat transfer, as well as the impact of additional pressure losses, an assessment method should be considered. The overall exergy loss method can be applied to micro heat exchangers, and serves as a simple assessment for characterization. Experimental investigations with micro heat exchanger structures were performed to evaluate the assessment method and its importance. The heat transfer enhancement was experimentally investigated with microstructured pin fin geometries to understand the impact on pressure loss behaviour with air.

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