Recurrent Rossby wave packets and persistent extreme weather

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mubashshir Ali ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Matthias Röthlisberger
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Wet Spells

<p>Upper-level synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets are well-known to affect surface weather. When these Rossby wave packets occur repeatedly in the same phase at a specific location, they can result in persistent hot, cold, dry, and wet conditions. The repeated and in-phase occurrence of Rossby wave packets is termed as recurrent synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets (RRWPs). RRWPs result from multiple transient synoptic-scale wave packets amplifying in the same geographical region over several weeks.</p><p>Our climatological analyses using reanalysis data have shown that RRWPs can significantly modulate the persistence of hot, cold, dry, and wet spells in several regions in the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere.  RRWPs can both shorten or extend hot, cold, and dry spell durations. The spatial patterns of statistically significant links between RRWPs and spell durations are distinct for the type of the spell (hot, cold, dry, or wet) and the season (MJJASO or NDJFMA). In the Northern Hemisphere, the spatial patterns where RRWPs either extend or shorten the spell durations are wave-like. In the Southern Hemisphere, the spatial patterns are either wave-like (hot and cold spells) or latitudinally banded (dry and wet spells).</p><p>Furthermore, we explore the atmospheric drivers behind RRWP events. This includes both the background flow and potential wave-triggers such as the Madden Julian Oscillation or blocking. For 100 events of intense Rossby wave recurrence in the Atlantic, the background flow, the intensity of tropical convection, and the occurrence of blocking are studied using flow composites.</p>

Are Recurrent Rossby wave packets linked to persistent extreme weather events in the Southern Hemisphere?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Mubashshir Ali ◽  
Olivia Martius ◽  
Matthias Röthlisberger
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Spatial And Seasonal Variation ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Surface Weather ◽  
Winter Cold ◽  
Hot Spells

<p>Synoptic-scale Rossby wave-packets have a recurrent pattern during several episodes of persistent surface weather which is termed as 'recurrent Rossby wave-packets' (RRWP). They result in a statistically significant increase in winter cold and summer hot spells over large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.</p><p>We present a global climatology of the RRWPs to study its spatial and seasonal variation. We also investigate the link of RRWPs to persistent surface extremes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH).  We find that RRWPs result in a statistically significant increase in winter cold and summer hot spells over broad areas in Australia and South America. Furthermore, we discuss the effects of climatological oscillations (Madden Julian Oscillation, ENSO, etc) on influencing the RRWPs.</p>

ENSO and SAM influence on the generation of long episodes of Rossby Wave Packets during Southern Hemisphere Summer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iago Perez ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Cristina Masoller
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Time Duration

<p>Rossby Wave Packets (RWPs) are key to the improvement of  long-range forecasting and for the prediction of sub-seasonal extremes. Several studies have focused on their properties, such as time duration, trajectory, areas of detection and dissipation as well as interannual variability in the northern hemisphere, but only a few of them have focused in the southern hemisphere. Here we study the influence of low-frequency climate modes on RWPs during southern hemisphere summer using NCEP DOE 2 Reanalysis data. Focusing on long-lived RWPs, which we define as RWPs with a lifespan above 8 days,  we determine how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) modify their frequency of occurrence and their main areas of detection and dissipation. We found that during El Niño and negative SAM years, the number of long-lived RWPs is maximum. In addition, years with the highest amount of long-lived RWPs show a zonally symmetric and narrow upper level jet that is shifted northward from its climatological position. On the other hand, when the jet is shifted southward, particularly in the southeastern Pacific, during positive SAM phases, only a small number of long-lived RWPs is detected. Therefore, negative SAM conditions provide a background mean flow that favours the occurrence of long-lived RWPs while positive SAM conditions have the opposite effect. The dependence on ENSO phase is not as symmetric: while El Niño sets atmospheric conditions that favour the formation of long-lived RWPs, La Niña years present high interannual variability in the frequency of occurrence. Furthermore, in El Niño events the main formation area is between 61-120ºE and the main dissipation area between 300-359ºE. During La Niña events, the main formation area is located by 241-300ºE and no main dissipation area is identified. In the case of positive SAM two main formation areas appear at 61-120ºE and 241-300ºE and two main dissipation areas within 121-180 and 301-359ºE. Lastly in the case of negative SAM one main formation area at 241-300ºE is detected and no main dissipation area is detected. The robustness of the results was tested repeating the analysis using data from the ERA5 Reanalysis and supports the finding that the maximum number of long-lived RWPs occur during negative SAM and El Niño years</p>

scholarly journals Structure and Mechanisms of the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 2115-2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takafumi Miyasaka ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The three-dimensional structure and dynamics of the climatological-mean summertime subtropical anticyclones in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) are investigated. As in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), each of the surface subtropical anticyclones over the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Oceans is accompanied by a meridional vorticity dipole aloft, exhibiting barotropic and baroclinic structures in its poleward and equatorward portions, respectively, in a manner that is dynamically consistent with the observed midtropospheric subsidence. Their dynamics are also similar to their NH counterpart. It is demonstrated through the numerical experiments presented here that each of the SH surface anticyclones observed over the relatively cool eastern oceans can be reproduced as a response to a local near-surface cooling–heating couplet. The cooling is mainly due to radiative cooling associated with low-level maritime clouds, and the heating to the east is due to sensible heat flux over the dry, heated continental surface. The low-level clouds act to maintain the coolness of the underlying ocean surface, which is also maintained by the alongshore surface southerlies. As in the NH, the presence of a local atmosphere–ocean–land feedback loop is thus suggested, in which the summertime subtropical anticyclones and continental cyclones to their east are involved. Both the model experiments conducted here and the diagnosed upward flux of Rossby wave activity suggest that, in addition to continental deep convective heating, the land–sea heating–cooling contrasts across the west coasts of the three continents can contribute to the formation of the summertime upper-level planetary wave pattern observed in the entire subtropical SH, characterized by the zonal wavenumber-3 component. Though rather subtle, there are some interhemispheric differences in the summertime subtropical anticyclones, including their smaller magnitudes in the SH and the stronger equatorward propagation of upper-level Rossby wave activity emanating from the SH surface anticyclones.

scholarly journals A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andries Jan De Vries
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The World ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) frequently cause flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts in many parts of the world. Previous studies considered two synoptic-scale processes, Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport, typically in isolation, and their linkage to such EPEs in several regions. This study presents for the first time a global and systematic climatological analysis of these two synoptic-scale processes, in tandem and in isolation, for the occurrence of EPEs. To this end, we use 40-year ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979-2018) and apply object-based identification methods for (i) daily EPEs, (ii) stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, and (iii) structures of high vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT). First, the importance of these two synoptic-scale processes is demonstrated by case studies of previously documented flood events that inflicted catastrophic impacts in different parts of the world. Next, a climatological quantification shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with > 90 % of EPEs near high topography and over the Mediterranean, whereas intense moisture transport is linked to > 95 % of EPEs over many coastal zones, consistent with findings of atmospheric river-related studies. Combined Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport contributes up to 70 % of EPEs in several subtropical and extratropical regions, including (semi)arid desert regions where tropical-extratropical interactions are of key importance for (heavy) rainfall. A detailed analysis shows that five categories with different combinations of wave breaking and intense moisture transport can reflect a large range of EPE-related weather systems across various climate zones. Odds ratios of EPEs linked to the two synoptic-scale processes suggest that intense moisture transport is stronger associated with the occurrence of EPEs than wave breaking. Furthermore, the relationship between the PV and IVT characteristics and the precipitation volumes shows that the depth of the wave breaking and moisture transport intensity are intimately connected with the extreme precipitation severity. Finally, composites reveal that subtropical and extratropical EPEs, linked to Rossby wave breaking, go along with the formation of upper-level troughs and cyclogenetic processes near the surface downstream, reduced static stability beneath the upper-level forcing (only over water), and dynamical lifting ahead (over water and land). This study concludes with a concept that reconciles well-established meteorological principles with the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events. The findings of this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to EPEs, and may find application in climatic studies on extreme precipitation changes in a warming climate.</p>

scholarly journals A global climatological perspective on the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andries Jan De Vries
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
High Topography ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) cause frequently flooding with dramatic socioeconomic impacts in many parts of the world. Previous studies considered two synoptic-scale processes, Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport, typically in isolation, and their linkage to such EPEs in several regions. This study presents for the first time a global and systematic climatological analysis of these two synoptic-scale processes, in tandem and in isolation, for the occurrence of EPEs. To this end, we use 40-year ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1979–2018) and apply object-based identification methods for (i) daily EPEs, (ii) stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers as indicators of Rossby wave breaking, and (iii) structures of high vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT). First, the importance of these two processes is demonstrated by case studies of previously documented flood events that inflicted catastrophic impacts in different parts of the world. Next, a climatological quantification shows that Rossby wave breaking is associated with > 90 % of EPEs near high topography and over the Mediterranean, intense moisture transport is linked to > 90 % of EPEs over many coastal zones, and their combined occurrence contributes to > 70 % of EPEs in several subtropical and extratropical regions. A more detailed analysis shows that a majority of EPEs associated with (1) only Rossby wave breaking are confined to higher-latitude regions that are deprived from remote moisture supplies by high topography and deserts, (2) only intense moisture transport are found circumglobally at the outer tropics, associated with tropical cyclones, tropical easterly waves, and monsoon lows, (3) combined Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport dominate a large part of the globe, in particular over dry subtropical regions where tropical-extratropical interactions are of key relevance, (4) remote, far upstream Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport occur over mountainous extratropical west coasts, reminiscent of landfalling atmospheric rivers, and (5) neither of the two synoptic-scale processes are concentrated over the inner tropics and high topography at lower latitudes, where EPEs arise under the influence of local forcing. Accordingly, different combinations of wave breaking and intense moisture transport can reflect a large range of weather systems with relevance to EPEs across various climate zones. Furthermore, the relationship between the PV and IVT characteristics and the precipitation volumes shows that the strength of the wave breaking and moisture transport intensity are intimately connected with the extreme precipitation severity. Finally, composites reveal that subtropical and extratropical EPEs, linked to Rossby wave breaking, go along with the formation of upper-level troughs and cyclogenetic processes near the surface downstream, reduced static stability beneath the upper-level forcing (only over water), and dynamical lifting ahead (over water and land). This study concludes with a concept that reconciles well-established meteorological principles with the importance of Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport for extreme precipitation events. The findings of this study may contribute to an improved understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to EPEs, and may find application in climatic studies on extreme precipitation changes in a warming climate.

scholarly journals Synoptic-scale drivers of the Mistral wind: link to Rossby wave life cycles and seasonal variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonatan Givon ◽  
Douglas Keller Jr. ◽  
Romain Pennel ◽  
Philippe Drobinski ◽  
Shira Raveh-Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Lee Cyclogenesis ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract. The mistral is a northerly low level jet blowing through the Rhône valley in southern France, and down to the Gulf of Lions. It is co-located with the cold sector of a low level lee-cyclone in the Gulf of Genoa, behind an upper level trough north of the Alps. The mistral wind has long been associated with extreme weather events in the Mediterranean, and while extensive research focused on the low-tropospheric mistral and lee-cyclogenesis, the different upper-tropospheric large- and synoptic-scale settings involved in producing the mistral wind are not generally known. Here, the isentropic potential vorticity (PV) structures governing the occurrence of the mistral wind are classified using a self-organizing map (SOM) clustering algorithm. Based upon a 36-year (1981–2016) mistral database and daily ERA-Interim isentropic PV data, 16 distinct mistral-associated PV structures emerge. Each classified flow pattern corresponds to a different type or stage of the Rossby wave life-cycle, from broad troughs, thin PV streamers, to distinguished cut-offs. Each of these PV patterns exhibit a distinct surface impact in terms of the surface cyclone, surface turbulent heat fluxes, wind, temperature and precipitation. A clear seasonal separation between the clusters is evident and transitions between the clusters correspond to different Rossby wave-breaking processes. This analysis provides a new perspective on the variability of the mistral, and of the Genoa lee-cyclogenesis in general, linking the upper-level PV structures to their surface impact over Europe, the Mediterranean and north Africa.

scholarly journals A Budget Equation for the Amplitude of Rossby Wave Packets Based on Finite-Amplitude Local Wave Activity

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 277-296
Author(s):  
Paolo Ghinassi ◽  
Marlene Baumgart ◽  
Franziska Teubler ◽  
Michael Riemer ◽  
Volkmar Wirth
Keyword(s):  
Wave Packet ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Wave Packets ◽  
Finite Amplitude ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Phase Dependence ◽  
Local Wave ◽  
Budget Equation ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Recently, the authors proposed a novel diagnostic to quantify the amplitude of Rossby wave packets. This diagnostic extends the local finite-amplitude wave activity (LWA) of N. Nakamura and collaborators to the primitive-equations framework and combines it with a zonal filter to remove the phase dependence. In the present work, this diagnostic is used to investigate the dynamics of upper-tropospheric Rossby wave packets, with a particular focus on distinguishing between conservative dynamics and nonconservative processes. For this purpose, a budget equation for filtered LWA is derived and its utility is tested in a hierarchy of models. Idealized simulations with a barotropic and a dry primitive-equation model confirm the ability of the LWA diagnostic to identify nonconservative local sources or sinks of wave activity. In addition, the LWA budget is applied to forecast data for an episode in which the amplitude of an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave packet was poorly represented. The analysis attributes deficiencies in the Rossby wave packet amplitude to the misrepresentation of diabatic processes and illuminates the importance of the upper-level divergent outflow as a source for the error in the wave packet amplitude.

scholarly journals A Meteorological Analysis of Important Contributors to the 1999–2005 Canadian Prairie Drought

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (10) ◽  
pp. 3593-3609 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. Hryciw ◽  
Eyad H. Atallah ◽  
Shawn M. Milrad ◽  
John R. Gyakum
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Canadian Prairie ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Canadian Prairies ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Meteorological Analysis

Abstract Drought is a complex natural hazard that is endemic to the Canadian prairies. The 1999–2005 Canadian prairie drought, which had great socioeconomic impacts, was meteorologically unique in that it did not conform to the traditional persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and west coast ridging paradigm normally associated with prairie drought. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the unique synoptic-scale mechanisms responsible for modulating subsidence during this drought. Using 30-day running means of the percent of normal precipitation from station data, key severe dry periods during 1999–2005 are identified. Analysis of the mean fields from reanalysis data shows that these dry events can be grouped into three upper-level flow categories: amplified warm, amplified cold, and zonal. Amplified warm cases match the traditional ridging paradigm, while amplified cold and zonal cases elucidate the fact that cold-air advection and downsloping flow, respectively, can also be important subsidence mechanisms during a Canadian prairie drought. In all, the 1999–2005 drought was more meteorologically complex on the synoptic scale than previous historic prairie droughts. Finally, a brief historical perspective shows that the drought was centered in 2001–02 and was not as severe as historical droughts, suggesting that societal vulnerability also played a substantial role in the impacts of the 1999–2005 drought.

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