Radiation and wind projections for Poland based on downscaled EuroCORDEX ensemble
<p>Forecasted trends of solar radiation and wind speed serve as an input for climate risk assessment as well as the estimation of renewable energy potential in the future climate.</p><p>In the frame of the project &#8220;Adaption strategies to Climate Change in Poland&#8221; the projections of solar radiation and the wind speed were developed based on the EURO-CORDEX. The RCM results for an area covering central Europe with a resolution of 0.11 &#176; (approx. 12.5 km) were used. The analyses were carried out for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.</p><p>&#160;</p><p>To represent better the local variability the statistical downscaling was applied based on various historical gridded datasets (ERA5 and IMWM for the wind speed and ERA5, IMWM, and SARAH-II for the shortwave solar radiation). Ensemble analyses were undertaken to assess the projection uncertainty.</p><p>Solar radiation in the future climate shows a slight downward trend. The annual sum of solar radiation at the end of the century will decrease by 12 kWh/m<sup>2</sup> to 40 kWh/m<sup>2</sup>, depending on the scenario. The most significant change will occur in eastern and north-eastern Poland. Forecasts of average wind speed values do not indicate significant changes in the 21st century, although the wind speed distribution showed changes in individual months - an increase in the winter and a decrease in the summer months.</p><p>Results are available via the interactive climate web portal https://klimada2.ios.gov.pl/klimat-scenariusze-portal/.</p>