Flood forecast skill for Early Action: Results and Learnings from the development of the Early-Action Protocol for Floods in Uganda

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Ficchì ◽  
Hannah Cloke ◽  
Linda Speight ◽  
Douglas Mulangwa ◽  
Irene Amuron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
National Level ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Flood Forecast ◽  
Global Team ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Local Risk

<p>Global flood forecasting systems are helpful in complementing local resources and in-country data to support humanitarians and trigger early action before an impactful flood occurs. Freely available global flood forecast information from the European Commission’s Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS, a Copernicus EMS service) is being used by the Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) alongside in-country knowledge to develop appropriate triggers for early actions for flood preparedness, within the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) initiative. To scale up the first FbF pilot to a national level, in 2020 URCS collaborated with several partners including the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC), the Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, through the Directorate of Water Resources Management (DWRM), the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), the 510 Global team and the University of Reading, through the UK-supported project Forecasts for Anticipatory Humanitarian Action (FATHUM). The new Early Action Protocol (EAP) for floods, submitted to the IFRC’s validation committee in September 2020, is now under review.</p><p>One of the aims of an EAP is to set the triggers for early action, based on forecast skill information, alongside providing a local risk analysis, and describing the early actions, operational procedures, and responsibilities. Working alongside our partners and practitioners in Uganda, we developed a methodology to tailor flood forecast skill analysis to EAP development, that could be potentially useful for humanitarians in other Countries and forecasters engaging with them. The key aim of the analysis is to identify skilful lead times and appropriate triggers for early action based on available operational forecasts, considering action parameters, such as an Action Lifetime of 30 days, and focusing on relevant flood thresholds and skill scores. We analysed the skill of probabilistic flood forecasts from the operational GloFAS (v2.1) system across Uganda against river flow observations and reanalysis data. One of the challenges was to combine operational needs with statistical robustness requirements, using relevant flood thresholds for action. Here we present the results from the analysis carried out for Uganda and the verification workflow, that we plan to make openly available to all practitioners and scientists working on the implementation of forecast-based actions.</p>

Forecast-based approach for flood in Mali: a prototype of a climate service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheikh Kane ◽  
Bachir Alkali Tanimoun ◽  
N'dji dit Jacques Dembélé ◽  
Abdouramane Gado Djibo ◽  
Mohamed Koité ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Participatory Mapping ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Flow Monitoring ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Sahel Region

<p>The rainfall regime in the Sahel region in West Africa shows a rise in the extreme rainfall occurrence. During the 2020 rainy season, floods and inundations of unprecedented magnitude have struck almost all the Sahelian countries. Despite this new trend, the local disaster management community still reacts on a response mode, based on an annually updated flood contingency plan. In this work we present the process followed to set-up an Early Action Protocol for riverine flood. Novelty and specificity of this climate service and its co-production process lies in the fact that it's not led by the climate national information providers (meteorological and hydrological agencies), but rather proposed by a user, namely Mali Red Cross Society, with the support of its partners across The Red Cross movement. Working groups (WGs) were established to co-produce the following: participatory mapping of past flood extent linked to historical river flows and vulnerability and exposure analysis for different areas, around the 2 major rivers Niger and Senegal and their tributaries; an impact-based trigger model, taking into account, on a 5 year return period basis, the available river flow monitoring historical analysis of river peaks at the main hydrological stations, the expected impact level, the derived exposure map and vulnerability index; coordination and selection of early actions and intervention map, based on priority impacts, people targeting and feasibility of actions was led by MRCS and its Red Cross partners. After reviewing available tools and capacities, the decision was made to prioritize riverine floods around the two main river basins of Niger and Senegal. In absence of suitable hydrological forecasting models, the agreement was to use the weekly monitoring of river flows and levels by the department of hydrology, combined with rainfall forecast from the Met agency. Water levels corresponding to the 5 years return periods were selected with a lead-time for action of 4 days. The civil protection directorate provided historical flood impacts. In addition, for the city of Bamako, the following actions were undertaken: geomorphometric analysis from radar and satellite imagery; participatory mapping of flooded areas and analysis of the drainage network collectors, with a focus on the state of gutter blockage; analysis of the duration of the rising water after the start of the rain and the duration of water stagnation. The work undertaken by the WGs led to critical data production needed to develop the trigger mechanism for extreme stream flows, and associated impacts, for the noted rivers, inter alia: identification of areas and households exposed to risk; determination of the thresholds required per village/commune to trigger the emergency alert; identification of upstream mitigation activities at the household level, identification of potential partners in coverage areas where cooperation and/or complementarity is needed; enhanced monitoring of the announced flood through the scientific tools available on a weekly and daily basis. The output of this work is intended to inform discussions in the region and in other regions related to sustainable and appropriate locally led co-development of anticipatory action mechanisms.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1413-E1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Daniel J. Befort ◽  
Dave MacLeod ◽  
Tim Palmer ◽  
Chris O’Reilly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Forecast Models

Abstract Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centers around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. Hindcasts are usually produced over a period of around 20–30 years. However, recent studies have demonstrated that seasonal forecast skill can undergo pronounced multidecadal variations. These results imply that relatively short hindcasts are not adequate for reliably testing seasonal forecasts and that small hindcast sample sizes can potentially lead to skill estimates that are not robust. Here we present new and unprecedented 110-year-long coupled hindcasts of the next season over the period 1901–2010. Their performance for the recent period is in good agreement with those of operational forecast models. While skill for ENSO is very high during recent decades, it is markedly reduced during the 1930s–1950s. Skill at the beginning of the twentieth century is, however, as high as for recent high-skill periods. Consistent with findings in atmosphere-only hindcasts, a midcentury drop in forecast skill is found for a range of atmospheric fields, including large-scale indices such as the NAO and the PNA patterns. As with ENSO, skill scores for these indices recover in the early twentieth century, suggesting that the midcentury drop in skill is not due to a lack of good observational data. A public dissemination platform for our hindcast data is available, and we invite the scientific community to explore them.

Why is large sample hydrology important in hydrological forecasting? 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilias Pechlivanidis ◽  
Louise Crochemore ◽  
Marc Girons Lopez
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
River Systems ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts ◽  
Seasonal Streamflow

<p>The scientific community has made significant progress towards improving the skill of hydrological forecasts; however, most investigations have normally been conducted at single or in a limited number of catchments. Such an approach is indeed valuable for detailed process investigation and therefore to understand the local conditions that affect forecast skill, but it is limited when it comes to scaling up the underlying hydrometeorological hypotheses. To advance knowledge on the drivers that control the quality and skill of hydrological forecasts, much can be gained by comparative analyses and from the availability of statistically significant samples. Large-scale modelling (at national, continental or global scales) can complement the in-depth knowledge from single catchment modelling by encompassing many river systems that represent a breadth of physiographic and climatic conditions. In addition to large sample sizes which cover a gradient in terms of climatology, scale and hydrological regime, the use of machine learning techniques can contribute to the identification of emerging spatiotemporal patterns leading to forecast skill attribution to different regional physiographic characteristics.</p><p>Here, we draw on two seasonal hydrological forecast skill investigations that were conducted at the national and continental scales, providing results for more than 36,000 basins in Sweden and Europe. Due to the large generated samples, we are capable of demonstrating that the quality of seasonal streamflow forecasts can be clustered and regionalized, based on a priori knowledge of the local hydroclimatic conditions. We show that the quality of seasonal streamflow forecasts is linked to physiographic and hydroclimatic descriptors, and that the relative importance of these descriptors varies with initialization month and lead time. In our samples, hydrological similarity, temperature, precipitation, evaporative index, and precipitation forecast biases are strongly linked to the quality of streamflow forecasts. This way, while seasonal river flow can generally be well predicted in river systems with slow hydrological responses, predictability tends to be poor in cold and semiarid climates in which river systems respond immediately to precipitation signals.</p>

scholarly journals Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 445-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Mittermaier
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Intensity Scale ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Scale Method ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Forecast Lead Time ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Rainfall Estimates

Abstract. A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS) and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used. The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.

scholarly journals Factors that influence the scale up of new interventions in low-income settings: a qualitative case study of the introduction of chlorhexidine cleansing of the umbilical cord in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 440-451
Author(s):  
Jennifer A Callaghan-Koru ◽  
Munia Islam ◽  
Marufa Khan ◽  
Ardy Sowe ◽  
Jahrul Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Umbilical Cord ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Qualitative Case Study ◽  
National Level ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
New Drugs ◽  
Low Income Countries

Abstract There is a well-recognized need for empirical study of processes and factors that influence scale up of evidence-based interventions in low-income countries to address the ‘know-do’ gap. We undertook a qualitative case study of the scale up of chlorhexidine cleansing of the umbilical cord (CHX) in Bangladesh to identify and compare facilitators and barriers for the institutionalization and expansion stages of scale up. Data collection and analysis for this case study were informed by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and the WHO/ExpandNet model of scale up. At the national level, we interviewed 20 stakeholders involved in CHX policy or implementation. At the district level, we conducted interviews with 31 facility-based healthcare providers in five districts and focus group discussions (FGDs) with eight community-based providers and eight programme managers. At the community level, we conducted 7 FGDs with 53 mothers who had a baby within the past year. Expanded interview notes were thematically coded and analysed following an adapted Framework approach. National stakeholders identified external policy and incentives, and the engagement of stakeholders in policy development through the National Technical Working Committee for Newborn Health, as key facilitators for policy and health systems changes. Stakeholders, providers and families perceived the intervention to be simple, safe and effective, and more consistent with family preferences than the prior policy of dry cord care. The major barriers that delayed or decreased the public health impact of the scale up of CHX in Bangladesh’s public health system related to commodity production, procurement and distribution. Bangladesh’s experience scaling up CHX suggests that scale up should involve early needs assessments and planning for institutionalizing new drugs and commodities into the supply chain. While the five CFIR domains were useful for categorizing barriers and facilitators, additional constructs are needed for common health systems barriers in low-income settings.

scholarly journals Impact of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on Weeks 3 and 4 Forecast Skill in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (6) ◽  
pp. 2159-2174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuejian Zhu ◽  
Xiaqiong Zhou ◽  
Malaquias Peña ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Christopher Melhauser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) is being extended from 16 to 35 days to cover the subseasonal period, bridging weather and seasonal forecasts. In this study, the impact of SST forcing on the extended-range land-only global 2-m temperature, continental United States (CONUS) accumulated precipitation, and MJO skill are explored with version 11 of the GEFS (GEFSv11) under various SST forcing configurations. The configurations consist of 1) the operational GEFS 90-day e-folding time of the observed real-time global SST (RTG-SST) anomaly relaxed to climatology, 2) an optimal AMIP configuration using the observed daily RTG-SST analysis, 3) a two-tier approach using the CFSv2-predicted daily SST, and 4) a two-tier approach using bias-corrected CFSv2-predicted SST, updated every 24 h. The experimental period covers the fall of 2013 and the winter of 2013/14. The results indicate that there are small differences in the ranked probability skill scores (RPSSs) between the various SST forcing experiments. The improvements in forecast skill of the Northern Hemisphere 2-m temperature and precipitation for weeks 3 and 4 are marginal, especially for North America. The bias-corrected CFSv2-predicted SST experiment generally delivers superior performance with statistically significant improvement in spatially and temporally aggregated 2-m temperature RPSSs over North America. Improved representation of the SST forcing (AMIP) increased the forecast skill for MJO indices up through week 2, but there is no significant improvement of the MJO forecast skill for weeks 3 and 4. These results are obtained over a short period with weak MJO activity and are also subject to internal model weaknesses in representing the MJO. Additional studies covering longer periods with upgraded model physics are warranted.

On the development and operationalization of an impact-based forecasting system to support early action for river floods in Zambia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefania Giodini ◽  
Aklilu Teklesadik ◽  
Jannis Visser ◽  
Orla Canavan ◽  
Innocent Bwalya ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Emergency Operation ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
The Impact

<div>Flooding in Zambia occurs on almost an annual basis greatly affecting the livelihoods of communities. Early action is crucial to mitigate the impact of flooding but needs to be guided by an early warning that is credible and actionable, linked to situational awareness based on data.  The 510 data team at the Netherlands Red Cross has been working together with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Zambia Red Cross Society, Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) and Zambia Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) to develop a data driven early warning system to support impact based early action implementation. The system has been co-designed with the relevant local stakeholders and  integrates a hydrological model with a vulnerability capacity assessment based on secondary data for the whole country at the highest level of possible granularity (district level). A threshold based trigger model has been developed together with local decision makers to activate the system with a lead time up to 7 days. The system is being integrated in the Emergency Operation Centre operated by Zambia's DMMU as a part of the country standard early action protocol. This paper describes the system design, results from the first activations and lessons learned. </div>

Zambia leader struggles with reforms and credibility

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Areas

Significance It will enter negotiations at a time when the PF is becoming increasingly repressive. Earlier this week, the authorities arrested former opposition presidential candidate Hakainde Hichilema for sedition and unlawful assembly. Impacts Tolerance of partisan violence during the campaign could have set a precedent, portending further clashes. Urban protests tend to be localised and relatively short-lived, and are unlikely to scale up to the national level. Lungu will try to leverage Mutati's appointment to attract what remains of the MMD's support base. High and rising unemployment, especially in mining areas, will continue to be a source of popular grievance.

scholarly journals Implementation of the new WHO recommendations on HIV and infant feeding: Challenges and the way forward

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (52) ◽  
pp. 6274-6290
Author(s):  
C Sagoe-Moses ◽  
◽  
K Mwinga ◽  
P Habimana ◽  
ID Toure ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infant Feeding ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
National Level ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
World Health ◽  
Child Health Services ◽  
Feeding Practice ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Hiv Exposed ◽  
The Way

Breast milk provides all the nutrient needs of the infant especially in the first six months of life and also protects the growing infant from pneumonia, diarrhoea, and malnutrition, which are the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the African Region. However breastfeeding is also known to transmit the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) from mother to the child. Several guidelines have been developed to guide policy makers, health workers and mothers on the most appropriate methods to feed HIV exposed infants. Previous HIV and infant feeding guidelines emphasized on preventing infants from becoming infected with HIV by counseling HIV-infected mothers to avoid all breastfeeding. Over the period, programme implementers and researchers have reported difficulties in implementing earlier recommendations and guidelines on HIV and infant feeding within health-care systems. New evidence now shows that giving Anti-Retroviral therapy (ARVs) to either the HIV-infected mother or HIV-exposed infant can significantly reduce the risk of transmitting HIV through breastfeeding. Thus, in 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) issued the latest guidelines on HIV and infant feeding entitled Principles and recommendations for infant feeding in the context of HIV and a summary of evidence. The 2010 WHO guidelines have changed the recommendations on how HIV infected mothers should feed their infants, and how health workers should support them. National authorities in each country can decide which infant feeding practice will be primarily promoted and supported by Maternal and Child Health services, i.e. breastfeeding with an antiretroviral intervention to reduce transmission or avoidance of all breastfeeding. Previous guidelines and recommendations on infant feeding in the context of HIV have undergone frequent changes over the past decade. The adaptation and implementation of previous and current guidelines at national level have met challenges. These include lack of consensus among key stakeholders, inadequate funding for the additional cost of providing ARVs to the mother or the child and difficulties in communicating the recommendations in the new guidelines clearly to mothers, health workers and policy makers. To address these challenges a number of proposals have been suggested such as coordinated consensus building process, costing of interventions and a phased implementation approach to ensure successful scale up over time. This paper describes the process of adapting global HIV and infant feeding recommendations and guidelines at national level. It also reviews the challenges encountered in implementation and proposes the way forward in addressing them.

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