scholarly journals Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: An analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Carmo-Costa ◽  
Roberto Bilbao ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Ana Teles-Machado ◽  
Emanuel Dutra
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Regional Warming ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>As the global climate is warming, with important regional differences, there is a growing need to (i) better understand whether and how internal variability controls the regional warming trends, and (ii) to identify the regions in which both the trends and the superimposed interannual variability are predictable. In this study we investigate trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content in the North Atlantic basin. This region is a source of decadal variability, in which internal ocean processes can locally modulate the global warming trends and add additional prediction skill. The analysis is focused on the period 1970-2014, and combines the study of an ensemble of ocean reanalyses, with two sets of CMIP6 experiments performed with the Earth system model EC-Earth3: (i) a 10-member historical ensemble; and (ii) an initialized 10-member retrospective decadal prediction system. External forcings are found to be important for the development of the regional trends, but on their own are unable to reproduce the exact geographical pattern. Our results also show that not all regions in the North Atlantic are equally predictable, which is explained by different contributions of the forcings and internal climate variability. While high levels of predictive skill in regions like the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic, or the Irminger and Iceland Seas are clearly enabled by initialization, with a negligible influence of the external forcings, skill in others areas like the Subtropical North Atlantic, or the Gulf Stream extension mostly comes from the externally forced trends. The Labrador Sea is a particular case where predictive skill has both an external and internal origin. Large observational and modeling uncertainties affect the Central Subpolar North Atlantic, the only region exhibiting a cooling during the study period, uncertainties that might explain its very poor predictive skill. <em>We</em><em><span> would like to acknowledge the financial support from FCT through projects </span></em><em><span>FCT-UIDB/50019/2020</span></em><em><span> and PD/BD/142785/2018.</span></em></p>

Trends, Variability and Predictive Skill of the Ocean Heat Content in North Atlantic: An Analysis with the EC-Earth3 Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Carmo-Costa ◽  
Roberto Bilbao ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Ana Teles-Machado ◽  
Emanuel Dutra
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties

Abstract This study investigates trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Atlantic basin. This is a region where strong decadal variability superimposes the externally forced trends, introducing important differences in the local warming rates, and leading in the case of the Central Subpolar North Atlantic to an overall long-term cooling. Our analysis aims to better understand these regional differences, by investigating how internal and forced variability contribute to local trends, exploring also their role on the local prediction skill. The analysis combines the study of three ocean reanalyses to document the uncertainties related to observations, with two sets of CMIP6 experiments performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth3: a historical ensemble to characterise the forced signals; and a retrospective decadal prediction system, to additionally characterise the contributions from internal climate variability. Our results show that internal variability is essential to understand the spatial pattern of North Atlantic OHC trends, contributing decisively to the local trends and providing high levels of predictive skill in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic and the Irminger and Iceland Seas, and to a lesser extent in the Labrador Sea. Skill and trends in other areas like the Subtropical North Atlantic, or the Gulf Stream Extension are mostly externally forced. Large observational and modeling uncertainties affect the trends and interannual variability in the Central Subpolar North Atlantic, the only region exhibiting a cooling during the study period, uncertainties that might explain the very poor local predictive skill.

scholarly journals Trends, variability and predictive skill of the ocean heat content in North Atlantic: an analysis with the EC-Earth3 model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Carmo-Costa ◽  
Roberto Bilbao ◽  
Pablo Ortega ◽  
Ana Teles-Machado ◽  
Emanuel Dutra
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties

AbstractThis study investigates linear trends, variability and predictive skill of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Atlantic basin. This is a region where strong decadal variability superimposes the externally forced trends, introducing important differences in the local warming rates and leading in the case of the Central Subpolar North Atlantic to an overall long-term cooling. Our analysis aims to better understand these regional differences, by investigating how internal and forced variability contribute to local trends, exploring also their role on the local prediction skill. The analysis combines the study of three ocean reanalyses to document the uncertainties related to observations with two sets of CMIP6 experiments performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth3: a historical ensemble to characterise the forced signals, and a retrospective decadal prediction system to additionally characterise the contributions from internal climate variability. Our results show that internal variability is essential to understand the spatial pattern of North Atlantic OHC trends, contributing decisively to the local trends and providing high levels of predictive skill in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic and the Irminger and Iceland Seas, and to a lesser extent in the Labrador Sea. Skill and trends in other areas like the Subtropical North Atlantic, or the Gulf Stream Extension are mostly externally forced. Large observational and modeling uncertainties affect the trends and interannual variability in the Central Subpolar North Atlantic, the only region exhibiting a cooling during the study period, uncertainties that might explain the very poor local predictive skill.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Influence of the North Atlantic Ocean Variability on the Atlantic Meridional Mode on Decadal Time Scales

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Sandro F. Veiga ◽  
Emanuel Giarolla ◽  
Paulo Nobre ◽  
Carlos A. Nobre
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Ocean Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Important features of the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) are not fully understood. We still do not know what determines its dominant decadal variability or the complex physical processes that sustain it. Using reanalysis datasets, we investigated the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the dominant decadal periodicity that characterizes the AMM. Statistical analyses demonstrated that the correlation between the sea surface temperature decadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean and the AMM time series characterizes the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). This corroborates previous studies that demonstrated that the AMO precedes the AMM. A causal inference with a newly developed rigorous and quantitative causality analysis indicates that the AMO causes the AMM. To further understand the influence of the subsurface ocean on the AMM, the relationship between the ocean heat content (0–300 m) decadal variability and AMM was analyzed. The results show that although there is a significant zero-lag correlation between the ocean heat content in some regions of the North Atlantic (south of Greenland and in the eastern part of the North Atlantic) and the AMM, their cause-effect relationship on decadal time scales is unlikely. By correlating the AMO with the ocean heat content (0–300 m) decadal variability, the former precedes the latter; however, the causality analysis shows that the ocean heat content variability drives the AMO, corroborating several studies that point out the dominant role of the ocean heat transport convergence on AMO.

scholarly journals The mean state and variability of the North Atlantic circulation: a perspective from ocean reanalyses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Jackson ◽  
Clotilde Dubois ◽  
Gael Forget ◽  
Keith Haines ◽  
Matt Harrison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
The North ◽  
Ocean Reanalyses ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Mean State

<p>The observational network around the North Atlantic has improved significantly over the last few decades with the advent of Argo and satellite observations, and the more recent efforts to monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using arrays such as RAPID and OSNAP. These have shown decadal timescale changes across the North Atlantic including in heat content, heat transport and the circulation. </p><p>However there are still significant gaps in the observational coverage, and significant uncertainties around some observational products. Ocean reanalyses integrate the observations with a dynamically consistent ocean model and are potentially tools that can be used to understand the observed changes. However the suitability of the reanalyses for the task must also be assessed.<br>We use an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses in comparison with observations in order to examine the mean state and interannual-decadal variability of the North Atlantic ocean since 1993. We assess how well the reanalyses are able to capture different processes and whether any understanding can be inferred. In particular we look at ocean heat content, transports, the AMOC and gyre strengths, water masses and convection. </p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Multiple Equilibria as a Possible Mechanism for Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8907-8922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Born ◽  
Juliette Mignot ◽  
Thomas F. Stocker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Multiple Equilibria ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract Decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic has received increased attention in recent years, because modeling results suggest predictability of heat content and circulation indices several years ahead. However, determining the applicability of these results in the real world is challenging because of an incomplete understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Here, the authors show that recent attempts to reconstruct the decadal variations in one of the dominant circulation systems of the region, the subpolar gyre (SPG), are not always consistent. A coherent picture is partly recovered by a simple conceptual model solely forced by reanalyzed surface air temperatures. This confirms that surface heat flux indeed plays a leading role for this type of variability, as has been suggested in previous studies. The results further suggest that large variations in the SPG correspond to the crossing of a bifurcation point that is predicted from idealized experiments and an analytical solution of the model used herein. Performance of this conceptual model is tested against a statistical stochastic model. Hysteresis and the existence of two stable modes of the SPG circulation shape its response to forcing by atmospheric temperatures. The identification of the essential dynamics and the reduction to a minimal model of SPG variability provide a quantifiable basis and a framework for future studies on decadal climate variability and predictability.

On the North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Change between 1955–70 and 1980–95

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (10) ◽  
pp. 3619-3628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Zhai ◽  
Luke Sheldon
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
The North ◽  
Content Change ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The upper-ocean heat content of the North Atlantic has undergone significant changes over the last 50 years but the underlying physical mechanisms are not yet well understood. In the present study, the authors examine the North Atlantic ocean heat content change in the upper 700 m between the 1955–70 and 1980–95 periods. Consistent with previous studies, the large-scale pattern consists of warming of the tropics and subtropics and cooling of the subpolar ocean. However, this study finds that the most significant heat content change in the North Atlantic during these two time periods is the warming of the Gulf Stream region. Numerical experiments strongly suggest that this warming in the Gulf Stream region is largely driven by changes of the large-scale wind forcing. Furthermore, the increased ocean heat content in the Gulf Stream region appears to feedback on to the atmosphere, resulting in warmer surface air temperature and enhanced precipitation there.

scholarly journals Atlantic meridional ocean heat transport at 26° N: impact on subtropical ocean heat content variability

Ocean Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1057-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Sonnewald ◽  
J. J.-M. Hirschi ◽  
R. Marsh ◽  
E. L. McDonagh ◽  
B. A. King
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Box Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Transport ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Local climate is significantly affected by changes in the oceanic heat content on a range of timescales. This variability is driven by heat fluxes from both the atmosphere and the ocean. In the Atlantic the meridional overturning circulation is the main contributor to the oceanic meridional heat transport for latitudes south of about 50° N. The RAPID project has been successfully monitoring the Atlantic meridional overturning at 26° N since 2004. This study demonstrates how these data can be used to estimate the variability of the basin-wide ocean heat content in the upper 800 m between 26° and 36° N. Traditionally the atmosphere is seen to dominate the ocean heat content variability. However, previous studies have looked at smaller areas in the Gulf Stream region, finding that the ocean dominates deseasoned fluctuations of ocean heat content, while studies of the whole North Atlantic region suggest that the atmosphere may be dominant. In our study we use a box model to investigate fluctuations of the ocean heat content in the subtropical North Atlantic between 26° and 36° N. The box model approach is validated using 19 yr of high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) data. We find that in both the GCM- and RAPID-based data the ocean heat transport dominates the deseasoned heat content variability, while the atmosphere's impact on the ocean heat content evolution stabilizes after 6 months. We demonstrate that the utility of the RAPID data goes beyond monitoring the overturning circulation at 26° N, and that it can be used to better understand the causes of ocean heat content variability in the North Atlantic. We illustrate this for a recent decrease in ocean heat content which was observed in the North Atlantic in 2009 and 2010. Our results suggest that most of this ocean heat content reduction can be explained by a reduction of the meridional ocean heat transport during this period.

scholarly journals Estimating Oceanic Heat Content Change Using Isotherms

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 4953-4969 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Palmer ◽  
Keith Haines
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Fall Rate ◽  
The North ◽  
Content Change ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract This paper presents a new analysis of ocean heat content changes over the last 50 yr using isotherms by calculating the mean temperature above the 14°C isotherm and the depth of the 14°C isotherm as separate variables. A new quantity called the “relative heat content” (“RHC”) is introduced, which represents the minimum local heat content change over time, relative to a fixed isotherm. It is shown how mean temperature and isotherm depth changes make separable and additive contributions to changes in RHC. Maps of RHC change between 1970 and 2000 show similar spatial patterns to a traditional fixed-depth ocean heat content change to 220 m. However, the separate contributions to RHC suggest a more spatially uniform contribution from warming above the isotherm, while isotherm depth changes show wind-driven signals, of which some are identifiable as being related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The time series show that the warming contribution to RHC dominates the global trend, while the depth contribution only dominates on the basin scale in the North Atlantic. The RHC shows minima associated with the major volcanic eruptions (particularly in the Indian Ocean), and these are entirely contributed by mean temperature changes rather than isotherm depth changes. The depth change contributions to RHC are strongly affected by the recently reported XBT fall-rate bias, whereas the mean temperature contributions are not. Therefore, only the isotherm depth change contributions to RHC will need to be reassessed as fall-rate-corrected data become available.

scholarly journals The Meridional Shift of the Midlatitude Westerlies over Arid Central Asia during the Past 21 000 Years Based on the TraCE-21ka Simulations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7455-7478
Author(s):  
Nanxuan Jiang ◽  
Qing Yan ◽  
Zhiqing Xu ◽  
Jian Shi ◽  
Ran Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Last Deglaciation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Last Deglaciation ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractTo advance our knowledge of the response of midlatitude westerlies to various external forcings, we investigate the meridional shift of midlatitude westerlies over arid central Asia (ACA) during the past 21 000 years, which experienced more varied forcings than the present day based on a set of transient simulations. Our results suggest that the evolution of midlatitude westerlies over ACA and driving factors vary with time and across seasons. In spring, the location of midlatitude westerlies over ACA oscillates largely during the last deglaciation, driven by meltwater fluxes and continental ice sheets, and then shows a long-term equatorward shift during the Holocene controlled by orbital insolation. In summer, orbital insolation dominates the meridional shift of midlatitude westerlies, with poleward and equatorward migration during the last deglaciation and the Holocene, respectively. From a thermodynamic perspective, variations in zonal winds are linked with the meridional temperature gradient based on the thermal wind relationship. From a dynamic perspective, variations in midlatitude westerlies are mainly induced by anomalous sea surface temperatures over the Indian Ocean through the Matsuno–Gill response and over the North Atlantic Ocean by the propagation of Rossby waves, or both, but their relative importance varies across forcings. Additionally, the modeled meridional shift of midlatitude westerlies is broadly consistent with geological evidence, although model–data discrepancies still exist. Overall, our study provides a possible scenario for a meridional shift of midlatitude westerlies over ACA in response to various external forcings during the past 21 000 years and highlights important roles of both the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in regulating Asian westerlies, which may shed light on the behavior of westerlies in the future.

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