Future storylines of the 2012 soybean failure event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Karin van der Wiel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Failure Event

<p>Weather events are a common cause for crop failures all over the world. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, the most common type of failure-inducing weather events are compounded. For these cases, explaining which conditions triggered a failure event is a complex task, as the links connecting climate and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. On top of that, the climate change is likely to perturb the interface between climate and agriculture, possibly altering the occurrences or the drivers of crop failures, or generating new types of extreme impacts. In this context, the goal of this study is to demonstrate how global warming can affect the climate-crop connection. For that, we use a storyline approach and focus on an observed failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in hotspots regions, such as the Midwest US, Brazil and Argentina. The scale of this event drove the global soybean prices to the highest values ever recorded. We set out to quantify the change in occurrence of similar events in a warmer scenario. The storylines allow for event attribution, where a given impact can be examined and its causes disentangled. Here, four hotspots of soybean production are examined to contemplate the local consequences of climate change. The study is divided in two parts. We first link climatic features with soybean yields. For each hotspot region, a random forest classifier model is used to establish which meteorological variables are most important and how they are correlated with low soybean yields. With the model trained, we identify the climatic conditions that lead to the 2012 event. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures. Three large ensembles of simulated weather are obtained from the EC-Earth global climate model, one relating to the present-day period (including the 2012 event) and two relating to future periods with different levels of future warming . We apply the random forest model to these data, and obtain failure statistics for both present and future conditions, isolating the influence of climate change on the soybean failure.  </p>

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of global warming on worldwide open field tomato cultivation through CSIRO-Mk3·0 global climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. S. SILVA ◽  
L. KUMAR ◽  
F. SHABANI ◽  
M. C. PICANÇO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Field ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYTomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) is one of the most important vegetable crops globally and an important agricultural sector for generating employment. Open field cultivation of tomatoes exposes the crop to climatic conditions, whereas greenhouse production is protected. Hence, global warming will have a greater impact on open field cultivation of tomatoes rather than the controlled greenhouse environment. Although the scale of potential impacts is uncertain, there are techniques that can be implemented to predict these impacts. Global climate models (GCMs) are useful tools for the analysis of possible impacts on a species. The current study aims to determine the impacts of climate change and the major factors of abiotic stress that limit the open field cultivation of tomatoes in both the present and future, based on predicted global climate change using CLIMatic indEX and the A2 emissions scenario, together with the GCM Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)-Mk3·0 (CS), for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that large areas that currently have an optimum climate will become climatically marginal or unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes due to progressively increasing heat and dry stress in the future. Conversely, large areas now marginal and unsuitable for open field cultivation of tomatoes will become suitable or optimal due to a decrease in cold stress. The current model may be useful for plant geneticists and horticulturalists who could develop new regional stress-resilient tomato cultivars based on needs related to these modelling projections.

scholarly journals Climate Data to Undertake Hygrothermal and Whole Building Simulations Under Projected Climate Change Influences for 11 Canadian Cities

Data ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Gaur ◽  
Michael Lacasse ◽  
Marianne Armstrong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

Buildings and homes in Canada will be exposed to unprecedented climatic conditions in the future as a consequence of global climate change. To improve the climate resiliency of existing and new buildings, it is important to evaluate their performance over current and projected future climates. Hygrothermal and whole building simulation models, which are important tools for assessing performance, require continuous climate records at high temporal frequencies of a wide range of climate variables for input into the kinds of models that relate to solar radiation, cloud-cover, wind, humidity, rainfall, temperature, and snow-cover. In this study, climate data that can be used to assess the performance of building envelopes under current and projected future climates, concurrent with 2 °C and 3.5 °C increases in global temperatures, are generated for 11 major Canadian cities. The datasets capture the internal variability of the climate as they are comprised of 15 realizations of the future climate generated by dynamically downscaling future projections from the CanESM2 global climate model and thereafter bias-corrected with reference to observations. An assessment of the bias-corrected projections suggests, as a consequence of global warming, future increases in the temperatures and precipitation, and decreases in the snow-cover and wind-speed for all cities.

scholarly journals Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Burlen Loring ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Harinarayan Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

scholarly journals Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Burlen Loring ◽  
Dáithí Stone ◽  
Harinarayan Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

scholarly journals Storylines of weather-induced crop failure events under climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1503-1527
Author(s):  
Henrique M. D. Goulart ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Christian Folberth ◽  
Juraj Balkovic ◽  
Bart van den Hurk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. Unfavourable weather is a common cause for crop failures all over the world. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, crop failure commonly is induced by the occurrence of multiple and combined anomalous meteorological drivers. For these cases, the explanation of conditions leading to crop failure is complex, as the links connecting weather and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. Furthermore, climate change is likely to perturb the meteorological conditions, possibly altering the occurrences of crop failures or leading to unprecedented drivers of extreme impacts. The goal of this study is to identify important meteorological drivers that cause crop failures and to explore changes in crop failures due to global warming. For that, we focus on a historical failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in the midwestern US. We first train a random forest model to identify the most relevant meteorological drivers of historical crop failures and to predict crop failure probabilities. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures and on the structure of compound drivers. We use large ensembles from the EC-Earth global climate model, corresponding to present-day, pre-industrial +2 and 3 ∘C warming, respectively, to isolate the global warming component. Finally, we explore the meteorological conditions inductive for the 2012 crop failure and construct analogues of these failure conditions in future climate settings. We find that crop failures in the midwestern US are linked to low precipitation levels, and high temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) levels during July and August. Results suggest soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. With more frequent warm years due to global warming, the joint hot–dry conditions leading to crop failures become mostly dependent on precipitation levels, reducing the importance of the relative compound contribution. While event analogues of the 2012 season are rare and not expected to increase, impact analogues show a significant increase in occurrence frequency under global warming, but for different combinations of the meteorological drivers than experienced in 2012. This has implications for assessment of the drivers of extreme impact events.

scholarly journals Analysis of climate change effects on evapotranspiration in the watershed Uhlířská in the Jizera Mountains

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 28-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Remrová ◽  
M. Císlerová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Movement ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions

This study has been conducted with the aim to analyse the hydrology balance in the experimental watershed Uhlířská under the actual atmospheric conditions and expected climate changes in the upcoming years. The main accent is put on the water availability for the water root uptake by the dominant grass vegetation (Calamagrostis villosa). Special attention is paid to the seasonal potential evapotranspiration estimation under mountain climatic conditions. Three methods for the potential evapotranspiration quantification are analysed in order to find out the most acceptable approach for future periods for which no adequate weather data are available. The future precipitation and temperature data are simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM which is driven by global climate model HadCM3. The data are simulated for the period from 2071 to 2100. The modelling of the soil water movement (using S1D model) is carried out on selected 18 years from the period of 1961–2005 and on selected 10 climate-change-affected years with extremely low precipitations high temperatures. The results of the scenario presented do not indicate that the climatic changes should significantly affect the hydrological balance in the studied area in terms of evapotranspiration up to the year 2100. Due to the lower seasonal precipitation and higher air the temperature, was increased in the results of simulations under the defined approach, however, the local vegetation cover did not suffer from insufficient water supply. These considerations are close to the simulation models used.

scholarly journals Weather-induced crop failure events under climate change: a storyline approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrique M. D. Goulart ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Christian Folberth ◽  
Juraj Balkovic ◽  
Bart van den Hurk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Meteorological Features

Abstract. Unfavourable weather is a common cause for crop failures all over the world. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, crop failure commonly is induced by the occurrence of multiple and combined anomalous meteorological drivers. For these cases, the explanation of conditions leading to crop failure is complex, as the links connecting weather and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. Furthermore, climate change is likely to perturb the meteorological conditions, possibly altering the occurrences of crop failures or leading to unprecedented drivers of extreme impacts. The goal of this study is to identify important meteorological drivers that cause crop failures and to explore changes in crop failures due to global warming. For that, we focus on a historical failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in the Midwest US. We first train a random forest model to identify the most relevant meteorological drivers of historical crop failures and to predict crop failure probabilities. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures and on the structure of compound drivers. We use large ensembles from the EC-Earth global climate model, corresponding to present day, pre-industrial +2 °C and 3 °C warming respectively, to isolate the global warming component. Finally, we explore the meteorological conditions inductive for the 2012 crop failure, and construct analogues of these failure conditions in future climate settings. Unlike present-day conditions, future warming may increase the probability of crop failures resulting from univariate meteorological features, reducing the importance of compound failure drivers. Impact-analogues show a significant increase under global warming, with changes in the corresponding drivers. This has implications for risk assessment, as changing drivers of extreme impact events are highly relevant.

scholarly journals Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Francisco Estrada ◽  
Oscar Calderón-Bustamante ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Carolina Ureta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractImpacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (6) ◽  
pp. 1258-1263 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. David Neelin ◽  
Sandeep Sahany ◽  
Samuel N. Stechmann ◽  
Diana N. Bernstein
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Precipitation Loss

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

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