scholarly journals Seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust constrained by coupling segmentation and earthquake scaling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Michel ◽  
Romain Jolivet ◽  
Chris Rollins ◽  
Jorge Jara ◽  
Luca Dal Zilio
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Scaling Law ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Earthquake Cycle ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Rupture Dynamics ◽  
Earthquake Rupture Dynamics ◽  
Earthquake Scaling ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes of magnitude 9 or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies do not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the magnitude of large earthquakes. Here, we propose a methodology for incorporating outcomes of physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. The methodology takes also into account the moment deficit rate, the magnitude-frequency of the current and historical catalogs, and the moment-area earthquake scaling law.</p><p>For the Himalaya setting, we estimate an improved probabilistic estimate moment deficit rate using coupling estimates inferred using a Bayesian framework. The locking distribution of the fault suggests an along-strike segmentation of the MHT with three segments that may act as aseismic barriers. The effect of the barriers on rupture propagation is assessed using results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle. We show that, accounting for measurement and methodological uncertainties, the MHT is prone to rupturing in M8.7 earthquakes every T>200 yr, with M>9.5 events being greatly improbable. The methodology also allows to estimate the probability of the position of earthquakes on the fault based on the effect of the seismic barriers and their magnitude. This study provides a straightforward and computationally efficient method for estimating regional seismic hazard accounting for the full physics of fault slip.</p>

scholarly journals Daily measurement of slow slip from low-frequency earthquakes is consistent with ordinary earthquake scaling

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. eaaw9386 ◽  
Author(s):  
William B. Frank ◽  
Emily E. Brodsky
Keyword(s):  
Full Range ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Slow Slip ◽  
Earthquake Cycle ◽  
Slow Slip Events ◽  
Event Time ◽  
Earthquake Scaling ◽  
The Moment

Slow slip transients on faults can last from seconds to months and stitch together the earthquake cycle. However, no single geophysical instrument is able to observe the full range of slow slip because of bandwidth limitations. Here, we connect seismic and geodetic data from the Mexican subduction zone to explore an instrumental blind spot. We establish a calibration of the daily median amplitude of the seismically recorded low-frequency earthquakes to the daily geodetically recorded moment rate of previously established slow slip events. This calibration allows us to use the precise evolution of low-frequency earthquake activity to quantitatively measure the moment of smaller, subdaily slip events that are unresolvable by geodesy alone. The resulting inferred slow slip moments scale with duration and inter-event time like ordinary earthquakes. These new quantifications help connect slow and fast events in a broad spectrum of transient slip and suggest that slow slip events behave much like ordinary earthquakes.

The relations between the corner frequency, seismic moment and source dynamic parameters derived from the spontaneous rupture of a circular fault

2021 ◽  
Vol 228 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-146
Author(s):  
Jian Wen ◽  
Jiankuan Xu ◽  
Xiaofei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stress Drop ◽  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Scaling Law ◽  
Boundary Integral ◽  
Corner Frequency ◽  
Dynamic Parameters ◽  
Zone Size ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Scaling Relationships

SUMMARY The stress drop is an important dynamic source parameter for understanding the physics of source processes. The estimation of stress drops for moderate and small earthquakes is based on measurements of the corner frequency ${f_c}$, the seismic moment ${M_0}$ and a specific theoretical model of rupture behaviour. To date, several theoretical rupture models have been used. However, different models cause considerable differences in the estimated stress drop, even in an idealized scenario of circular earthquake rupture. Moreover, most of these models are either kinematic or quasi-dynamic models. Compared with previous models, we use the boundary integral equation method to simulate spontaneous dynamic rupture in a homogeneous elastic full space and then investigate the relations between the corner frequency, seismic moment and source dynamic parameters. Spontaneous ruptures include two states: runaway ruptures, in which the rupture does not stop without a barrier, and self-arresting ruptures, in which the rupture can stop itself after nucleation. The scaling relationships between ${f_c}$, ${M_0}$ and the dynamic parameters for runaway ruptures are different from those for self-arresting ruptures. There are obvious boundaries in those scaling relations that distinguish runaway ruptures from self-arresting ruptures. Because the stress drop varies during the rupture and the rupture shape is not circular, Eshelby's analytical solution may be inaccurate for spontaneous dynamic ruptures. For runaway ruptures, the relations between the corner frequency and dynamic parameters coincide with those in the previous kinematic or quasi-dynamic models. For self-arresting ruptures, the scaling relationships are opposite to those for runaway ruptures. Moreover, the relation between ${f_c}$ and ${M_0}$ for a spontaneous dynamic rupture depends on three factors: the dynamic rupture state, the background stress and the nucleation zone size. The scaling between ${f_c}$ and ${M_0}$ is ${f_c} \propto {M_0^{ - n}}$, where n is larger than 0. Earthquakes with the same dimensionless dynamic parameters but different nucleation zone sizes are self-similar and follow a ${f_c} \propto {M_0^{ - 1/3}}$ scaling law. However, if the nucleation zone size does not change, the relation between ${f_c}$ and ${M_0}$ shows a clear departure from self-similarity due to the rupture state or background stress.

SIMULATION OF DOOR MOVEMENT WITH A CLOSING MECHANISM

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (11) ◽  
pp. 4-10
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Reutov
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Characteristics ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Quality Criteria ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Closing Time ◽  
Door Opening ◽  
Air Resistance ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Moment Of Resistance ◽  
Closing Mechanism

The work objective is to determine the parameters of the closing mechanism that provide the specified characteristics of the door movement. Research method: computer simulation of the movement of a door with a lock mechanism as a multi-mass dynamic system, taking into account the mechanical characteristics and contact interaction of the lock mechanism. Research results and novelty. Computer dynamic models of a door with a door closer and a door with a spring have been developed. The moments of the door opening force, the closing time of the door, the angular velocity of the door at the time of impact with the frame are considered as the criteria for the quality of the door closing mechanism. Formulas are obtained that determine the permissible values of stiffness and deformation of the door closer spring according to the specified moments of the door opening force. The movement of doors with a door closer and with a spring is compared. The parameters of the closing mechanism providing the specified characteristics of the door movement of the considered example are determined. It is shown that with the same values of the opening force moments, the speed of impact with the frame in the case of the door closer is less than the door with a spring. Conclusions: The developed computer dynamic models of a door with a door closer and a door with a spring make it possible to determine the characteristics of the door movement taking into account the inertial and mechanical characteristics of the door closer and spring mechanisms. The permissible values of stiffness and deformation of the door closer spring can be determined by the specified moments of the door opening force in two positions. It is established that the forces of air resistance and friction in the hinges of the door cannot create the moment of resistance necessary for smooth closing of the door without a strong impact on the frame with a limited closing time. The quality criteria that minimize the closing time and the speed of impact of the door with the frame are contradictory. The choice of optimal parameters of the door closing mechanism is possible if one of the criteria is replaced by a restriction. The developed formulas and computer models are recommended for use in the design of devices that restrict the movement of doors.

3D linked megathrust, dynamic rupture and  tsunami propagation and inundation modeling:  Dynamic effects of supershear and tsunami earthquakes 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Aniko Wirp ◽  
Alice-Agnes Gabriel ◽  
Elizabeth H. Madden ◽  
Maximilian Schmeller ◽  
Iris van Zelst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subduction Zones ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Poisson Ratio ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Moment Magnitude ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
S Wave ◽  
Tsunami Propagation

<p>Earthquake rupture dynamic models capture the variability of slip in space and time while accounting for the structural complexity which is characteristic for subduction zones. The use of a geodynamic subduction and seismic cycling (SC) model to initialize dynamic rupture (DR) ensures that initial conditions are self-consistent and reflect long-term behavior. We extend the 2D geodynamical subduction and SC model of van Zelst et al. (2019) and use it as input for realistic 3-dimensional DR megathrust earthquake models. We follow the subduction to tsunami run-up linking approach described in Madden et al. (2020), including a complex subduction setup along with their resulting tsunamis. The distinct variation of shear traction and friction coefficients with depth lead to realistic average rupture speeds and dynamic stress drop as well as efficient tsunami generation. </p><p>We here analyze a total of 14 subduction-initialized 3D dynamic rupture-tsunami scenarios. By varying the hypocentral location along arc and depth, we generate 12 distinct unilateral and bilateral earthquakes with depth-variable slip distribution and directivity, bimaterial, and geometrical effects in the dynamic slip evolutions. While depth variations of the hypocenters barely influence the tsunami behavior, lateral varying nucleation locations lead to a shift in the on-fault slip which causes time delays of the wave arrival at the coast. The fault geometry of our DR model that arises during the SC model is non-planar and includes large-scale roughness. These features (topographic highs) trigger supershear rupture propagation in up-dip or down-dip direction, depending on the hypocentral depth.</p><p>In two additional scenarios, we analyze variations in the energy budget of the DR scenarios. In the SC model, an incompressible medium is assumed (ν=0.5) which is valid only for small changes in pressure and temperature. Unlike in the DR model where the material is compressible and a different Poisson’s ratio (ν=0.25) has to be assigned. Poisson’s ratios between 0.1 and 0.4 stand for various compressible materials. To achieve a lower shear strength of all material on and off the megathrust fault and to facilitate slip, we increase the Poisson ratio in the DR model to ν=0.3 which is consistent with basaltic rocks. As a result, larger fault slip is concentrated at shallower depths and generates higher vertical seafloor displacement and earthquake moment magnitude respectively. Even though the tsunami amplitudes are much higher, the same dynamic behavior as in the twelve hypocenter-variable models can be observed. Lastly, we increase fracture energy by changing the critical slip distance in the linear slip-weakening frictional parameterization. This generates a tsunami earthquake (Kanamori, 1972) characterized by low rupture velocity (on average half the amount of s-wave speed) and low peak slip rate, but at the same time large shallow fault slip and moment magnitude. The shallow fault slip of this event causes the highest vertical seafloor uplift compared to all other simulations. This leads to the highest tsunami amplitude and inundation area while the wavefront hits the coast delayed compared to the other scenarios.</p>

Efficient Spatial Dynamics for Continuum Arms

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isuru S. Godage ◽  
Raul Wirz ◽  
Ian D. Walker ◽  
Robert J. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Pneumatic Muscle ◽  
Computational Overhead ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Continuum Robot ◽  
Transient And Steady State ◽  
The Continuum

Continuum robot dynamic models have previously involved a choice between high accuracy, numerically intensive models, and low accuracy, computationally efficient models. The objective of this paper is to provide an accurate dynamic model with low computational overhead. Our approach is to place point masses at the center of gravity of the continuum section, rather than along the robot’s backbone or centerline. This enables the model to match the robot’s energetic characteristics with many fewer point masses. We experimentally validate the model using a pneumatic muscle actuated continuum arm. We find that the proposed model successfully captures both the transient and steady state dynamics of the arm.

scholarly journals A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: The South Malawi Active Fault Database

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack N. Williams ◽  
Hassan Mdala ◽  
Åke Fagereng ◽  
Luke N. J. Wedmore ◽  
Juliet Biggs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Scaling Relationships ◽  
Regional Strain ◽  
Earthquake Scaling ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Fault Slip Rate

Abstract. Seismic hazard is frequently characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, in regions where the instrumental record is short relative to earthquake repeat times, extrapolating it to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic settings and carries large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated through an approach that combines fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We then apply this approach to the southern Malawi Rift where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are theoretical and observational constraints on how strain is distributed between border and intrabasinal faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), the first database of its kind in the East African Rift System (EARS) and designed so that the outputs can be easily incorporated into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMAFD, and MW 6.0–7.8 for whole fault ruptures. These potentially high magnitudes for continental normal faults reflect southern Malawi's 11–140 km long faults and thick (30–35 km) seismogenic crust. However, low slip rates (intermediate estimates 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intrabasinal faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can be reduced most significantly from an improved understanding of the rate and partitioning of rift-extension in southern Malawi, earthquake scaling relationships, and earthquake rupture scenarios. Hence these are critical areas for future research. The SMAFD provides a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterize seismic hazard in low strain rate settings with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and could be adapted for use elsewhere in the EARS or globally.

scholarly journals Predicting Fault Slip via Transfer Learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kun Wang ◽  
Christopher Johnson ◽  
Kane Bennett ◽  
Paul Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Laboratory Data ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Geophysical Data ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission histories and fault-slip from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate results using laboratory data. Notably slip-predictions markedly improve using the simulation-data trained-model and training the latent space using a portion of a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.

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