scholarly journals Generating automatic warning proposals

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Mahlstein ◽  
Daniele Nerini
Keyword(s):  
Intermediate Phase ◽  
Warning System ◽  
End User ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Complex Chain ◽  
First Results ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Fully Automatic ◽  
Municipal Boundaries ◽  
Danger Level

<p>A warning system is a complex chain, which builds on different applications leading to a customer friendly product. The goal of the product is to deliver useful information to the end-user, giving indication of the severity of the event and what best to do in order to avoid damages and/or injuries/fatalities. In-between the different production steps are a number of processes, which can be altered to improve the products; for example by including probabilistic information or by producing impact-oriented warnings.</p><p>As MeteoSwiss is renewing its warning system, it opens up the possibility to include the above-mentioned information. Furthermore, it also offers the option to automatize the warning generation chain. One key part of this process are the automatically generated first guesses of warning regions. These regions display the danger level of any given hazard based only on the meteorological situation; hence, no predefined regions will be used to generate the warning products. As of now, MeteoSwiss used a set of predefined regions on which the danger level was indicated. These regions were not necessarily defined to best represent weather phenomena but rather often municipal boundaries.</p><p>However, how to produce meaningful regions is not trivial and it requires discussions with the forecasters as there are a number of parameters to tune. Tuning the regions is needed as no forecasting system is perfect and ideally, the automatically generated first guesses compensate for these short-comings. However, realistically speaking, before achieving a fully automatic warning system, there will be an intermediate phase when first guesses will likely have to be manually adjusted by the forecasters.</p><p>We will present our work and first results of automatic warning proposals based on COSMO-2E and feedbacks thereof we got from discussions with the forecasters.</p>

scholarly journals The GITEWS ocean bottom sensor packages

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1759-1780
Author(s):  
O. Boebel ◽  
M. Busack ◽  
E. R. Flueh ◽  
V. Gouretski ◽  
H. Rohr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Tsunami ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Ocean Bottom ◽  
Bottom Pressure ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Ocean Bottom Seismometers ◽  
First Results ◽  
Sensor Package

Abstract. The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) aims at reducing the risks posed by events such as the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. To minimize the lead time for tsunami alerts, to avoid false alarms, and to accurately predict tsunami wave heights, real-time observations of ocean bottom pressure from the deep ocean are required. As part of the GITEWS infrastructure, the parallel development of two ocean bottom sensor packages, PACT (Pressure based Acoustically Coupled Tsunameter) and OBU (Ocean Bottom Unit), was initiated. The sensor package requirements included bidirectional acoustic links between the bottom sensor packages and the hosting surface buoys, which are moored nearby. Furthermore, compatibility between these sensor systems and the overall GITEWS data-flow structure and command hierarchy was mandatory. While PACT aims at providing highly reliable, long term bottom pressure data only, OBU is based on ocean bottom seismometers to concurrently record sea-floor motion, necessitating highest data rates. This paper presents the technical design of PACT, OBU and the HydroAcoustic Modem (HAM.node) which is used by both systems, along with first results from instrument deployments off Indonesia.

scholarly journals Application of data-based mechanistic modelling for flood forecasting at multiple locations in the Eden catchment in the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Leedal ◽  
A. H. Weerts ◽  
P. J. Smith ◽  
K. J. Beven
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Open Shell ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Mechanistic Modelling ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. The Delft Flood Early Warning System provides a versatile framework for real-time flood forecasting. The UK Environment Agency has adopted the Delft framework to deliver its National Flood Forecasting System. The Delft system incorporates new flood forecasting models very easily using an "open shell" framework. This paper describes how we added the data-based mechanistic modelling approach to the model inventory and presents a case study for the Eden catchment (Cumbria, UK).

scholarly journals A pilot operational flood warning system in Andalusia (Spain): presentation and first results

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 10425-10463 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-A. Versini ◽  
M. Berenguer ◽  
C. Corral ◽  
D. Sempere-Torres ◽  
A. Santiago-Gahete
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Flow Measurements ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Flood Alert ◽  
First Results ◽  
Flood Warning System ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

Abstract. The Guadalhorce Basin is located in Andalusia (South of Spain). Its floods have historically represented a major hazard for the city of Málaga. In 2008 it has been decided to implement a pilot operational flood warning system (GFWS) with the aim of analyzing the capability to minimize the risk to people, and economic activity, as well as for guiding water resources management. The system is oriented to provide distributed warnings based on rainfall accumulations and discharge forecasts. Rainfall accumulation maps are generated according to the interpolation of rain gauge measurements and weather radar rainfall maps whereas discharge forecasts are computed using a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Due to the lack of flow measurements, the model was calibrated a priori in most of the basin area. The performance of the system has been tested on two recent rainfall events which caused many inundations. First results show how the GFWS performed well and was able to forecast the location and timing of flooding. It demonstrates that a simple model and a rough calibration could be enough to issue valuable warnings. Moreover, the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecasts have been used to prevent from the flood several days in advance. With low resolution and long anticipation, EFAS appears as a good complement tool to improve flood forecasting and compensate for the short lead times of the GFWS.

Improve Safety at Highway Crossings Through Predictive Behavior and Innovative Technologies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hofbauer
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Traffic Conditions ◽  
The World ◽  
Additional Protection ◽  
Red Flag ◽  
Protection Devices ◽  
Fully Automatic ◽  
Predictive Behavior ◽  
Future Technologies

The science and technology used in highway crossings in the United States and around the world have come a long way from a single flagman sitting in a booth, equipped with a red flag or lantern in his hand, to clear tracks and stop pedestrians, horses, and or a motor coaches for an approaching train to a fully automatic warning system requiring limited monthly testing. Today’s highway crossings are monitored by railways and municipalities such that, any changes in railway or roadway traffic conditions can be scrutinized. These changes, an increase in train or vehicle traffic, may trigger the need for additional protection devices to be implemented to make highway crossings safer for all; passing trains, motorists and pedestrians. But, are these requirements enough to eliminate accidents. Historically speaking, these accidents range from; failures with the activation of the warning system; distracted motorists or motorists not willing to comply to the warning; pedestrians rushing to beat the train while underestimating the trains speed or; fully knowing and willing to not stop at the flashing lights and gates and willing to take the risk and go around flashing gates. This paper will investigate the current and future technologies that are being tested and implemented on highway crossings as well as look into the predictive behavior of motorists and pedestrians as they approach crossings and how changes can be implemented to maximize the effectiveness of a highway crossing. Key elements from various studies will be included that have been suggested through analyzing driver’s behavior at highway crossings, as well as the additional technologies that have and can be implemented to provide additional warnings to alert motorist of trains approaching.

Moving towards a fully probabilistic, end-to-end, impact-based, flood forecasting and warning system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlie Pilling
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Incident Management ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
End To End ◽  
Forecasting And Warning ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
The Uk

<p>Set up in 2009, the UK Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC), is a successful partnership between the Environment Agency and the Met Office to provide national, operational, flood risk guidance. At the same time, we have a development programme to continuously improve flood forecasting. Operational for over a decade, the FFC has a strong portfolio and reputation amongst its users and customers. For example, the 2019 Responder Survey reported that 94% of those who have had contact with the FFC within the last 12 months are satisfied with the services provided.  </p><p>High impact, low probability events have been a feature of the first 10 years of the Flood Forecasting Centre. Probabilistic forecasting and risk-based approaches provide approaches to identify, forecast and warn for such events. Indeed, whilst these are currently successfully employed by various National Meteorological Hydrological Centres, there is also recognition (for example, World Meteorological Organisation) that effective forecasting and warning systems should be:</p><ul><li>‘<strong>impact-based’</strong>;</li> <li>driven by ensembles or realistic scenarios through an <strong>‘end-to-end’</strong> system (rather than precipitation ranges being simplified);</li> <li>more <strong>objective</strong>, so using new tools such as ensemble ‘sub-setting’, pattern recognition and machine learning to extract most value.</li> </ul><p>The Environment Agency is implementing a new Delft-FEWS forecasting system this year, termed Incident Management Forecasting System (IMFS). This will introduce a step change in capability for probabilistic impact-based forecasting. Initially, rainfall and coastal scenarios (termed ‘best-estimate’ and ‘reasonable worst case’) will be used to drive end-to-end forecasting, which includes for example impact data bases for property, infrastructure and communities. This is very much a stepping stone in the technical (systems) and adaptive (people, culture) transformation to a <strong>fully probabilistic, end-to-end, impact-based, flood forecasting. </strong></p><p>I will share some of our recent approaches to:</p><ul><li>objective, ensemble based, forecasting, including the Natural Hazards Partnership surface water hazard impact model (driven by the Met Office MOGREPS precipitation ensembles) which goes live this year;</li> <li>scenario generation and ensemble sub-setting to provide input to end-to-end, impact-based forecasting (IMFS);</li> <li>next steps in moving to a fully probabilistic, end-to-end, impact-based, flood forecasting and warning system</li> </ul><p>I will also highlight some of our current challenges that we would love to work with others to solve.</p>

Multi-decadal variability in long-range ENSO predictions (SEAS5-20C)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Magdalena Balmaseda ◽  
Tim Stockdale
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
First Year ◽  
Initial State ◽  
First Results ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Similar Good ◽  
Ocean Observations

<p>Motivated by the high skill in predicting ENSO on seasonal time scales with ECMWF’s seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 and by previous findings of multi-decadal variability in seasonal forecast skill of extratropical dynamics, we have carried out an extensive set of 24-month long coupled hindcasts from 1901 to 2010. The hindcasts were run with SEAS5 in reduced resolution and are initialised from, and verified against, reanalyses of the 20<sup>th</sup>Century. They allow us to analyse ENSO forecast skill beyond the first year, to study how skill varies on decadal time scales and to test sensitivities to atmospheric wind forcings and the assimilation of ocean observations in the initial conditions.</p><p>First results show a substantial amount of multi-decadal variability in both ENSO mean state and forecast skill. We find periods in the early-to-mid 20<sup>th</sup>Century with much reduced levels of skill, in particular after the spring barrier in the first forecast year. Periods at the beginning and at the end of the Century show broadly similar good performances with substantial skill even after the first year spring barrier. Combined effects of the wind forcing and the assimilation of ocean data on the initial state seem to play a crucial role in understanding this behaviour.</p>

scholarly journals ANYCaRE: a role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making and communication challenges in weather-related hazards

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galateia Terti ◽  
Isabelle Ruin ◽  
Milan Kalas ◽  
Ilona Láng ◽  
Arnau Cangròs i Alonso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Interdisciplinary Cooperation ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
First Results ◽  
Communication Challenges ◽  
Role Playing Game

Abstract. This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and (ii) communicate and trigger protective action at different levels of the warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong-wind game simulations seek to represent the players' realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France, where European researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards (i) with undergraduate university students in France and (ii) with Finnish stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies. First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive manner. The ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning tool to enhance participants' understanding of the complexities and challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.

scholarly journals Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-446
Author(s):  
Christos Giannaros ◽  
Elissavet Galanaki ◽  
Vassiliki Kotroni ◽  
Konstantinos Lagouvardos ◽  
Christina Oikonomou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction Model ◽  
Operational Mode ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Modeling Methodology ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Warning Services

The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.

scholarly journals ANYCaRE: A role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making and communication challenges in weather-related hazards

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galateia Terti ◽  
Isabelle Ruin ◽  
Milan Kalas ◽  
Ilona Láng ◽  
Arnau Cangròs i Alonso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Interdisciplinary Cooperation ◽  
Strong Wind ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
First Results ◽  
Communication Challenges ◽  
Role Playing Game

Abstract. This study proposes a role-playing experiment to explore the value of modern impact-based weather forecasts on the decision-making process to (i) issue warnings and manage the official emergency response under uncertainty and (ii) communicate and trigger protective actions at different levels of the warning system across Europe. Here, flood or strong wind game simulations seek to represent to the players realistic uncertainties and dilemmas embedded in the real-time forecasting-warning processes. The game was first tested in two scientific workshops in Finland and France where European researchers, developers, forecasters and civil protection representatives played the simulations. Two other game sessions were organized afterwards (i) with undergraduate University students in France and (ii) with Finnish stakeholders involved in the management of hazardous weather emergencies. First results indicate that multi-model developments and crowdsourcing tools increase the level of confidence in the decision-making under pressure. We found that the role-playing approach facilitates interdisciplinary cooperation and argumentation on emergency response in a fun and interactive manner. ANYCaRE experiment was proposed, therefore, as a valuable learning tool to enhance participants’ understanding of the complexities and challenges met by various actors in weather-related emergency management.

scholarly journals Using damage reports to assess different versions of a hydrological early warning system

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4365-4401 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Defrance ◽  
P. Javelle ◽  
D. Organde ◽  
S. Ecrepont ◽  
V. Andréassian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Critical Success Index

Abstract. In Europe, flash floods affect mainly the Mediterranean and mountainous regions, even if other regions also occasionally suffer from them. The catchments involved are usually small and ungauged, with short time of concentration. Forecasting this type of event remains difficult using hydrological models, and assessing the models is even more problematic. Typically, assessment is limited to gauged catchments that have relatively different geomorphological characteristics. The aim of this article is to present a method for assessing the models on real ungauged catchments through the use of damage reports and a multi-threshold approach, with assessment criteria that are based on a contingency table of the Critical Success Index type. The main conclusion, as demonstrated by Irstea's "Adaptation d'Information géographique pour l'Alerte en crue" for "Geographic information adaptation for flood warning" (AIGA) flood forecasting system and by the new version of AIGA for high-altitude catchments, is that while assessing hydrological models on gauged catchments is necessary, it is never sufficient and must be supplemented by assessments on ungauged catchments. This underlines the utility of building flood damage databases that are as exhaustive as possible. Such databases can be a valuable addition to more standard, often limited sources of data, especially for mountainous regions.

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