The new high resolution climate projections dataset DRIAS-2020 over France

This communication will present the new high resolution climate dataset over France named DRIAS-2020, available on the French partnership national climate service DRIAS (Meteo-France, IPSL and CERFACS) and the associated report published on January 2021.As for the previous publication in 2014, the climate projections are based on the Euro-Cordex ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past six years. Different selection criteria were defined to build a robust and synthetic set (8 to 12 simulations for each of the three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) that best represents the uncertainties of climate change in France. The selected climate simulations were corrected by the new Adamont method (Verfaillie et al, 2017) applied to the SAFRAN reanalysis at 8km resolution over France. This method provides the DRIAS portal (www.drias-climat.fr) with a new coherent dataset of several meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, snow, humidity, wind, radiation). The availability of this dataset was joined with a scientific report &#8220;DRIAS-2020&#8221; analysing the expected climate change in France during the 21st century.The mean temperature is increasing for all three scenarios, with a continuous rise until the end of the century (period 2071-2100) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with median values reaching +2.1&#176;C and +3.9&#176;C respectively. This warming, more marked in the summer, presents a geographical variability with a stronger increase in the east of the country. This change in temperature is also reflected in the extremes, with a dramatic rise in the number of heat wave days in all three scenarios. The evolution of annual precipitation, stable or slightly increasing depending on the horizons and scenarios, is accompanied by model uncertainty, which can reverse the sign of the trend. This evolution is subject to seasonal (increase in winter, decrease in summer) and geographical variations (increase in the northern half and decrease in some regions of the South). The evolution of extreme precipitation and summer droughts also presents strong uncertainties.These data are intended to be widely used in France for all impact or adaptation studies such as already done for snow cover (ClimSnow) or in progress for water resource (National Explore2 project).

Download Full-text

Selecting climate projections for services: the DRIAS-2020 dataset

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9527 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lola Corre ◽

Samuel Somot ◽

Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽

Sébastien Bernus ◽

Agathe Drouin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Easy Access ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Quantile Mapping ◽

The Past ◽

Climate Service ◽

Climatic Information

The French National Climate Service &#8220;Drias, futures of climate&#8221; was launched in 2012, as a response of the French scientific community to society&#8217;s need for climatic information. It is mainly composed of a website that provides easy access to the best available climate data to characterize climate change over France. Latest advances developed in 2020 include the availability of a new set of regional climate scenarios corrected by a quantile-mapping based method with correction depending on the weather regime. As for the previous set, the climate projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past years. Singular effort was done to build a robust and synthetic set that well represents the uncertainties of climate change over France. The different criteria defined to select the simulations will be presented, and the range of the projected climate change will be examined, with respect to larger ensembles.&#160;

Download Full-text

d4PDF: large-ensemble and high-resolution climate simulations for global warming risk assessment

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science ◽

10.1186/s40645-020-00367-7 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Masayoshi Ishii ◽

Nobuhito Mori

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Global Warming ◽

High Resolution ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Future Climate ◽

Atmospheric Models ◽

Large Ensemble ◽

Past Climate ◽

The Past ◽

Climate Simulations

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

Download Full-text

Comparison of regional characteristics of land precipitation climatology projected by an MRI-AGCM multi-cumulus scheme and multi-SST ensemble with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

Progress in Earth and Planetary Science ◽

10.1186/s40645-020-00394-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Rui Ito ◽

Tosiyuki Nakaegawa ◽

Izuru Takayabu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Annual Precipitation ◽

Cmip5 Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Uncertainty Range ◽

High Performing

AbstractEnsembles of climate change projections created by general circulation models (GCMs) with high resolution are increasingly needed to develop adaptation strategies for regional climate change. The Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric GCM version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2), which is listed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), has been typically run with resolutions of 60 km and 20 km. Ensembles of MRI-AGCM3.2 consist of members with multiple cumulus convection schemes and different patterns of future sea surface temperature, and are utilized together with their downscaled data; however, the limited size of the high-resolution ensemble may lead to undesirable biases and uncertainty in future climate projections that will limit its appropriateness and effectiveness for studies on climate change and impact assessments. In this study, to develop a comprehensive understanding of the regional precipitation simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2, we investigate how well MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the present-day regional precipitation around the globe and compare the uncertainty in future precipitation changes and the change projection itself between MRI-AGCM3.2 and the CMIP5 multiple atmosphere–ocean coupled GCM (AOGCM) ensemble. MRI-AGCM3.2 reduces the bias of the regional mean precipitation obtained with the high-performing CMIP5 models, with a reduction of approximately 20% in the bias over the Tibetan Plateau through East Asia and Australia. When 26 global land regions are considered, MRI-AGCM3.2 simulates the spatial pattern and the regional mean realistically in more regions than the individual CMIP5 models. As for the future projections, in 20 of the 26 regions, the sign of annual precipitation change is identical between the 50th percentiles of the MRI-AGCM3.2 ensemble and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. In the other six regions around the tropical South Pacific, the differences in modeling with and without atmosphere–ocean coupling may affect the projections. The uncertainty in future changes in annual precipitation from MRI-AGCM3.2 partially overlaps the maximum–minimum uncertainty range from the full ensemble of the CMIP5 models in all regions. Moreover, on average over individual regions, the projections from MRI-AGCM3.2 spread over roughly 0.8 of the uncertainty range from the high-performing CMIP5 models compared to 0.4 of the range of the full ensemble.

Download Full-text

A high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5-Land reanalysis for climate change impact assessments

10.31223/x5s610 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Noël ◽

Harilaos Loukos ◽

Dimitri Defrance

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Climate Models ◽

Mapping Method ◽

Cumulative Distribution ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Climate Modelling ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Surface Climate ◽

Emissions Scenarios

A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP6 experiment using the ERA5-Land reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.1°x 0.1°, comprises 5 climate models and includes two surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature and precipitation. Two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: one with mitigation policy (SSP126) and one without mitigation (SSP585). The downscaling method is a Quantile Mapping method (QM) called the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDF-t) method that was first used for wind values and is now referenced in dozens of peer-reviewed publications. The data processing includes quality control of metadata according to the climate modelling community standards and value checking for outlier detection.

Download Full-text

Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres ◽

10.1029/2007jd009719 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 113 (D19) ◽

Cited By ~ 160

Author(s):

Rutger Dankers ◽

Luc Feyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Change Impact

Download Full-text

High resolution climate reconstructions of recent warming using instrumental and ice core records from coastal Antarctica

MAUSAM ◽

10.54302/mausam.v62i4.392 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 62 (4) ◽

pp. 665-672

Author(s):

MELOTH THAMBAN ◽

SUSHANT S.NAIK ◽

C.M. LALURAJ ◽

R. RAVINDRA

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Ice Core ◽

Ice Cores ◽

Temporal Consistency ◽

The Past ◽

Proxy Records ◽

Dronning Maud Land ◽

Land Region

In-situ observational record of Antarctic surface temperatures is rather sparse. Proxy based ice core studies are thus critical for reconstructing the past climate change on centennial and decadal time scales. The present study review the available instrumental and proxy records from the Dronning Maud Land region of East Antarctica as well as report recent evidences of Antarctic climate change and its global linkages. The monthly mean air temperature records of the Novolazarevskaya (Novo) station, which is the longest (since 1961) and continuous meteorological record in this region, revealed a significant warming trend at a rate of 0.25 °C / decade. To understand the spatial and temporal consistency of this warming, well-dated ice cores from the coastal Dronning Maud Land region were assessed. All proxy records consistently suggest an enhanced warming up to +0.12 °C / decade. This is further supported by a recent assessment of stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope proxy records from two high resolution ice cores (IND-25/B5 and IND-22/B4) from this region. Among these records, the IND-25/B5 provided ultra-high-resolution data for the past 100 years (1905-2005) and the IND-22/B4 core represented the past ~470 years (1530-2002) of Antarctic change. These ice records provided insights on the influence of solar forcing on Antarctic climate system as well as its linkages with the tropical and mid-latitude climatic modes like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The calculated surface air temperatures using these records showed a warming by 0.06-0.1 °C / decade, with greatly enhanced warming during the past several decades (~0.4 °C / decade). It is confirmed that the coastal areas of Dronning Maud Land are indeed warming and the trend is apparently enhancing in the recent decades.

Download Full-text

High-resolution climate projections for South Asia to inform climate impacts and adaptation studies in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and Mahanadi deltas

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.376 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 650 ◽

pp. 1499-1520 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Tamara Janes ◽

Fintan McGrath ◽

Ian Macadam ◽

Richard Jones

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

South Asia ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Adaptation Studies ◽

The Ganges

Download Full-text

What is the added value of using downscaled CMIP5 data for the study of climate extremes under climate change?

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12186 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Dimitri Defrance ◽

Thomas Noël ◽

Harilaos Loukos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

General Circulation ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Surface Wind ◽

Added Value ◽

Cumulative Distribution ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Geophysical Research ◽

Near Surface

In the beginning of this century, impacts studies due to climate change were carried out directly with the outputs of the general circulation models of the Atmosphere and the Ocean (AOGCM). However, these models had very low resolutions in the order of several degrees and the climate of some areas, such as monsoon regions, was poorly reproduced. These two disadvantages make it difficult to study the evolution of extremes. Recently, more impact studies are using outputs from multiple AOGCM models that are downscaled and unbiased. The ISIMIP consortium (https://www.isimip.org/) participates in the dissemination of this practice by proposing several AOGCM models with a resolution of 0.5&#176; X 0.5&#176;.In our study, a high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP5 experiment using the ERA5 reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.25&#176;x 0.25&#176;, comprises 21 climate models and includes 5 surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum), precipitation, and mean near-surface wind speed&#160; (No&#235;l et al. accepted). This dataset is obtained by using the quantile &#8211; quantile method Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDFt) (Vrac et al. 2012, 2016,, developed over&#160; 10 years to bias correct or downscale climate model output, and ERA5 land data as a reference . TWe propose in this communication to present the climate variability by the end of the century in terms of extreme climate indicators such as heat waves or heavy rainfall at the local/grid point level (e.g. city level). Particular attention will be paid to the magnitude of the changes as well as the associated uncertainty.&#160;ReferencesVrac, M., Drobinski, P., Merlo, A., Herrmann, M., Lavaysse, C., Li, L., & Somot, S. (2012). Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: uncertainty assessment.Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2769&#8211;2784.Vrac, M., No&#235;l, T., & Vautard, R. (2016). Bias correction of precipitation through Singularity Stochastic Removal: Because occurrences matter. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(10), 5237-5258.No&#235;l, T., Loukos, H., Defrance, D., Vrac, M., & Levavasseur, G. (2020). High-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with ERA5 reanalyses for climate change impact assessments. Data in Brief (accepted, https://doi.org/10.31223/X53W3F)

Download Full-text

Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections

Climatic Change ◽

10.1007/s10584-014-1291-0 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 128 (1-2) ◽

pp. 99-112 ◽

Cited By ~ 101

Author(s):

Isabelle Tobin ◽

Robert Vautard ◽

Irena Balog ◽

François-Marie Bréon ◽

Sonia Jerez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Wind Energy ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Projections

Download Full-text

Role of climate in the rise and fall of the Neo-Assyrian Empire

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.aax6656 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (11) ◽

pp. eaax6656 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ashish Sinha ◽

Gayatri Kathayat ◽

Harvey Weiss ◽

Hanying Li ◽

Hai Cheng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

High Resolution ◽

Seventh Century ◽

The Political ◽

Northern Iraq ◽

The Past ◽

Economic Collapse ◽

Wet Climate

Northern Iraq was the political and economic center of the Neo-Assyrian Empire (c. 912 to 609 BCE)—the largest and most powerful empire of its time. After more than two centuries of regional dominance, the Neo-Assyrian state plummeted from its zenith (c. 670 BCE) to complete political collapse (c. 615 to 609 BCE). Earlier explanations for the Assyrian collapse focused on the roles of internal politico-economic conflicts, territorial overextension, and military defeat. Here, we present a high-resolution and precisely dated speleothem record of climate change from the Kuna Ba cave in northern Iraq, which suggests that the empire’s rise occurred during a two-centuries-long interval of anomalously wet climate in the context of the past 4000 years, while megadroughts during the early-mid seventh century BCE, as severe as recent droughts in the region but lasting for decades, triggered a decline in Assyria’s agrarian productivity and thus contributed to its eventual political and economic collapse.

Download Full-text