scholarly journals Volcano impacts on climate and biogeochemistry in a coupled carbon-climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Rothenberg ◽  
N. Mahowald ◽  
K. Lindsay ◽  
S. C. Doney ◽  
J. K. Moore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Good Test ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Wrong Reason

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions induce a dynamical response in the climate system characterized by short-term, global reductions in both surface temperature and precipitation, as well as a response in biogeochemistry. The available observations of these responses to volcanic eruptions, such as to Pinatubo, provide a valuable method to compare against model simulations. Here, the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) reproduces the physical climate response to volcanic eruptions in a realistic way, as compared to direct observations from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The model biogeochemical response to eruptions is smaller in magnitude than observed, but because of the lack observations, it is not clear why or where the modeled carbon response is not strong enough. Comparison to other models suggests that this model response is much weaker in the tropical land; however the precipitation response in other models is not accurate, suggesting that other models could be getting the right response for the wrong reason. The underestimated carbon response in the model compared to observations could also be due to the ash and lava input of biogeochemical important species to the ocean, which are not included in the simulation. A statistically significant reduction in the simulated carbon dioxide growth rate is seen at the 90% level in the average of 12 large eruptions over the period 1870–2000, and the net uptake of carbon is primarily concentrated in the tropics with large spatial variability. In addition, a method for computing the volcanic response in model output without using a control ensemble is tested against a traditional methodology using two separate ensembles of runs; the method is found to produce similar results. These results suggest that not only is simulating volcanoes a good test of coupled carbon-climate models, but also that this test can be performed without a control simulation in cases where it is not practical to run separate ensembles with and without volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Volcano impacts on climate and biogeochemistry in a coupled carbon–climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Rothenberg ◽  
N. Mahowald ◽  
K. Lindsay ◽  
S. C. Doney ◽  
J. K. Moore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Good Test ◽  
Important Species ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Wrong Reason

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions induce a dynamical response in the climate system characterized by short-term global reductions in both surface temperature and precipitation, as well as a response in biogeochemistry. The available observations of these responses to volcanic eruptions, such as to Pinatubo, provide a valuable method to compare against model simulations. Here, the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) reproduces the physical climate response to volcanic eruptions in a realistic way, as compared to direct observations from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The model's biogeochemical response to eruptions is smaller in magnitude than observed, but because of the lack of observations, it is not clear why or where the modeled carbon response is not strong enough. Comparison to other models suggests that this model response is much weaker over tropical land; however, the precipitation response in other models is not accurate, suggesting that other models could be getting the right response for the wrong reason. The underestimated carbon response in the model compared to observations could also be due to the ash and lava input of biogeochemically important species to the ocean, which are not included in the simulation. A statistically significant reduction in the simulated carbon dioxide growth rate is seen at the 90% level in the average of 12 large eruptions over the period 1870–2000, and the net uptake of carbon is primarily concentrated in the tropics, with large spatial variability. In addition, a method for computing the volcanic response in model output without using a control ensemble is tested against a traditional methodology using two separate ensembles of runs; the method is found to produce similar results in the global average. These results suggest that not only is simulating volcanoes a good test of coupled carbon–climate models, but also that this test can be performed without a control simulation in cases where it is not practical to run separate ensembles with and without volcanic eruptions.

scholarly journals Influence of parallel computational uncertainty on simulations of the Coupled General Climate Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Song ◽  
F. Qiao ◽  
X. Lei ◽  
C. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Computational Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Climate

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact of the parallel computational uncertainty due to the round-off error on climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). A series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted and the analyses are focused on the Global and Nino3.4 average sea surface temperatures (SST). For the monthly time series, it is shown that the amplitude of the deviation induced by the parallel computational uncertainty is the same order as that of the climate system change. However, the ensemble mean method can reduce the influence and the ensemble member number of 15 is enough to ignore the uncertainty. For climatology, the influence can be ignored when the climatological mean is calculated by using more than 30-yr simulations. It is also found that the parallel computational uncertainty has no distinguishable effect on power spectrum analysis of climate variability such as ENSO. Finally, it is suggested that the influence of the parallel computational uncertainty on Coupled General Climate Models (CGCMs) can be a quality standard or a metric for developing CGCMs.

scholarly journals Influence of parallel computational uncertainty on simulations of the Coupled General Climate Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 3295-3312
Author(s):  
Z. Song ◽  
F. Qiao ◽  
X. Lei ◽  
C. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Ensemble Member ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Computational Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Climate

Abstract. This paper investigates the impact of the parallel computational uncertainty on climate simulations using the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). A series of sensitivity experiments have been conducted and the analyses are focused on the Global and Nino3.4 sea surface temperatures. It is shown that the amplitude of the deviation induced by the parallel computational uncertainty is the same order as that of the climate system change. However, the ensemble mean method can reduce the influence and the ensemble member number of 15 is enough to ignore simulated errors. For climatology, the influence can be ignored when the climatological mean is calculated by using more than 30-yr simulations. It is also found that the parallel computational uncertainty has no effect on the simulated periods of climate variability such as ENSO. Finally, it is suggested that the influence of the parallel computational uncertainty on Coupled General Climate Models (CGCMs) can be a quality standard or a metric for developing CGCMs.

scholarly journals Bayesian Design and Analysis for Superensemble-Based Climate Forecasting

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 1891-1910 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Mark Berliner ◽  
Yongku Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Climate Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Analysis ◽  
States Of Nature

Abstract The authors develop statistical data models to combine ensembles from multiple climate models in a fashion that accounts for uncertainty. This formulation enables treatment of model specific means, biases, and covariance matrices of the ensembles. In addition, the authors model the uncertainty in using computer model results to estimate true states of nature. Based on these models and principles of decision making in the presence of uncertainty, this paper poses the problem of superensemble experimental design in a quantitative fashion. Simple examples of the resulting optimal designs are presented. The authors also provide a Bayesian climate modeling and forecasting analysis. The climate variables of interest are Northern and Southern Hemispheric monthly averaged surface temperatures. A Bayesian hierarchical model for these quantities is constructed, including time-varying parameters that are modeled as random variables with distributions depending in part on atmospheric CO2 levels. This allows the authors to do Bayesian forecasting of temperatures under different Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). These forecasts are based on Bayesian posterior distributions of the unknowns conditional on observational data for 1882–2001 and climate system model output for 2002–97. The latter dataset is a small superensemble from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). After summarizing the results, the paper concludes with discussion of potential generalizations of the authors’ strategies.

scholarly journals Quantifying Agulhas Leakage in a High-Resolution Climate Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 6881-6892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Cheng ◽  
Dian Putrasahan ◽  
Lisa Beal ◽  
Ben Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The leakage of warm and salty water from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas system into the South Atlantic may play a critical role in climate variability by modulating the buoyancy fluxes associated with the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). New climate models, such as the Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5), are now able to resolve the Agulhas retroflection and constrain the inertially choked Agulhas leakage to more realistic values. These ocean-eddy-resolving climate models are poised to bolster understanding of the sensitivity and influence of Agulhas leakage in the coupled climate system. Here, a strategy is devised to quantify Agulhas leakage in CCSM3.5 by applying an offline Lagrangian particle-tracking approach, finding a mean interbasin transport of 11.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). It is shown that monthly mean outputs can be used to produce a reliable time series of Agulhas leakage variability on longer-than-seasonal time scales (correlation coefficient r = 0.88; p < 0.01) by comparing to a parallel simulation that archives daily mean fields every 5 days. The results show that Agulhas leakage variability at longer-than-seasonal time scales is less sensitive to the temporal resolution of the velocity fields than is the mean leakage transport.

scholarly journals Set-up of the PMIP3 paleoclimate experiments conducted using an Earth system model, MIROC-ESM

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Sueyoshi ◽  
R. Ohgaito ◽  
A. Yamamoto ◽  
M. O. Chikamoto ◽  
T. Hajima ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Good Test ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Paleoclimate experiments using contemporary climate models are an effective measure to evaluate climate models. In recent years, Earth system models (ESMs) were developed to investigate carbon cycle climate feedbacks, as well as to project the future climate. Paleoclimate events can be suitable benchmarks to evaluate ESMs. The variation in aerosols associated with the volcanic eruptions provide a clear signal in forcing, which can be a good test to check the response of a climate model to the radiation changes. The variations in atmospheric CO2 level or changes in ice sheet extent can be used for evaluation as well. Here we present implementations of the paleoclimate experiments proposed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5/Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) using MIROC-ESM, an ESM based on the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). In this paper, experimental settings and spin-up procedures of the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum, and the Last Millennium experiments are explained. The first two experiments are time slice experiments and the last one is a transient experiment. The complexity of the model requires various steps to correctly configure the experiments. Several basic outputs are also shown.

scholarly journals Simulation of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption using ECHAM5 – Part 1: Sensitivity to the modes of atmospheric circulation and boundary conditions

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 9209-9238
Author(s):  
M. A. Thomas ◽  
C. Timmreck ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
H.-F. Graf ◽  
G. Stenchikov
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption

Abstract. Large volcanic eruptions and their subsequent climate responses are relatively short-lived perturbations to the climate system. They provide an excellent opportunity to understand the response of the climate system to a global radiative forcing and to assess the ability of our climate models to simulate such large perturbations. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in Philippines in June 1991 was one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in the 20th century and this well observed eruption can serve as an important case study to understand the subsequent weather and climate changes. In this paper, the most comprehensive simulations to date of the climate impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption are carried out with prescribed volcanic aerosols including observed SSTs, QBO and volcanically induced ozone anomalies. This is also the first attempt to include all the known factors for the simulation of such an experiment. Here, the climate response is evaluated under different boundary conditions including one at a time, thereby, investigating the radiative and dynamical responses to individual and combined forcings by observed SSTs, QBO and volcanic effects. Two ensembles of ten members each, for unperturbed and volcanically perturbed conditions were carried out using the middle atmosphere configuration of ECHAM5 model. Our results show that the pure aerosol response in lower stratospheric temperature is insensitive to the boundary conditions in the tropics and does not show some observed features which results from the boundary conditions. To simulate realistically the lower stratospheric temperature response, one must include all the known factors. The pure QBO and ocean responses are simulated consistent with earlier studies. The dynamical response manifested as the winter warming pattern is not simulated in the ensemble mean of the experiments. Our analysis also shows that the response to El Niño conditions is very strong in the model and that it partially masks the effects due to volcanic forcing.

scholarly journals Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1943-1954 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Feldman ◽  
W. D. Collins ◽  
J. L. Paige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Measurements ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm−1 at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

scholarly journals Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1645-1662
Author(s):  
Alan Huston ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Erin Pettit ◽  
Nathan J. Steiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.

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