scholarly journals GPRChinaTemp1km: a high-resolution monthly air temperature dataset for China (1951–2020) based on machine learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian He ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Kaiwen Li ◽  
Ziyu Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Abstract. An accurate spatially continuous air temperature dataset is crucial for multiple applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Existing spatial interpolation methods have relatively low accuracy and the resolution of available long-term gridded products of air temperature for China is coarse. Point observations from meteorological stations can provide long-term air temperature data series but cannot represent spatially continuous information. Here, we devised a method for spatial interpolation of air temperature data from meteorological stations based on powerful machine learning tools. First, to determine the optimal method for interpolation of air temperature data, we employed three machine learning models: random forest, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression. Comparison of the mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and residuals revealed that Gaussian process regression had high accuracy and clearly outperformed the other two models regarding interpolation of monthly maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures. The machine learning methods were compared with three traditional methods used frequently for spatial interpolation: inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and ANUSPLIN. Results showed that the Gaussian process regression model had higher accuracy and greater robustness than the traditional methods regarding interpolation of monthly maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures in each month. Comparison with the TerraClimate, FLDAS, and ERA5 datasets revealed that the accuracy of the temperature data generated using the Gaussian process regression model was higher. Finally, using the Gaussian process regression method, we produced a long-term (January 1951 to December 2020) gridded monthly air temperature dataset with 1 km resolution and high accuracy for China, which we named GPRChinaTemp1km. The dataset consists of three variables: monthly mean air temperature, monthly maximum air temperature, and monthly minimum air temperature. The obtained GPRChinaTemp1km data were used to analyse the spatiotemporal variations of air temperature using Theil–Sen median trend analysis in combination with the Mann–Kendall test. It was found that the monthly mean and minimum air temperatures across China were characterized by a significant trend of increase in each month, whereas monthly maximum air temperature showed a more spatially heterogeneous pattern with significant increase, non-significant increase, and non-significant decrease. The GPRChinaTemp1km dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5112122 (He et al., 2021a) for monthly maximum air temperature, at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5111989 (He et al., 2021b) for monthly mean air temperature and at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5112232 (He et al., 2021c) for monthly minimum air temperature.

scholarly journals GPRChinaTemp1km: a high-resolution monthly air temperature dataset for China (1951–2020) based on machine learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian He ◽  
Ming Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Kaiwen Li ◽  
Ziyu Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Spatial Interpolation ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Abstract. An accurate spatially continuous air temperature dataset is crucial for multiple applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Existing spatial interpolation methods have relatively low accuracy and the resolution of available long-term gridded products of air temperature for China is coarse. Point observations from meteorological stations can provide long-term air temperature data series but cannot represent spatially continuous information. Here, we devised a method for spatial interpolation of air temperature data from meteorological stations based on powerful machine learning tools. First, to determine the optimal method for interpolation of air temperature data, we employed three machine learning models: random forest, support vector machine, and Gaussian process regression. Comparison of the mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of determination, and residuals revealed that Gaussian process regression had high accuracy and clearly outperformed the other two models regarding interpolation of monthly maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures. The machine learning methods were compared with three traditional methods used frequently for spatial interpolation: inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and ANUSPLIN. Results showed that the Gaussian process regression model had higher accuracy and greater robustness than the traditional methods regarding interpolation of monthly maximum, minimum, and mean air temperatures in each month. Comparison with the TerraClimate, FLDAS, and ERA5 datasets revealed that the accuracy of the temperature data generated using the Gaussian process regression model was higher. Finally, using the Gaussian process regression method, we produced a long-term (January 1951 to December 2020) gridded monthly air temperature dataset with 1 km resolution and high accuracy for China, which we named GPRChinaTemp1km. The dataset consists of three variables: monthly mean air temperature, monthly maximum air temperature, and monthly minimum air temperature. The obtained GPRChinaTemp1km data were used to analyse the spatiotemporal variations of air temperature using Theil–Sen median trend analysis in combination with the Mann–Kendall test. It was found that the monthly mean and minimum air temperatures across China were characterized by a significant trend of increase in each month, whereas monthly maximum air temperature showed a more spatially heterogeneous pattern with significant increase, non-significant increase, and non-significant decrease. The GPRChinaTemp1km dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5112122 (He et al., 2021a) for monthly maximum air temperature, at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5111989 (He et al., 2021b) for monthly mean air temperature and at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5112232 (He et al., 2021c) for monthly minimum air temperature.

Spatial and temporal variation of surface air temperature at different altitude zone in recent 30 years over Nepal

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-428
Author(s):  
JANAK LAL NAYAVA ◽  
SUNIL ADHIKARY ◽  
OM RATNA BAJRACHARYA
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Mountain Regions ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Long Term Trend

This paper investigates long term (30 yrs) altitudinal variations of surface air temperatures based on air temperature data of countrywide scattered 22 stations (15 synoptic and 7 climate stations) in Nepal. Several researchers have reported that rate of air temperature rise (long term trend of atmospheric warming) in Nepal is highest in the Himalayan region (~ 3500 m asl or higher) compared to the Hills and Terai regions. Contrary to the results of previous researchers, however this study found that the increment of annual mean temperature is much higher in the Hills (1000 to 2000 m asl) than in the Terai and Mountain Regions. The temperature lapse rate in a wide altitudinal range of Nepal (70 to 5050 m asl) is -5.65 °C km-1. Warming rates in Terai and Trans-Himalayas (Jomsom) are 0.024 and 0.029 °C/year respectively.  

On the dynamics of distribution of the American White Butterfly, Hyphantria cunea Drury, 1973 (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), in Ukraine regarding the annual minimal air temperatures

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-57
Author(s):  
S. N. Shumov
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Complete Elimination ◽  
Hyphantria Cunea ◽  
White American ◽  
Gis Technologies ◽  
Data Analyses ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Negative Temperatures

The spatial analysis of distribution and quantity of Hyphantria cunea Drury, 1973 across Ukraine since 1952 till 2016 regarding the values of annual absolute temperatures of ground air is performed using the Gis-technologies. The long-term pest dissemination data (Annual reports…, 1951–1985; Surveys of the distribution of quarantine pests ..., 1986–2017) and meteorological information (Meteorological Yearbooks of air temperature the surface layer of the atmosphere in Ukraine for the period 1951-2016; Branch State of the Hydrometeorological Service at the Central Geophysical Observatory of the Ministry for Emergencies) were used in the present research. The values of boundary negative temperatures of winter diapause of Hyphantria cunea, that unable the development of species’ subsequent generation, are received. Data analyses suggests almost complete elimination of winter diapausing individuals of White American Butterfly (especially pupae) under the air temperature of −32°С. Because of arising questions on the time of action of absolute minimal air temperatures, it is necessary to ascertain the boundary negative temperatures of winter diapause for White American Butterfly. It is also necessary to perform the more detailed research of a corresponding biological material with application to the freezing technics, giving temperature up to −50°С, with the subsequent analysis of the received results by the punched-analysis.

Exchange Spin Coupling from Gaussian Process Regression

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Philipp Bahlke ◽  
Natnael Mogos ◽  
Jonny Proppe ◽  
Carmen Herrmann
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Molecular Magnets ◽  
Molecular Structures ◽  
Spin Coupling ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

Heisenberg exchange spin coupling between metal centers is essential for describing and understanding the electronic structure of many molecular catalysts, metalloenzymes, and molecular magnets for potential application in information technology. We explore the machine-learnability of exchange spin coupling, which has not been studied yet. We employ Gaussian process regression since it can potentially deal with small training sets (as likely associated with the rather complex molecular structures required for exploring spin coupling) and since it provides uncertainty estimates (“error bars”) along with predicted values. We compare a range of descriptors and kernels for 257 small dicopper complexes and find that a simple descriptor based on chemical intuition, consisting only of copper-bridge angles and copper-copper distances, clearly outperforms several more sophisticated descriptors when it comes to extrapolating towards larger experimentally relevant complexes. Exchange spin coupling is similarly easy to learn as the polarizability, while learning dipole moments is much harder. The strength of the sophisticated descriptors lies in their ability to linearize structure-property relationships, to the point that a simple linear ridge regression performs just as well as the kernel-based machine-learning model for our small dicopper data set. The superior extrapolation performance of the simple descriptor is unique to exchange spin coupling, reinforcing the crucial role of choosing a suitable descriptor, and highlighting the interesting question of the role of chemical intuition vs. systematic or automated selection of features for machine learning in chemistry and material science.

scholarly journals Increase in Air Temperature in The Region of South Sumatra Province as the Indicator of Global Warming and the Effect on Transpiration of Lansium domesticum Corr.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari Sugiarto ◽  
Hanifa Marisa ◽  
Sarno
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Transpiration Rate ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Randomized Design ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature ◽  
Lansium Domesticum ◽  
Minimum Air Temperature

Abstract Global warming is one of biggest problems faced in the 21st century. One of the impacts of global warming is that it can affect the transpiration rate of plants that °Ccur. This study purpose to see how much increase in air temperature that occurred in the region of South Sumatra Province and to know the effect of increase in ari temperature in the region of South Sumatra Province on transpiration rate of Lansium domesticum Corr. This study used a complete randomized design with 9 treatments (22.9 °C, 23.6 °C, 24.6 °C, 26.3 °C, 27 °C, 27.8 °C, 31.7 °C, 32.5 °C, and 32.9 °C) and 3 replications. Air temperature data as secondary data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (MCGA) Palembang Climatology Station in South Sumatra Province. The measurement of transpiration rate is done by modified potometer method with additional glass box. The data obtained are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Transpiration rate (mm3/g plant/hour) at temperture 22.9 °C = 4.37, 23.6 °C = 7.03, 24.6 °C = 8.03, 26.3 °C = 10.11, 27 °C = 13.13, 27.8 °C = 17.87, 31.7 °C = 23.21, 32.5 °C= 25.45 and 32.9 °C= 27.24. At the minimum air temperature in the region of South Sumatra Province there is increase in air temperature of 1.5 °C, average daily air temperature increase 1.3 °C and maximum air temperature increase 1.2 °C.

scholarly journals Application of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) in Gas Hydrate Mitigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 88 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-37
Author(s):  
Sachin Dev Suresh ◽  
Ali Qasim ◽  
Bhajan Lal ◽  
Syed Muhammad Imran ◽  
Khor Siak Foo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gaussian Process ◽  
Gas Hydrate ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Hydrate Formation ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gas Hydrate Formation ◽  
Testing Data

The production of oil and natural gas contributes to a significant amount of revenue generation in Malaysia thereby strengthening the country’s economy. The flow assurance industry is faced with impediments during smooth operation of the transmission pipeline in which gas hydrate formation is the most important. It affects the normal operation of the pipeline by plugging it. Under high pressure and low temperature conditions, gas hydrate is a crystalline structure consisting of a network of hydrogen bonds between host molecules of water and guest molecules of the incoming gases. Industry uses different types of chemical inhibitors in pipeline to suppress hydrate formation. To overcome this problem, machine learning algorithm has been introduced as part of risk management strategies. The objective of this paper is to utilize Machine Learning (ML) model which is Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). GPR is a new approach being applied to mitigate the growth of gas hydrate. The input parameters used are concentration and pressure of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and Methane (CH4) gas hydrates whereas the output parameter is the Average Depression Temperature (ADT). The values for the parameter are taken from available data sets that enable GPR to predict the results accurately in terms of Coefficient of Determination, R2 and Mean Squared Error, MSE. The outcome from the research showed that GPR model provided with highest R2 value for training and testing data of 97.25% and 96.71%, respectively. MSE value for GPR was also found to be lowest for training and testing data of 0.019 and 0.023, respectively.

scholarly journals Prediction Skill of Extended Range 2-m Maximum Air Temperature Probabilistic Forecasts Using Machine Learning Post-Processing Methods

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 823
Author(s):  
Ting Peng ◽  
Xiefei Zhi ◽  
Yan Ji ◽  
Luying Ji ◽  
Ye Tian
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Processing Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
The Neural Networks ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

The extended range temperature prediction is of great importance for public health, energy and agriculture. The two machine learning methods, namely, the neural networks and natural gradient boosting (NGBoost), are applied to improve the prediction skills of the 2-m maximum air temperature with lead times of 1–35 days over East Asia based on the Environmental Modeling Center, Global Ensemble Forecast System (EMC-GEFS), under the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method is conducted as the benchmark for comparison. The results show that all the post-processing methods can efficiently reduce the prediction biases and uncertainties, especially in the lead week 1–2. The two machine learning methods outperform EMOS by approximately 0.2 in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) overall. The neural networks and NGBoost behave as the best models in more than 90% of the study area over the validation period. In our study, CRPS, which is not a common loss function in machine learning, is introduced to make probabilistic forecasting possible for traditional neural networks. Moreover, we extend the NGBoost model to atmospheric sciences of probabilistic temperature forecasting which obtains satisfying performances.

CORRELATION COMMUNICATION BETWEEN METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AT EXTREME VALUES OF MAXIMUM AIR TEMPERATURES

2020 ◽  
pp. 101-112
Author(s):  
S.V. Savchuk ◽  
V.E. Timofeev ◽  
O.A. Shcheglov ◽  
V.A. Artemenko ◽  
I.L. Kozlenko
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Maximum Daily Temperature ◽  
The North ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

The object of the study is the maximum daily air temperature during the months of the year over 1991-2016 by the data of 186 meteorological stations of Ukraine. Extreme values of the maximum daily temperature equal to or exceeded their 95th (Tmax95p and above, ºС) percentile were taken as extreme. The article sets the dates (137 cases) of extreme values of maximum air temperature on more than 60 % of the territory. For these dates, 13 meteorological parameters were selected: average, minimum, and maximum air temperatures; average, minimum and maximum relative humidity; station and sea-level pressure; average, maximum (from 8 synoptic hours) wind speed; rainfall; height of snow cover. The purpose of this work is to determine the correlation coefficient (K), in particular, statistically significant (K≤-0.6, K≥0.6), on these dates between selected meteorological parameters at 186 meteorological stations of Ukraine for 1991-2013. The density of the cases of statistically significant dependence between the meteorological parameters in extremely warm days in separate seasons is determined. In extremely warm days, meteorological parameters and areas with statistically significant correlations at K≤-0.6 were detected: T and F (focally in southern and some western regions with significant density) − in winter; T and F (with the highest density ubiquitous or almost ubiquitous), P and V (in a large number of regions, usually west or right-bank, but with less frequency) − in the transition seasons, and in the autumn between − T and F (in the south with smaller density) and P and F (in some areas of the north, northwest, west, lower east). In all seasons, such a correlation between other meteorological parameters had a focal distribution, usually with a smaller density. In these days, a focal distribution with a small frequency of dependencies at K≥0.6 was found between the meteorological parameters detected (F and V in transition seasons, T and F in winter), except for similar ones. However, such dependence is observed between T and V in some regions in winter and autumn and in some areas of south, southeast, east with a smaller density. The study of the maximum daily temperature is relevant, because from the level of natural hydrometeorological phenomena it is accompanied by dangerous phenomena, negatively affecting the weather dependent industries.

scholarly journals Aumento das temperaturas extremas na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e o desvio ocasionado durante um evento de El Niño intenso (Thermal change in the city of Rio de Janeiro and the deviation caused during an intense El Niño event)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1291
Author(s):  
Henderson Silva Wanderley ◽  
Ronabson Cardoso Fernandes ◽  
André Luiz De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
The City ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

O processo de urbanização tem o potencial de alterar a característica térmica e aerodinâmica da superfície dos grandes centros urbanos, possibilitando o aumento da temperatura do ar. No entanto, a correlação da intensificação da temperatura do ar em áreas urbanas em resposta a um evento extremo de El Niño é escassa, principalmente no que se refere à cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo visa quantificar as mudanças ocorridas na temperatura do ar (máxima e mínima) na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e o desvio ocasionado às temperaturas extremas durante um evento de El Niño intenso. Os dados de temperatura do ar utilizados referem-se às normais climatológicas nos períodos climatológicos de 1961-1990 e 1980-2010, comparados entre si, e posteriormente, comparou-se as normais climatológicas do período de 1980-2010 com as do El Niño intenso de 2015-2016. Para a análise, dados de temperatura mínima e máxima do ar em uma escala mensal foram comparados. As médias mensais das temperaturas em análise foram submetidas ao ajuste do coeficiente de correlação de Pearson, ao teste t de Student e ao teste de Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Os resultados mostraram um aumento médio na temperatura do ar mínima (máxima) de +0,66 °C e +0,73 °C (+1,21 °C e +0,90 °C), respectivamente entre os períodos climatológicos e o último período climatológico com o evento El Niño intenso, entretanto, sem diferença estatística para o aumento da média e de sua distribuição.   A B S T R A C TUrbanization process has potential to change the thermal and aerodynamic characteristics of large urban centers surface, allowing the increase of air temperature. However, correlation of air temperature intensification in urban areas in response to an extreme event of El Niño is scarce, especially in relation to the city of Rio de Janeiro. Thus, the objective of this study is to quantify the changes occurred in the air temperature (maximum and minimum) in the city of Rio de Janeiro and the deviation caused to extreme temperatures during an intense event of El Niño. Data of air temperature data refer to the climatological normals in the periods of 1961-1990 and 1980-2010, and intense event of El Niño occurred in 2015-2016. For the analysis, minimum and maximum air temperature data on a monthly scale were compared. Monthly mean values of the air temperature under analysis were adjusted to the Pearson correlation coefficient, Student's t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed a mean increase in minimum (maximum) air temperature of +0.66 °C and +0.73 °C (+1.21 °C and +0.90 °C), respectively between the climatological periods and the last climatological period with the intense event of El Niño, however, with no statistical difference for the increase of the mean and its distribution.Keywords: Urban climate, ENSO, air temperature.

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