scholarly journals Marine meteorological forecasts for coastal ocean users – perceptions, usability and uptake

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-381
Author(s):  
Christo Rautenbach ◽  
Berill Blair
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Coastal Ocean ◽  
Cultural Consensus ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Consensus Analysis ◽  
Research Questions

Abstract. The present study aims to address a disconnect between science and the public in the form of a potential misalignment in the supply and demand of information known as the usability gap. In this case, we explore the salience of marine meteorological (metocean) information as perceived by users in two Southern Hemisphere countries: South Africa and New Zealand. Here, the focus is not only on the perceptions, usability and uptake of extreme event forecasts but rather focused on general, routine forecast engagement. The research was conducted by means of a survey, designed around three research questions. The research questions covered topics ranging from forecasting tool ergonomics, accuracy and consistency, usability, institutional reputation, and uncertainties related to climate change (to name but a few). The online questionnaire was widely distributed to include both recreational and commercial users. The study focused on identifying potential decision-making cultures that uniquely impact coastal ocean users' information needs. Cultural consensus analysis (CCA) was used to investigate shared understandings and variations in perceptions within the total group of respondents as well as in sectoral and country-based subgroups. We found varying degrees of consensus in the whole group (participants from both countries and all sectors combined) versus different subgroups of users. All participants taken together exhibited an overall moderate cultural consensus regarding the issues presented but with some variations in perspectives at the country-level, suggesting potential subcultures. Analysing national and sectoral subgroups separately, we found the most coherent cultural consensus in the South African users' cohort, with strong agreement regardless of sectoral affiliation. New Zealand's commercial users' cohort had the weakest agreement with all other subgroups. We discuss the implications from our findings on important factors in service uptake and therefore on the production of salient forecasts. Several priorities for science-based forecasts in the future are also reflected on, considering anticipated climate change impacts. We conclude by proposing a conceptual diagram to highlight the important interplay between forecast product co-development and scientific accuracy/consistency.

scholarly journals Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users – Perceptions, Usability and Uptake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christo Rautenbach ◽  
Berill Blair
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Event ◽  
Shared Knowledge ◽  
Cultural Consensus ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Consensus Analysis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Cultural Consensus Analysis ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Institutional Reputation

Abstract. The present study aims to address a proposed disconnect between science and the public. In this case, marine meteorological (metocean) information and the users of these data. Here, the focus is not only on the perceptions, usability and uptake of extreme event forecasts but rather focused on general, everyday situations. The research was conducted by means of a survey, designed around four research questions. Each question was then populated with propositions that were the guideline for the questionnaire. The research questions covered topics ranging from forecasting tool ergonomics, accuracy and consistency, usability, institutional reputation and uncertainties related to Climate Change (to name but a few). The survey was conducted in two southern hemisphere countries, South Africa and New Zealand. The online questionnaire was widely distributed to include both recreational and commercial users. Cultural Consensus Analysis (CCA) was used to investigate knowledge-based agreements within the total group of respondents as well as sectoral and community subgroups. The existence of subgroups within the communities (e.g. recreational and commercial) was also established. The general shared knowledge results are discussed together with user group demographic statistics. A comprehensive summery of all four research questions, with all the resulting propositions are also provide. The percentage of each subgroup’s agreement with the knowledge-based score (CCA model derived) is also provided with the beforementioned. Finally, a conceptual diagram is proposed to highlight the important interplay between forecast product co-development and scientific accuracy/consistency.

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Tavakolifar ◽  
Ebrahim Shahghasemi ◽  
Sara Nazif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Weather Typing

Climate change has impacted all phenomena in the hydrologic cycle, especially extreme events. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to investigate climate change impacts but because of their low resolution, downscaling methods are developed to provide data with high enough resolution for regional studies from GCM outputs. The performance of rainfall downscaling methods is commonly acceptable in preserving average characteristics, but they do not preserve the extreme event characteristics especially rainfall amount and distribution. In this study, a novel downscaling method called synoptic statistical downscaling model is proposed for daily precipitation downscaling with an emphasis on extreme event characteristics preservation. The proposed model is applied to a region located in central Iran. The results show that the developed model can downscale all percentiles of precipitation events with an acceptable performance and there is no assumption about the similarity of future rainfall data with the historical observations. The outputs of CCSM4 GCM for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to investigate the climate change impacts in the study region. The results show 40% and 30% increase in the number of extreme rainfall events under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

scholarly journals Integrated Modeling of Water Supply and Demand Under Climate Change Impacts and Management Options in Tributary Basin of Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2462
Author(s):  
Tharo Touch ◽  
Chantha Oeurng ◽  
Yanan Jiang ◽  
Ali Mokhtar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Integrated Modeling ◽  
Supply Management ◽  
Management Options ◽  
The Future

An integrated modeling approach analyzing water demand and supply balances under management options in a river basin is essential for the management and adaptive measures of water resources in the future. This study evaluated the impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime by predicting the change in both monthly and seasonal streamflow, and identified water supply and demand relations under supply management options and environmental flow maintenance. To reach a better understanding of the consequences of possible climate change scenarios and adaptive management options on water supply, an integrated modeling approach was conducted by using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and water evaluation and planning model (WEAP). Future scenarios were developed for the future period: 2060s (2051–2070), using an ensemble of three general circulation model (GCM) simulations: GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R-CC, and IPSL-CM5A-MR, driven by the climate projection for representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 6.0 (medium emission scenario). The results indicated that, firstly, the future streamflow will decrease, resulting in a decline of future water availability. Secondly, water supply under natural flow conditions would support 46,167 ha of irrigation schemes and the water shortages will be more noticeable when environmental flow maintenance was considered. The study concludes that reservoir construction would be necessary for agriculture mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Furthermore, the water resources management options considering both supply and demand management are more effective and useful than supply management only, particularly in dealing with climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Coastal Ocean Information Needs

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 324-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Malone ◽  
M. Davidson ◽  
P. DiGiacomo ◽  
E. Gonçalves ◽  
T. Knap ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Coastal Ocean

A Hydro-Economic Modeling Framework for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Thailand with Multi-Sectoral Linkages and Multi-Scale Vulnerability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aksara Putthividhya ◽  
Wimolpat Bumbudsanpharoke Khamkanya ◽  
Somkiat Prajamwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Modeling ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Sectoral Linkages ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Recent research has demonstrated the multidimensional and multi-sectoral impacts of climate change, evidencing the need to develop national and sub-national integrated tools and policies for the analysis of impacts and adaptation, especially central to local policy recommendation and implementation. This framework combines an area-based economic optimization model with the hydrological model WEAP, and represents the socio-economic, agronomic, and hydrologic systems in a spatially explicit manner covering dimensions and scales relevant to downscaled climate change impacts.  Simulated scenarios are setup to incorporate climate scenario, prior-historic dependence to adaptation conformity, and two policy-based adaptation scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that climate change may impact severely in rain-fed agricultural area and also to irrigation systems reducing water availability and security and crop yields, and increasing in more efficient irrigation water allocation.  The adaptation strategies analysis based on socio-economic, agronomic, and hydrologic dimensions capitalizes the key role of Thailand supply- and demand-side management policy in facilitating adaptation. The under developing framework is currently anticipated to be a useful tool for supporting water resources and climate change policy making.  It can contribute to improve understanding on potential impacts of climate change, multi-sectoral linkages, multi-scale vulnerability, and adaptation programs.   </p>

scholarly journals Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Friederike Otto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Event Attribution

AbstractThe last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.

scholarly journals Measuring perceptions of climate change in northern Alaska: pairing ethnography with cultural consensus analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Carothers ◽  
Caroline Brown ◽  
Katie J. Moerlein ◽  
J. Andrés López ◽  
David B. Andersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Consensus ◽  
Consensus Analysis ◽  
Cultural Consensus Analysis ◽  
Northern Alaska

Flood hazard estimation and climate change: impacts and uncertainties for Irish catchments using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadush Meresa ◽  
Conor Murphy ◽  
Rowan Fealy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>In the coming decades, climate change will likely become a complex issue affecting hydrological regimes and flood hazard conditions. According to the IPCC reports, significant changes in atmospheric temperature, precipitation, humidity, and circulation are expected which may lead to extreme events including flood, droughts, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and more intense cyclones. Although the effects of climate change on flood hazard indices is subject to large uncertainty, the evaluation of high-flows plays a crucial role in flood risk planning and extreme event management. With the advent of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), flood managers are interested to know how changes in catchment flood risk are expected to alter relative to previous assessments. Here we examine catchment based projected changes in flood quantiles and extreme high flow events for Irish catchments, selected to be representative of the range of hydrological conditions on the island. Conceptual hydrological models, together with different downscaling techniques are used to examine changes in flood risk projected from the CMIP6 archive for mid and end of century. Results will inform the range of plausible changes expected for policy relevant flood indices, the sensitivity of findings to use of different climate model ensembles and inform the tailoring of adaptation plans to account for the new generation of climate model outputs.</p>

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