Recent warming reverses forty-year decline in Catastrophic lake drainage and hastens Gradual lake drainage across northern Alaska

Lakes represent as much as ~25% of the total land surface area in lowland permafrost regions. Though decreasing lake area has become a widespread phenomenon in permafrost regions, our ability to forecast future patterns of lake drainage spanning gradients of space and time remain limited. Here, we modeled the drivers of gradual (steady declining lake area) and catastrophic (temporally abrupt decrease in lake area) lake drainage using 45 years of Landsat observations (i.e., 1975-2019) across 32,690 lakes spanning climate and environmental gradients across northern Alaska. We mapped lake area using supervised support vector machine classifiers and object based image analyses using five-year Landsat image composites spanning ~388,968 km2. Drivers of lake drainage were determined with boosted regression tree (BRT) models, using both static (e.g., lake morphology, proximity to drainage gradient) and dynamic predictor variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, wildfire). Over the past 45 years, gradual drainage decreased lake area between 10-16%, but rates varied over time as the 1990s recorded the highest rates of gradual lake area losses associated with warm periods. Interestingly, the number of catastrophically drained lakes progressively decreased at a rate of ~37% decade-1 from 1975-1979 (102 to 273 lakes draining year-1) to 2010-2014 (3 to 8 lakes draining year-1). However this 40 year negative trend was reversed during the most recent time-period (2015-2019), with observations of catastrophic drainage among the highest on record (i.e., 100 to 250 lakes draining year-1), the majority of which occurred in northwestern Alaska. Gradual drainage processes were driven by lake morphology, summer air and lake temperature, snow cover, active layer depth, and the thermokarst lake settlement index (R2 adj=0.42, CV=0.35, p<0.0001), whereas, catastrophic drainage was driven by the thawing season length, total precipitation, permafrost thickness, and lake temperature (R2 adj=0.75, CV=0.67, p<0.0001). Models forecast a continued decline in lake area across northern Alaska by 15 to 21% by 2050. However these estimates are conservative, as the anticipated amplitude of future climate change were well-beyond historical variability and thus insufficient to forecast abrupt “catastrophic” drainage processes. Results highlight the urgency to understand the potential ecological responses and feedbacks linked with ongoing Arctic landscape reorganization.

A Quantitative Graph-Based Approach to Monitoring Ice-Wedge Trough Dynamics in Polygonal Permafrost Landscapes

In response to increasing Arctic temperatures, ice-rich permafrost landscapes are undergoing rapid changes. In permafrost lowlands, polygonal ice wedges are especially prone to degradation. Melting of ice wedges results in deepening troughs and the transition from low-centered to high-centered ice-wedge polygons. This process has important implications for surface hydrology, as the connectivity of such troughs determines the rate of drainage for these lowland landscapes. In this study, we present a comprehensive, modular, and highly automated workflow to extract, to represent, and to analyze remotely sensed ice-wedge polygonal trough networks as a graph (i.e., network structure). With computer vision methods, we efficiently extract the trough locations as well as their geomorphometric information on trough depth and width from high-resolution digital elevation models and link these data within the graph. Further, we present and discuss the benefits of graph analysis algorithms for characterizing the erosional development of such thaw-affected landscapes. Based on our graph analysis, we show how thaw subsidence has progressed between 2009 and 2019 following burning at the Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska, USA. We observed a considerable increase in the number of discernible troughs within the study area, while simultaneously the number of disconnected networks decreased from 54 small networks in 2009 to only six considerably larger disconnected networks in 2019. On average, the width of the troughs has increased by 13.86%, while the average depth has slightly decreased by 10.31%. Overall, our new automated approach allows for monitoring ice-wedge dynamics in unprecedented spatial detail, while simultaneously reducing the data to quantifiable geometric measures and spatial relationships.

Unpiloted Aerial Vehicle Retrieval of Snow Depth Over Freshwater Lake Ice Using Structure From Motion

The presence and thickness of snow overlying lake ice affects both the timing of melt and ice-free conditions, can contribute to overall ice thickness through its insulative capacity, and fosters the development of variable ice types. The use of UAVs to retrieve snow depths with high spatial resolution is necessary for the next generation of ultra-fine hydrological models, as the direct contribution of water from snow on lake ice is unknown. Such information is critical to the understanding of the physical processes of snow redistribution and capture in catchments on small lakes in the Arctic, which has been historically estimated from its relationship to terrestrial snowpack properties. In this study, we use a quad-copter UAV and SfM principles to retrieve and map snow depth at the winter maximum at high resolution over a the freshwater West Twin Lake on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska. The accuracy of the snow depth retrievals is assessed using in-situ observations (n = 1,044), applying corrections to account for the freeboard of floating ice. The average snow depth from in-situ observations was used calculate a correction factor based on the freeboard of the ice to retrieve snow depth from UAV acquisitions (RMSE = 0.06 and 0.07 m for two transects on the lake. The retrieved snow depth map exhibits drift structures that have height deviations with a root mean square (RMS) of 0.08 m (correlation length = 13.8 m) for a transect on the west side of the lake, and an RMS of 0.07 m (correlation length = 18.7 m) on the east. Snow drifts present on the lake also correspond to previous investigations regarding the variability of snow on lakes, with a periodicity (separation) of 20 and 16 m for the west and east side of the lake, respectively. This study represents the first retrieval of snow depth on a frozen lake surface from a UAV using photogrammetry, and promotes the potential for high-resolution snow depth retrieval on small ponds and lakes that comprise a significant portion of landcover in Arctic environments.

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

Start of the Green Season and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in Alaska’s Arctic National Parks

Daily Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from the MODIS Aqua and Terra satellites were compared with on-the-ground camera observations at five locations in northern Alaska. Over half of the spring rise in NDVI was due to the transition from the snow-covered landscape to the snow-free surface prior to the deciduous leaf-out. In the fall after the green season, NDVI fluctuated between an intermediate level representing senesced vegetation and lower values representing clouds and intermittent snow, and then dropped to constant low levels after establishment of the permanent winter snow cover. The NDVI value of snow-free surfaces after fall leaf senescence was estimated from multi-year data using a 90th percentile smoothing spline curve fit to a plot of daily NDVI values vs. ordinal date. This curve typically showed a flat region of intermediate NDVI values in the fall that represent cloud- and snow-free days with senesced vegetation. This “fall plateau” was readily identified in a large systematic sample of MODIS NDVI values across the study area, in typical tundra, shrub, and boreal forest environments. The NDVI level of the fall plateau can be extrapolated to the spring rising leg of the annual NDVI curve to approximate the true start of green season.