scholarly journals Land surface model influence on the simulated climatologies of temperature and precipitation extremes in the WRF v3.9 model over North America

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5345-5366
Author(s):  
Almudena García-García ◽  
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽  
Hugo Beltrami ◽  
Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in regional and global climate models are of major importance for the study of climate change impacts. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations yield a broad inter-model range of intensity, duration and frequency of these extremes. Here, we present a modeling experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to determine the influence of the land surface model (LSM) component on uncertainties associated with extreme events. First, we analyze land–atmosphere interactions within four simulations performed by the WRF model from 1980 to 2012 over North America, using three different LSMs. Results show LSM-dependent differences at regional scales in the frequency of occurrence of events when surface conditions are altered by atmospheric forcing or land processes. The inter-model range of extreme statistics across the WRF simulations is large, particularly for indices related to the intensity and duration of temperature and precipitation extremes. Our results show that the WRF simulation of the climatology of heat extremes can be 5 ∘C warmer and 6 d longer depending on the employed LSM component, and similarly for cold extremes and heavy precipitation events. Areas showing large uncertainty in WRF-simulated extreme events are also identified in a model ensemble from three different regional climate model (RCM) simulations participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, revealing the implications of these results for other model ensembles. Thus, studies based on multi-model ensembles and reanalyses should include a variety of LSM configurations to account for the uncertainty arising from this model component or to test the performance of the selected LSM component before running the whole simulation. This study illustrates the importance of the LSM choice in climate simulations, supporting the development of new modeling studies using different LSM components to understand inter-model differences in simulating extreme temperature and precipitation events, which in turn will help to reduce uncertainties in climate model projections.

Land Surface Model influence on the simulated climatologies of extreme temperature and precipitation events within the WRF model over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almudena García-García ◽  
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽  
Hugo Beltrami ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p class="western"><span>The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in climate models are of major importance for developing polices to build communities’ resilience in the face of climate change. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations yield a broad inter-model range of intensities, durations and frequencies of these extremes. </span></p> <p class="western"><span>Here, we present a modeling experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Climate Model (RCM) to determine the influence of the choice of land surface model (LSM) component on the uncertainty in the simulation of extreme event statistics. First, we evaluate land-atmosphere interactions within four simulations performed with the WRF model coupled to three different LSMs from 1980 to 2012 over North America. Results show regional differences among simulations for the frequency of events when surface conditions are altered by atmospheric forcing or by land surface processes. Second, we find a large inter-model range of extreme statistics across the ensemble of WRF-LSM simulations. This is particularly the case for indices related to the intensity and duration of temperature and precipitation extremes. </span></p> <p class="western"><span>Regions displaying large uncertainty in the WRF simulation of extreme events are also identified in a model ensemble experiment carried out with three different RCMs participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. This agreement between the model simulations performed in this work and the set of CORDEX simulations suggests that the implications of our results are valid for other model ensembles. This study illustrates the importance of supporting the development of new multi-LSM modeling studies to understand inter-model differences in simulating extreme events, ultimately helping to narrow down the range across climate model projections.</span></p>

scholarly journals Land Surface Model influence on the simulated climatologies of temperature and precipitation extremes in the WRF v.3.9 model over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almudena García-García ◽  
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽  
Hugo Beltrami ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in regional and global climate models are of major importance for the study of climate change impacts. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations yield a broad inter-model range of intensity, duration and frequency of these extremes. Here, we present a modeling experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to determine the influence of the land surface model (LSM) component on uncertainties associated with extreme events. First, we evaluate land-atmosphere interactions within four simulations performed by the WRF model using three different LSMs from 1980 to 2012 over North America. Results show LSM-dependent differences at regional scales in the frequency of occurrence of events when surface conditions are altered by atmospheric forcing or land processes. The inter-model range of extreme statistics across the WRF simulations is large, particularly for indices related to the intensity and duration of temperature and precipitation extremes. Areas showing large uncertainty in WRF simulated extreme events are also identified in a model ensemble from three different Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, revealing the implications of these results for other model ensembles. This study illustrates the importance of the LSM choice in climate simulations, supporting the development of new modeling studies using different LSM components to understand inter-model differences in simulating temperature and precipitation extreme events, which in turn will help to reduce uncertainties in climate model projections.

Evaluation of Temperature Simulation over Northern Thailand from Regional Climate Model Coupled with Land Surface Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 866 ◽  
pp. 108-111
Author(s):  
Theerapan Saesong ◽  
Pakpoom Ratjiranukool ◽  
Sujittra Ratjiranukool
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
Weather Model

Numerical Weather Model called The Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF, developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is adapted to be regional climate model. The model is run to perform the daily mean air surface temperatures over northern Thailand in 2010. Boundery dataset provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP FNL, (Final) Operational Global Analysis data which are on 10 x 10. The simulated temperatures by WRF with four land surface options, i.e., no land surface scheme (option 0), thermal diffusion (option 1), Noah land-surface (option 2) and RUC land-surface (option 3) were compared against observational data from Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). Preliminary analysis indicated WRF simulations with Noah scheme were able to reproduce the most reliable daily mean temperatures over northern Thailand.

scholarly journals Assessment of WRF Land Surface Model Performance over West Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Ifeanyi C. Achugbu ◽  
Jimy Dudhia ◽  
Ayorinde A. Olufayo ◽  
Ifeoluwa A. Balogun ◽  
Elijah A. Adefisan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Moisture Advection

Simulations with four land surface models (LSMs) (i.e., Noah, Noah-MP, Noah-MP with ground water GW option, and CLM4) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12 km horizontal grid resolution were carried out as two sets for 3 months (December–February 2011/2012 and July–September 2012) over West Africa. The objective is to assess the performance of WRF LSMs in simulating meteorological parameters over West Africa. The model precipitation was assessed against TRMM while surface temperature was compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Results show that the LSMs performed differently for different variables in different land-surface conditions. Based on precipitation and temperature, Noah-MP GW is overall the best for all the variables and seasons in combination, while Noah came last. Specifically, Noah-MP GW performed best for JAS temperature and precipitation; CLM4 was the best in simulating DJF precipitation, while Noah was the best in simulating DJF temperature. Noah-MP GW has the wettest Sahel while Noah has the driest one. The strength of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is strongest in Noah-MP GW and Noah-MP compared with that in CLM4 and Noah. The core of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) lies around 12°N in Noah and 15°N for Noah-MP GW. Noah-MP GW and Noah-MP simulations have stronger influx of moisture advection from the southwesterly monsoonal wind than the CLM4 and Noah with Noah showing the least influx. Also, analysis of the evaporative fraction shows sharp gradient for Noah-MP GW and Noah-MP with wetter Sahel further to the north and further to the south for Noah. Noah-MP-GW has the highest amount of soil moisture, while the CLM4 has the least for both the JAS and DJF seasons. The CLM4 has the highest LH for both DJF and JAS seasons but however has the least SH for both DJF and JAS seasons. The principal difference between the LSMs is in the vegetation representation, description, and parameterization of the soil water column; hence, improvement is recommended in this regard.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Snow Water Equivalent in NARCCAP Simulations, Including Measures of Observational Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 2425-2452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
Seth McGinnis ◽  
Linda O. Mearns
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Noah Land Surface Model

Abstract This study evaluates snow water equivalent (SWE) over North America in the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM) experiments. Examination of SWE in these runs allows for the identification of bias due to RCM configuration, separate from inherited GCM bias. SWE from the models is compared to SWE from a new ensemble observational product to evaluate the RCMs’ ability to capture the magnitude, spatial distribution, duration, and timing of the snow season. This new dataset includes data from 14 different sources in five different types. Consideration of the associated uncertainty in observed SWE strongly influences the appearance of bias in RCM-generated SWE. Of the six NARCCAP RCMs, the version of MM5 run by Iowa State University (MM5I) is found to best represent SWE despite its use of the Noah land surface model. CRCM overestimates SWE because of cold temperature biases and surface temperature parameterization options, while RegCM3 (RCM3) does so because of excessive precipitation. HadRM3 (HRM3) underestimates SWE because of warm temperature biases, while in the version of WRF using the Grell scheme (WRFG) and ECPC-RSM (ECP2), the misrepresentation of snow in the Noah land surface model plays the dominant role in SWE bias, particularly in ECP2 where sublimation is too high.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Urban Impact on Surface and Screen-Level Temperature in the ALADIN-Climate Driven SURFEX Land Surface Model for Budapest

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 709
Author(s):  
Gabriella Zsebeházi ◽  
Sándor István Mahó
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Urban Impact ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
The Impact

Land surface models with detailed urban parameterization schemes provide adequate tools to estimate the impact of climate change in cities, because they rely on the results of the regional climate model, while operating on km scale at low cost. In this paper, the SURFEX land surface model driven by the evaluation and control runs of ALADIN-Climate regional climate model is validated over Budapest from the aspect of urban impact on temperature. First, surface temperature of SURFEX with forcings from ERA-Interim driven ALADIN-Climate was compared against the MODIS land surface temperature for a 3-year period. Second, the impact of the ARPEGE global climate model driven ALADIN-Climate was assessed on the 2 m temperature of SURFEX and was validated against measurements of a suburban station for 30 years. The spatial extent of surface urban heat island (SUHI) is exaggerated in SURFEX from spring to autumn, because the urbanized gridcells are generally warmer than their rural vicinity, while the observed SUHI extent is more variable. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal means and diurnal cycle of the 2 m temperature in the suburban gridpoint, except summer when strong positive bias occurs. However, comparing the two experiments from the aspect of nocturnal UHI, only minor differences arose. The thorough validation underpins the applicability of SURFEX driven by ALADIN-Climate for future urban climate projections.

scholarly journals Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 3099-3128 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. P. Maurer ◽  
J. C. Adam ◽  
A. W. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was applied to investigate the hydrologic impacts of these changes, focusing on inflow to two major hydropower reservoirs. By 2070–2099 the median warming relative to 1961–1990 was 1.9°C and 3.4°C under B1 and A2 emissions, respectively. For the same periods, the models project median precipitation decreases of 5.0% (B1) and 10.4% (A2). Median changes by 2070–2099 in reservoir inflow were 13% (B1) and 24% (A2), with largest flow reductions during the rising limb of the seasonal hydrograph, from June through September. Frequency of low flow years increases, implying decreases in firm hydropower capacity of 33% to 53% by 2070–2099.

scholarly journals WRF Model Sensitivity to Land Surface Model and Cumulus Parameterization under Short-Term Climate Extremes over the Southern Great Plains of the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (20) ◽  
pp. 7703-7724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisi Pei ◽  
Nathan Moore ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong ◽  
Lifeng Luo ◽  
David W. Hyndman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Southern Great Plains

Abstract Extreme weather and climate events, especially short-term excessive drought and wet periods over agricultural areas, have received increased attention. The Southern Great Plains (SGP) is one of the largest agricultural regions in North America and features the underlying Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer system worth great economic value in large part due to production gains from groundwater. Climate research over the SGP is needed to better understand complex coupled climate–hydrology–socioeconomic interactions critical to the sustainability of this region, especially under extreme climate scenarios. Here the authors studied growing-season extreme conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The six most extreme recent years, both wet and dry, were simulated to investigate the impacts of land surface model and cumulus parameterization on the simulated hydroclimate. The results show that under short-term climate extremes, the land surface model plays a more important role modulating the land–atmosphere water budget, and thus the entire regional climate, than the cumulus parameterization under current model configurations. Between the two land surface models tested, the more sophisticated land surface model produced significantly larger wet bias in large part due to overestimation of moisture flux convergence, which is attributed mainly to an overestimation of the surface evapotranspiration during the simulated period. The deficiencies of the cumulus parameterizations resulted in the model’s inability to depict the diurnal rainfall variability. Both land surface processes and cumulus parameterizations remain the most challenging parts of regional climate modeling under extreme climates over the SGP, with the former strongly affecting the precipitation amount and the latter strongly affecting the precipitation pattern.

scholarly journals Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. P. Maurer ◽  
J. C. Adam ◽  
A. W. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract. Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was applied to investigate the hydrologic impacts of these changes, focusing on inflow to two major hydropower reservoirs. By 2070–2099 the median warming relative to 1961–1990 was 1.9°C and 3.4°C under B1 and A2 emissions, respectively. For the same periods, the models project median precipitation decreases of 5.0% (B1) and 10.4% (A2). Median changes by 2070–2099 in reservoir inflow were 13% (B1) and 24% (A2), with largest flow reductions during the rising limb of the seasonal hydrograph, from June through September. Frequency of low flow years increases, implying decreases in firm hydropower capacity of 33% to 53% by 2070–2099.

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