scholarly journals Representation of disturbance in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator Vn4.8 (JULES)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantelle Burton ◽  
Richard Betts ◽  
Manoel Cardoso ◽  
Ted R. Feldpausch ◽  
Anna Harper ◽  
...  

Abstract. The representation of disturbance is a critical factor in land-surface modelling, but is generally poorly constrained in carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) to represent land-use change and fire as separate disturbances. We use the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment) land cover dataset to analyse the impact of land-use change on global vegetation, and couple the fire model INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) to dynamic vegetation within JULES to assess how the representation of disturbance affects the simulation of present day vegetation. We test model performance, evaluating the inclusion of land use and fire disturbance against standard benchmarks. Using the Manhattan Metric, overall disturbance improves the simulation of vegetation cover compared to observations by up to 53 %. Grasses show an improvement of up to 52 %, with biases in extent reduced from −66 % to 13 %. Total woody cover improves by up to 121 % from a reduction in forest extent in the tropics, although simulated tree cover is now too sparse in some areas. Disturbance generally decreases tree and shrub cover and increases grasses. The results show that the disturbances provide important contributions to the realistic modelling of vegetation on a global scale, although in some areas fire and land-use together result in over-disturbance. This work provides a substantial contribution towards representing the full complexity and interactions between land-use change and fire that could be used in Earth System Models.

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantelle Burton ◽  
Richard Betts ◽  
Manoel Cardoso ◽  
Ted R. Feldpausch ◽  
Anna Harper ◽  
...  

Abstract. Disturbance of vegetation is a critical component of land cover, but is generally poorly constrained in land surface and carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) to represent land-use change and fire as distinct processes which interact with simulated vegetation dynamics. We couple the fire model INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) to dynamic vegetation within JULES and use the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment) land cover dataset to analyse the impact of land-use change on the simulation of present day vegetation. We evaluate the inclusion of land use and fire disturbance against standard benchmarks. Using the Manhattan metric, results show improved simulation of vegetation cover across all observed datasets. Overall, disturbance improves the simulation of vegetation cover by 35 % compared to vegetation continuous field (VCF) observations from MODIS and 13 % compared to the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) from the ESA. Biases in grass extent are reduced from −66 % to 13 %. Total woody cover improves by 55 % compared to VCF and 20 % compared to CCI from a reduction in forest extent in the tropics, although simulated tree cover is now too sparse in some areas. Explicitly modelling fire and land use generally decreases tree and shrub cover and increases grasses. The results show that the disturbances provide important contributions to the realistic modelling of vegetation on a global scale, although in some areas fire and land use together result in too much disturbance. This work provides a substantial contribution towards representing the full complexity and interactions between land-use change and fire that could be used in Earth system models.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2031-2055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schwitalla ◽  
Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Abstract. Increasing computational resources and the demands of impact modelers, stake holders, and society envision seasonal and climate simulations with the convection-permitting resolution. So far such a resolution is only achieved with a limited-area model whose results are impacted by zonal and meridional boundaries. Here, we present the setup of a latitude-belt domain that reduces disturbances originating from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows for studying the impact of model resolution and physical parameterization. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land–surface model was operated during July and August 2013 at two different horizontal resolutions, namely 0.03 (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). Both simulations were forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries, and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface.The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large-scale features. To analyze the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used as references.Analyzing pressure, geopotential height, wind, and temperature fields as well as precipitation revealed (1) a benefit from the higher resolution concerning the reduction of monthly biases, root mean square error, and an improved Pearson skill score, and (2) deficiencies in the physical parameterizations leading to notable biases in distinct regions like the polar Atlantic for the LOWRES simulation, the North Pacific, and Inner Mongolia for both resolutions.In summary, the application of a latitude belt on a convection-permitting resolution shows promising results that are beneficial for future seasonal forecasting.


2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Decharme ◽  
H. Douville ◽  
A. Boone ◽  
F. Habets ◽  
J. Noilhan

Abstract This study focuses on the influence of an exponential profile of saturated hydraulic conductivity, ksat, with soil depth on the water budget simulated by the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model over the French Rhône River basin. With this exponential profile, the saturated hydraulic conductivity at the surface increases by approximately a factor of 10, and its mean value increases in the root zone and decreases in the deeper region of the soil in comparison with the values given by Clapp and Hornberger. This new version of ISBA is compared to the original version in offline simulations using the Rhône-Aggregation high-resolution database. Low-resolution simulations, where all atmospheric data and surface parameters have been aggregated, are also performed to test the impact of the modified ksat profile at the typical scale of a climate model. The simulated discharges are compared to observations from a dense network consisting of 88 gauging stations. Results of the high-resolution experiments show that the exponential profile of ksat globally improves the simulated discharges and that the assumption of an increase in saturated hydraulic conductivity from the soil surface to a depth close to the rooting depth in comparison with values given by Clapp and Hornberger is reasonable. Results of the scaling experiments indicate that this parameterization is also suitable for large-scale hydrological applications. Nevertheless, low-resolution simulations with both model versions overestimate evapotranspiration (especially from the plant transpiration and the wet fraction of the canopy) to the detriment of total runoff, which emphasizes the need for implementing subgrid distribution of precipitation and land surface properties in large-scale hydrological applications.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arbindra Timilsina ◽  
Wenxu Dong ◽  
Jiafa Luo ◽  
Stuart Lindsey ◽  
Yuying Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractThe conversion of natural grassland to semi-natural or artificial ecosystems is a large-scale land-use change (LUC) commonly occurring to saline–alkaline land. Conversion of natural to artificial ecosystems, with addition of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) fertilizer, influences N availability in the soil that may result in higher N2O emission along with depletion of 15N, while converting from natural to semi-natural the influence may be small. So, this study assesses the impact of LUC on N2O emission and 15N in N2O emitted from naturally occurring saline–alkaline soil when changing from natural grassland (Phragmites australis) to semi-natural [Tamarix chinensis (Tamarix)] and to cropland (Gossypium spp.). The grassland and Tamarix ecosystems were not subject to any management practice, while the cropland received fertilizer and irrigation. Overall, median N2O flux was significantly different among the ecosystems with the highest from the cropland (25.3 N2O-N µg m−2 h−1), intermediate (8.2 N2O-N µg m−2 h−1) from the Tamarix and the lowest (4.0 N2O-N µg m−2 h−1) from the grassland ecosystem. The 15N isotopic signatures in N2O emitted from the soil were also significantly affected by the LUC with more depleted from cropland (− 25.3 ‰) and less depleted from grassland (− 0.18 ‰). Our results suggested that the conversion of native saline–alkaline grassland with low N to Tamarix or cropland is likely to result in increased soil N2O emission and also contributes significantly to the depletion of the 15N in atmospheric N2O, and the contribution of anthropogenic N addition was found more significant than any other processes.


2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2981-2995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Mahalov ◽  
Jialun Li ◽  
Peter Hyde

Abstract In this study, the impacts of Mexican and southwestern U.S. agricultural and urban irrigation on North American monsoon (NAM) rainfall and other hydrometeorological fields are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model by implementing an irrigation scheme into the WRF–land surface model. Taking the 2000–12 monsoon seasons as examples, multiple WRF simulations with irrigation are conducted by designing different crops’ maximum allowable water depletions (SWm). In comparison with gridded rainfall observations in urban and rural area, the WRF simulations with/without irrigation generally capture the observations very well, but with underestimation along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) and overestimation over southern Mexico. The simulations of WRF with irrigation are slightly improved over those without irrigation, compared with rainfall and sounding observations. Sensitivity studies reveal that the impact of irrigation on rainfall varies with location and NAM rainfall variability. Irrigation increases rainfall in eastern Arizona–western New Mexico and in northwestern Mexico because of the irrigation-induced increases of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water. Overall, irrigation decreases rainfall in western Arizona, along the western slope of the SMO, and in central Mexico because of irrigation-induced increases of convective inhibition (CIN), decreases of CAPE, and/or large-scale water vapor divergence.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4713-4747
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2053-2100 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Garrigues ◽  
A. Olioso ◽  
D. Carrer ◽  
B. Decharme ◽  
E. Martin ◽  
...  

Abstract. Generic land surface models are generally driven by large-scale forcing datasets to describe the climate, the surface characteristics (soil texture, vegetation dynamic) and the cropland management (irrigation). This paper investigates the errors in these forcing variables and their impacts on the evapotranspiration (ET) simulated from the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA-A-gs) land surface model over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. We evaluate the forcing datasets used in the standard implementation of ISBA over France where the model is driven by the SAFRAN high spatial resolution atmospheric reanalysis, the Leaf Area Index (LAI) cycles derived from the Ecoclimap-II land surface parameter database and the soil texture derived from the French soil database. For climate, we focus on the radiations and rainfall variables and we test additional datasets which includes the ERA-Interim low spatial resolution reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre dataset (GPCC) and the MeteoSat Second Generation (MSG) satellite estimate of downwelling shortwave radiations. The methodology consists in comparing the simulation achieved using large-scale forcing datasets with the simulation achieved using local observations for each forcing variable. The relative impacts of the forcing variables on simulated ET are compared with each other and with the model uncertainties triggered by errors in soil parameters. LAI and the lack of irrigation in the simulation generate the largest mean deviations in ET between the large-scale and the local-scale simulations (equivalent to 24 and 19 months of ET over 12 yr). The climate induces smaller mean deviations equivalent to 7–8 months of ET over 12 yr. The soil texture has the lowest impact (equivalent to 3 months of ET). However, the impact of errors in the forcing variables is smaller than the impact triggered by errors in the soil parameters (equivalent to 27 months of ET). The absence of irrigation which represents 18% of cumulative rainfall over 12 years induces a deficit in ET of 14%. It generates much larger variations in incoming water for the model than the differences in rainfall between the reanalysis datasets. ET simulated with the Ecoclimap-II LAI climatology is overestimated by 18% over 12 years. This is related to the overestimation of the mean LAI over the crop cycle which reveals inaccurate representation of Mediterranean crop cycles. Compared to SAFRAN, the use of the ERA-I reanalysis, the GPCC rainfall and the downwelling shortwave radiation derived from the MSG satellite have little influence on the ET simulation performances. The error in yearly ET is mainly driven by the error in yearly rainfall and to a less extent by radiations. The SAFRAN and MSG satellite shortwave radiation estimates show similar negative biases (−9 and −11 W m−2). The ERA-I bias in shortwave radiations is 4 times smaller at daily time scale. Both SAFRAN and ERA-I underestimate longwave downwelling radiations by −12 and −16 W m−2, respectively. The biases in shortwave and longwave radiations show larger inter-annual variation for SAFRAN than for ERA-I. Regarding rainfall, SAFRAN and ERA-I/GPCC are slightly biased at daily and longer time scales (1 and 0.5% of the mean rainfall measurement). The SAFRAN rainfall estimates are more precise due to the use of the in situ daily rainfall measurements of the Avignon site in the reanalysis.


2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1411-1435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gina Tsarouchi ◽  
Wouter Buytaert

Abstract. Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000–2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000–2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030–2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Roderick Charles James Boys

<p>During the anthropocene land use change has exacerbated erosion of the Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) rich topsoil in the Oporae Valley. As well as reducing the SOC content of the contemporary topsoil, the large scale redistribution of sediment has created a quantifiable long-term SOC sink in paleosols. Using contemporary native forest soils as a proxy, pasture covered topsoils contain ~40% less SOC (a loss of 5,338 T/[square kilometer] SOC). The pre-human paleosol at ~200 cm, an average 32 cm thickness, contains 9180 T/[square kilometer]. Significantly more SOC buried at depth than what currently exists in the contemporary topsoil indicates the relative importance of paleosols as C stores and the role of land use change on SOC. The preservation characteristics of a paleosol in the Oporae Valley are determined by slope angle and the relative position they hold in relation to the inter-fingering of the alluvial toeslope with the colluvial footslope. Groupings of [radioisotope carbon-14] ages in and above the pre-human paleosol allow for calculation of terrestrial sedimentation rates. At ~0.9 mm yr^-1 the terrestrial pre-human sedimentation rate averaged over the valley floor is approximately half (0.53) of the corresponding pre-human lake rate of ~1.7 mm yr^-1. As a proportion of the lake's anthropogenic sedimentation rate at ~4.8 mm yr^-1, the terrestrial anthropogenic sedimentation rate has slightly increased to ~2.8 mm yr^-1 (0.58 of the lake sedimentation rate). These initial findings demonstrate the potential for further research in this area, so that ongoing land-use change can be accurately incorporated into terrestrial carbon accounting.</p>


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Schwitalla ◽  
Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Kirsten Warrach-Sagi

Abstract. The impact of a convection permitting (CP) northern hemisphere latitude-belt simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was investigated during the July and August 2013. For this application, the WRF model together with the NOAH land-surface model (LSM) was applied at two different horizontal resolutions, 0.03° (HIRES) and 0.12° (LOWRES). The set-up as a latitude-belt domain avoids disturbances that originate from the western and eastern boundaries and therefore allows to study the impact of model resolution and physical parameterizations on the results. Both simulations were forced by ECMWF operational analysis data at the northern and southern domain boundaries and the high-resolution Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data at the sea surface. The simulations are compared to the operational ECMWF analysis for the representation of large scale features. To compare the simulated precipitation, the operational ECMWF forecast, the CPC MORPHing (CMORPH), and the ENSEMBLES gridded observation precipitation data set (E-OBS) were used. Compared to the operational high-resolution ECMWF analysis, both simulations are able to capture the large scale circulation pattern though the strength of the Pacific high is considerably overestimated in the LOWRES simulation. Major differences between ECMWF and WRF occur during July 2013 when the lower resolution simulation shows a significant negative bias over the North Atlantic which is not observed in the CP simulation. The analysis indicates deficiencies in the applied combinations of cloud microphysics and convection parametrization on the coarser grid scale in subpolar regions. The overall representation of the 500 hPa geopotential height surface is also improved by the CP simulation compared to the LOWRES simulation apart across Newfoundland where the geopotential height is higher than in the LOWRES simulation due to a northward shift of the location of the Atlantic high pressure system. Both simulations show higher wind speeds in the boundary layer by about 1.5 m s−1 compared to the the ECMWF analysis. Due to the higher surface evaporation, this results in a moist bias of 0.5 g kg−1 at 925 hPa in the planetary boundary layer compared to the ECMWF analysis. Major differences between ECMWF and WRF occur in the simulation of the 2-m temperatures over the Asian desert and steppe regions. They are significantly higher in WRF by about 5 K both during day- and night-time presumably as a result of different soil hydraulic parameters used in the NOAH land surface model for steppe regions. The precipitation of the HIRES simulation shows a better spatial agreement with CMORPH especially over mountainous terrain. The overall bias reduces from 80 mm at the coarser resolution to 50 mm in the HIRES simulation and the root mean square error is reduced by about 35 % when compared to the CMORPH precipitation analysis. The precipitation distribution agrees much better with the CMORPH data than the LOWRES simulation which tends to overestimate precipitation, mainly caused by the convection parametrization. Especially over Europe the CP resolution reduces the precipitation bias by about 30 % to 20 mm as a result of a better terrain representation and due to the avoidance of the convection parameterization.


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