scholarly journals Stochastic perturbations for parametrisation tendencies in a convection-permitting ensemble

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Wastl ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Christoph Wittman
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Total Model ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. A modification of the widely used SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies) scheme is proposed and tested in a Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C-LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik). The tendencies from four physical parametrisation schemes are perturbed: radiation, shallow convection, turbulence and microphysics. Whereas in SPPT the total model tendencies are perturbed, in the present approach (pSPPT hereinafter) the partial tendencies of the physics parametrisation schemes are sequentially perturbed. Thus, in pSPPT an interaction between the uncertainties of the different physics parametrisation schemes is sustained and a more physically consistent relationship between the processes is kept. Two configurations of pSPPT are evaluated over two months (one of summer and another of winter). Both schemes increase the stability of the model and lead to statistically significant improvements in the probabilistic performance compared to the original SPPT. An evaluation of selected test cases shows that the positive effect of stochastic physics is much more pronounced on days with high convective activity. Small discrepancies in the humidity analysis can be dedicated to the use of a very simple supersaturation adjustment. This and other adjustments are discussed to provide some suggestions for future investigations.

scholarly journals Independent perturbations for physics parametrization tendencies in a convection-permitting ensemble (pSPPT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 261-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Wastl ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Christoph Wittmann
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Physical Parametrization ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Total Model ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. A modification of the widely used SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies) scheme is proposed and tested in a Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C-LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik). The tendencies from four physical parametrization schemes are perturbed: radiation, shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Whereas in SPPT the total model tendencies are perturbed, in the present approach (pSPPT hereinafter) the partial tendencies of the physics parametrization schemes are sequentially perturbed. Thus, in pSPPT an interaction between the uncertainties of the different physics parametrization schemes is sustained and a more physically consistent relationship between the processes is kept. Two configurations of pSPPT are evaluated over two separate months (one in summer and another in winter). Both schemes increase the stability of the model and lead to statistically significant improvements in the probabilistic performance compared to a reference run without stochastic physics. An evaluation of selected test cases shows that the positive effect of stochastic physics is much more pronounced on days with high convective activity. Small discrepancies in the humidity analysis can be dedicated to the use of a very simple supersaturation adjustment. This and other adjustments are discussed to provide some suggestions for future investigations.

scholarly journals C‐LAEF : Convection‐permitting Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Wastl ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Florian Weidle ◽  
Christoph Wittmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Forecasting System

Options and extensions for the stochastic shallow convection scheme in ICON

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maike Ahlgrimm ◽  
Daniel Klocke ◽  
Alberto de Lozar ◽  
Ekaterina Machulskaya ◽  
Mirjana Sakradzija ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Convective Transport ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Convection Scheme ◽  
Stochastic Perturbations ◽  
Convection Parameterization ◽  
Flux Limiters

<p>The Icosahedral Model (ICON) of the German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) is used for numerical weather prediction at global and regional scales. In the limited area mode, resolution is typically on the order of a few kilometers horizontal grid spacing. Deep convective transport is partially resolved at these scales, but shallow convection remains poorly represented without a parameterization.</p><p>A stochastic shallow convection scheme was developed in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, and is now being implemented in ICON with a view towards operational use. The scheme is scale-adaptive and renders resolution-dependent tuning of the convection parameterization unnecessary. Mass flux limiters essential for the stable operation of the unaltered convection scheme can be removed when the stochastic perturbations are introduced.</p><p>Alongside the original, explicit stochastic scheme an approximation using stochastic differential equations (SDE) has been developed. The advantage of the SDE version is a lower computational and memory cost, and the ability to save and restart the model‘s stochastic cloud state easily.</p><p>Equivalence of the two versions can be demonstrated by running one version interactively, the other passively (“piggy-backing”). While the SDE approximation is computationally more efficient, the explicit version of the scheme can be easily extended to keep track of additional properties of the shallow cloud ensemble. For example, the convective updraft core fraction can be calculated for use in the diagnostic subgrid cloud scheme. Or knowledge of individual clouds’ depth can be used to derive a more realistic lateral detrainment profile than is currently in use.</p><p>We demonstrate the performance of the scheme and illustrate options and applications in single column mode, case studies and month-long hindcasts.</p>

The Central European limited-area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN-LAEF

2011 ◽  
Vol 137 (655) ◽  
pp. 483-502 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wang ◽  
Martin Bellus ◽  
Christoph Wittmann ◽  
Martin Steinheimer ◽  
Florian Weidle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Central European ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals Inhibition or Facilitation? Contrasted Inter-Specific Interactions in Sphagnum under Laboratory and Field Conditions

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1554
Author(s):  
Chao Liu ◽  
Zhao-Jun Bu ◽  
Azim Mallik ◽  
Yong-Da Chen ◽  
Xue-Feng Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Resource Competition ◽  
Specific Interactions ◽  
Interaction Type ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Experiment Data ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Positive Effect

In a natural environment, plants usually interact with their neighbors predominantly through resource competition, allelopathy, and facilitation. The occurrence of the positive effect of allelopathy between peat mosses (Sphagnum L.) is rare, but it has been observed in a field experiment. It is unclear whether the stability of the water table level in peat induces positive vs. negative effects of allelopathy and how that is related to phenolic allelochemical production in Sphagnum. Based on field experiment data, we established a laboratory experiment with three neighborhood treatments to measure inter-specific interactions between Sphagnum angustifolium (Russ.) C. Jens and Sphagnum magellanicum Brid. We found that the two species were strongly suppressed by the allelopathic effects of each other. S. magellanicum allelopathically facilitated S. angustifolium in the field but inhibited it in the laboratory, and relative allelopathy intensity appeared to be positively related to the content of released phenolics. We conclude that the interaction type and intensity between plants are dependent on environmental conditions. The concentration of phenolics alone may not explain the type and relative intensity of allelopathy. Carefully designed combined field and laboratory experiments are necessary to reveal the mechanism of species interactions in natural communities.

SHELL MATERIAL'S PERFORMANCE OF THE MICROCAPSULE FOR ELECTROLYTIC CO-DEPOSITION

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (15n16) ◽  
pp. 3124-3130 ◽  
Author(s):  
HUI CONG LIU ◽  
XIU QING XU ◽  
WEI PING LI ◽  
YAN HONG GUO ◽  
LI-QUN ZHU
Keyword(s):  
Composite Coating ◽  
Methyl Cellulose ◽  
Water Vapor Permeability ◽  
Core Material ◽  
Vapor Permeability ◽  
Shell Material ◽  
The Core ◽  
Surface Performance ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Positive Effect

The shell material of microcapsules has an important effect on the electrolytic co-deposition behavior, the release of core material and the surface performance of composite coating. This paper discussed the tensile property and the stability of three shell materials including polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), gelatin and methyl cellulose (MC). It is found that these three shell materials have good mechanical strength and flexibility which are favorable to electrolytic co-deposition and stability of microcapsules in composite coating and that MC has well permeability and porosity which has a positive effect on the release of the core material in composite coating. Moreover, the study of the thermal properties and water vapor permeability of the three shell materials showed that their permeability improved with increase of temperature and humidity. In addition, the composite copper coating containing microcapsules with PVA, gelatin or MC as shell material was prepared respectively.

scholarly journals A flood episode in northern Italy: multi-model and single-model mesoscale meteorological ensembles for hydrological predictions

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2107-2120 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Davolio ◽  
M. M. Miglietta ◽  
T. Diomede ◽  
C. Marsigli ◽  
A. Montani
Keyword(s):  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Meteorological Models

Abstract. Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km), and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (limited-area ensemble prediction system). The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOPKAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (northern Italy), for a recent severe weather episode affecting northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that, for the intercomparison undertaken in this specific study, both mesoscale model ensembles outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale. Horizontal resolution is found to play a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides a better indication concerning the occurrence, intensity and timing of the two observed discharge peaks, with respect to COSMO-LEPS. This seems to be ascribable to the different behaviour of the involved meteorological models. Finally, a different behaviour comes out at different forecast ranges. For short ranges, the impact of boundary conditions is weaker and the spread can be mainly attributed to the different characteristics of the models. At longer forecast ranges, the similar behaviour of the multi-model members forced by the same large-scale conditions indicates that the systems are governed mainly by the boundary conditions, although the different limited area models' characteristics may still have a non-negligible impact.

27 Years of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (7) ◽  
pp. 1415-1432 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Wang ◽  
Martin Belluš ◽  
Andrea Ehrlich ◽  
Máté Mile ◽  
Neva Pristov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Member States ◽  
Limited Area Model ◽  
Area Model ◽  
Common System

AbstractThis paper describes 27 years of scientific and operational achievement of Regional Cooperation for Limited Area Modelling in Central Europe (RC LACE), which is supported by the national (hydro-) meteorological services of Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The principal objectives of RC LACE are to 1) develop and operate the state-of-the-art limited-area model and data assimilation system in the member states and 2) conduct joint scientific and technical research to improve the quality of the forecasts.In the last 27 years, RC LACE has contributed to the limited-area Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement International (ALADIN) system in the areas of preprocessing of observations, data assimilation, model dynamics, physical parameterizations, mesoscale and convection-permitting ensemble forecasting, and verification. It has developed strong collaborations with numerical weather prediction (NWP) consortia ALADIN, the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) group, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). RC LACE member states exchange their national observations in real time and operate a common system that provides member states with the preprocessed observations for data assimilation and verification. RC LACE runs operationally a common mesoscale ensemble system, ALADIN–Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF), over all of Europe for early warning of severe weather.RC LACE has established an extensive regional scientific and technical collaboration in the field of operational NWP for weather research, forecasting, and applications. Its 27 years of experience have demonstrated the value of regional cooperation among small- and medium-sized countries for success in the development of a modern forecasting system, knowledge transfer, and capacity building.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF WEATHERED SURFACE CRUST LAYER ON STABILITY OF MUAR TRIAL EMBANKMENT

2015 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Sobhanmanesh ◽  
Ramli Nazir ◽  
Nader SaadatkhaH
Keyword(s):  
Deformation Behavior ◽  
Three Dimension ◽  
Crust Layer ◽  
Staged Construction ◽  
Weathered Crust ◽  
Dimension 2 ◽  
Embankment Height ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Surface Crust

his paper attempts to evaluate the effect of surface crust layer on the stability and deformation behavior of embankment. A full-scale case history trial embankment constructed on Muar flat in the valley of the Muar River in Malaysia was modeled and analyzed. The Muar trial embankment was simulated in two- and three-dimension (2-D and 3-D) utilizing finite element programs PLAXIS 2-D AND PLAXIS 3-D FOUNDATION, using staged-construction procedure. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying the thickness of weathered crust layer beneath the embankment fill, i.e., three models of embankment with no surface crust, 1 m surface crust and 2 m surface crust layer. Predictions were made for the vertical and the horizontal displacements of the embankment. Factor of safety for each meter increase in the embankment height was defined until the failure is reached. It is concluded that the bearing capacity of the ground and the deformation behavior of the embankment were sensitive to the thickness of the weathered crust layer. The surface crust layer has a positive effect on the stability of the embankment and consequently reduces the settlement and increases the failure height of the embankment fill up to 37%.

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