scholarly journals On a new assessment method for long-term chemistry-climate simulations in the UTLS based on IAGOS data: application to MOCAGE CCMI-REFC1SD simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Cohen ◽  
Virginie Marécal ◽  
Béatrice Josse ◽  
Valérie Thouret

Abstract. A wide variety of observation data sets are used to assess long-term simulations provided by chemistry-climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs). However, the upper troposphere – lower stratosphere (UTLS) has hardly been assessed in the models yet. Observations performed in the framework of IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) combine the advantages of in situ airborne measurements in the UTLS with an almost global-scale sampling, a ~ 20-year monitoring period and a high frequency. If a few model assessments have been made using IAGOS database, none of them took advantage of the dense and high-resolution cruise data in their whole ensemble yet. The present study proposes a method to compare this large IAGOS data set to long-term simulations used for chemistry-climate studies. For this purpose, a new software (named Interpol-IAGOS) projects all IAGOS data on the 3D grid of the chosen model with a monthly resolution, since generally chemistry-climate models provide 3D outputs as monthly means. This provides a new IAGOS data set (IAGOS-DM) mapped at the model's grid and time resolution. As a first application, the REF-C1SD simulation generated by MOCAGE CTM in the framework of CCMI phase-I has been evaluated during the 1994–2013 period for ozone and the 2002–2013 period for carbon monoxide. This comparison is exclusively based on the grid cells sampled by IAGOS, thus the assessed model output (MOCAGE-M) is obtained by applying a corresponding mask onto the grid. First, climatologies are derived from the IAGOS-DM product. Good correlations are reported between IAGOS-DM and MOCAGE-M spatial distributions. As an attempt to analyse MOCAGE-M behaviour in the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) separately, UT and LS data in IAGOS-DM were sorted according to potential vorticity. From this, we derived O3 and CO seasonal cycles in eight regions well sampled by IAGOS flights in the northern mid-latitudes. They are remarkably well-reproduced by the model for lower-stratospheric O3 and also good for upper-tropospheric CO. The data projection onto the model's grid is a necessary step for a more accurate assessment, as it allows to filter out biases only due to either spatial or temporal resolution. Beyond the MOCAGE REF-C1SD evaluation presented in this paper, the method could be used by CCMI models for individual assessments in the UTLS and for model intercomparisons with respect to IAGOS data set.

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 2659-2689
Author(s):  
Yann Cohen ◽  
Virginie Marécal ◽  
Béatrice Josse ◽  
Valérie Thouret

Abstract. A wide variety of observation data sets are used to assess long-term simulations provided by chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and chemistry-transport models (CTMs). However, the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere (UTLS) has hardly been assessed in these modelling exercises yet. Observations performed in the framework of IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) combine the advantages of in situ airborne measurements in the UTLS with an almost-global-scale sampling, a ∼20-year monitoring period and a high frequency. Even though a few model assessments have been made using the IAGOS database, none of them took advantage of the dense and high-resolution cruise data in their whole ensemble yet. The present study proposes a method to compare this large IAGOS data set to long-term simulations used for chemistry–climate studies. As a first application, the REF-C1SD reference simulation generated by the MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle) CTM in the framework of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) phase I has been evaluated during the 1994–2013 period for ozone (O3) and the 2002–2013 period for carbon monoxide (CO). The concept of the new comparison software proposed here (so-called Interpol-IAGOS) is to project all IAGOS data onto the 3-D grid of the model with a monthly resolution, since generally the 3-D outputs provided by chemistry–climate models for multi-model comparisons on multi-decadal timescales are archived as monthly means. This provides a new IAGOS data set (IAGOS-DM) mapped onto the model's grid and time resolution. To get a model data set consistent with IAGOS-DM for the comparison, a subset of the model's outputs is created (MOCAGE-M) by applying a mask that retains only the model data at the available IAGOS-DM grid points. Climatologies are derived from the IAGOS-DM product, and good correlations are reported between with the MOCAGE-M spatial distributions. As an attempt to analyse MOCAGE-M behaviour in the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) separately, UT and LS data in IAGOS-DM were sorted according to potential vorticity. From this, we derived O3 and CO seasonal cycles in eight regions well sampled by IAGOS flights in the northern midlatitudes. They are remarkably well reproduced by the model for lower-stratospheric O3 and also good for upper-tropospheric CO. Along this model evaluation, we also assess the differences caused by the use of a weighting function in the method when projecting the IAGOS data onto the model grid compared to the scores derived in a simplified way. We conclude that the data projection onto the model's grid allows us to filter out biases arising from either spatial or temporal resolution, and the use of a weighting function yields different results, here by enhancing the assessment scores. Beyond the MOCAGE REF-C1SD evaluation presented in this paper, the method could be used by CCMI models for individual assessments in the UTLS and for model intercomparisons with respect to the IAGOS data set.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Berkes ◽  
Patrick Neis ◽  
Martin G. Schultz ◽  
Ulrich Bundke ◽  
Susanne Rohs ◽  
...  

Abstract. Despite several studies on temperature trends in the tropopause region, a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of temperatures in this climate-sensitive region of the atmosphere remains elusive. Here we present a unique global-scale, long-term data set of high-resolution in-situ temperature data measured aboard passenger aircraft within the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System, www.iagos.org). This data set is used to investigate temperature trends within the global upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) for the period 1995 to 2012 in different geographical regions and vertical layers of the UTLS. The largest amount of observations is available over the North Atlantic. Here, a neutral temperature trend is found within the lowermost stratosphere. This contradicts the temperature trend in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, where a significant (95 % confidence) temperature increase of +0.56 K/decade is obtained. Differences between trends derived from observations and reanalysis data can be traced back to changes in the temperature bias between observation and model data over the studied period. This study demonstrates the value of the IAGOS temperature observations as anchor point for the evaluation of reanalyses and its suitability for independent trend analyses.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 4355-4373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swagata Payra ◽  
Philippe Ricaud ◽  
Rachid Abida ◽  
Laaziz El Amraoui ◽  
Jean-Luc Attié ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present analysis deals with one of the most debated aspects of the studies on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), namely the budget of water vapour (H2O) at the tropical tropopause. Within the French project “Multiscale water budget in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the TROpics” (TRO-pico), a global-scale analysis has been set up based on space-borne observations, models and assimilation techniques. The MOCAGE-VALENTINA assimilation tool has been used to assimilate the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) version 3.3 H2O measurements within the 316–5 hPa range from August 2011 to March 2013 with an assimilation window of 1 h. Diagnostics based on observations minus analysis and forecast are developed to assess the quality of the assimilated H2O fields. Comparison with an independent source of H2O measurements in the UTLS based on the space-borne Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) observations and with meteorological ARPEGE analyses is also shown. Sensitivity studies of the analysed fields have been performed by (1) considering periods when no MLS measurements are available and (2) using H2O data from another MLS version (4.2). The studies have been performed within three different spaces in time and space coincidences with MLS (hereafter referred to as MLS space) and MIPAS (MIPAS space) observations and with the model (model space) outputs and at three different levels: 121 hPa (upper troposphere), 100 hPa (tropopause) and 68 hPa (lower stratosphere) in January and February 2012. In the MLS space, the analyses behave consistently with the MLS observations from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. In the model space, the analyses are wetter than the reference atmosphere as represented by ARPEGE and MLS in the upper troposphere (121 hPa) and around the tropopause (100 hPa), but are consistent with MLS and MIPAS in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa). In the MIPAS space, the sensitivity and the vertical resolution of the MIPAS data set at 121 and 100 hPa prevent assessment of the behaviour of the analyses at 121 and 100 hPa, particularly over intense convective areas as the South American, the African and the Maritime continents but, in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa), the analyses are very consistent with MIPAS. Sensitivity studies show the improvement on the H2O analyses in the tropical UTLS when assimilating space-borne measurements of better quality, particularly over the convective areas.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
M. I. Hegglin ◽  
J. Anderson ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
J. Gille ◽  
...  

Abstract. A quality assessment of the CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series are obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991–2010. The intercomparisons focus on the mean biases of the monthly and annual zonal mean fields and aim to identify their vertical, latitudinal and temporal structure. The CFC evaluations (based on MIPAS, ACE-FTS and HIRDLS) reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 mean state, as given by satellite data sets, is smallest in the tropics and mid-latitudes at altitudes below 50 and 20 hPa, respectively, with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of up to ±5 %. For HF, the situation is reversed. The two available data sets (HALOE and ACE-FTS) agree well above 100 hPa, with a spread in this region of ±5 to ±10 %, while at altitudes below 100 hPa the HF annual mean state is less well known, with a spread ±30 % and larger. The atmospheric SF6 annual mean states derived from two satellite data sets (MIPAS and ACE-FTS) show only very small differences with a spread of less than ±5 % and often below ±2.5 %. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (CFCs, SF6) or middle stratosphere (HF), individual discrepancies have been identified. Pronounced deviations between the instrument climatologies exist for particular atmospheric regions which differ from gas to gas. Notable features are differently shaped isopleths in the subtropics, deviations in the vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere and in the meridional gradients in the upper troposphere, and inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Additionally, long-term drifts between the instruments have been identified for the CFC-11 and CFC-12 time series. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of atmospheric transport and variability, model–measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. The data sets will be publicly available from the SPARC Data Centre and through PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849223).


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2497-2526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotta Högberg ◽  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Farahnaz Khosrawi ◽  
Ralf Bauer ◽  
Kaley A. Walker ◽  
...  

Abstract. Within the framework of the second SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate) water vapour assessment (WAVAS-II), we evaluated five data sets of δD(H2O) obtained from observations by Odin/SMR (Sub-Millimetre Radiometer), Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding), and SCISAT/ACE-FTS (Science Satellite/Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment – Fourier Transform Spectrometer) using profile-to-profile and climatological comparisons. These comparisons aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of typical uncertainties in the observational database that could be considered in the future in observational and modelling studies. Our primary focus is on stratospheric altitudes, but results for the upper troposphere and lower mesosphere are also shown. There are clear quantitative differences in the measurements of the isotopic ratio, mainly with regard to comparisons between the SMR data set and both the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the SMR data set shows a higher depletion in δD than the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets. The differences maximise close to 50 hPa and exceed 200 ‰. With increasing altitude, the biases decrease. Above 4 hPa, the SMR data set shows a lower δD depletion than the MIPAS data sets, occasionally exceeding 100 ‰. Overall, the δD biases of the SMR data set are driven by HDO biases in the lower stratosphere and by H2O biases in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere. In between, in the middle stratosphere, the biases in δD are the result of deviations in both HDO and H2O. These biases are attributed to issues with the calibration, in particular in terms of the sideband filtering, and uncertainties in spectroscopic parameters. The MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets agree rather well between about 100 and 10 hPa. The MIPAS data sets show less depletion below approximately 15 hPa (up to about 30 ‰), due to differences in both HDO and H2O. Higher up this behaviour is reversed, and towards the upper stratosphere the biases increase. This is driven by increasing biases in H2O, and on occasion the differences in δD exceed 80 ‰. Below 100 hPa, the differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data sets are even larger. In the climatological comparisons, the MIPAS data sets continue to show less depletion in δD than the ACE-FTS data sets below 15 hPa during all seasons, with some variations in magnitude. The differences between the MIPAS and ACE-FTS data have multiple causes, such as differences in the temporal and spatial sampling (except for the profile-to-profile comparisons), cloud influence, vertical resolution, and the microwindows and spectroscopic database chosen. Differences between data sets from the same instrument are typically small in the stratosphere. Overall, if the data sets are considered together, the differences in δD among them in key areas of scientific interest (e.g. tropical and polar lower stratosphere, lower mesosphere, and upper troposphere) are too large to draw robust conclusions on atmospheric processes affecting the water vapour budget and distribution, e.g. the relative importance of different mechanisms transporting water vapour into the stratosphere.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (23) ◽  
pp. 13507-13518 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fujiwara ◽  
T. Hibino ◽  
S. K. Mehta ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
D. Mitchell ◽  
...  

Abstract. The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, as well as to link studies using only a single reanalysis data set to other studies using a different reanalysis data set.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Morice ◽  
John Kennedy ◽  
Nick Rayner ◽  
Jonathan Winn ◽  
Emma Hogan ◽  
...  

<p>The new HadCRUT5 data set combines meteorological station air temperature records with sea-surface temperature measurements in a data set of near-surface temperature anomalies from the year 1850 to present. Major developments in HadCRUT5 include: updates to underpinning observation data holdings; use of an updated assessment of the impacts of changing marine measurement methods; and adoption of a statistical gridding method to extend estimates into sparsely observed regions of the globe, such as the Arctic. The data are presented as a 200-member ensemble that spans the assessed uncertainty associated with adjustments for long-term observational biases, observing platform measurement errors and the interaction of observational sampling with gridding methods. The impacts of methodological changes in HadCRUT5 on diagnostics of the global climate will be discussed and compared to results derived from other state-of-the-art global data sets.</p>


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 12495-12508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Berkes ◽  
Patrick Neis ◽  
Martin G. Schultz ◽  
Ulrich Bundke ◽  
Susanne Rohs ◽  
...  

Abstract. Despite several studies on temperature trends in the tropopause region, a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of temperatures in this climate-sensitive region of the atmosphere remains elusive. Here we present a unique global-scale, long-term data set of high-resolution in situ temperature data measured aboard passenger aircraft within the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; http://www.iagos.org). This data set is used to investigate temperature trends within the global upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS,  <  13 km) for the period of 1995–2012 in different geographical regions and vertical layers of the UTLS. The largest number of observations is available over the North Atlantic. Here, a neutral temperature trend is found within the lowermost stratosphere. This contradicts the temperature trend in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, in which a significant (95 % confidence) temperature increase of +0.56 K decade−1 is found. Differences between trends derived from observations and reanalysis data can be traced back to changes in the temperature difference between observation and model data over the period studied. This study underpins the value of the IAGOS temperature observations as an anchor point for the evaluation of reanalyses and its suitability for independent trend analyses.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 759-808
Author(s):  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
M. I. Hegglin ◽  
J. Anderson ◽  
B. Funke ◽  
J. Gille ◽  
...  

Abstract. A quality assessment of the CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed inter-comparison. The climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series are obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991–2010. The inter-comparisons focus on the mean biases of the monthly and annual zonal mean fields and aim to identify their vertical, latitudinal and temporal structure. The CFC evaluations (based on MIPAS, ACE-FTS and HIRDLS) reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 mean state, as given by satellite data sets, is smallest in the tropics and mid-latitudes at altitudes below 50 and 20 hPa, respectively, with a 1-sigma multi-instrument spread of up to ±5 %. For HF, the situation is reversed. The two available data sets (HALOE and ACE-FTS) agree well above 100 hPa with a spread in this region of ±5 to ±10 %, while at altitudes below 100 hPa the HF annual mean state is less well known with a spread ±30 % and larger. The atmospheric SF6 annual mean states derived from two satellite data sets (MIPAS and ACE-FTS) show only very small differences with a spread of less than ±5 % and often below ±2.5 %. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (CFCs, SF6) or middle stratosphere (HF), individual discrepancies have been identified. Pronounced deviations between the instrument climatologies exist for particular atmospheric regions which differ from gas to gas. Notable features are differently shaped isopleths in the subtropics, deviations in the vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere and in the meridional gradients in the upper troposphere, and inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Additionally, long-term drifts between the instruments have been identified for the CFC-11 and CFC-12 time series. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of atmospheric transport and variability, model-measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. The data sets will be publicly available from the SPARC Data center and through PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849223).


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Payra ◽  
P. Ricaud ◽  
R. Abida ◽  
L. El Amraoui ◽  
J.-L. Attié ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present analysis deals with one of the most debated aspect of the studies on the Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UTLS), namely the budget of the water vapour (H2O) at the tropical tropopause. Within the French project "Multiscale water budget in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the TROpics" (TRO-pico), a global-scale analysis has been set up based on space-borne observations, model and assimilation techniques. The MOCAGE-VALENTINA assimilation tool has been used to assimilate the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) version 3.3 H2O measurements within the 316–5 hPa hPa range from August 2011 to March 2013 with an assimilation window of 1 hour. Diagnostics are developed to assess the quality of the assimilated H2O fields depending on several parameters: model error, observation minus analysis and forecast. Comparison with an independent source of H2O measurements in the UTLS based on the spaceborne Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) observations and with meteorological ARPEGE analyses are also shown. Sensitivity studies of the analyzed fields have been performed by: 1) considering periods when no MLS measurements are available and 2) using another MLS version 4.2 H2O data. The studies have been performed within 3 different spaces in time and space coincidences with MLS and MIPAS observations and with the model outputs and at 3 different levels: 121 hPa (upper troposphere), 100 hPa (tropopause), and 68 hPa (lower stratosphere) in January and February 2012. In the MLS space, the analyses behave consistently with the MLS observations from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. In the model space, the analyses are wetter than the “true” atmosphere as represented by ARPEGE and MLS in the upper troposphere (121 hPa) and around the tropopause (100 hPa), but consistent with MLS and MIPAS in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa). In the MIPAS space, the sensitivity and the vertical resolution of the MIPAS data set at 121 and 100 hPa prevent to assess the behaviour of the analyses at 121 and 100 hPa particularly over intense convective areas as the Southern American, the African and the Maritime continents but, in the lower stratosphere (68 hPa), the analyses are very consistent with MIPAS. Sensitivity studies show the great improvement on the H2O analyses in the tropical UTLS when assimilating spaceborne measurements of better quality particularly over the convective areas.


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