scholarly journals Development and basic evaluation of a prognostic aerosol scheme (v1) in the CNRM Climate Model CNRM-CM6

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Michou ◽  
P. Nabat ◽  
D. Saint-Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Deep Blue ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Aerosol Module ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. We have implemented a prognostic aerosol scheme (v1) in CNRM-CM6, the climate model of CNRM-GAME and CERFACS, based upon the GEMS/MACC aerosol module of the ECMWF operational forecast model. This scheme describes the physical evolution of the five main types of aerosols, namely black carbon, organic matter, sulfate, desert dust and sea salt. In this work, we describe the characteristics of our implementation, for instance, taking into consideration a different dust scheme or boosting biomass burning emissions by a factor of 2, as well as the evaluation performed on simulation output. The simulations consist of time slice simulations for 2004 conditions and transient runs over the 1993–2012 period, and are either free-running or nudged towards the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Evaluation data sets include several satellite instrument AOD (aerosol optical depth) products (i.e., MODIS Aqua classic and Deep-Blue products, MISR and CALIOP products), as well as ground-based AERONET data and the derived AERONET climatology, MAC-v1. The uncertainty of aerosol-type seasonal AOD due to model internal variability is low over large parts of the globe, and the characteristics of a nudged simulation reflect those of a free-running simulation. In contrast, the impact of the new dust scheme is large, with modelled dust AODs from simulations with the new dust scheme close to observations. Overall patterns and seasonal cycles of the total AOD are well depicted with, however, a systematic low bias over oceans. The comparison to the fractional MAC-v1 AOD climatology shows disagreements mostly over continents, while that to AERONET sites outlines the capability of the model to reproduce monthly climatologies under very diverse dominant aerosol types. Here again, underestimation of the total AOD appears in several cases, sometimes linked to insufficient efficiency of the aerosol transport away from the aerosol sources. Analysis of monthly time series at 166 AERONET sites shows, in general, correlation coefficients higher than 0.5 and lower model variance than observed. A large interannual variability can also be seen in the CALIOP vertical profiles over certain regions of the world. Overall, this prognostic aerosol scheme appears promising for aerosol-climate studies. There is room, however, for implementing more complex parameterisations in relation to aerosols.

scholarly journals Development and basic evaluation of a prognostic aerosol scheme in the CNRM Climate Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 6263-6325
Author(s):  
M. Michou ◽  
P. Nabat ◽  
D. Saint-Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Deep Blue ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Aerosol Module ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. We have implemented a prognostic aerosol scheme in the CNRM-GAME/CERFACS climate model, based upon the GEMS/MACC aerosol module of the ECMWF operational forecast model. This scheme describes the physical evolution of the five main types of aerosols, namely black carbon, organic matter, sulfate, desert dust and sea-salt. In this work, we describe the specificities of our implementation, for instance, taking into consideration a different dust scheme or boosting biomass burning emissions by a factor of 2, as well as the evaluation performed on simulation outputs. The simulations consist of 2004 conditions and transient runs over the 1993–2012 period, and are either free-running or nudged towards the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Evaluation data sets include several satellite instrument AOD products (i.e., MODIS Aqua classic and Deep-Blue products, MISR and CALIOP products), as well as ground-based AERONET data and the derived AERONET climatology, MAC-v1. The internal variability of the model has little impact on the seasonal climatology of the AODs of the various aerosols, and the characteristics of a nudged simulation reflect those of a free-running simulation. In contrast, the impact of the new dust scheme is large, with modelled dust AODs from simulations with the new dust scheme close to observations. Overall patterns and seasonal cycles of the total AOD are well depicted with, however, a systematic low bias over oceans. The comparison to the fractional MAC-v1 AOD climatology shows disagreements mostly over continents, while that to AERONET sites outlines the capability of the model to reproduce monthly climatologies under very diverse dominant aerosol types. Here again, underestimation of the total AOD appears in several cases, linked sometimes to insufficient efficiency of the aerosol transport away from the aerosol sources. Analysis of monthly time series at 166 AERONET sites shows, in general, correlation coefficients higher than 0.5 and lower model variance than observed. A large interannual variability can also be seen in the CALIOP vertical profiles over certain regions of the world. Overall, this prognostic aerosol scheme appears suitable for aerosol-climate studies. There is room, however, for implementing more complex parameterisations in relation to aerosols.

scholarly journals Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 4867-4873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Maraun ◽  
Martin Widmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Validation Period ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Free Running ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. We demonstrate both analytically and with a modelling example that cross-validation of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations is misleading. The underlying reasoning is as follows: a cross-validation can have in principle two outcomes. A negative (in the sense of not rejecting a null hypothesis), if the residual bias in the validation period after bias correction vanishes; and a positive, if the residual bias in the validation period after bias correction is large. It can be shown analytically that the residual bias depends solely on the difference between the simulated and observed change between calibration and validation periods. This change, however, depends mainly on the realizations of internal variability in the observations and climate model. As a consequence, the outcome of a cross-validation is also dominated by internal variability, and does not allow for any conclusion about the sensibility of a bias correction. In particular, a sensible bias correction may be rejected (false positive) and a non-sensible bias correction may be accepted (false negative). We therefore propose to avoid cross-validation when evaluating bias correction of free-running bias-corrected climate change simulations against observations. Instead, one should evaluate non-calibrated temporal, spatial and process-based aspects.

scholarly journals Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot–cirrus effect

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 17267-17289
Author(s):  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Johannes Hendricks ◽  
Christof Gerhard Beer
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Model Dynamics ◽  
Analogous Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A global aerosol–climate model, including a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme and a parametrization for aerosol-induced ice formation in cirrus clouds, is applied in order to quantify the impact of aviation soot on natural cirrus clouds. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to assess the uncertainties in this effect related to (i) the assumptions on the ice nucleation abilities of aviation soot, (ii) the representation of vertical updrafts in the model, and (iii) the use of reanalysis data to relax the model dynamics (the so-called nudging technique). Based on the results of the model simulations, a radiative forcing from the aviation soot–cirrus effect in the range of −35 to 13 mW m−2 is quantified, depending on the assumed critical saturation ratio for ice nucleation and active fraction of aviation soot but with a confidence level below 95 % in several cases. Simple idealized experiments with prescribed vertical velocities further show that the uncertainties on this aspect of the model dynamics are critical for the investigated effect and could potentially add a factor of about 2 of further uncertainty to the model estimates of the resulting radiative forcing. The use of the nudging technique to relax model dynamics is proved essential in order to identify a statistically significant signal from the model internal variability, while simulations performed in free-running mode and with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice concentrations are shown to be unable to provide robust estimates of the investigated effect. A comparison with analogous model studies on the aviation soot–cirrus effect show a very large model diversity, with a conspicuous lack of consensus across the various estimates, which points to the need for more in-depth analyses on the roots of such discrepancies.

scholarly journals Chemistry–climate interactions of aerosol nitrate from lightning

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1125-1142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holger Tost
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Aerosol Particles ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Aerosol Size Distribution ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lightning represents one of the dominant emission sources for NOx in the troposphere. The direct release of oxidised nitrogen in the upper troposphere does not only affect ozone formation, but also chemical and microphysical properties of aerosol particles in this region. This study investigates the direct impact of LNOx emissions on upper-tropospheric nitrate using a global chemistry climate model. The simulation results show a substantial influence of the lightning emissions on the mixing ratios of nitrate aerosol in the upper troposphere of more than 50 %. In addition to the impact on nitrate, lightning substantially affects the oxidising capacity of the atmosphere with substantial implications for gas-phase sulfate formation and new particle formation in the upper troposphere. In conjunction with the condensation of nitrates, substantial differences in the aerosol size distribution occur in the upper troposphere as a consequence of lightning. This has implications for the extinction properties of the aerosol particles and for the cloud optical properties. While the extinction is generally slightly enhanced due to the LNOx emissions, the response of the clouds is ambiguous due to compensating effects in both liquid and ice clouds. Resulting shortwave flux perturbations are of   ∼ −100 mW m−2 as determined from several sensitivity scenarios, but an uncertainty range of almost 50 % has to be defined due to the large internal variability of the system and the uncertainties in the multitude of involved processes. Despite the clear statistical significance of the influence of lightning on the nitrate concentrations, the robustness of the findings gradually decreases towards the determination of the radiative flux perturbations.

scholarly journals On the Choice of Ensemble Mean for Estimating the Forced Signal in the Presence of Internal Variability

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5681-5693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leela M. Frankcombe ◽  
Matthew H. England ◽  
Jules B. Kajtar ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Byron A. Steinman
Keyword(s):  
Regional Differences ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to diverge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the amplitude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CLaMS, KASIMA and ECHAM5/MESSy1 simulations in the lower stratosphere using observations of Odin/SMR and ILAS/ILAS-II

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1977-2020
Author(s):  
F. Khosrawi ◽  
R. Müller ◽  
M. H. Proffitt ◽  
R. Ruhnke ◽  
O. Kirner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Lagrangian Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. 1-year data sets of monthly averaged nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) derived from satellite measurements were used as a tool for the evaluation of atmospheric photochemical models. Two 1-year data sets, one derived from the Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer (ILAS and ILAS-II) and one from the Odin Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (Odin/SMR) were employed. Here, these data sets are used for the evaluation of two Chemical Transport Models (CTMs), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) as well as for one Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 (E5M1) in the lower stratosphere with focus on the Northern Hemisphere. Since the Odin/SMR measurements cover the entire hemisphere, the evaluation is performed for the entire hemisphere as well as for the low latitudes, midlatitudes and high latitudes using the Odin/SMR 1-year data set as reference. To assess the impact of using different data sets for such an evaluation study we repeat the evaluation for the polar lower stratosphere using the ILAS/ILAS-II data set. Only small differences were found using ILAS/ILAS-II instead of Odin/SMR as a reference, thus, showing that the results are not influenced by the particular satellite data set used for the evaluation. The evaluation of CLaMS, KASIMA and E5M1 shows that all models are in good agreement with Odin/SMR and ILAS/ILAS-II. Differences are generally in the range of ±20%. Larger differences (up to −40%) are found in all models at 500±25 K for N2O mixing ratios greater than 200 ppb. Generally, the largest differences were found for the tropics and the lowest for the polar regions. However, an underestimation of polar winter ozone loss was found both in KASIMA and E5M1 both in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals Influence of solar variability, CO<sub>2</sub> and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-460 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Servonnat ◽  
P. Yiou ◽  
M. Khodri ◽  
D. Swingedouw ◽  
S. Denvil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Orbital Forcing ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000–1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.106 km2, i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. This study suggests that regional reconstructions of the temperature between 1000 and 1850 AD are likely to show weak signatures of solar, CO2 and orbital forcings compared to internal variability.

scholarly journals Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Righi ◽  
Johannes Hendricks ◽  
Christof Gerhard Beer
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Model Dynamics ◽  
Analogous Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A global aerosol-climate model, including a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme and a parametrization for aerosol-induced ice formation in cirrus clouds, is applied in order to quantify the impact of aviation soot on natural cirrus clouds. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to assess the uncertainties in this effect related to (i) the assumptions on the ice nucleation abilities of aviation soot; (ii) the representation of vertical updrafts in the model; and (iii) the use of reanalysis data to relax the model dynamics (the so-called nudging technique). Based on the results of the model simulations, a radiative forcing from the aviation soot-cirrus effect in the range of −35 mW m−2 to 13 mW m−2 is quantified, depending on the assumed critical saturation ratio for ice nucleation and active fraction of aviation soot, but with a confidence level below 95 % in several cases. Simple idealized experiments with prescribed vertical velocities further show that the uncertainties on this aspect of the model dynamics are critical for the investigated effect and could potentially add a factor of about two of further uncertainty to the model estimates of the resulting radiative forcing. The use of the nudging technique to relax model dynamics is proved essential in order to identify a statistically significant signal from the model internal variability, while simulations performed in free-running mode and with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice concentrations are shown to be unable to provide robust estimates of the investigated effect. A comparison with analogous model studies on the aviation-soot cirrus effect show a very large model diversity, with a conspicuous lack of consensus across the various estimates, which points to the need for more in-depth analyses on the roots of such discrepancies.

scholarly journals The Key Role of Coupled Chemistry–Climate Interactions in Tropical Stratospheric Temperature Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (17) ◽  
pp. 7619-7629
Author(s):  
Simchan Yook ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Seo-Yeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Climate Interactions ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Do So

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to quantify the effects of coupled chemistry–climate interactions on the amplitude and structure of stratospheric temperature variability. To do so, the authors examine two simulations run on version 4 of the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Climate Model (WACCM): a “free-running” simulation that includes fully coupled chemistry–climate interactions and a “specified chemistry” version of the model forced with prescribed climatological-mean chemical composition. The results indicate that the inclusion of coupled chemistry–climate interactions increases the internal variability of temperature by a factor of ~2 in the lower tropical stratosphere and—to a lesser extent—in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere. The increased temperature variability in the lower tropical stratosphere is associated with dynamically driven ozone–temperature feedbacks that are only included in the coupled chemistry simulation. The results highlight the fundamental role of two-way feedbacks between the atmospheric circulation and chemistry in driving climate variability in the lower stratosphere.

scholarly journals The Met Office HadGEM3-ES chemistry–climate model: evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1209-1232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Hardiman ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Fiona M. O'Connor ◽  
Steven T. Rumbold
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Previous Model ◽  
Total Column Ozone ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Free Running ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry–climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere.

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