scholarly journals Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
Konstantinos Bischiniotis ◽  
Maarten van Aalst ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
...  

Abstract. In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary drivers of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in Southern and Eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of West and Central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness, and avoid misleading decision-makers.

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 4517-4524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
Konstantinos Bischiniotis ◽  
Maarten van Aalst ◽  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
...  

Abstract. In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242001
Author(s):  
Oluwafemi Emmanuel Awopegba ◽  
Amarachi Kalu ◽  
Bright Opoku Ahinkorah ◽  
Abdul-Aziz Seidu ◽  
Anthony Idowu Ajayi

Background Prenatal screening of pregnant women for HIV is central to eliminating mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) of HIV. While some countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have scaled up their prevention of MTCT programmes, ensuring a near-universal prenatal care HIV testing, and recording a significant reduction in new infection among children, several others have poor outcomes due to inadequate testing. We conducted a multi-country analysis of demographic and health surveys (DHS) to assess the coverage of HIV testing during pregnancy and also examine the factors associated with uptake. Methods We analysed data of 64,933 women from 16 SSA countries with recent DHS datasets (2015–2018) using Stata version 16. Adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models were used to examine correlates of prenatal care uptake of HIV testing. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results Progress in scaling up of prenatal care HIV testing was uneven across SSA, with only 6.1% of pregnant women tested in Chad compared to 98.1% in Rwanda. While inequality in access to HIV testing among pregnant women is pervasive in most SSA countries and particularly in West and Central Africa sub-regions, a few countries, including Rwanda, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia have managed to eliminate wealth and rural-urban inequalities in access to prenatal care HIV testing. Conclusion Our findings highlight the between countries and sub-regional disparities in prenatal care uptake of HIV testing in SSA. Even though no country has universal coverage of prenatal care HIV testing, East and Southern African regions have made remarkable progress towards ensuring no pregnant woman is left untested. However, the West and Central Africa regions had low coverage of prenatal care testing, with the rich and well educated having better access to testing, while the poor rarely tested. Addressing the inequitable access and coverage of HIV testing among pregnant women is vital in these sub-regions.


2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. R. Ntare ◽  
P. E. Olorunju ◽  
G. L. Hildebrand

Abstract Rosette is the most destructive virus disease of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Resistant cultivars have the greatest potential for minimizing the risk of losses due to the disease. The objectives of this study were to develop and evaluate new peanut breeding lines for reaction to rosette disease and determine their yield potential. Rosette-resistant parents were crossed with early maturing susceptible spanish types. The F2, F4, and F5 generations were grown in a rosette disease screening nursery. A modified bulk-pedigree method was followed in which the populations were grown in bulk until F4. Single plant selections were made in F4-derived F5 progenies. Yield assessment began with F7 lines from 1996 to 1998 growing seasons at three sites. High yielding rosette resistant lines with a maturity range of 90 to 115 d were identified. Some of these new lines produced pod yields significantly higher than the previously developed resistance varieties. Promising lines have been made available to researchers in West and Central Africa and should contribute to an integrated rosette disease management program.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armando Semo ◽  
Magdalena Gayà-Vidal ◽  
Cesar Fortes-Lima ◽  
Bérénice Alard ◽  
Sandra Oliveira ◽  
...  

AbstractThe Bantu expansion, which started in West Central Africa around 5,000 BP, constitutes a major migratory movement involving the joint spread of peoples and languages across sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the rich linguistic and archaeological evidence available, the genetic relationships between different Bantu-speaking populations and the migratory routes they followed during various phases of the expansion remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze the genetic profiles of southwestern and southeastern Bantu-speaking peoples located at the edges of the Bantu expansion by generating genome-wide data for 200 individuals from 12 Mozambican and 3 Angolan populations using ∼1.9 million autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms. Incorporating a wide range of available genetic data, our analyses confirm previous results favoring a “late split” between West and East Bantu speakers, following a joint passage through the rainforest. In addition, we find that Bantu speakers from eastern Africa display genetic substructure, with Mozambican populations forming a gradient of relatedness along a North-South cline stretching from the coastal border between Kenya and Tanzania to South Africa. This gradient is further associated with a southward increase in genetic homogeneity, and involved minimum admixture with resident populations. Together, our results provide the first genetic evidence in support of a rapid North-South dispersal of Bantu peoples along the Indian Ocean Coast, as inferred from the distribution and antiquity of Early Iron Age assemblages associated with the Kwale archaeological tradition.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bienvenu Salim Camara ◽  
Alexandre Delamou ◽  
Fassou Mathias Grovogui ◽  
Bregje Christina de Kok ◽  
Lenka Benova ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Most maternal deaths occur during the intrapartum and peripartum periods in sub-Saharan Africa, emphasizing the importance of timely access to quality health service for childbirth and postpartum care. Increasing facility births and provision of postpartum care has been the focus of numerous interventions globally, including in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this scoping review is to synthetize the characteristics and effectiveness of interventions to increase facility births or provision of postpartum care in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We searched for systematic reviews, scoping reviews, qualitative studies and quantitative studies using experimental, quasi experimental, or observational designs, which reported on interventions for increasing facility birth or provision of postpartum care in sub-Saharan Africa. These studies were published in English or French. The search comprised six scientific literature databases (Pubmed, CAIRN, la Banque de Données en Santé Publique, the Cochrane Library). We also used Google Scholar and snowball or citation tracking. Results Strategies identified in the literature as increasing facility births in the sub-Saharan African context include community awareness raising, health expenses reduction (transportation or user fee), non-monetary incentive programs (baby kits), or a combination of these with improvement of care quality (patient’s privacy, waiting time, training of provider), and or follow-up of pregnant women to use health facility for birth. Strategies that were found to increase provision of postpartum care include improvement of care quality, community-level identification and referrals of postpartum problems and transport voucher program. Conclusions To accelerate achievements in facility birth and provision of postpartum care in sub-Saharan Africa, we recommend strategies that can be implemented sustainably or produce sustainable change. How to sustainably motivate community actors in health interventions may be particularly important in this respect. Furthermore, we recommend that more intervention studies are implemented in West and Central Africa, and focused more on postpartum. Plain English summary In in sub-Saharan Africa, many women die when giving or few days after birth. This happens because they do not have access to good health services in a timely manner during labor and after giving birth. Worldwide, many interventions have been implemented to Increase the number of women giving birth in a health facility or receiving care from health professional after giving birth. The objective of this study is to synthetize the characteristics and effectiveness of interventions that have been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa, aiming to increase the number of women giving birth in a health facility or receiving care from health professional after birth. To proceed with this synthesis, we did a review of studies that have reported on such interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. These studies were published in English or French. The interventions identified to increase the number of women giving birth in a health facility include community awareness raising, reduction of health expenses (transportation or user fee), non-monetary incentive programs (baby kits), or a combination of these with improvement of care quality (patient’s privacy, waiting time, training of provider), and or follow-up of pregnant women to use health facility for birth. Interventions implemented to increase the number women receiving care from a health professional after birth include improvement of care quality, transport voucher program and community-level identification and referrals to the health center of mothers’ health problems. In sub-Saharan Africa, to accelerate increase in the number of women giving birth in a health facility and receiving care from a health professional after, we recommend interventions that can be implemented sustainably or produce sustainable change. How to sustainably motivate community actors in health interventions may be particularly important in this respect. Furthermore, we recommend the conduct in West and Central Africa, of more studies targeting interventions to increase the number of women giving birth in a health facility and or receiving care from a health professional after birth.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (S1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Réka Maulide Cane ◽  
Dessalegn Y. Melesse ◽  
Nkomba Kayeyi ◽  
Adom Manu ◽  
Yohannes Dibaba Wado ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa HIV transmission is a major challenge in adolescents, especially among girls and those living in urban settings. Major international efforts have aimed at reducing sexual transmission of HIV. This analysis aims to assess the trends in HIV prevalence by gender in adolescents, as well as urban–rural disparities. Methods HIV prevalence data at ages 15–19 years were obtained for 31 countries with a national survey since 2010 and for 23 countries with one survey circa 2005 and a recent survey circa 2015. Country medians and average annual rates of changes were used to summarize the trends for two subregions in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern and Southern Africa and West and Central Africa, which largely correspond with higher and lower HIV prevalence countries. Data on HIV incidence at ages 15–24 and prevalence at 5–9 and 10–14 years were reviewed from 11 recent national surveys. Trends in urban–rural disparities in HIV prevalence and selected indicators of sexual and HIV testing behaviours were assessed for females and males 15–24 years, using the same surveys. Results HIV prevalence among girls 15–19 years declined in eastern and Southern Africa from 5.7 to 2.6% during 2005–2015 (country median), corresponding with an average annual rate of reduction of 6.5% per year. Among boys, the median HIV prevalence declined from 2.1 to 1.2%. Changes were also observed in West and Central Africa where median HIV prevalence among girls decreased from 0.7 to 0.4% (average annual rate of reduction 5.9%), but not for boys (0.3%). Girl-boy differences at 10–14 years were small with a country median HIV of 1.0% and 1.3%, respectively. Urban females and males 15–24 had at least 1.5 times higher HIV prevalence than their rural counterparts in both subregions, and since the urban–rural declines were similar, the gaps persisted during 2005–2015. Conclusions HIV prevalence among adolescents declined in almost all countries during the last decade, in both urban and rural settings. The urban–rural gap persisted and HIV transmission to girls, but not boys, is still a major challenge in Eastern and Southern African countries.


2017 ◽  
Vol 155 (10) ◽  
pp. 1520-1540
Author(s):  
I. C. AKAOGU ◽  
B. BADU-APRAKU ◽  
V. O. ADETIMIRIN

SUMMARYMaize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple food and cash crop in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, its production and productivity are severely constrained by drought. A total of 120 single-cross hybrids and an open-pollinated control variety were evaluated for 2 years at two locations under managed drought and rain-fed conditions in Nigeria. The objective of the present study was to assess their performance, classify them into distinct heterotic groups and identify promising hybrids for commercialization in the West and Central Africa sub-region. General combining ability and specific combining ability mean squares were highly significant for grain yield and other traits under the research environments. However, there was a preponderance of additive gene action over non-additive. Only six out of 39 inbreds were classified into distinct heterotic groups by the testers. The highest-yielding drought-tolerant hybrid, TZEEI 102 × TZEEI 95, out-yielded the open-pollinated control variety by 43·70%. The average yield reduction under drought was 54·90% of the yield under rain-fed conditions. The hybrids TZEEI 81 × TZEE1 79, TZEEI 100 × TZEEI 63 and TZEEI 64 × TZEEI 79 were the highest-yielding and most stable across environments. These outstanding drought-tolerant hybrids, which are also resistant to Striga, have the potential to contribute to food security and increased incomes in SSA and should be tested extensively on-farm and commercialized.


2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAMES W. HANSEN ◽  
SIMON J. MASON ◽  
LIQIANG SUN ◽  
ARAME TALL

SUMMARYWe review the use and value of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to understanding and exploiting opportunities to realize more of its potential benefits. Interaction between the atmosphere and underlying oceans provides the basis for probabilistic forecasts of climate conditions at a seasonal lead-time, including during cropping seasons in parts of SSA. Regional climate outlook forums (RCOF) and national meteorological services (NMS) have been at the forefront of efforts to provide forecast information for agriculture. A survey showed that African NMS often go well beyond the RCOF process to improve seasonal forecast information and disseminate it to the agricultural sector. Evidence from a combination of understanding of how climatic uncertainty impacts agriculture, model-based ex-ante analyses, subjective expressions of demand or value, and the few well-documented evaluations of actual use and resulting benefit suggests that seasonal forecasts may have considerable potential to improve agricultural management and rural livelihoods. However, constraints related to legitimacy, salience, access, understanding, capacity to respond and data scarcity have so far limited the widespread use and benefit from seasonal prediction among smallholder farmers. Those constraints that reflect inadequate information products, policies or institutional process can potentially be overcome. Additional opportunities to benefit rural communities come from expanding the use of seasonal forecast information for coordinating input and credit supply, food crisis management, trade and agricultural insurance. The surge of activity surrounding seasonal forecasting in SSA following the 1997/98 El Niño has waned in recent years, but emerging initiatives, such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and ClimDev-Africa, are poised to reinvigorate support for seasonal forecast information services for agriculture. We conclude with a discussion of institutional and policy changes that we believe will greatly enhance the benefits of seasonal forecasting to agriculture in SSA.


Author(s):  
Claire H. Griffiths

Gabon, a small oil-rich country straddling the equator on the west coast of Africa, is the wealthiest of France’s former colonies. An early period of colonization in the 19th century resulted in disease, famine, and economic failure. The creation of French Equatorial Africa in 1910 marked the beginning of the sustained lucrative exploitation of Gabon’s natural resources. Gabon began off-shore oil production while still a colony of France. Uranium was also discovered in the last decade of the French Equatorial African empire. Coupled with rich reserves in tropical woods, Gabon has achieved, since independence in 1960, a higher level of export revenue per capita of population than any other country in sub-Saharan Africa in the postcolonial era. However, significant inequality has characterized access to wealth through paid employment throughout the recorded history of monetized labor. While fortunes have been amassed by a minute proportion of the female population of Gabon associated with the ruling regime, and a professional female middle-class has emerged, inequalities of opportunity and reward continue to mark women’s experience of life in this little-known country of West Central Africa. The key challenge facing scholars researching the history of women in Gabon remains the relative lack of historical resources. While significant strides have been made over the past decade, research on women’s history in Francophone Africa published in English or French remains embryonic. French research on African women began to make a mark in the last decade of colonization, notably with the work of Denise Paulme, but then remained a neglected area for decades. The publication in 1994 of Les Africaines by French historian Catherine Coquery-Vidrovitch was hailed at the time as a pioneering work in French historiography. But even this new research contained no analysis of and only a passing reference to women in Gabon.


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