An evaluation of the importance of spatial resolution in global climate and hydrological models based on the Rhine and Mississippi basins

Abstract. To study the global hydrological cycle and its response to a changing climate, we rely on global climate models (GCMs) and global hydrological models (GHMs). The spatial resolution of these models is restricted by computational resources and therefore limits the processes and level of detail that can be resolved. We assess and compare the benefits of an increased resolution for a GCM and a GHM for two basins with long observational records; the Rhine and Mississippi basins. Increasing the resolution of a GCM (1.125° to 0.25°) results in an improved precipitation budget over the Rhine basin, attributed to a more realistic large-scale circulation. These improvements with increased resolution are not found for the Mississippi basin, possibly because precipitation is strongly depending on the representation of still unresolved convective processes. Increasing the resolution of vegetation and orography in the high resolution GHM (from 0.5° to 0.05°) shows no significant differences in discharge for both basins, likely because the hydrological processes depend highly on model parameter values that are not readily available at high resolution. Increasing the resolution of the GCM improved the simulations of the monthly averaged discharge for the Rhine, but did not improve the representation of extreme streamflow events. For the Mississippi basin, no substantial differences in precipitation and discharge were found between the two resolutions input GCM and the two resolutions GHM. These findings underline that there is no trivial route from increasing spatial resolution to a more accurately simulated hydrological cycle at basin scale.

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An evaluation of the importance of spatial resolution in a global climate and hydrological model based on the Rhine and Mississippi basin

10.5194/hess-2017-473 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Imme Benedict ◽

Chiel C. van Heerwaarden ◽

Albrecht H. Weerts ◽

Wilco Hazeleger

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Scale ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Convective Processes ◽

Parameter Values

Abstract. The hydrological cycle of river basins can be simulated by combining global climate models (GCMs) and global hydrological models (GHMs). The spatial resolution of these models is restricted by computational resources and therefore limits the processes and level of detail that can be resolved. To further improve simulations of precipitation and river-runoff on a global scale, we assess and compare the benefits of an increased resolution for a GCM and a GHM. We focus on the Rhine and Mississippi basin. Increasing the resolution of a GCM (1.125° to 0.25°) results in more realistic large-scale circulation patterns over the Rhine and an improved precipitation budget. These improvements with increased resolution are not found for the Mississippi basin, most likely because precipitation is strongly dependent on the representation of still unresolved convective processes. Increasing the resolution of vegetation and orography in the high resolution GHM (from 0.5° to 0.05°) shows no significant differences in discharge for both basins, because the hydrological processes depend highly on other parameter values that are not readily available at high resolution. Therefore, increasing the resolution of the GCM provides the most straightforward route to better results. This route works best for basins driven by large-scale precipitation, such as the Rhine basin. For basins driven by convective processes, such as the Mississippi basin, improvements are expected with even higher resolution convection permitting models.

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The benefits of spatial resolution increase in global simulations of the hydrological cycle evaluated for the Rhine and Mississippi basins

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-23-1779-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (3) ◽

pp. 1779-1800 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Imme Benedict ◽

Chiel C. van Heerwaarden ◽

Albrecht H. Weerts ◽

Wilco Hazeleger

Keyword(s):

Spatial Resolution ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Physical Processes ◽

Convective Processes ◽

Computational Resources ◽

Open Question

Abstract. To study the global hydrological cycle and its response to a changing climate, we rely on global climate models (GCMs) and global hydrological models (GHMs). The spatial resolution of these models is restricted by computational resources and therefore limits the processes and level of detail that can be resolved. Increase in computer power therefore permits increase in resolution, but it is an open question where this resolution is invested best: in the GCM or GHM. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of increased resolution, without modifying the representation of physical processes in the models. By doing so, we can evaluate the benefits of resolution alone. We assess and compare the benefits of an increased resolution for a GCM and a GHM for two basins with long observational records: the Rhine and Mississippi basins. Increasing the resolution of a GCM (1.125 to 0.25∘) results in an improved precipitation budget over the Rhine basin, attributed to a more realistic large-scale circulation. These improvements with increased resolution are not found for the Mississippi basin, possibly because precipitation is strongly dependent on the representation of still unresolved convective processes. Increasing the resolution of the GCM improved the simulations of the monthly-averaged discharge for the Rhine, but did not improve the representation of extreme streamflow events. For the Mississippi basin, no substantial differences in precipitation and discharge were found with the higher-resolution GCM and GHM. Increasing the resolution of parameters describing vegetation and orography in the high-resolution GHM (from 0.5 to 0.05∘) shows no significant differences in discharge for both basins. A straightforward resolution increase in the GHM is thus most likely not the best method to improve discharge predictions, which emphasizes the need for better representation of processes and improved parameterizations that go hand in hand with resolution increase in a GHM.

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Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Earth System Dynamics Discussions ◽

10.5194/esdd-6-1-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 1-30 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

I. Giuntoli ◽

J.-P. Vidal ◽

C. Prudhomme ◽

D. M. Hannah

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Uncertainty Range ◽

Low Flows ◽

Hydrological Extremes ◽

High Flows

Abstract. Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) driven by Global Climate Models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using 6 GHMs and 5 GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a 2-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to envelope the overall uncertainty range and the need for improvements in modeling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes.

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Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 <i>midHolocene</i> simulations

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (5) ◽

pp. 1847-1872 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Chris M. Brierley ◽

Anni Zhao ◽

Sandy P. Harrison ◽

Pascale Braconnot ◽

Charles J. R. Williams ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Current Phase ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Global Mean Temperature ◽

Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

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An Assessment of Land–Atmosphere Interactions over South America Using Satellites, Reanalysis, and Two Global Climate Models

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-20-0132.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 22 (4) ◽

pp. 905-922

Author(s):

Jessica C. A. Baker ◽

Dayana Castilho de Souza ◽

Paulo Y. Kubota ◽

Wolfgang Buermann ◽

Caio A. S. Coelho ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South America ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Median Response ◽

Model Version

AbstractIn South America, land–atmosphere interactions have an important impact on climate, particularly the regional hydrological cycle, but detailed evaluation of these processes in global climate models has been limited. Focusing on the satellite-era period of 2003–14, we assess land–atmosphere interactions on annual to seasonal time scales over South America in satellite products, a novel reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and two global climate models: the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-1.2) and the U.K. Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3). We identify key features of South American land–atmosphere interactions represented in satellite and model datasets, including seasonal variation in coupling strength, large-scale spatial variation in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to surface moisture, and a dipole in evaporative regime across the continent. Differences between products are also identified, with ERA5-Land, HadGEM3, and BAM-1.2 showing opposite interactions to satellites over parts of the Amazon and the Cerrado and stronger land–atmosphere coupling along the North Atlantic coast. Where models and satellites disagree on the strength and direction of land–atmosphere interactions, precipitation biases and misrepresentation of processes controlling surface soil moisture are implicated as likely drivers. These results show where improvement of model processes could reduce uncertainty in the modeled climate response to land-use change, and highlight where model biases could unrealistically amplify drying or wetting trends in future climate projections. Finally, HadGEM3 and BAM-1.2 are consistent with the median response of an ensemble of nine CMIP6 models, showing they are broadly representative of the latest generation of climate models.

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Impact of climate model resolution on soil moisture projections in central-western Europe

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-23-191-2019 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 191-206 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Eveline C. van der Linden ◽

Reindert J. Haarsma ◽

Gerard van der Schrier

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

High Resolution ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Western Europe ◽

Climate Models ◽

High Spatial Resolution ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Soil Drying ◽

Model Resolution

Abstract. Global climate models project widespread decreases in soil moisture over large parts of Europe. This paper investigates the impact of model resolution on the magnitude and seasonality of future soil drying in central-western Europe. We use the general circulation model EC-Earth to study two 30-year periods representative of the start and end of the 21st century under low-to-moderate greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5). In our study area, central-western Europe, at high spatial resolution (∼25 km) soil drying is more severe and starts earlier in the season than at standard resolution (∼112 km). Here, changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local soil moisture feedbacks lead to enhanced evapotranspiration in spring and reduced precipitation in summer. A more realistic position of the storm track at high model resolution leads to reduced biases in precipitation and temperature in the present-day climatology, which act to amplify future changes in evapotranspiration in spring. Furthermore, in the high-resolution model a stronger anticyclonic anomaly over the British Isles extends over central-western Europe and supports soil drying. The resulting drier future land induces stronger soil moisture feedbacks that amplify drying conditions in summer. In addition, soil-moisture-limited evapotranspiration in summer promotes sensible heating of the boundary layer, which leads to a lower relative humidity with less cloudy conditions, an increase in dry summer days, and more incoming solar radiation. As a result a series of consecutive hot and dry summers appears in the future high-resolution climate. The enhanced drying at high spatial resolution suggests that future projections of central-western European soil drying by CMIP5 models have been potentially underestimated. Whether these results are robust has to be tested with other global climate models with similar high spatial resolutions.

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Tropical Cyclone Intensity Errors Associated with Lack of Two-Way Ocean Coupling in High-Resolution Global Simulations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-16-0273.1 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 29 (23) ◽

pp. 8589-8610 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

Colin M. Zarzycki

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Computational Cost ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Surface Boundary ◽

Community Atmosphere Model ◽

Slab Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly those that are intense and/or slow moving, induce sea surface temperature (SST) reductions along their tracks (commonly referred to as cold wakes) that provide a negative feedback on storm energetics by weakening surface enthalpy fluxes. While computing gains have allowed for simulated TC intensity to increase in global climate models as a result of increased horizontal resolution, many configurations utilize prescribed, noninteractive SSTs as a surface boundary condition to minimize computational cost and produce more accurate TC climatologies. Here, an idealized slab ocean is coupled to a 0.25° variable-resolution version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve closure of the surface energy balance and reproduce observed Northern Hemisphere cold wakes. This technique produces cold wakes that are realistic in structure and evolution and with magnitudes similar to published observations, without impacting large-scale SST climatology. Multimember ensembles show that the overall number of TCs generated by the model is reduced by 5%–9% when allowing for two-way air–sea interactions. TC intensity is greatly impacted; the strongest 1% of all TCs are 20–30 hPa (4–8 m s−1) weaker, and the number of simulated Saffir–Simpson category 4 and 5 TCs is reduced by 65% in slab ocean configurations. Reductions in intensity are in line with published thermodynamic theory. Additional offline experiments and sensitivity simulations demonstrate this response is both significant and robust. These results imply caution should be exercised when assessing high-resolution prescribed SST climate simulations capable of resolving intense TCs, particularly if discrete analysis of extreme events is desired.

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Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-6-267-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 267-285 ◽

Cited By ~ 66

Author(s):

I. Giuntoli ◽

J.-P. Vidal ◽

C. Prudhomme ◽

D. M. Hannah

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Uncertainty Range ◽

Low Flows ◽

Hydrological Extremes ◽

High Flows

Abstract. Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

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Extreme Events in High Resolution CMCC Regional and Global Climate Models

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.1960499 ◽

2011 ◽

Author(s):

Enrico Scoccimarro ◽

Silvio Gualdi ◽

Antonella Sanna ◽

Edoardo Bucchignani ◽

Myriam Montesarchio

Keyword(s):

High Resolution ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models

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Global climatology and trends in convective environments from ERA5 and rawinsonde data

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ◽

10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mateusz Taszarek ◽

John T. Allen ◽

Mattia Marchio ◽

Harold E. Brooks

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

The Past ◽

The Tropics ◽

Rawinsonde Data

AbstractGlobally, thunderstorms are responsible for a significant fraction of rainfall, and in the mid-latitudes often produce extreme weather, including large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. Despite this importance, how the global frequency of thunderstorms and their accompanying hazards has changed over the past 4 decades remains unclear. Large-scale diagnostics applied to global climate models have suggested that the frequency of thunderstorms and their intensity is likely to increase in the future. Here, we show that according to ERA5 convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective precipitation (CP) have decreased over the tropics and subtropics with simultaneous increases in 0–6 km wind shear (BS06). Conversely, rawinsonde observations paint a different picture across the mid-latitudes with increasing CAPE and significant decreases to BS06. Differing trends and disagreement between ERA5 and rawinsondes observed over some regions suggest that results should be interpreted with caution, especially for CAPE and CP across tropics where uncertainty is the highest and reliable long-term rawinsonde observations are missing.

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