scholarly journals Review 'A stochastic model for drought risk analysis in The Netherlands'

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anonymous
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Drought Risk

scholarly journals A stochastic model for drought risk analysis in The Netherlands

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse ◽  
Marjolein J. P. Mens ◽  
Hector Macian-Sorribes ◽  
Femke Schasfoort
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Historic Time ◽  
Synthetic Time Series ◽  
Hydrological Variables

Abstract. Population growth and economic developments increase the demand for water resources. Furthermore, climate change is often projected to have negative impacts on the availability of these water resources. Measures to reduce the risk of water shortages can be costly and often require long-term planning strategies. In the decision making process, a thorough understanding of these drought-related risks for the various water users is of crucial importance. Historic time series of climatologic and hydrological variables, used as input for water allocation and drought impact models, are generally too short to provide such a detailed understanding. This makes the case for using lengthy synthetic time series. The challenge is to develop synthetic time series that are realistic and representative for the current and future climate conditions. We present a stochastic model for generating realistic times series of meteorological and hydrological variables that characterise drought events. The model is applied to a case study in the Netherlands, but is generic in set-up and can thus be applied elsewhere as well. It is demonstrated that the main features of the historic time series are well reproduced. The generated synthetic times series provide valuable insights into the frequency and severity of droughts and help improve the assessment of drought risks.

Public health risk analysis of European bat lyssavirus infection in The Netherlands

2008 ◽  
Vol 137 (6) ◽  
pp. 803-809 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. TAKUMI ◽  
P. H. C. LINA ◽  
W. H. M. VAN DER POEL ◽  
J. A. KRAMPS ◽  
J. W. B. VAN DER GIESSEN
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Companion Animals ◽  
Public Health Risk ◽  
Northern Half ◽  
Viral Particles ◽  
Bat Rabies ◽  
Eptesicus Serotinus

SUMMARYWe present the frequency and the nature of contact incidents of the Serotine bat,Eptesicus serotinus, with humans and with companion animals (specifically cats and dogs), in The Netherlands between 2000 and 2005. Out of 17 bats in bite contact with humans, five tested positive for European bat lyssavirus (EBLV) type 1a. Cats had the most numerous contacts with bats (49 times) but a relatively low number of these bats were EBLV positive (six times). We estimated that the average incidence of human bat rabies infection might be between once per year and once per 700 years, depending mainly on the number of infectious viral particles in bat saliva. The risk of bat rabies is higher between April and October, and in the northern half of the country. This is the first study in Europe describing the risk of human bat rabies after bat contact incidents.

scholarly journals ANALISIS RISIKO KEKERINGAN DI KABUPATEN BANTUL PROVINSI D.I. YOGYAKARTA

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
Annisa Mu'awanah Sukmawati ◽  
Puji Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Quantitative Research Methods ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

Bantul Regency is a district in Yogyakarta Province which has geographic, geological, hydrological, and demographic characteristics that are likely to cause drought. Drought event in Bantul Regency may have significant impacts on various aspects in line with the characteristics of drought impacts which are complex and cross-sectoral. This study addresses to analyze the level of risk of drought with observation units in 75 villages in the Bantul Regency. The risk analysis was carried out by comparing the time period of the 10 years, i.e. 2008 and 2018 to observe the shift of risk areas of drought in Bantul Regency. The research was conducted using quantitative research methods with quantitative descriptive and mapping analysis. The analysis steps are drought hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, and drought risk analysis. The analysis shows that during the last 10 years, Kabupaten Bantul has been experiencing an increasing number of villages classified as high risk of drought, both in urban and rural areas. In 2008 there were 15 villages (20%) and increased to 21 villages (28%) in 2018 that were classified as very very high level. Meanwhile, in 2008 there were 30 villages (40%) in 2008 and increased to 32 villages (42.7%) in 2018 that were classified as very high level. It caused by the increasing probability of drought as well as vulnerability. The analysis results can be used as input for stakeholders to take mitigation and anticipation actions to reduce the impact of drought based on the spatial characteristics of the risk areas.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Analysis, Forecasting and Assessment under Climate Change

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1862 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tae-Woong Kim ◽  
Muhammad Jehanzaib
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Risk Estimation ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Meteorological Modeling

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the world’s biggest challenges in the 21st century. Drought risk analysis, forecasting and assessment are facing rapid expansion, not only from theoretical but also practical points of view. Accurate monitoring, forecasting and comprehensive assessments are of the utmost importance for reliable drought-related decision-making. The framework of drought risk analysis provides a unified and coherent approach to solving inference and decision-making problems under uncertainty due to climate change, such as hydro-meteorological modeling, drought frequency estimation, hybrid models of forecasting and water resource management. This Special Issue will provide researchers with a summary of the latest drought research developments in order to identify and understand the profound impacts of climate change on drought risks and water resources. The ten peer-reviewed articles collected in this Special Issue present novel drought monitoring and forecasting approaches, unique methods for drought risk estimation and creative frameworks for environmental change assessment. These articles will serve as valuable references for future drought-related disaster mitigations, climate change interconnections and food productivity impacts.

Optimizing Risk Analysis Relating to External Safety in The Netherlands

Risk Analysis ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josee C.M. Eijndhoven ◽  
Ardaan Ravenzwaaij
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
The Netherlands

scholarly journals A rainfall model for drought risk analysis in south-east UK

2013 ◽  
Vol 166 (10) ◽  
pp. 519-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Duan ◽  
Neil McIntyre ◽  
Christian Onof
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Rainfall Model

scholarly journals A quickscan pest risk analysis for the Meloidogyne mali

2016 ◽  
pp. 350-360
Author(s):  
L.A. Pylypenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Root Knot Nematode ◽  
Pest Risk Analysis ◽  
Pest Risk

A quickscan pest risk analysis for the apple root-knot nematode Meloidogyne mali for the territory of Ukraine was performed. This assessment was initiated in response to the recent (2012/2013) interception of the apple root-knot nematode in the Netherlands and Italy and because of the species inclusion on the EPPO Alert List in 2014. The risk of M. mali introduction, establishment and economic impact in Ukraine was assessed as likely, which proved the need for specific statutory actions to be taken to prevent ingress of the apple root-knot nematode and mitigate its effects in Ukraine. It is stated that the detailed pest risk analysis is required.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document