Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Abstract. Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail at detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operation of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad hoc empirical approaches, FRIDA is fully automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi-Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought-prone and highly regulated Mediterranean water resource system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the formulation of an ad hoc “state index” is used for triggering drought management measures. The state index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the 1980s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ). Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25-year-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs set.

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Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

10.5194/hess-2017-565 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Marta Zaniolo ◽

Matteo Giuliani ◽

Andrea Castelletti ◽

Manuel Pulido-Velázquez

Keyword(s):

Ad Hoc ◽

Water System ◽

Management Plan ◽

Efficient Solutions ◽

Automatic Design ◽

Drought Management ◽

Pumping Wells ◽

Extraction Algorithm ◽

State Index ◽

Available Information

Abstract. Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail in detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operations of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad-hoc, empirical approaches, FRIDA is fully-automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi Equally Informative Subset Selection W_GEISS which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought prone, highly regulated Mediterranean water system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the formulation of an ad-hoc State Index is used for triggering drought restraining measures. The State Index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the '80s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from Confederaciòn Hidrogràfica del Jùcar. Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25 years-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs' set.

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FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS OF PIEZOELECTRIC ELASTICITY WITH SINGULAR INPLANE ELECTROELASTIC FIELDS

International Journal of Computational Methods ◽

10.1142/s0219876206000837 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 03 (01) ◽

pp. 115-135 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

MENG-CHENG CHEN ◽

JIAN-JUN ZHU ◽

K. Y. SZE

Keyword(s):

Finite Element ◽

Ad Hoc ◽

Wedge Angle ◽

Electric Displacement ◽

Weak Form ◽

Efficient Solutions ◽

Element Formulation ◽

Displacement Fields ◽

Element Analysis ◽

Electroelastic Fields

An ad hoc one-dimensional finite element formulation is developed for the eigenanalysis of inplane singular electroelastic fields at material and geometric discontinuities in piezoelectric elastic materials by using the eigenfunction expansion procedure and the weak form of the governing equations for prismatic sectorial domains composed of piezoelectrics, composites or air. The order of the electroelastic singularities and the angular variation of the stress and electric displacement fields are obtained with the formulation. The influence of wedge angle, polarization orientation, material types, and boundary and interface conditions on the singular electroelastic fields and the order of their singularity are also examined. The simplicity and accuracy of the formulation are demonstrated by comparison to several analytical solutions for piezoelectric and composite multi-material wedges. The nature and speed of convergence suggests that the present eigensolution could be used in developing hybrid elements for use along with standard elements to yield accurate and computationally efficient solutions to problems having complex global geometries leading to singular electroelastic states.

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Revision and Compilation of Health Management Plan of Khair (Acacia catechu)

Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources ◽

10.33002/nr2581.6853.03012 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 15-28

Author(s):

Rajeev Bhattarai ◽

Puja Sharma ◽

Bishnu Wagle ◽

Angel Adhikari ◽

Suman Acharya

Keyword(s):

South Asian ◽

Root Rot ◽

Ganoderma Lucidum ◽

Health Management ◽

Management Plan ◽

Spiritual Needs ◽

The People ◽

Acacia Catechu ◽

Available Information ◽

South Asian Region

Acacia catechu (Khair) is one of the significant tree species evolved together with Nepali communities. The tree is widely used for medicinal purposes, feeding the livestock, fulfilling the structural needs, and satisfying religious and spiritual needs. Despite the wide use and importance of this tree, the available publications have failed to address the risks the tree is vulnerable to, and develop a management design to overcome these threats. Due to these reasons, the people are growing the Khair trees without any robust health management plan. The abundance and overall importance of this tree in the South Asian region strongly demands an interpretative and comprehensive way of its cultivation. This study is aimed towards bringing together the available information on Khair and finally coming up with an advantageous management plan that can deal with all the hazards the tree is prone to, and help in the production of healthy and of economically high-value timber. This study only deals with two of the several prevalent fungal stresses-Ganoderma lucidum and Fomes badius, causing root rot and heart rot, respectively, putting the tree under risk. The heart rot and root rot are capable of destroying the whole site rendering the trees useless for consumption. The findings from this study can help cultivators know the nature of the diseases and their occurrences and improve the way of cultivating the tree and take prompt actions on the syndromes.

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Mammals of the Natural National Park Selva de Florencia, Caldas, Colombia

Therya ◽

10.12933/therya-21-1101 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 461-475

Author(s):

Héctor E. Ramírez-Chaves ◽

Daniela Velásquez-Guarín ◽

Juan D. Ocampo-Velásquez ◽

Ingrith Y. Mejía-Fontecha ◽

Amilvia E. Acosta ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Management Plan ◽

Camera Traps ◽

Mammal Species ◽

Natural Park ◽

Natural Parks ◽

Biogeographic Provinces ◽

Trapping Methods ◽

Definition Of ◽

Available Information ◽

Diverse Groups

The Department of Caldas, Central Andes of Colombia, has two National Natural Parks protecting strategic Andean ecosystems. However, the available information on mammals in these protected areas has not been compiled or updated recently. Here, we present an updated inventory of the mammals present in the Selva de Florencia National Natural Park. To construct the inventory, we used historical (museum vouchers) and recent records obtained during field activities over the last 20 years. We used several trapping methods including Sherman and Tomahawk traps, mist nets, and camera traps. We documented 81 mammal species belonging to nine orders, 25 families and 59 genera. Bats (Chiroptera: 30 spp.), rodents (Rodentia: 17 spp.), and carnivores (Carnivora: 13 spp.) were the most diverse groups, representing 73.2 % of recorded species. We also recorded orders such as Didelphimorphia (8 species), Primates (5), Pilosa (3), Artiodactyla (2), Cingulata (2), and Eulipotyphla (1). Also, we recorded two endemic species (Marmosops chucha and Cryptotis colombianus) and two new species for the Department of Caldas (Bassaricyon neblina and Heteromys aff. anomalus). These species constitute elements of the Andean region and the Nor-Andean and Chocó-Magdalena biogeographic provinces. We highlight the presence of four endangered primates (Aotus lemurinus, Ateles hybridus, Cebus versicolor, and Saguinus leucopus), two of which are endemic to Colombia: S. leucopus and C. versicolor. This work is the baseline to update the management plan of the protected area, from the review of its conservation targets, the definition of the specific management goals, to its effective monitoring.

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Histology of Tritia mutabilis gonads: using reproductive biology to support sustainable fishery management

Aquatic Living Resources ◽

10.1051/alr/2021006 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 34 ◽

pp. 6

Author(s):

Alicia Mallet ◽

Jean-Yves Jouvenel ◽

Morgane Broyon ◽

Nelly Pirot ◽

Benjamin Geffroy

Keyword(s):

Reproductive Biology ◽

Fishery Management ◽

Shell Height ◽

Management Plan ◽

Small Scale ◽

Breeding Period ◽

Management Measures ◽

Baseline Information ◽

Sustainable Fishery ◽

First Maturity

The mutable nassa, Tritia mutabilis, a marine gastropod that is widely exploited on the Adriatic coast is an important source of income for small-scale fishermen in the Mediterranean Sea, particularly in the Gulf of Lion. However, the lack of knowledge on the ecology and biology of this species limits our capacities to propose and produce an effective management plan. As a result, stocks are currently declining, especially in Italy. In order to optimize a management plan for this fishery, we designed a study to better characterize the reproductive biology of T. mutabilis, using gonad histology and performing a regular monitoring of population size frequency. The average shell height of individuals during the breeding period was 24 ± 2.7 mm for males and 30 ± 3.7 mm for females. The presence of small females (10 mm) and large males (32 mm) in the whole sample challenged previous assumptions regarding protandry (sex change from male to female). The size at first maturity was estimated for males and females at 17.5 mm and 24.4 mm shell height, respectively. In Italy, current management measures include a minimum conservation reference size of 20 mm in shell height. Therefore, it is likely that many individuals that did not reproduce are being caught, which could partly explain the decline observed, despite conservation measures introduced more than ten years ago. Overall, our study provides some baseline information to establish, in consultation with fishermen, management measures for this small-scale fishery in France.

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Assessing fitness-for-purpose and comparing the suitability of COVID-19 multi-country models for local contexts and users

Gates Open Research ◽

10.12688/gatesopenres.13224.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 ◽

pp. 79

Author(s):

Hannah Clapham ◽

Mohamed Gad ◽

Adrian Gheorghe ◽

Raymond Hutubessy ◽

Itamar Megiddo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Model Comparison ◽

Ad Hoc ◽

Policy Decision ◽

Flow Chart ◽

Fitness For Purpose ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Local Contexts ◽

Policy Decision Making ◽

Available Information

Background: Mathematical models have been used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to inform policymaking decisions. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was established to provide country governments, particularly low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and other model users with an overview of the aims, capabilities and limits of the main multi-country COVID-19 models to optimise their usefulness in the COVID-19 response. Methods: Seven models were identified that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the model comparison and had creators that were willing to participate in this analysis. A questionnaire, extraction tables and interview structure were developed to be used for each model, these tools had the aim of capturing the model characteristics deemed of greatest importance based on discussions with the Policy Group. The questionnaires were first completed by the CMCC Technical group using publicly available information, before further clarification and verification was obtained during interviews with the model developers. The fitness-for-purpose flow chart for assessing the appropriateness for use of different COVID-19 models was developed jointly by the CMCC Technical Group and Policy Group. Results: A flow chart of key questions to assess the fitness-for-purpose of commonly used COVID-19 epidemiological models was developed, with focus placed on their use in LMICs. Furthermore, each model was summarised with a description of the main characteristics, as well as the level of engagement and expertise required to use or adapt these models to LMIC settings. Conclusions: This work formalises a process for engagement with models, which is often done on an ad-hoc basis, with recommendations for both policymakers and model developers and should improve modelling use in policy decision making.

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Anadromous Sturgeons: Habitats, Threats, and Management

Anadromous Sturgeons: Habitats, Threats, and Management ◽

10.47886/9781888569919.ch9 ◽

2007 ◽

Keyword(s):

North Carolina ◽

Fishery Management ◽

Management Plan ◽

Atlantic Sturgeon ◽

Alosa Sapidissima ◽

Management Measures ◽

Cape Hatteras ◽

Stock Information ◽

Mixed Stock ◽

Acipenser Oxyrinchus

Abstract.â€”Declines in Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus abundance in the early 1990s led the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) to prepare a mandatory fishery management plan. The principal management measures are fishery closure, bycatch assessment, and bycatch reduction in other ASMFC-managed fisheries (i.e., American shad Alosa sapidissima). To better understand Atlantic sturgeon geographic distribution and habitat use, as well as risk of bycatch, we examined offshore distribution of Atlantic sturgeon based on incidental captures in winter tagging cruises conducted off the coasts of Virginia and North Carolina, including in and near extensive sand shoals adjacent to Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras. From 1988 to 2006, 146 juvenile Atlantic sturgeon were captured by bottom trawling in depths from 9.1 to 21.3 m. Numbers of Atlantic sturgeon captured and tagged in a given year ranged from 0 (1993, 1995) to 29 (2006). Atlantic sturgeon were encountered in 4.2% of tows, with the percentage varying from 0 in 1993 and 1995 to 12.6% in 1988. Capture patterns suggested that Atlantic sturgeon were likely aggregating to some degree. Total lengths of captured Atlantic sturgeon ranged from 577 to 1,517 mm (mean of 967 mm), suggesting that most fish were juveniles. Limited tag returns and genetic data suggest that fish wintering off North Carolina constitute a mixed stock. Information about their distribution and habitat utilization should benefit fishery managers seeking to reduce bycatch and protect key habitats.

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Pollination interactions promoting plant invasions.

Plant invasions: the role of biotic interactions ◽

10.1079/9781789242171.0004 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 67-89

Author(s):

Ana Montero-Castaño ◽

◽

Anna Traveset ◽

Keyword(s):

Plant Species ◽

Native Plants ◽

Plant Invasions ◽

Invasion Success ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

Native Plant Species ◽

Introduced Plants ◽

Management Measures ◽

Available Information ◽

Animal Pollination

Most plant species rely on, or benefit from, animal pollination. Therefore, pollination interactions are expected to play a key role in the reproduction and invasion success of non-native plants in their new areas. Understanding this role will allow us to better predict certain plant invasions. Also, it will allow us to explore the potential of invasion management measures based on disrupting or avoiding pollination interactions. In this chapter we review the available information on reproductive systems and their degree of dependence on animal-mediated pollination of non-native plant species. We review the characteristics of resident pollinators feeding on non-native plants and the different environmental setups that allow or impede non-native plants to reproduce in their new areas. Finally, we explore the scarce literature on invasion management measures based on disrupting pollination interactions and discuss their potentiality. Evidence so far shows that animal pollination does not usually act as an effective barrier to invasion. Most introduced plants are able to receive suitable pollination service from resident pollinators, while others are able to minimize their reliance on pollinators through different mechanisms (e.g. selfing or asexual reproduction). The environmental settings where the introduction occurs (for instance, the presence of neighbours with similar or dissimilar flower morphologies), can play an important role on the success or failure of non-native plants overcoming reproductive barriers. Although it seems that most introduced plants do not face pollination barriers, we consider that, for certain species, the disruption or avoidance of pollination interactions as control or prevention measures deserve further exploration.

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