scholarly journals Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 637-651
Author(s):  
Michel Le Page ◽  
Younes Fakir ◽  
Lionel Jarlan ◽  
Aaron Boone ◽  
Brahim Berjamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Training Dataset ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Crop Coefficients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular, and continuously decreasing water resources. In some regions, the proper growth both in terms of cropping density and surface area of irrigated areas is so significant that it needs to be included in future scenarios. A method for estimating the future evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the Tensift watershed, Morocco. Monthly synthetic crop coefficients (Kc) of the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote sensing observations. An empirical model using the synthetic Kc and rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data for each of the different irrigated areas within the study area. The model consists of a system of equations that takes into account the monthly trend of Kc, the impact of yearly rainfall, and the saturation of Kc due to the presence of tree crops. The impact of precipitation change is included in the Kc estimate and the water budget. The anthropogenic impact is included in the equations for Kc. The impact of temperature change is only included in the reference evapotranspiration, with no impact on the Kc cycle. The model appears to be reliable with an average r2 of 0.69 for the observation period (2000–2016). However, different subsampling tests of the number of calibration years showed that the performance is degraded when the size of the training dataset is reduced. When subsampling the training dataset to one-third of the 16 available years, r2 was reduced to 0.45. This score has been interpreted as the level of reliability that could be expected for two time periods after the full training years (thus near to 2050). The model has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (< 2 %), while the two agricultural scenarios were strongly contrasted both spatially and in terms of their impact on water resources. The approach is generic and can be refined by incorporating irrigation efficiencies.

scholarly journals Projection of irrigation water demand based on the simulation of synthetic crop coefficients and climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Le Page ◽  
Younes Fakir ◽  
Lionel Jarlan ◽  
Aaron Boone ◽  
Brahim Berjamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Management Plan ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Flexible System ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Crop Coefficients

Abstract. In a context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the Southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular and continuously decreasing water resources. In some regions, the proper dynamic of irrigated areas is very important so that it is needed to include it in future scenarios. A method for estimating the future evolution of irrigation water requirements is proposed and tested in the Tensift watershed, Morocco. Monthly synthetic crop coefficients (Kc) of the different irrigated areas were obtained from a time series of remote sensing observations. An empirical model using the synthetic Kc and rainfall was developed and fitted to the actual data. The model appears to be reliable with an average r2 of 0.69 for the observation period (2000–2016). The sub sampling tests suggested that a loss of performance (r2 = 0.45) is to be expected for two time periods after the observations (2050). This flexible system of equations has been used to reinterpret a local water management plan and to incorporate two downscaled climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The examination of irrigation water requirements until 2050 revealed that the difference between the two climate scenarios was very small (

scholarly journals Irrigation water requirements for seed corn and coffee under potential climate change scenarios

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Fares ◽  
Ripendra Awal ◽  
Samira Fares ◽  
Alton B. Johnson ◽  
Hector Valenzuela
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Percolation ◽  
Canopy Interception ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Seed Corn ◽  
The Impact

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on the irrigation water requirements (IRRs) of two major agricultural crops (coffee and seed corn) in Hawai'i was studied using the Irrigation Management System (IManSys) model. In addition to IRRs calculations, IManSys calculates runoff, deep percolation, canopy interception, and effective rainfall based on plant growth parameters, site specific soil hydrological properties, irrigation system efficiency, and long-term daily weather data. Irrigation water requirements of two crops were simulated using historical climate data and different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5, ±10 and ±20%) chosen based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under reference, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. IRRs decreased as CO2 emission increased. The average percentage decrease in IRRs for seed corn is higher than that of coffee. However, runoff, rain canopy interception, and deep percolation below the root zone increased as precipitation increased. Canopy interception and drainage increased with increased CO2 emission. Evapotranspiration responded positively to air temperature rise, and as a result, IRRs increased as well. Further studies using crop models will predict crop yield responses to these different irrigation scenarios.

Building quantitative scenarios of irrigation under climatic and anthropogenic changes in the mediterranean area: application to Morocco

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fakir Younes ◽  
Le Page Michel ◽  
Jarlan Lionel ◽  
Boone Aaron ◽  
Berjamy Brahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Crop Coefficient ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand ◽  
Southern Mediterranean

&lt;p&gt;In a context of major changes (climate, demography, economy, etc.), the Southern Mediterranean area faces serious challenges with intrinsically low, irregular and continuously decreasing water resources. A method for translating a narrative scenario of irrigation water requirements into a quantitative scenario is presented. At first, we propose to describe the Irrigation Water Requirements (IWR) of any area by a single equation. IWR depends on climate (ET0, Rainfall), crop development estimated from remote sensing time series (crop coefficient/NDVI relationships), and four efficiencies parameters. In a second part, a reference model of the crop coefficient monthly cycle ( ) is proposed by empirically relating to rainfall and NDVI. Three variations of the model are compared in order to make a projection until 2050 based on downscaled climate change scenarios. The reliability of the model depends on the representativeness of the calibration period: It is considered to be high at the beginning of the simulation (RMSE below 0.1), but it deteriorates as the calibrating period gets shorter compared to the objective period: r&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;= 0.5, RMSE = [0.1-0.14], stderr = [0.02-0.03] by 2050. An alternative scenario is built upon the reference by interpreting the narrative as bending points. Finally, the examination of irrigation water demand until 2050 suggests that the difference between the two climate scenarios is very small (&lt;2%), while the two proposed agricultural scenarios are strongly contrasted both spatially and in their impact on water resources.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noora Veijalainen ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Mika Marttunen ◽  
Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽  
Ritva Britschgi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

scholarly journals The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Näschen ◽  
Bernd Diekkrüger ◽  
Mariele Evers ◽  
Britta Höllermann ◽  
Stefanie Steinbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff Generation in an Andean Glacier Watershed

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3547
Author(s):  
Rossana Escanilla-Minchel ◽  
Hernán Alcayaga ◽  
Marco Soto-Alvarez ◽  
Christophe Kinnard ◽  
Roberto Urrutia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
South Central ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Impact

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, 3.8% of the world’s glacier area is concentrated in Chile. The country has been strongly affected by the mega drought, which affects the south-central area and has produced an increase in dependence on water resources from snow and glacier melting in dry periods. Recent climate change has led to an elevation of the zero-degree isotherm, a decrease in solid-state precipitation amounts and an accelerated loss of glacier and snow storage in the Chilean Andes. This situation calls for a better understanding of future water discharge in Andean headwater catchments in order to improve water resources management in glacier-fed populated areas. The present study uses hydrological modeling to characterize the hydrological processes occurring in a glacio-nival watershed of the central Andes and to examine the impact of different climate change scenarios on discharge. The study site is the upper sub-watershed of the Tinguiririca River (area: 141 km2), of which nearly 20% is covered by Universidad Glacier. The semi-distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model + Glacier (SRM+G) was forced with local meteorological data to simulate catchment runoff. The model was calibrated on even years and validated on odd years during the 2008–2014 period and found to correctly reproduce daily runoff. The model was then forced with downscaled ensemble projected precipitation and temperature series under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and the glacier adjusted using a volume-area scaling relationship. The results obtained for 2050 indicate a decrease in mean annual discharge (MAD) of 18.1% for the lowest emission scenario and 43.3% for the most pessimistic emission scenario, while for 2100 the MAD decreases by 31.4 and 54.2%, respectively, for each emission scenario. Results show that decreasing precipitation lead to reduced rainfall and snowmelt contributions to discharge. Glacier melt thus partly buffers the drying climate trend, but our results show that the peak water occurs near 2040, after which glacier depletion leads to reducing discharge, threatening the long-term water resource availability in this region.

scholarly journals Coupling Remote Sensing and Hydrological Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in Data-Scarce Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 14025
Author(s):  
Fazlullah Akhtar ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Christian Borgemeister ◽  
Bernhard Tischbein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

scholarly journals Estimating Sectoral Water Demand for Sindh Province of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 398-406
Author(s):  
Heman Das Lohano ◽  
Fateh Muhammad Marri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Sindh Province ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Water Demand

Water resources in Sindh province of Pakistan are under significant pressure due to increasing and conflicting water demand from municipalities for domestic users, agriculture and industries, and requirements of environmental flows. Population growth and climate change are likely to pose serious challenges to households and economic sectors that depend on water. This study estimates the present water demand from municipalities, agriculture and industries, and its future projections by the year 2050 in Sindh. The study also evaluates the impact of climate change on sectoral water demand and assesses the water requirements for the environmental flows. The results show that presently the total water demand for these sectors in Sindh is 44.06 Million Acre Feet (MAF). Agriculture is the largest consumer of water, accounting for 95.24 percent of the total water demand. Municipal water demand accounts for 2.61 percent while industrial water demand accounts for 1.88 percent. The demand for water in these sectors is expected to rise by 10 percent from 2018 to 2050. Moreover, depending on climate change scenario, the total water demand in these three sectors is likely to rise by 16 to 25 percent from 2018 to 2050. In additions, water requirements for the environmental flows have been indicated as 10 MAF in the National Water Accord of 1991. The findings of this study call for policy measures and strategies for management of water resources in Sindh.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

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