Less rain, more water in ponds: a remote sensing study of the dynamics of surface waters from 1950 to present in pastoral Sahel (Gourma region, Mali)
Abstract. Changes in the flood regime of ponds in the Gourma region from 1950 to present are studied by remote sensing, in the general context of the current multi-decennial Sahel drought. The seasonal and interannual variations of the areas covered by surface water are assessed using multi-date and multi-sensor satellite images (SPOT, FORMOSAT, LANDSAT-MSS, -TM, and -ETM, CORONA, and MODIS) and aerial photographs (IGN). Water body classification is adapted to each type of spectral resolution, with or without a middle-infrared band, and each spatial resolution, using linear unmixing for mixed pixels of MODIS data. The high-frequency MODIS data document the seasonal cycle, with an abrupt rise early in wet season and a progressive decrease in the dry season. They also provide a base to study the inter-annual variability of the flood regime, with sharp contrasts between dry years such as 2004 (low and early maximal area) and wetter years such as 2001 and 2002 (respectively high and late maximal area). The highest water level reached annually greatly depends on the volume, intensity and timing of rain events. However, the overall reduction by 20% of annual rains of the current period, compared to the 50' and 60', is concomitant with an apparently paradoxical large increase in the area of surface water, starting from the late 1980's. Spectacular for the two study cases of Agoufou and Ebang Mallam, for which time series covering the 1954-present period exist, this increase also reaches 98% between 1975 and 2002 for 92 ponds identified in central Gourma. Ponds with turbid waters and no aquatic vegetation are responsible for this increase, more pronounced to the north of the study zone. Possible causes of this change in surface water volume and regime are discussed based on differential changes in ponds dynamics related to the specifics in topography, soil texture and vegetation cover over the watershed. Changes in rain pattern and in ponds sedimentation are ruled out, and the impact of changes in land use, limited in the area, is found secondary, as opposed to what has often been advocated for in cultivated Sahel. Instead, major responsibility is attributed to increased runoff triggered by the lasting impact of the 1970–1980's droughts on the vegetation and on the hydric system over shallow soils.