scholarly journals Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 459-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. te Linde ◽  
P. Bubeck ◽  
J. E. C. Dekkers ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Potential Damage

Abstract. In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters) can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €), compared with the second (80 billion €) and third (62 billion €) highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

scholarly journals Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 4129-4142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Daniels ◽  
Geert Lenderink ◽  
Ronald Hutjes ◽  
Albert Holtslag
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Type ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Change Scenario

Abstract. The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3–5 and 2–5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7–8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2–6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change-Related Flood Risks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenden Jongman ◽  
Hessel C. Winsemius ◽  
Stuart A. Fraser ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Losses

The flooding of rivers and coastlines is the most frequent and damaging of all natural hazards. Between 1980 and 2016, total direct damages exceeded $1.6 trillion, and at least 225,000 people lost their lives. Recent events causing major economic losses include the 2011 river flooding in Thailand ($40 billion) and the 2013 coastal floods in the United States caused by Hurricane Sandy (over $50 billion). Flooding also triggers great humanitarian challenges. The 2015 Malawi floods were the worst in the country’s history and were followed by food shortage across large parts of the country. Flood losses are increasing rapidly in some world regions, driven by economic development in floodplains and increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events and global sea level due to climate change. The largest increase in flood losses is seen in low-income countries, where population growth is rapid and many cities are expanding quickly. At the same time, evidence shows that adaptation to flood risk is already happening, and a large proportion of losses can be contained successfully by effective risk management strategies. Such risk management strategies may include floodplain zoning, construction and maintenance of flood defenses, reforestation of land draining into rivers, and use of early warning systems. To reduce risk effectively, it is important to know the location and impact of potential floods under current and future social and environmental conditions. In a risk assessment, models can be used to map the flow of water over land after an intense rainfall event or storm surge (the hazard). Modeled for many different potential events, this provides estimates of potential inundation depth in flood-prone areas. Such maps can be constructed for various scenarios of climate change based on specific changes in rainfall, temperature, and sea level. To assess the impact of the modeled hazard (e.g., cost of damage or lives lost), the potential exposure (including buildings, population, and infrastructure) must be mapped using land-use and population density data and construction information. Population growth and urban expansion can be simulated by increasing the density or extent of the urban area in the model. The effects of floods on people and different types of buildings and infrastructure are determined using a vulnerability function. This indicates the damage expected to occur to a structure or group of people as a function of flood intensity (e.g., inundation depth and flow velocity). Potential adaptation measures such as land-use change or new flood defenses can be included in the model in order to understand how effective they may be in reducing flood risk. This way, risk assessments can demonstrate the possible approaches available to policymakers to build a less risky future.

Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change and land use and land cover change variables on runoff and sediment discharge

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huilan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Sediment Discharge ◽  
Runoff Depth

<p>Climate change and various human activities have resulted in noticeable changes in watershed hydrological and soil erosion regimes. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted to distinguish between the effects of climate variables and those of land use and land cover change (LUCC) variables on runoff and sediment discharge in a watershed located at upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Statistical analysis results revealed significant and slight increasing trends in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Abrupt changes occurred in 1974 and 1995, which divided the entire time series into a decrease–increase–decrease tendency pattern; this pattern was the response to climate changes and the Reforestation and Returning Farmland to Forest project in China. In addition, redundancy analysis was used for partition statistical analyses, and the contributions of climate change and LUCC to runoff and sediment discharge were at the ratio of 4:1. Since 1990, the effect of LUCC has increased notably and its relationship with hydrological variables changed from positive to negative in approximately 1995. Finally, simulations performed using the distributed Basic Pollution Calculation Center (BPCC) model confirmed that climate and LUCC variables reduced the runoff depth and sediment load between 1980 and 2003. The contributions of climate fluctuation and LUCC to runoff depth were at the ratio of 5:1, and those to sediment load were at the ratio of 3:1, which exhibited the dominant role of climate change and the high sensitivity of sediment load to human interference. Overall, the results of distributed hydrological modeling were consistent with those of statistical analyses. The results provided detailed information and explained the mechanics underlying hydrological processes and soil erosion.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3455-3471 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Poussin ◽  
P. Bubeck ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
P. J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Reduction Capacity ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Abstract. Flood risk throughout Europe has increased in the last few decades, and is projected to increase further owing to continued development in flood-prone areas and climate change. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of semi-structural and non-structural measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk beyond the local level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a modelling framework using the Damagescanner model with land-use and inundation maps for 2000 and 2030 was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, in the southeast of the Netherlands. The research suggests that annual flood risk may increase by up to 185% by 2030 compared with 2000, as a result of combined land-use and climate changes. The independent contributions of climate change and land-use change to the simulated increase are 108% and 37%, respectively. The risk-reduction capacity of the implementation of spatial zoning measures, which are meant to limit and regulate developments in flood-prone areas, is between 25% and 45%. Mitigation factors applied to assess the potential impact of three mitigation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and the combination of dry- and wet-proofing) in residential areas show that these strategies have a risk-reduction capacity of between 21% and 40%, depending on their rate of implementation. Combining spatial zoning and mitigation measures could reduce the total increase in risk by up to 60%. Policy implications of these results are discussed. They focus on the undertaking of effective mitigation measures, and possible ways to increase their implementation by households.

Sustainable Land Use and Watershed Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts

2011 ◽  
pp. 328-348
Author(s):  
Nguyen Kim Loi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Watershed Management ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Paradigm Shifts ◽  
Methodology Development

With the changes in climatic, biophysical, socio-cultural, economic, and technological components, paradigm shifts in natural resources management are unavoidably and have to be adapted/modified to harmonize with the global changes and the local communities’ needs. This chapter focuses on sustainable land use and watershed management in response to climate change impacts. The first part covers some definitions and background on sustainable land use, watershed management approach, and sustainable watershed management. The second part describes the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) and Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) model focusing on the framework for a planning and decision making, computer-based system for supporting spatial decisions. The mathematical programming has been reviewed focusing on optimization algorithms that include optimization modeling and simulation modeling for decision making. Finally, the example of methodology development for sustainable land use and watershed management in response to climate change in Dong Nai watershed, Vietnam is presented.

Sustainable Land Use and Watershed Management in Response to Climate Change Impacts

2013 ◽  
pp. 2080-2101
Author(s):  
Nguyen Kim Loi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Watershed Management ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Paradigm Shifts ◽  
Methodology Development

With the changes in climatic, biophysical, socio-cultural, economic, and technological components, paradigm shifts in natural resources management are unavoidably and have to be adapted/modified to harmonize with the global changes and the local communities’ needs. This chapter focuses on sustainable land use and watershed management in response to climate change impacts. The first part covers some definitions and background on sustainable land use, watershed management approach, and sustainable watershed management. The second part describes the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) and Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) model focusing on the framework for a planning and decision making, computer-based system for supporting spatial decisions. The mathematical programming has been reviewed focusing on optimization algorithms that include optimization modeling and simulation modeling for decision making. Finally, the example of methodology development for sustainable land use and watershed management in response to climate change in Dong Nai watershed, Vietnam is presented.

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