scholarly journals Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1613-1622 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joop de Boer ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Teun Terpstra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Climate Risk

scholarly journals Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies for Soybean Production Systems on the Flood-Prone Pampas under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187
Author(s):  
Wouter Julius Smolenaars ◽  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Saskia Werners ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Sowing Season

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.

scholarly journals Influence of flood risk characteristics on flood insurance demand: a comparison between Germany and the Netherlands

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1691-1705 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Seifert ◽  
W. J. W. Botzen ◽  
H. Kreibich ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Private Insurance ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Insurance Demand ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Demand For Insurance

Abstract. The existence of sufficient demand for insurance coverage against infrequent losses is important for the adequate function of insurance markets for natural disaster risks. This study investigates how characteristics of flood risk influence household flood insurance demand based on household surveys undertaken in Germany and the Netherlands. Our analyses confirm the hypothesis that willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance against medium-probability medium-impact flood risk in Germany is higher than WTP for insurance against low-probability high-impact flood risk in the Netherlands. These differences in WTP can be related to differences in flood experience, individual risk perceptions, and the charity hazard. In both countries there is a need to stimulate flood insurance demand if a relevant role of private insurance in flood loss compensation is regarded as desirable, for example, by making flood insurance compulsory or by designing information campaigns.

From risk assessment to adaptation pathways: improvement of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis for the Limari basin in Chile

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christianne Luger ◽  
Ad Jeuken ◽  
Koen Verbist ◽  
Saket Pande ◽  
Andrew Warren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Informed Decision ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Overall Acceptability ◽  
In Series

<p>The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) framework incorporates the uncertainties of climate change that impact project planning, socioeconomic justification, and engineering design into a step-wise and collaborative planning process to guide a technical analyst to low-regret risk- and cost-effective solutions; <br>Research has been carried out to demonstrate and improve, through additional guidelines, the usability of CRIDA, in a pilot for the Limari basin in Chile. The added guidelines (1) offer the analyst numerically based justifications for analytical decisions to ensure a more structured application of CRIDA and (2) improves on co-design aspects by incorporating stakeholder risk perceptions and opinions explicitly in the process. <br>The Limari Basin has experienced an increase in drought frequency and severity over the last decades. A strategic approach for adaptation is recommended through CRIDA based on an evaluation of the future risk to climate change and the confidence in this analysis and a subsequent systematic assessments of adaptation options. The resulting strategy requires the increase of water supply robustness by adding new water sources that can be implemented in combination with flexible measures for managing demand (i.e. implementing agricultural meshes and improving irrigation efficiency) in parallel or in series to create adaptation pathways.<br>The study demonstrated the functionality of CRIDA. While the added guidelines required more processing time, subjectivity in the method is reduced thus also reducing possible bias introduced by the analyst. In addition, overall acceptability of the proposed strategies is improved by incorporating stakeholder risk perceptions and opinions explicitly in the process.</p>

scholarly journals Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 459-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. te Linde ◽  
P. Bubeck ◽  
J. E. C. Dekkers ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
Rhine Basin ◽  
Potential Damage

Abstract. In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters) can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €), compared with the second (80 billion €) and third (62 billion €) highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

scholarly journals The identity approach for assessing socio-technical resilience to climate change: example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2139-2146 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Gersonius ◽  
R. Ashley ◽  
C. Zevenbergen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Technical System ◽  
The Face

Abstract. Recent EU guidance on adaptation calls for the enhancement of socio-technical resilience to climate change. However, socio-technical resilience is relatively poorly defined and this makes it difficult to apply in practice. This paper uses the concept of identity as a vehicle to advance the definition and assessment of socio-technical resilience. Identity comprises four aspects (components, relationships, innovation, and continuity) that constitute the minimum of what has to be identified and specified if resilience is to be assessed. Characterising the identity of a socio-technical system requires the conceptualisation of these four aspects in relation to the particular function provided by the system (e.g. flood risk management) and also the identification of the specific variables and thresholds that reflect changes in identity. We have demonstrated the utility of the identity approach, using the example of flood risk management for the Island of Dordrecht, the Netherlands. Based on the results, socio-technical resilience has been redefined as the ability of the system to continue to function as expected in the face of change. This definition implies that a system is resilient when it can deliver performance without a change of identity by continuing compliance with standards and expectations.

scholarly journals How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170300 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. K. J. McDermott ◽  
S. Surminski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Making ◽  
The City

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting ‘acceptable risk levels' and identifying ‘adequate’ protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process—this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

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