scholarly journals Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3455-3471 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Poussin ◽  
P. Bubeck ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
P. J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Reduction Capacity ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Abstract. Flood risk throughout Europe has increased in the last few decades, and is projected to increase further owing to continued development in flood-prone areas and climate change. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of semi-structural and non-structural measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk beyond the local level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a modelling framework using the Damagescanner model with land-use and inundation maps for 2000 and 2030 was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, in the southeast of the Netherlands. The research suggests that annual flood risk may increase by up to 185% by 2030 compared with 2000, as a result of combined land-use and climate changes. The independent contributions of climate change and land-use change to the simulated increase are 108% and 37%, respectively. The risk-reduction capacity of the implementation of spatial zoning measures, which are meant to limit and regulate developments in flood-prone areas, is between 25% and 45%. Mitigation factors applied to assess the potential impact of three mitigation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and the combination of dry- and wet-proofing) in residential areas show that these strategies have a risk-reduction capacity of between 21% and 40%, depending on their rate of implementation. Combining spatial zoning and mitigation measures could reduce the total increase in risk by up to 60%. Policy implications of these results are discussed. They focus on the undertaking of effective mitigation measures, and possible ways to increase their implementation by households.

scholarly journals Implementation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): a Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Davey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
United Nations General ◽  
The Impact

Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures a complicated process and community livelihoods are being seriously impacted. The current local community reality is that climate change and associated disasters are becoming more intense, unpredictable, frequent and costly impacting on rural and urban areas. Disaster Risk Reduction is very important. United Nations General Assembly already set the global policy with the hope that the impact of future disaster events on the community is substantially reduced. Solutions to internal refugee crises start at the local level and require that everyone plays a part: every city, every neighbourhood including farming areas, and every individual can contribute. Leaders must create spaces where everyone can live in safety, become self-reliant, and contribute to and participate in their local community, and not allow people to shift into slum areas after disasters strike. The UNISDR suggests community’s use of the recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction phases after a disaster to increase the resilience of nations and communities; through integrating disaster risk reduction measures into the restoration of physical infrastructure and societal systems, and into the revitalization of livelihoods, economies, and the environment.

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

scholarly journals Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toon Haer ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Vincent van Roomen ◽  
Harry Connor ◽  
Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost–benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Engström ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
John Hassler ◽  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change-induced damage to the global economy and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land-use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) framework. Taking emissions from the land-use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 "Taking the green road"). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change-Related Flood Risks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brenden Jongman ◽  
Hessel C. Winsemius ◽  
Stuart A. Fraser ◽  
Sanne Muis ◽  
Philip J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Flood Losses

The flooding of rivers and coastlines is the most frequent and damaging of all natural hazards. Between 1980 and 2016, total direct damages exceeded $1.6 trillion, and at least 225,000 people lost their lives. Recent events causing major economic losses include the 2011 river flooding in Thailand ($40 billion) and the 2013 coastal floods in the United States caused by Hurricane Sandy (over $50 billion). Flooding also triggers great humanitarian challenges. The 2015 Malawi floods were the worst in the country’s history and were followed by food shortage across large parts of the country. Flood losses are increasing rapidly in some world regions, driven by economic development in floodplains and increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events and global sea level due to climate change. The largest increase in flood losses is seen in low-income countries, where population growth is rapid and many cities are expanding quickly. At the same time, evidence shows that adaptation to flood risk is already happening, and a large proportion of losses can be contained successfully by effective risk management strategies. Such risk management strategies may include floodplain zoning, construction and maintenance of flood defenses, reforestation of land draining into rivers, and use of early warning systems. To reduce risk effectively, it is important to know the location and impact of potential floods under current and future social and environmental conditions. In a risk assessment, models can be used to map the flow of water over land after an intense rainfall event or storm surge (the hazard). Modeled for many different potential events, this provides estimates of potential inundation depth in flood-prone areas. Such maps can be constructed for various scenarios of climate change based on specific changes in rainfall, temperature, and sea level. To assess the impact of the modeled hazard (e.g., cost of damage or lives lost), the potential exposure (including buildings, population, and infrastructure) must be mapped using land-use and population density data and construction information. Population growth and urban expansion can be simulated by increasing the density or extent of the urban area in the model. The effects of floods on people and different types of buildings and infrastructure are determined using a vulnerability function. This indicates the damage expected to occur to a structure or group of people as a function of flood intensity (e.g., inundation depth and flow velocity). Potential adaptation measures such as land-use change or new flood defenses can be included in the model in order to understand how effective they may be in reducing flood risk. This way, risk assessments can demonstrate the possible approaches available to policymakers to build a less risky future.

scholarly journals Planning Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Flood Reduction and Thermal Comfort Enhancement

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majidi ◽  
Vojinovic ◽  
Alves ◽  
Weesakul ◽  
Sanchez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Flood Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction

As a consequence of climate change and urbanization, many cities will have to deal with more flooding and extreme heat stress. This paper presents a framework to maximize the effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) for flood risk reduction and thermal comfort enhancement. The framework involves an assessment of hazards with the use of models and field measurements. It also detects suitable implementation sites for NBS and quantifies their effectiveness for thermal comfort enhancement and flood risk reduction. The framework was applied in a densely urbanized study area, for which different small-scale urban NBS and their potential locations for implementation were assessed. The overall results show that the most effective performance in terms of flood mitigation and thermal comfort enhancement is likely achieved by applying a range of different measures at different locations. Therefore, the work presented here shows the potential of the framework to achieve an effective combination of measures and their locations, which was demonstrated on the case of the Sukhumvit area in Bangkok (Thailand). This can be particularly suitable for assessing and planning flood mitigation measures in combination with heat stress reduction.

scholarly journals The Land Use and Cover Change in Miombo Woodlands under Community Based Forest Management and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation: A Case of Southern Highlands of Tanzania

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. J. Lupala ◽  
L. P. Lusambo ◽  
Y. M. Ngaga ◽  
Angelingis A. Makatta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Miombo Woodlands ◽  
Miombo Woodland ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cover Density ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Land Use And Cover

In Tanzania, miombo woodland is the most significant forest vegetation with both ecological and socioeconomic importance. The vegetation has been threatened from land use and cover change due to unsustainable utilization. Over the past two decades, community based forest management (CBFM) has been practiced to address the problem. Given the current need to mitigate global climate change, little is known on the influence of CBFM to the land use and cover change in miombo woodlands and therefore compromising climate change mitigation strategies. This study explored the dynamic of land use and covers change and biomass due to CBFM and established the implication to climate change mitigation. The study revealed increasing miombo woodland cover density with decreasing unsustainable utilization. The observed improvement in cover density and biomass provides potential for climate change mitigation strategies. CBFM also developed solidarity, cohesion, and social control of miombo woodlands illegal extraction. This further enhances permanence, reduces leakage, and increases accountability requirement for carbon credits. Collectively with these promising results, good land use plan at village level and introduction of alternative income generating activities can be among the best options to further reduce land use change and biomass loss in miombo woodlands.

scholarly journals Leishmaniasis and Climate Change—Case Study: Argentina

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Daniel Salomón ◽  
María Gabriela Quintana ◽  
Andrea Verónica Mastrángelo ◽  
María Soledad Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Scale Models ◽  
Vector Borne

Vector-borne diseases closely associated with the environment, such as leishmaniases, have been a usual argument about the deleterious impact of climate change on public health. From the biological point of view interaction of different variables has different and even conflicting effects on the survival of vectors and the probability transmission of pathogens. The results on ecoepidemiology of leishmaniasis in Argentina related to climate variables at different scales of space and time are presented. These studies showed that the changes in transmission due to change or increase in frequency and intensity of climatic instability were expressed through changes in the probability of vector-human reservoir effective contacts. These changes of contact in turn are modulated by both direct effects on the biology and ecology of the organisms involved, as by perceptions and changes in the behavior of the human communities at risk. Therefore, from the perspective of public health and state policy, and taking into account the current nonlinear increased velocity of climate change, we concluded that discussing the uncertainties of large-scale models will have lower impact than to develop-validate mitigation strategies to be operative at local level, and compatibles with sustainable development, conservation biodiversity, and respect for cultural diversity.

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