scholarly journals Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1641-1657 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Elmer ◽  
J. Hoymann ◽  
D. Düthmann ◽  
S. Vorogushyn ◽  
H. Kreibich
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Land Use Scenario

Abstract. The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk changes. We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate change, land-use change and changes in building values. We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario amount to more than 360 million € for all time steps. Based on effective values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million € in 1990 to 361 million € in 2000 and 348 million € in 2020 (maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111% (effective values: 146%) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121% (effective values: 115%) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area. With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany following the German reunification, value developments only have minor influence on the development of flood risk.

scholarly journals Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 286
Author(s):  
Dingrao Feng ◽  
Wenkai Bao ◽  
Meichen Fu ◽  
Min Zhang ◽  
Yiyu Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Pattern Change ◽  
Land Use Dynamics ◽  
The Future ◽  
Xi’An City

Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

scholarly journals Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2859-2876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
Heiko Apel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

scholarly journals Distribution of Flood Risk Area in Bodri Watershed of Kendal Regency

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-69
Author(s):  
Husna Fauzia ◽  
◽  
Eka Cahyaningsih ◽  
Hery Hariyanto ◽  
Satya Nugraha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Central Java

Flooding is a catastrophic phenomenon that can occur due to various factors, such as uncontrolled landuse changes, climate change, and weather anomalies, and drainage infrastructure damage. The Bodri watershed in Kendal Regency is one of the watersheds in Central Java, which is categorized as critical based on Decree No.328/Menhut-II/2009. Some of the problems in the Bodri watershed include land use that is not suitable for its designation, flooding, erosion, and landslides. This study aims to conduct spatial modeling to create flood hazard maps and flood risk level maps in the Bodri watershed. The method used is hydrograph analysis, flood modeling, potential flood hazards, and flood risk levels. Analysis of the potential for flood hazards from the spatial modeling inundation map with the input of the flood peak return period of 2 years (Q2), 5 years (Q5), and 50 years (Q50). Vulnerability analysis based on land use maps of flood hazard areas. The distribution of flood-prone areas in the Bodri watershed is in Pidodo Kulon Village, Pidodo Wetan Village, and Bangunsari Village.

scholarly journals Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 3485-3527 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Cammerer ◽  
A. H. Thieken ◽  
J. Lammel
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Loss Functions ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Residential Sector ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Flood Loss ◽  
Loss Data

Abstract. Flood loss modeling is an important component within flood risk assessments. Traditionally, stage-damage functions are used for the estimation of direct monetary damage to buildings. Although it is known that such functions are governed by large uncertainties, they are commonly applied – even in different geographical regions – without further validation, mainly due to the lack of data. Until now, little research has been done to investigate the applicability and transferability of such damage models to other regions. In this study, the last severe flood event in the Austrian Lech Valley in 2005 was simulated to test the performance of various damage functions for the residential sector. In addition to common stage-damage curves, new functions were derived from empirical flood loss data collected in the aftermath of recent flood events in the neighboring Germany. Furthermore, a multi-parameter flood loss model for the residential sector was adapted to the study area and also evaluated by official damage data. The analysis reveals that flood loss functions derived from related and homogenous regions perform considerably better than those from more heterogeneous datasets. To illustrate the effect of model choice on the resulting uncertainty of damage estimates, the current flood risk for residential areas was assessed. In case of extreme events like the 300 yr flood, for example, the range of losses to residential buildings between the highest and the lowest estimates amounts to a factor of 18, in contrast to properly validated models with a factor of 2.3. Even if the risk analysis is only performed for residential areas, more attention should be paid to flood loss assessments in future. To increase the reliability of damage modeling, more loss data for model development and validation are needed.

scholarly journals Impacts of Urban Sprawl on Livability in Kaduna Metropolis, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 334-343
Author(s):  
Nuhu H. Tini ◽  
Bartholomew Joshua Light
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Urban Poor ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Public Facility ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The City

Urban sprawl is a global phenomenon in the contemporary era. It is mostly taking place in the less developed countries due to natural increase and consistent movement of people into the mega cities and large urban centers. The phenomenon has globally gained attention from diverse researchers in the field of urban geography, environmental studies, city and region planning in view of its significant influence on the urban environment. However, the effect of sprawl on urban livability and economy in Nigerian cities is scarcely investigated especially in Northern Nigeria. This research explores the social and economic effects of urban sprawl in Kaduna metropolis. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) Technologies were applied for the analysis. The study found that Kaduna metropolis has experienced a progressive increase in the built-up area; in 2006 it had an aerial coverage of 13,980 hectares, a rise of 107.91% from 2001 aerial coverage of 6724 hectares. In 2012, the city had an aerial coverage of 15,808 hectares, an increase of 13.08% from 2006. Conversely, there has been a remarkable decrease in percentage of vegetation (1,458 hectares) and agricultural (11,739 hectares) land areas. In turn, such changes has adversely affected urban facilities or utilities such as pipe-borne water, electricity, health facilities, schools, security, transportation, wastewater infrastructures and fire safety services, which has become overstressed. Economic crisis has manifested in the rise of unemployment and escalating number of urban poor. Residential land use has encroached into open spaces while commercial activities overrun residential areas. Increase in distance and journey time make travel cost unbearable to the common man. These and social fragmentation retard livability in the city. Thus calls for a balance sustainable development in Kaduna metropolis and effective management of urban growth by the Kaduna Capital Development Board Authority. In due course, smart growth policy, growth management, urban containment, effective land use planning and public facility adequacy have been recommended to foster viable urban growth in Kaduna city and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Estimating historical land use patterns in Amazonia for hydrological studies

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 189-197
Author(s):  
Christiane Cavalcante Leite ◽  
Marcos Heil Costa ◽  
Ranieri Carlos Ferreira de Amorim
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
Historical Land Use ◽  
Past Land Use

The evaluation of the impacts of land-use change on the water resources has been, many times, limited by the knowledge of past land use conditions. Most publications on this field present only a vague description of the past land use, which is usually insufficient for more comprehensive studies. This study presents the first reconstruction of the historical land use patterns in Amazonia, that includes both croplands and pasturelands, for the period 1940-1995. During this period, Amazonia experienced the fastest rates of land use change in the world, growing 4-fold from 193,269 km2 in 1940 to 724,899 km2 in 1995. This reconstruction is based on a merging of satellite imagery and census data, and provides a 5'x5' yearly dataset of land use in three different categories (cropland, natural pastureland and planted pastureland) for Amazonia. This dataset will be an important step towards understanding the impacts of changes in land use on the water resources in Amazonia.

scholarly journals Impacts of land use change scenarios on hydrology and land use patterns in the Wu-Tu watershed in Northern Taiwan

2007 ◽  
Vol 80 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 111-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Pin Lin ◽  
Nien-Ming Hong ◽  
Pei-Jung Wu ◽  
Chen-Fa Wu ◽  
Peter H. Verburg
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Northern Taiwan

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE LAND USE IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ECONOMIC APPROACH

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 27-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID HAIM ◽  
RALPH J. ALIG ◽  
ANDREW J. PLANTINGA ◽  
BRENT SOHNGEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Net Returns

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and projections from integrated assessment models of agricultural prices and agricultural and forestry yields. For both scenarios, we project large increases in urban land by the middle of the century, while the largest declines are in cropland area. Significant differences among regions in the projected patterns of land-use change are evident, including an expansion of forests in the Mountain and Plains regions with declines elsewhere. Comparisons to projections with no climate change effects on prices and yields reveal relatively small differences. Thus, our findings suggest that future land-use patterns in the U.S. will be shaped largely by urbanization, with climate change having a relatively small influence.

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