scholarly journals Risk assessment of debris flow in Yushu seismic area in China: a perspective for the reconstruction

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2957-2968 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. X. Lan ◽  
L. P. Li ◽  
Y. S. Zhang ◽  
X. Gao ◽  
H. J. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Yushu Earthquake ◽  
Settlement Area ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
Hollow Brick ◽  
Hazard Area

Abstract. The 14 April 2010 Ms = 7.1 Yushu Earthquake (YE) had caused severe damage in the Jiegu township, the residential centre of Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, China. In view of the fragile geological conditions after YE, risk assessment of secondary geohazards becomes an important concern for the reconstruction. A quantitative methodology was developed to assess the risk of debris flow by taking into account important intensity information. Debris flow scenarios were simulated with respect to rainfall events with 10, 50 and 100 yr returning period, respectively. The possible economic loss and fatalities caused by damage to buildings were assessed both in the settlement area and in the low hazard settlement area regarding the simulated debris flow events. Three modelled building types were adopted, i.e. hollow brick wood (HBW), hollow brick concrete (HBC) and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. The results suggest that HBC structure achieves a good balance for the cost-benefit relationship compared with HBW and RC structures and thus could be an optimal choice for most of the new residential buildings in the Jiegu township. The low hazard boundary presents significant risk reduction efficiency in the 100 yr returning debris flow event. In addition, the societal risk for the settlement area is unacceptable when the 100 yr returning event occurs but reduces to ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable) level as the low hazard area is considered. Therefore, the low hazard area was highly recommended to be taken into account in the reconstruction. Yet, the societal risk might indeed approach an unacceptable level if one considers that YE has inevitably increased the occurrence frequency of debris flow. The quantitative results should be treated as a perspective for the reconstruction rather than precise numbers of future losses, owing to the complexity of the problem and the deficiency of data.

Risk Assessment of 2011 Debris Flow Hazard Area in Yongin City

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-178
Author(s):  
Gou-moon Choi ◽  
Seung Woo Lee ◽  
Chan-Young Yune
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Hazard Area ◽  
Debris Flow Hazard

Explosion Recurrence Modelling

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sirous F. Yasseri ◽  
Jake Prager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Life Time ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
The North ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Explosion Load

This paper describes a recurrence law for explosions. The proposed recurrence law fits quite well to the historic explosion data in residential buildings as well as to the data on offshore installations in the North Sea. Generally quantified explosion risk assessment is performed for offshore installations, since it is believed historic data does not correspond to a specific installation and it may not be appropriate for use in performance based explosion engineering, which may in itself require realistic load description of explosion recurrence. The goodness-of-fit of the model for explosion occurrence data obtained using the quantified risk assessment method is also discussed. The paper then introduces the concept of performance-based design, which is an attempt to design structures with predictable performance under explosion loading. Performance objectives such as life safety, collapse prevention, or immediate resumption of operation are used to define the state of an installation following a design explosion. The recurrence law is then used to associate a level of explosion load to each limit state using a desirable level of probability of exceedance during the installations life time.

Fuzzy Matter-Element Evaluation Method for Analysis of Debris Flow Risk Assessment

2012 ◽  
Vol 446-449 ◽  
pp. 3058-3061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun Tan ◽  
Jian Ping Chen ◽  
Yu Zhen Pan ◽  
Cen Cen Niu ◽  
Li Ming Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Information Entropy ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Matter Element Analysis ◽  
Concept Of Information

Based on the principle of fuzzy matter-element analysis, the concept of information entropy is introduced to establish a fuzzy matter-element evaluation method. This method is utilized to comprehensively evaluate the degree of debris flow. The classifications of debris flow are regarded as the objects of matter-element and their indexes for evaluation as well as the corresponding fuzzy values are used to construct the composite fuzzy matter-elements. By calculating the relevancy the comprehensive evaluation of debris flow can be carried out. This model is applied to analyze the degree of debris flow in the practical application. The application shows that the model is effective and practical.

Analysis of Cerebral Vascular Lesion Pools in Ischemic Stroke Based on the Analysis and the Prognostic Assessment of Risk Factors in Patients with Primary and Recurrent Ischemic Stroke

2016 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Oksana Mikitey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Recurrent Stroke ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Vascular Lesion ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Vascular Lesions ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

Stroke is an important medical and social problem, and stroke risk assessment tools have difficulty on the interaction of risk factors and the effects of certain risk factors with analysis by age, gender, race, because this information fully available to global risk assessment tools. In addition, these tools tend to be focused and usually do not include the entire range of possible factors contributing. The aim of the study was to conduct a comparison of brain vascular lesions pool with ischemic stroke (II) based predictive analysis and assessment of the main risk factors in patients with primary and recurrent ischemic stroke. Prognostically significant risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke is not effective antihypertensive therapy, multiple stenoses any one pool vascular brain, duration of hypertension (AH) over 5 years and regular smoking patients (p<0.001). In the initial localization in the second vertebrobasilar recurrent stroke was significantly (p<0.05) more developed in the same pool in women than in men; and the localization of the primary carotid AI in the pool, re-developed stroke often unreliable in the same pool in women than in men.

scholarly journals Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-J. Park ◽  
D.-S. Kim ◽  
D.-M. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Heritage Sites ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Site Period

Abstract. A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

scholarly journals Societal risk assessment of terminal and oil refinery unit

2021 ◽  
Vol 1052 (1) ◽  
pp. 012025
Author(s):  
AAB Dinariyana ◽  
KB Artana ◽  
DW Handani ◽  
FI Sarasvati ◽  
PW Aprilia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Societal Risk

scholarly journals Risk assessment of debris flow based on group decision making – A case study of Luanchuan County, Henan Province, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 04025
Author(s):  
Pengyu Chen ◽  
Ying Kong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Comprehensive Assessment ◽  
Material Sources

Luanchuan County, located in the mountains of Western Henan Province, is characterized by poor geological environment and abundant material sources and rainfalls. Debris flows have occurred many times in this county, and in some gully debris flows exhibit a large scale, requiring risk assessment. In the multi-factor comprehensive assessment methods for debris flow risk, it is really important to determine the weight of each factor since this affects the reliability of the assessment results. Given that the subjective weighting method can accurately reflect the importance of each factor, in order to improve the reliability of subjective weighting, the group decision making method is used to determine the weight of each factor. Group decision making is realized using the analytic hierarchy process and the data fusion algorithm. In this method, the expert combination weight is determined; on this basis, a model for comprehensive assessment of debris flow risk is established by the linear weighted sum method, and risk assessment is performed for gullies with medium to large-scale debris flows in the study area. The assessment results show that all debris flow gullies face minor to moderate risks. For gullies with high risk degree, it is suggested to timely clear material sources in channels and construct or reinforce retaining dams in order to prevent re-occurrence of debris flows.

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